yvonne: that was the world vanke's -- world bank senior vice president carmen reinhart.are getting comments from the industry ministry spokesperson at a briefing this morning, talking about the recovery of china's industrial sector. it remains unbalanced and the economy to be back to normal after coven control. we do know they still seem to be sticking with the covid zero policy but they say china faces growing pressure in its industry output. also china reiterates to support new energy vehicle consumption. are seeing some of these ev stocks surging on good news as well. and the rc vallen to further investment on the first half. this coming on the back of growth worries and inflation worries leading to divergent policies between the fed and asia's major central banks and the pboc. let's discuss all this with kathleen hays and james maker. i will start with you about these lines from the officials. is there a sense that the support measures would have gotten the last 48 hours, is that enough to offset the weakness we are seeing in the economy from these lockdowns? james:

carmen reinhart detailed the issues. a lot of issues coming from the russian invasion of ukraine.concern about inflation and rising debt levels and food security. another initiative the world bank is talking about is the idea of another package that will go to the low and middle income countries. there is a lot of debt stress there. a long-running theme is protracted negotiations at the g20 level to get some agreement around restructuring of debt for those countries. perhaps with the world bank weighing in, there may be some new urgency on those talks. i would say a material downgrade for global growth even if it was expected by anyone's standards. >> james bullard floating the possibility of a 75 basis point hike. >> in that cycle, there was a 75 basis point hike at that point. i would not rule it out. >> how much of this is posturing? how much of it is a real -- is it a real possibility? >> i think mr. bullard seems to be ahead of the curve. he was pushing the 50 basis point idea before many others were. he made the point that the 75 basis point issue has happened before. it goe

for carmen reinhart. hart and her wonderful husband vincent reinhart, an essay that came out and made a splash and a lot of people said come on, the pandemic depression, the global economy will never be the same. they are like a piÑata on that. they took a lot of heat for that not gloom but caution of gauging where we would be back then two years from now. she looks like a genius now. jonathan: russia included. tom: right now joe mathieu. as you know, there can be one sentence in the morning research where you just stop. four days before thanksgiving after the election, the president of the united states will be 80 years old. everybody in your world knows that. what does it mean for the democrats, what does it mean for the republicans? >> the unspoken conversation that this president will not likely be running for another term although he did suggest pretty recently that he would be lucky to run against donald trump again. that's what you have to do. you can't come into the white house as a lame-duck presi

manus: carmen reinhart speaking to bloomberg after the institute lowered its estimate for global growth january it was 4.1%. will get worse? let's talk to the head of equity research. talking a blade -- to that -- they downgraded the growth to 4.2%. barclays, citing way it china. your rate of risk is rising. what is the biggest risk for you to the equity narrative as you look forward from here? anita: good morning. happy to be here. undoubtedly the biggest risk is inflation and tightening monetary policy. this is a direct impact on margins. you have these two forces acting on opposite margins. i think at the beginning of the year, we knew the economic growth was going to be downgraded. we were aware that epf numbers were a bit too optimistic. the inflation reality is not helping. dani: anita, good morning. if inflation is the biggest risk, you look at comments from board saying 75 basis point hike is on the tables of the not likely. justice language coming from the fed of doubling down, fighting inflation. is that a net positive for the equity market? anita: i don't think rates going be