i've known caroline connan for more than 10 years, she used to complain about the weather. is? at 2:00 in paris, looks at 7:00 at night. what is wrong with the french weather? caroline: the weather forecast does not help anxiety and voter turnout. if the weather improves on sunday, perhaps emmanuel macron and marine le pen and the 10 other candidates will manage to get some of their troops to vote on sunday. jonathan: caroline connan, an old friend of ours. thank you so much. tom: thank her for scouting out that ensemble for surveillance. jonathan: led to get through it. coverage sunday start at 7:00 in london, 2:00 in new york. in the middle of the night in hong kong. lisa: who are you trolling? jonathan: i have known carolyn for a long time. when we used to work in the london office she used to complain a lot about things in london, including the weather. i thought i would take the opportunity to convey to the french that they suffer from the same thing as the lush, which is -- as the english, which is bad weather. lisa: if you want to respond he is @ferrotv. jonathan: i a

tom: i am sorry, caroline connan in lisa's apartment. lisa: selling a five dollar plastic eiffel tower i will taped to my window. [laughter] tom: sunday night, france decides. jonathan: are you getting to fly out there? tom: i am hoping. jonathan: let's go to bramo's. lisa: i will have an eiffel tower. jonathan: tried to sell that to mrs. keene. lisa: i will provide the wine. ritika: up-to-date with news from around the world. and ukraine officials say a missile attack on a railway station filled with refugees has killed thousands of people and we did at least 300. the station is on the eastern flank of the territory held by ukrainian forces. the war is entering a new phase. it is likely ukraine has just weeks to acquire and deploy new weapons for fighting in the eastern part of the country. the european union has targeted russia's crucial energy revenues. the block agreed to ban russian pole imports and japan will follow. the biggest round of sanctions since russia invaded ukraine. the band also includes a ban on russian traps and ships

kailey: bloomberg's caroline connan, thank you. let's get more perspective on the challenges ahead. we are joined by christine the -- by christine verger, institute jacques delors vice president. christine: the victory of emmanuel macron is better than expected because the polls recently were indicating 55-45. he got less than in 2019, but still it is a good victory for him and a clear defeat for marine le pen. i think this is good news for the future of europe, as you said, as your correspondent in paris said, because in france, the president of the republic has very strong powers, especially in the field of european and international affairs. whatever the result of the parliament reelection in june is , i am sure that macron will be able in any case to continue with his european objectives. guy: what this -- what does this tell us about the state of politics in france? huge numbers of abstentions, and while it was a convincing win for macron, the right-wing is clearly gaining momentum. year after year, election after election. christine: for sure, but now this is a problem for mac

joining me is caroline connan, keeping track of the polls heading into the election.ittle bit of tightening, what have you been looking at? >> what we are seeing in the bond market, and the french stocks show these selections may not be completely priced in. if you look at the latest polls, the gap is narrowing between president emmanuel macron and the far right leader. in the first round, the lead is just about five points. what is even more worrying is the second round. two weeks later on april 24, they should micron would win by 53% of votes. 47%. but you have to remember there is a margin of error of that point. clearly the gap is narrowing between those two. initially the war in ukraine gave a boost to emmanuel macron. he benefited from the rally. he appeared dealing with the state of affairs of the political bickering in france. more recently, the war in ukraine fueled energy inflation. that is where marine le pen has emerged better at responding to the french concerns. back at the center of the campaign. and measures including each catching it for fuel, electri

tom: caroline connan , thank you so much. i look at this as the witness.ek yen, but look at the euro with a stronger micron -- macron move. lisa: this is the sense of relief because it was also the margin was wider, macron winning by a beer margin that people expected. it is an outlier chance. those people think there is not really a chance that marine le pen will be victorious, but that does seem to be a bigger chance then there has been in the past and frankly you are seeing that in the euro in a significant way. tom: this underscores our need to be in paris for the election. kailey: keep making the case, tom. didn't you just get back from paris? tom: strong euro, week yen, one of the moves in the 10 year, 2.76, up six basis points on the 10 year yield. the 10 year yield, negative 0.12. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> part of the reason why growth is going to be slower is that the fed is trying to slow things down. >> the fed seems to be a little more concerned about inflation then i would anticipate. >> there seems to be a concern about a slowdo

kriti: caroline connan, thank you for that reporting. for more on the risks weighing on the market, let's bring in the market strategist at j.p. morgan. you just heard her talk about the risks that come with marine le pen. she is focusing her strategy on targeting inflation at home. that is a theme we are seeing at home. talk about market sensitivity to inflation. if inflation is persistent, will markets bake that in or will they still be reactive to higher commodity prices? at what point does that sensitivity go away? >> markets have already been sensitive to it. you look at the move year to date in the 10-year treasury yields or government bond yields around the world and they have moved meaningfully higher as investors bet central banks will have to deal with inflation. interestingly, i think in some way, the market is perhaps failing to put enough emphasis on the fact higher energy price inflation is doing some tightening for the central banks, essentially taking money out of the pockets of consumers they would otherwise be spending

the coverage led by francine lacqua and caroline connan.watching the french elections, one example of the new autocracy worldwide, the strident moment that we live in, and that is joyce chang that jp morgan. joyce, give me the new scene at jp morgan. you wrote most of the 44 page later -- letter. what is the research theme in your shop the rest of the year? joyce: we've taken the first half down because of russia-ukraine and the high energy prices, down three percentage points. we are looking at the first energy crisis in the decarbonization era. jamie has been writing about a need for a marshall plan on how we can accelerate this transition, and sure energy security and get used to a world where we are in a place with more volatile cycles, higher inflation, higher treasury yields to come. there is a lot to watch in the commodities market. we are waiting to see. a lot of those pressures are still with us. tom: i look at the marshall plan of jp morgan and david folkers landau, the academic at deutsche bank saying the same thing, there will b

lisa: caroline connan told us what street she was on, and you were like i am not going to do that. does this really represent the new order versus the breaking point? people are saying that frankly, the war in ukraine had to do with a coalescing around nato. is that really an accurate rendition of where we are? tom: as jon would say, we have full team coverage. futures negative in paris. this is bloomberg. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. nalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. >> the fed will be pushing on because the labor market is overheated and inflation is too high. >> the fed has to move ahead to control inflation. >> it is really now for the market to catch up to the fed. >> the fed needs to step in and take some of the steam out of labor markets. >> the longer-term risks of this consumer led recession or slow down, whatever it may be, are building. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: good morning. a

caroline connan here. macron's victory should offer relief for investors worried a green le pen upset would rock markets. let's now go to andrea pepper rock. >> that's right. in the short-term you are likely to see a relief rally. we are seeing that in the euro this morning. i saw someone describe it as an emotional rebound which suggests that while it does remove a risk to markets in the short-term, the headwinds that investors have been dealing with for the last few months will eventually reassert themselves as key drivers for europe and global markets. we had a more hawkish ecb. we have the war in ukraine continuing to put pressure on commodity prices. so you have inflation. and most of all you have what is happening in the bond markets. as investors wonder if the fed has lost control of inflation. we are not talking about the timing of a rate rise now by the fed. we are talking about the magnitude. bond markets are increasingly boosting those longer-term inflation expectations. you had jerome powell la