economics professor carmen reinhart argues that the 2008 economic collapse was not unique and solutions can be found from the past. politics and prose bookstore in washington d.c. hosts this hour-long event. speak the evening everyone. my name is conor moran. on behalf of the owners of politics and prose, welcome tonight. thank you for. we have a few housekeeping things before we get started. the first as if everyone would please silence return of their cell phones, we don't want carmen to be interrupted this evening, and that goes for carmen too you have it and also if you need books after the event they are located on the table in the front of the store by the front doors so you can head up there for your buck. because we have sis been with us this evening, we have a microphone in the center aisle here and we need you all to asking questions from the microphone, because it will be on tv and then finally, if you wouldn't mind helping us set up the chairs or fold up the chairs when we are done it helps us set up for the signing a lot more easily so thank you very much. alright, so we wo

[applause] >> carmen reinhart is a regular lecture at the international monetary fund and world bank. and the co-editor of the first global financial crisis of the 21st century. she's an economics professor at the university of maryland. for more information, visit umd.edu. .. brian: connie brock, "when hollywood had a king," is about what person? >> it's actually about two people. the king is lou wasserman and i say people because jewel son was the person who gave him and i say two people because jules stein was the person who h

so i know you all have had on the show carmen reinhart and ken rogoff who has written a book about the history of financial crises and it shows on average unemployment rises for four to five years after a financial crisis. that would take us to 2011 or 2012. the reason people think it will not raise for that long is, in fact, this aggressive response, this big stimulus package, the federal reserve move. nd so there is wide agreement, not unanimous but wide agreement that government policy has helped soften the downturn. the problem is at this point we're not going to get another huge stimulus package. we probably shouldn't get another huge stimulus package given the deficit fears that a lot of people have. so the responses the government will have at this point are muted. >> reporter: the president today had a targeted green job. >> the targeted green jobs which really isn't that big, right. we're talking about at most i think he said tens of thousands of jobs. and that is relative to what we've got in the economy right now. that is not going to fix things. i think we are going to see

i was on a panel with carmen reinhart and she made this argument. i think there's something in that. clearly there was an accounting dodge when they allowed them to mark all of these assets to market but mark-to-market was having disastrous effects because it starts a done red spiral because mark-to-market is short of capital so they have to sell and prices keep going down so you can get a downward spiral with mark-to-market. you need somewhere in between, and maybe a temporary extension of mark-to-market. my argument why i'm not quite so pessimistic of carmen rideout, paul krugman and these people is i think the government's recapitalization of the banking system is proving quite effective. it is not a pretty process to watch because of these guys the goddess into the mess are making big bonuses again but the government, they don't say out loud but the fed and the treasury, their entire policy is allowing banks to make big profits again so they can rebuild the capital ratios so they can again go out and lend to people so we don't get into the credi

we will here from austin gool y goolsby, and carmen reinhart. this is just under an hour. obama cil on economic adviser. this is just under one hour. >> now that the world has emerged from the deepest post-war recession what will the recovery look like in the u.s. and the rest of the world and what are the risks? the recovery so far has been pretty much propped up by government, by low interest rates and government stimulus. what happens as we try to exit that which we will probably begin some time in 2010. do we risk sovereign debt crisis? is dubai last week or the week before a wake-up call? what will asset markets do? we have had a tear on wall street this year. what happens next year? do we physical the risk of bubbles? what happens when they burst? those are the questions i want to talk about. we will talk a few minutes then open it up to you and we will end the morning with some predictions. some very concrete predictions from the two of you i hope. i have two terrific panelists. their bios are in your packet. austin goolsby is a member of president obama's council o

all right, so we would like to welcome, carmen reinhart, director for the university of economics atuniversity of maryland. her book is "this time is different." we've heard many comparisons and explanations for the current financial crisis as it relates to previous funds, it's the worst since 1982. it's the deepest sense of depression. its effects have yet to be fully calculated. and it might of those facts, rinard has put together a comprehensive look at global financial crisis. ..

we also have carmen reinhart. he is the director of the center for economics at the university of maryland. she has had a very illustrious career. she is one of the experts on crisis analysis. her work has been at the cutting aid for more than a decade. -- cutting edge for more than a decade. most of this work has been put together in a spectacular new book. i think it is one of the best performing academic books on amazon of all time. i will just read you one of the blurbs from the back of the book. "this is quite simply the best empirical investigation of financial crises ever published ." let's start with you, austan goolsbee. you are optimistic. every time i talked to, you are upbeat and optimistic. people like talking about recoveries in terms of letters. people talk about a be shaped recovery. where are you in terms of shape? what letter would you assign to the u.s. recovery? >> i have one of those greek letters in my mind. we have been up, down, sideways. i think the trend is clearly in the right direction.