. >> thanks for that carter, mike what is the trade out of this? >> when you talk about equal weight versus cape weighted indexes, what we have here and what carter was eluding to one is that you're heavily dependent on the winners, that's a good thing, too. whoever wins, as they go up they increase their weight to the index and the ones underperforming have a smaller and smaller impact what's interesting here, you look at something like rent a center, that's the same weight as amazon in this index. hard to imagine. something like 15 auto parts or car dealerships in this. you have to understand given the economic environment we're in, some of the big durable good exposure has to be in jeopardy looking at it from a volatility perspective, we see it's fallen and we see volatility come in the broad markets but we often see increases in volatility after labor day. so looking ahead to that, rather than involve myself in a spread, i was looking out to the october 2nd weekly, those are trading for about $1.85 when i was looking in you may wonder why i chos

. >> thanks for that, carter mike, what is the trade out of this >> so it's interesting when you're talking about equal weight which is cap weighted indices and that's the situation we have here, one of the downsides of a cap-weighted index is that you're heavily dependent on the winners of course that's also one of the good things too. whoever wins as they go up, they increase their weight to the index and of course the ones who are underperforming have a smaller and smaller impact what's interesting here is, you take a look at something like rent-a-center, that's the same weight as amazon in this particular index that's hard to imagine there's something like 15 autoparts or car dealerships in this you have to understand that, of course, given the economic environment we're in, some of these big durable goods exposures have to be in significant jeopardy now, if you're taking a look through a volatility perspective, we've started to see volatility in the broad markets come in very much here too. we often do see increases in volatility after we get through labor day. looking ahead to that ra

joining the conversation all morning long, lee carter, mike huckby and mitch roschelle.stories that we're watching this morning. white house officials and democrats set to meet again today to discuss another covid-19 stimulus bill. cheryl casone has more. cheryl. cheryl: we'll see where this goes, dagen. weekend talks failed to produce meaningful progress. mark meadows said we have a long way to go and he's not optimistic about reaching a solution any time soon. democrats want the extra $600 in unemployment benefits which ran out last week extended. republicans want to reduce the amount to $200 a week and base any additional assistance on a percentage of lost income. white house coronavirus advisor dr. deborah birx warns the u.s. is in a new phase in its fight against coronavirus. saying the vie you russ is now -- virus is now more widespread than when it first took hold of the nation, as california becomes the first state to top half a million cases, leading the nation in new infections. florida seeing the lowest daily deaths in nearly three weeks with 62 new deaths rep

think this risk here are skewed to the downside especially when you couple them with carter's chart and i think miken my opinion the right trade chart because ewj has not broken below the support level that carter pointed out so a debit spread like this is the right to strategy to play for that potential breakout. it's only risking less than 2% of the etf value with a 3 to 1 risk/reward ratio. >> all right we may have just closed out the biggest week of earnings season but it's far from over yet and gearing up to report next week but tony says there's one name on deck that may lose the magic on the results so, tony, what are you looking at >> i'm looking at disney going into earnings next week. i think that the risks are here skewed to the downside for disney next week and my views were predominantl driven by the fact that we know that there's a significant decline from theme park revenue. we know that the media and studio division is going to be relatively soft and then the disney plus side and the only part of this business that is growing but the numbers for q2 not looked particularly attractive

mike trade? >> i really like this particular trade. first of all, i really like carter's chart setup his chart pattern with the continuation pattern projecting up 10 times on that long time chart. if you apply that pattern to a three month chart, you'll see the exact same pattern it rallied another $700 to the current level we're currently trading at so i really like this as a highlight of how technical analysis is a tool that investors can use when there's no price history on a stock like tesla to know exactly when it's going to pause its current rally. if you look at mike's trade, from my perspective it is the perfect trade for this type of trade setup from a technical analysis perspective where you're expecting the stock to trade sideways, perhaps a little higher, perhaps a little lower because i feel so strongly about the technical levels here, i would actually get a little bit more aggressive on the strike prices i know why mike chose a 50-point credit spread. it's really difficult to bet against tesla continuing its rise having that type of buffer makes a lot of sen

the xle retail bouncing higher since that trade, so mike, and then we'll get to carter, what now?will say that we do often see an up tick in volatility in december, and all of the reasons i was highlighting with the qqq put spread, i'm inclined to stay with we didn't risk a great deal. they were quite cheap at the time, and they are cheaper now, so i'm going to stay in them. >> what about you, carter? he's staying. >> for sure. i mean, we've had big moves out of big names like walmart and target and still xrt is hunch over the past week we don't think there's any ammo to go higher. >> good stuff on the xrt, watching retail, up next, your tweets and final call. stick around i'm searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like i'm just wasting time. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. so it's like my streaming service. well except now you're binge learning. s

. >> mike: sara carter, congressman isa, thank you both for being with us. my next guest says kamala opens the democrats and joe biden into a bit of danger. here to tell us how, doug schoen, democrat pollster and former advisor to president clinton and mike bloomberg. doug, she has called joe biden a segregationist, she said she agrees with his sexual harassment, but it's a primary win last night that you say offers another warning sign. i want you to explain that. >> sure. the squad has been uniformly successful, governor, in their primaries. representative omar was facing a very well-funded candidate -- also a self-described progressive, who outraised her in the fourth quarter, i'm sorry, the second quarter, and she won by i think over 15 points. representative to label won handily, and aoc was renominatee quarters of the vote. so it's not just what your guests are saying are the positions of the democratic party, that'll be debated, governor, but it is incontrovertible that the far left has had great success getting reelected in house and also electing a

mike khouw, what's the trade now on tesla >> it's interesting the technical setup carter is talking about. if you take a look at how options are currently priced, they're not exactly expecting a really dormant period. the implied volatility on tesla in the options market is about 80%. so if we think about it, that means the options market is implying the stock could be higher or lower by 20% in a month. a little over 30% in a quarter and, you know, somewhere in the neighborhood, over a 12-month period, that it could swing 50, 60% or so. the options market is expecting some pretty big moves after all of this while the technical setup might be suggesting some of this run is over. one of the this hinges -- one of the things this does, when options premiums get this expensive, it is a nice opportunity to try to sell some premium. we're talking about pretty chunky options prices here i was looking at the 2300 call spread for a stock that is over $2,000 as of today's closing prices, a spread that's only $50 wide is re relatively small. selling that call spread would collect about $13.50 in prem

would like to take this bullish bet and not take the downside risk of geopolitical risks >> mike, your take on carter'sn >> first of all, for people who don't own the stock already, that's actually probably a pretty good way to play it i'm really thinking about this more for those that already do own the stock, thinking about an alternative to that long stock position going into earnings if that's the case, this does reduce your risk does it reduce that risk considerably no, it reduces that risk sw somewhat modestly. let's ignore that geopolitical risk for a second. if you take a look at trade structures like this, over the course of the reported earnings, probably outperforms a long equity-only position by about 10 to 15% over the entire course of the history there. so, you know, not selling that put obviously reduces your risk, but it also means something has to happen. if you sell the put and collect some premium, if nothing happens, you'll end up working out already. so this is more a judgment for each individual trader to decide how much risk they're willing to take carter >> i think it gets down

mike trade? >> so i really like this particular trade first of all, i really like carter's chart setup projecting up. but if you apply it, you'll see the same pattern during june, tesla traded to the 1750 level consolidated to another level we're currently trading at i like this as a high light of how technical analysis is an investment people can use. there's no indication when it's going to pause its current rally. if you look at mike's trade, it's, from my perspective, a perfect trade from a technical analysis perspective where you're expecting the stock to trade sideways, perhaps a little lower, perhaps a little higher because i feel so strongly about the technical levels here, i would get more aggressive on the strike prices. know why mike chose a $250 price. having that type of buffer makes a lot of sense, but, again, because i feel so strongly about the technical levels, i would be getting more aggressive. i would like at the 2100, 2150 credit spread that will collect around $19.30, which is 4% of the width it does have a little bit of a lower probability for a profit but it has a lower ri

. >> here is lee carter, great to have you. a key line delivered by miketake a listen. >> last week joe biden said democracy is on the ballot. and the truth is our economic recovery is on about. law and order are on the ballot. so are things far more fundamental and foundational to our country. the choice in this election is whether america remains america. >> republican gave him in a. independents to be, democrats in. democrats not surprising. a lot of people question could he deliver, could he energize, could he really be that complement to donald trump he was seen as in 2016 and he delivered last night, the republican base and independents. jillian: things that republicans and independentss liked hearing what christine nomad to say when talking about our american heros. >> history chooses heroes for the time in which they live. and our founding madison was one of the chosen. the nation's very existence was challenged was lincoln's turned but there is another american hero to be recognized and that is the common american. this is who donald trump is figh

mike church, others like that. richard: people started against him in february and march. we were discussing new hampshire, illinois, other states. carteras unemployed and he had the stamina, one of the great things working for him was he was not identified as being one of the left or right. both of these seem to have diminished in the years since 1972. stephen: the democratic party was uniquely nonideological campaign. they will go into the general election with a much greater quotient, you don't feel the death wish that has divided the party. richard: i have a feeling that in much of this, the fact that the war is over means the cement that held together the group is gone. foundsolutions are being and emphasized. now,u are hard right even things like the prudential's and nomination, the effort to achieve the senate is impressive. stephen: carter virtually offered the american people absolution. he was saying vietnam, watergate, you did to that, the politicians did. you are good even if your politicians were not good. elect me and i will give you what you deserve. we could breathe a sigh of relief. side,d: on the republican governor re

carter? >> you heard the word incredible twice from tony. it is an incredible up trend but you also heard from mike that the street is bullish 34 buys only two sells of those 34 analysts their price target 12 months from now is $415 the stock is at 462. are they bullish the street's just had this thing wrong. >> check out optionsaction.cbs.com. >>> coming up, you've got options and you're getting even more of them professor khouw explains why new product slices could grow the pie for everyone >>> plus, calling all options action fans. reach into your pocket and tweet us your question @options action if it's nice, we'll answer it on air. ♪ ♪ ♪ you may be learning about, medicare and supplemental insurance. medicare is great, but it doesn't cover everything ...only about 80% of your part b medicare costs. a medicare supplement insurance plan may help cover some of the rest. learn how an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company might be the right choice for you. a free decision guide is a great place to start. call today to request yours. so what makes an

. >> carter, your take on either the fed, tony's trade, the financials, the yield curve, all of it. >> all of the above. mikeas just talking about -- there is no basis between 62 basis points on the year, 78, 48, 98 rates are basically at zero f yif you will yes, there's been a steepening i think morgan stanley is just a better operator in the market. i'd compare it to goldman sachs. year to date morgan up 3.5%, goldman down $9.7. that's its direct comp it's the only bank that's up on the year all the other financials that are up are things like black rock, insurance companies or moody's. the technicals look great. it is a lot of tension importantly here, though, this is a stock that even if and as it breaks out and gets back to its january high which was at 57.50, its all-time high is still long ago there's much work to be done for financials in general. >> yeah. i mean, we didn't even mention the fact that wells fargo is down 54% in a year, maybe the most important stock out there the fed, of course, is a big piece of the puzzle but it's still just a piece of the puzzle by the way, we're also just 66 days,

be mainly after but indiana senator mike braun doesn't expect that effort to pass another coronavirus relief bill will pay off any time soon. i think we're so far carter in reviewing too close to the election. it would appear, he's right after a 25 minute phone call thursday following 3 weeks of silence, house speaker nancy pelosi said she and white house chief of staff mark meadows made no headway on another round of talks. they're trying anything before that cold. pelosi said democrats offered to cut a trillion dollars from their plan. if the republicans would add that same amount to there's we have said to them we are willing to meet you in the middle earlier this week senate majority leader mitch mcconnell admitted something needs to happen the popular ppp program needs replenished run. >>we need to do something about extending unemployment. there's a need and i hope the needle overcome the the bizarre to play games before the election, but brown says there's plenty of money still unspent from the cares act. >>several of us were conservative, fiscally responsible senators and along the cra every person he says that route would get help to people f

mike church, others like that. richard: yes, because the people who started against him in february and march, whom we were discussing in new hampshire, illinois, other states left us long since. now carternemployed, and if he had the stamina, one of the great things working for him was that he was a centrist. he was not identified as being one of the govern left or wallace right. both of these seem to have diminished in the years since 1972. stephen: yes, yes. the democratic party was a uniquely nonideological campaign. the party will go into the general election with a much greater quotient of unity. you don't feel the death wish that so has divided the party during the years of vietnam. richard: i have a feeling that in much of this, the very fact that the war is over means the cement that held together the new left, new politics group is gone. other solutions are being found that wallace emphasized. because you are quite right that even now, your effort, the platform, the rules, the credentials and nomination, the effort to achieve unity in the senate is impressive. stephen: carter virtually offered the american people absolution. he was saying vietnam, watergate, you didn't do that.

mike tobin, thank yo thank you. in oshkosh, where the president will be addressing folks and a little less than an hour from now. lee carterith this right now. you are a darn good pollster. we do know that the polls are narrowing a little bit. as the president within four points. don't clasp onto any poll, but i do follow a trend. it wasn't that long ago that he was trailing by double digits in some of the polls. they are all over the map. i am beginning to wonder whether the trend or the tide could be turning. your thoughts? >> if it does appear that the trend is shifting some. the cnn poll seems to be an outlier at this point, but it is a huge change from just a few weeks ago, so that president is much, much closer. that is where the selection is going to be won and lost. i think what we also need to be focused on is how little people know about joe biden. only a third of voters feel like they know what a joe biden presidency is going to look like, so this week is very, very important for him. he has to make a case on what he is going to do for americans. people are concerned about what he is going to do for the american

carter. >> good morning. great to see you this morning. ainsley: there were strong speeches last night of the vice president mike pence. he came out. was the best speech he has ever given. this is what he has said about all the chaos in the streets. for all the folks at home lee has the dials and asks what they think. yellow line independents. refused line republicans and the blue line democrats. watch this. >> president trump and i will always support the right of americans to peaceful protest. the rioting and looting is not peaceful protest. last week joe biden didn't say one word about the violence and chaos engulfing cities across this country. so let me be clear, the violence must stop. >> yes. >> whether this minneapolis, portland, or kenosha. ainsley: you know, dems really focused on the coronavirus. republicans this week are really focusing on that law and order and all the violence, lee. it looks like it's resonating. >> it does look like it's resonating. a lot of questions were out there about whether vice president pence was going to be able to deliver inner genic exciting speech last night. he did just that republicans

moments ago vice president mike pence reacted telling me biden democratic party have been taken over by radical left democratic donor, alan petricoff is here find out why fund cartern triple digits decline down 161 points, nasdaq down 52 s&p 500 lower by 20 nasdaq yesterday closed at another record high, 35th of the year dow s&p 5 higher yesterday 4:00 on wall street nasdaq up 119 points better than 1%, tesla charges ahead the stock drives past 2,000 dollars a share, ahead of a stock split with recent gains tesla has a larger market value, than walmart, and walmart has many, many more in revenue, plus kids in covid-19 how healthy thirn could be spreading the virus "mornings with maria" is live right now. >> global markets have worsened ft 100 down 40 points cac quarante paris down 42 redaction next lower 101 recovery in france losing steam purchasing managers indices for august below perceptions, french mountain macron german chancellor angela merkel are warning against a new round of lockdowns even as coronavirus cases spiking economy falters with indices. >> green across the board markets a cue from wall street hong kong korea trading off one and a third percent

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