christian, i am sure you heard what carmen reinhart was saying. talk to us about all the downgrades, and your concern about what is going to happen, particularly in asia over the course of the year. what is your main focus, your theme for what is driving this? christian: well, as you had mentioned, we do have a negative outlook for 2021 for asia-pacific sovereign. there is nothing new here. it does reflect the continuation of the stresses that we started seeing from last year. so indeed, the pandemic continues to drive our credit use for the region at large. currently we do have six negative outlooks, and they are more concentrated in emerging-market spaces. we also see a divergence in terms of how sustainably governments can continue to provide stimulus, so advanced economies are in much better shape. but frontier emerging markets are going to have a little bit more of a tougher time should certain risks shape up. now, we're still focused on the downside risk presented by the virus itself. indeed, as ms. reinhart mentioned, one year later on, we'

carmen reinhart wrote a paper this summer on the pandemic depression. is your physical world given -- physical world given the attempt to get through -- fiscal world given the attempt to get through this pandemic? vitor: a pandemic is a health crisis. the chief economist of the imf has emphasized we face a tremendous amount of uncertainty. it is a race between a mutating virus and the vaccines. the virus got the head start. in the north atlantic area, the cases have very strong in this period of fall. winter, it is crucial that the rollout of vaccines takes place very quickly. that is a global process. i would like to say that the virus is not defeated anywhere before it is defeated everywhere. ensuring a global access of vaccines at low cost is crucial to the pandemic. tom: dr. corey gave us -- tell us what you and your team have learned about the distribution of stimulus. are we providing fiscal stimulus to to many of the haves and not enough of the have-nots? vitor: there are important aspects, one is divergence across countries in terms of economic

carmen reinhart says it could take years for the world to recover. en: a rebound this year still leaves perhaps -- per capita income, income per person below where it was before the crisis. calling it a recovery is misleading. now, i am glad you brought up the issue that here we are a year later and we are still right now facing, you know, record infection rates. the longer this goes on, the more disruptions in terms of jobs, in terms of closures of businesses that can't really get back to anything resembling normality. so, when people hear the term financial crisis, the first thing they think of is a lot of drama -- i am not talking about that. i am very concerned the longer this goes on, the more strain on balance sheets follows individuals, firms, households of countries. it is a kabila to toll. -- cumul. cumulative toll. this does not start as a financial issue -- it continues to be a health crisis. it has elements that have morphed into classic balance sheet problems. haslinda: let's think a look at that because stockmarkets are rallying in many

tom: carmen reinhart, incredibly important.say this summer i the right hearts this summer, she drives forward the conversation, an important part of our year ahead. right now i want to tell you how the sausage is made here. when jonathan ferro leaves, lisa and i go, ok, let's talk about what we care about, and that is what we are going to do right now on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television worldwide. was it danielle -- a fancy french restaurant. left that and do what you do, which is redefine cuisine on the island have manhattan. that would be in the area of korean food, hugely acclaimed, no other way to put that. we are thrilled that -- what do you need from the mayor, from the government, from washington, from the governor? what do you need right now? >> to be honest, we need all the help we can get. most of the restaurants, we are far behind in rent, and i think that is the most critical. we don't have the income where the revenue to meet the rent that we promised our landlords to pay, 5, 6, 7, 8 years ago before the pa

look at national debt to gdp in the western world, it is also -- it is nuts to a point where carmen reinharte believed it and how is that sustainable longer-term? henrietta: longer-term, you need to stay in the slow environment in terms of rates for it to stay sustainable and that is what the central banks are trying to engineer in terms of their guidance going forward and certainly anchoring the short end of the curve and the european side, making sure the spreads between the various sovereigns don't get out of hand. that is going to be the balance you try to strike over the months to come and why the inflation question is an important one. it is important to note that if you look at the u.s. treasury yield and 10 year, that has already doubled since the lows we saw last summer, so we have seen a degree of normalization on the rate side and some of that has already happened from my perspective, and we are in a situation where there is a gravitational pull from the negative rates you have in europe on the japanese side, as well as. anna: that degree of rates normalization you reference, that