our next hour, what a spectacular research note from carl weinberg on japan over the weekend. the next hour, weinberg of high egeland seat -- because economics about negative rate around the world. ♪ francine: welcome back. these are live pictures from washington, d.c. where of course we will have a new president in the next couple of months. today we have the iowa caucuses. there is a great article by philip dwyer that says the emotional economy might sway the republicans in iowa. what we call in europe, the greatest show on earth, how can you not be hooked on this? traditional republicans would have the american eagle to denote their patriotism, or perhaps a likeness of ronald reagan. the thep's signal when middle finger to express what his fans think about politics. ,e are not showing pictures that kind of encapsulates it. tom: francine, wait a minute. francine: we should start to get some results by 7:00 this evening, at least on the republican side. mr. trump is intensely liked but also intensely disliked. -27 according to gallup as opposed to mrs. clinton's minus four po

carl weinberg will join us.ring you gideon rose, of "foreign affairs magazine" on sluggish growth, including america. stay with us. ♪ tom: saudi arabia and russia oil productione had adequate january levels. this is the ramification of too much market supply. -- is indeterminate for a third janet yellen consider flood for longer. this is "bloomberg surveillance," we are live from new york. francine, a jumble this morning figuring out which way to go. jumble, followed till it what you want. in europe, we opened higher. and now, investors are trying to figure out what is going on with oil. more unknown been known. that means people are nervous. tom: we are trying to pick it up on a four-day workweek with his u.s. and it is messy out there. crystal clear the bloomberg first word news. warning from the president of south korea -- she says north korea will gain the capability to deploy nuclear .eapons the united nations may impose new emotions and sanctions on north korea. new satellite photos shows china island buil

we have a blistering story from carl weinberg from high frequency economics.ing in what he sees from world leaders. right now, a scathing first word news. vonnie: the fighting in syria could stop within a week. diplomats meeting in munich agreed on the target for a cease-fire in the civil war. it is a copper mise between russia and the u.s. john kerry says much more needs to be done to bring lasting peace to syria. coalition forces will still launch attacks against islamic state. humanitarian assistance will go in -- today stopped supplying water and power to the factory complex it shares with the north. both nations pulled out of the facility after the north's weapons test raised tensions. thelast four holdouts in occupation of the federal site in oregon were arrested today. the wildlife refuge is being checked for explosives before being reopened. and a millennium in the making will take place today. pope francis flew from rome to cuba to greet the patriarch of the russian orthodox church. they agreed to the meeting last week. it could lead to a healing in t

carl weinberg asks why are the finance ministers not meeting today.underscores the totally uncoordinated global response. and then thing thatting question of the continued strength in the u.s. job be hear ket that stays yellen's hand being more dovish. claims fell to 269 together with job's openings report, says the u.s. economy is nowhere near recession. that is what bank of tokyo writes. not today, no recession, nope, not with jobless claims at the 269. the stake in the heart is jobs losses. and the result of yellen's testimony yesterday, for most to rule out a march rate hike and yet forecast a hike in june, those are the shops right now looking for that june hike. we survived and 14 forecast a june hike. within reason for the reaction this morning could be that yellen left rate hikes on the table if the whicheconomy rebou and there is another worry out there. and that is one of the fixes nobody seems to like negative interest rates. simon, just one thing i want to bring to your attention. a pretty good rebound in the yield of the two year. i don't