peter, a glass half in with on chiming optimism. restores my faith. carolinewhat is the narrative of the spillover effect? looking at an economy that is completely focused on to consumer, 10% exposed manufacturing, why is there suddenly this building of concern that the manufacturing to in s will start effect? peter: without saying it's my view, the narrative as you put a company is at deciding whether to do some apital spending and it's looking at these weak numbers, looking at the trade conflicts and saying, maybe now is not the time, it's not that i'm sure things are going badly, but i a big ant to make investment right now -- caroline: does anyone want to make big investments for the year? peter: the capital spending is weak. that spill over? you don't buy the machine, the machine doesn't get made. he person who would have made it doesn't have a job obviously. the person who is hired to doesn't get machine hired. you start to see a tipover wages aren't rising as quickly. it's unlikely that employment up.es shoots that's sort of a lag, lagging wages aren'tt