i think that what carman has said is exactly right.there are people that are just getting confused. in the middltail end of the deet recession since 1929, you do not tighten the belt of that moment. that is incorrect. if you did that that is extremely dangerous. there is a zero connection to the current crisis. the downturn has affected the deficit but that is not the long run fiscal problem facing the country. the long run problem is the same one that has been facing us for the past 25 years, the aging of the population. >> in the long run. the lesson of the book is that there is a fiscal consequence to financial crisis. >> we are running a deficit for two to three years. >> if we think about the balance sheet, that stuff is not affecting the budget. if you look in the 10th a year, the deficit is forecast to be substantially worse than it was two years ago. that is the case because of the way we to the forecast, the boom times, the tenured deficit's coming better than expected. -- the 10-year deficits come in better than expected. the

i think that what carman has said is exactly right.there are people that are just getting confused. in the middltail end of the deet recession since 1929, you do not tighten the belt of that moment. that is incorrect. if you did that that is extremely dangerous. there is a zero connection to the current crisis. the downturn has affected the deficit but that is not the long run fiscal problem facing the country. the long run problem is the same one that has been facing us for the past 25 years, the aging of the population. >> in the long run. the lesson of the book is that there is a fiscal consequence to financial crisis. >> we are running a deficit for two to three years. >> if we think about the balance sheet, that stuff is not affecting the budget. if you look in the 10th a year, the deficit is forecast to be substantially worse than it was two years ago. that is the case because of the way we to the forecast, the boom times, the tenured deficit's coming better than expected . -- the 10-year deficits come in better than expected. th

i think that what carman has said is exactly right.there are people that are just getting confused. in the middltail end of the deet recession since 1929, you do not tighten the belt of that moment. that is incorrect. if you did that that is extremely dangerous. there is a zero connection to the current crisis. the long run problem face being the country is the same one that has been facing us the last 25 years. the aging of population and growth of healthcare costs. those are the dominant things that affect our fiscal position. >> in the long run. the lesson of carmen's book is there is a consequence. >> there is. we are running a deficit for two to three years. if you think of the stimulus plus balance sheet of fed, that stuff is not affecting the budget window is a 10-year window in the u.s. if you look in the 10th year, the deficit is substantially, is forecast to be substantially worse than it was two years ago. and if you ask why is that the case, part of that is the way we do the forecast, it has the feature that in boom times t