murphy, senior autos analyst at b of a securities sales on some of the big used car dealers like carmax, it was the mystery chart we just teased what has got you so bearish and i ask whether the destruction of automobiles in florida is going to change the calculus at all? >> well, tyler, thanks for having me. i think there's some really intriguing things going on in the auto industry in its shortage of supply both on the new vehicle side and that's resulted in shortages of supply on the used vehicle side that's a phenomenon that's likely to continue into '23 and '24 and '25, unless we see a very, very significant pickup in new vehicle sales, which is the feeder stock for the used videocassette market so what w seeing right now is trough level new vehicle sales for roughly three years almost we'll have a little bit of a recovery next year, at least that's what we're expecting but only a small recovery. the supply on the used vehicle side is going to stay relatively thin if you don't have a lot of supply to sell, and you're a company like carmax and carvana that only sells used vehicles,

only on good morning america sponsored by carmax.lse, and we begin with footballs goat heading towards a new pasture. pickleball tom brady says he's been looking for a way to extend his sports career for another few decades, and he's founded professional pickleball. brady was just named a part owner of a major league pickleball team. by the way, lebron james is already involved with a different team in the league is now expanding to 16 teams. you could say this is kind of a big deal. from pickleball to baseball. a goose was on the loose during the padres dodgers game last night, the crowd cheered the stadium officials chased out eventually captured the goose in the eighth inning. by the way, the padres won that game. next kraft, mac and cheese is trying to team up with mcdonald's to get some mac on the big math craft has launched a website. where's the mac dot com where fans can call on mcdonald's to put mac and cheese on the big mac. the site prompts users to contact mcdonald's about the idea. no response yet from the golden arches.

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and auto market, such a driver of inflation, new and used auto, starting to stall as well, at carmaxlast week, they suggested. that all of those trends will make their way into the central government data eventually, and that's going to give the fed some comfort to, again, not piv t pivot aggressively but release that feeling sooner than people thought just two weeks ago. >> adam and mona, thanks so much great to see you. >> thank you. >>> a check once more where the market stands. in terms of the comeback throughout the session we're up by just about one-third percent on the dow s&p 500 up by a quarter percent. nasdaq try to stay positive. mega cap trying to not provide clues about the market mike santelli returns with his analysis that's next. >>> throughout hispanic heritage month celebrating teenagers. here we have a senior research analyst. >> i grew up being bilingual learned english in school and privileged i've been able to travel and improve my language skills, and today i still struggle with some of it, but i think the idea of makeing -- you strength works more than people

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i looked at that carmax again. one more time they were hit, i think, much more rapidly and much more intensely than they could have even imagined, and i just think that is a metaphor for what happened in the third quarter. i think that activity that you talk about is obviously happening on the slowdown in terms of hiring that we're going to see over the next couple of months. >> yeah, i think somebody said carmax was the embodiment of all the headwinds that we've seen across industries in the past few weeks. interesting. meantime, guys, the praice of ol up sharply, helping boost the price back over 80 got those weak global pmis, ongoing chinese lockdowns. john kildoff, capital founding partner and cnbc contributor it seems like the most important thing is going to be whether these headlines on production potential cuts are actually going to come to fruition. will they? >> that's right, i think they will to a degree, carl certainly zand the saudis are leading the charge to reduce oil supplies it would appear to the

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jeans from the 18 eighties how much event this morning only on good morning america sponsored by carmax. the child care profession is in crisis, and there's new data to prove it. government numbers show there are 100,000 fewer childcare workers now than before the pandemic. that's creating a major challenge for providers who can't find staff and parents who could be out of look. the exodus of workers is blamed mostly on low pay the average wage for a child care workers about $13 per hour. meanwhile child health advocates are calling on president biden to declare a federal emergency over the state of children's mental health. six million children suffer from a d h d or anxiety, advocates say declaring an emergency would focus more resources on the problem. elon musk is now under federal investigation in connection with his attempt to buy twitter. word of the investigation came in a court filing by the company, which also accuses musk of withholding documents. it's unclear what specific action during musk's acquisition of twitter is now being investigated. actor cuba gooding jr will serve

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of september from 20 to 30%: fedex, nike, charter, adobe, throw advanced micro-devices, carnival, carmax, boeing, cesars, they're all higher today but they have a long way to go before they recover their 2022 losses. still, they're at a discount; right, 20 to 30% down in the month of september alone. should you wait it out for a lower low or is it time to weigh in. to our floor show and joining me on our brand new set, trader scott reddler and sarge gilford. great to have you here. >> the stewed joe looks fantastic. studio looks fantastic. looks wonderful. >> i like your green dress on the green day. >> should have wore on friday and we'd all know to come in long with the oversold bounce fueled by economic numbers. liz: look at inter-day pictures here, guys, and this is a pretty major move, especially considering that if we gain more than 936 points on the dow, we'll be in top ten point gains for the dow of all time. everybody needs to stay tuned if that happens. up 874 at the moment. but, serge, sorry, scott, age before beauty. >> wait a minute. >> the headlines that are giving us this

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with elon musk hopefully this afternoon >> we talked about the credit space after ally financial and carmax announce you think tesla begins to talk about this, too? >> i'm not sure they will. they might allude to it to a certain extent but i'm not sure it's going to get a whole lot of attention. i think most of the questions from analysts there may be some about the consumer and if the consumer slows down how that might impact demand. but most of the questions i believe are going to be centered around production and what's happening as they work on this next generation battery and battery cells and how the ramp up in the production of those cells are going. >> competition always a concern but is it really here? how quickly is it ramping up they recalled of course nearly every vehicle they produced, and does that hilith the challenges not just they but other traditional auto maker is going to have in terms of rolling out their evs? >> well, the competition is coming and you can see that in tesla's market share when we talk about motor intelligence which tracks all sales here in the u.s. it's

it's not all bad nike, meta, carmax, a lot of these companies talking about reduction in earnings expectations think we're going to be moving into a proper earnings market. >> if that's the case, jay, what are some of the top picks you have out there where is it attractive to be invested >> we've been saying all year long to focus on dividend stocks, particularly ones focused with u.s. operations we think earnings are going to be resilient for u.s. companies but not so much for international companies. so energy stocks, preferred stocks are great because they're senior to common, so you have very stable dividends. pipeline companies, utilities, large cap dividend stocks are the places to be you saw exxon preannounce positive earnings already this quarter. so obviously energy companies are going to have tremendous tailwinds. those kind of old economy non-tech boring companies emerging from the pandemic. >> all right jeff mills and jay hatfield thank you both very much for that we appreciate it let's check on what's happening now with futures because we have taken a leg lower. the dow's implied

whole q3 earnings thing, it's going to be dicy and if you look at things like nike and fedex and carmax who all reported late and actually had a look at august in their earnings reports, it was pretty ugy. as we go into these earnings it could be pretty interesting. we could see health care and that could be the calm before the storm. believe it or not energy is up to 11% of s&p 500 earnings they're taking it more and more as a positive foundational support for s&p earnings there could be really ugly things out there, too. i don't know what they are, so i'm not really sure how s&p 500 earnings are going to look for this third quarter, but i'm a little more trepidaceous than he is i'm battening down the hatches and buckling up my seat belt for the next three weeks >> earnings continue to go down and people beat obviously its lower estimates, but the estimates are pretty low right now. >> if i may, it's a classic -- it's a market of stocks. like we're going to get delta on wednesday. what do you think delta is going to say first off ed bastion is a guy who wears his emotion on his sleeves

fedex, nike, carmax, micron all disappointing. the higher costs are starting to eat into the operating margins operating margins is what really matters. how much of the profit are you keeping? we had a record of the second quarter of last year, 13.5% for the se&p 500 they're probably going to be in the low tens for the third quarter. we don't have an estimate yet. what that's telling us is it's go getting tougher to hold onto the profits here overall earnings estimates are in positive territory. the growth sectors are getting slashed. look at technology as a sector, for example. technology estimates -- i'm looking at the fourth quarter now. these were expected to be up nearly 9% on july 1st. it's down to 1%. that 1% is likely to go negative another big tech oriented sector, communication services july 1st it was up 2%. now down 9.2%. alphabet, meta as well as all of the communication companies that are out there, the disneys of the world. so that's a huge cut so you see there are estimates that are getting cut all over the place.

out of our coverage carmax and carvana are two that don't have the -- we've seen demand pull back without offsetting profitability from the new vehicle piece. in our opinion there's enough, between a few things, really pent-up demand consumers, rental car agencies prices were up last year biggest driver of that was rental car companies that auction buying cars over the next 12 months there's still a lot of pent up demand from those fleets to turn over and become younger again. there's enough demand for new vehicles that we're not going to to see that inventory build as much as people fear, especially with the ongoing supply chain issues whether it be out of asia and china, whether it be across europe with the energy crisis. i think there are still some global disruption that's are going to continue in the near term >> as you go through and you look at the car dealership stocks, are there one or two that you like markedly more than others >> that's a great question there are. i think broadly for the group we remain more positive but our favorites in the group has been asbury, abg what we h

nike, fedex, carmax, micron, all disappointing guidance the big thing here is the operating margins.a record high in the second quarter 13.5%. all-time record operating margin it's been coming down every quarter, almost since then i think q3, we don't have a q3 number, though i think you'll see that in the low tens or high nines historically, by the way, that is not far from an average number we've been unusually high in terms of operating margins that's the big issue the big thing here is overall earnings estimates are in positive territory, but the growth sectors are really getting hit hard i'll show you one example. here's the technology sector july 1st, the fourth quarter we had almost 9% earnings estimate growth today, 1%. that number is going to go negative in the next few weeks, is my estimation that's just one example. you can look at communication services any of the other growth sectors. they've been dramatically cut. it's energy that's holding up a lot of the s&p 500 as for where we are right now, let's just call it earnings cluelessness i have never seen a range of estima

we're not buying it back we're going to let it happen >> i guess one question would be, after carmax,nd after nike and after levi and now amd, is every print going to come with some kind of softer guidance >> i think that there's something wrong with e.verythin. levi, they're on tonight they've got department stores that are not doing that well everybody has something. there is one part of their business that is different from the way it was before, when it was, like, well, levi's stock has not been great, but at 24, it was selling terrifically. >> it's up 45, right >> now you buy t.j. maxx -- you buy tjx off that and buy all the levi's you want. i'll see you at tjx. >> i go there sometimes. >> you do shop there it's perfectly good. >> it's right next door. >> are you a member of ollie's army or not? it's not a paramilitary organization i know that's what you think >> i'm glad to hear that >> are you nervous on dell hp, intel, microsoft >> i'm not nervous they stink >> i mean, intel already had it. >> oh, yeah. >> very poor quarter >> they're fine. well, that's it then that's not the

in light of the carmax comment tear last week about macro factors, vehicle affordable, rising interestssues you're starting to see manifest within your business >> well, we're seeing more headwinds in the used car business, but what's been driving our record profits the last year or two has been new vehicle margins and double digit service growth so, we're still pretty much intact on the way we've been traveling. but it is a fact that the used car segment is more impacted by high interest rates, consumer confidence and things like that. so, we have to make some adjustments in our used car business to take into account these factors. >> new cars seem to be holding up those prices, is what you're telling me is there a point at which higher interest rates would begin to dent that demand or the math a little different than, say, used cars >> well, the big issue now is the order bank we have so, i'm sitting in the uk today where we announced at the end of the second quarter we have a new vehicle order bank of 17,000 units. we sell about 7,000 units a quarter. you can get a feel for that. sa

the carmax debacle the ford preannounce you expect them to circumvent all of that? >> no.to be hard, but i will say that he tells such a great story when he's on there. when he's on the call, it's really terrific. but even the semiconductors, the chip shortage is ending for the autos. there's going to be so many -- people are not going to be buying cars, david they're going to wait it out, because things have changed. rather radically >> well, the average price of a tesla is obviously gone up a lot. >> the other guys? >> yeah. and musk has discussed that. he said, it's sort of indicating, you can't keep doing this it's unsustainable >> by the way, used car prices now down 10% year on year. that's the biggest since 2013. >> finally happened. >> jim, i don't know if you saw this downgrade of best buy today on deflationary concerns evercore cuts to inline because comps could run negative we're already seeing it. and consumer electronics >> so, that negative piece on lowe's too i happen to like lowe's very much i think that when you look at best buy, it is now the cheapest i r