in short, caterpillar has been a great earner.ar worse than we would have thought four or five years ago. and this is a big but. caterpillar stock already reflected a lot of the negatives coming into 2016. it was hard to come up with anything in december that made feel like the stock deserved to go higher. worse, one month ago the company appeared, just appeared, that's important, to slash the first quarter earnings estimates. immediately the bears took aim at cat pilar and said it was a disaster. cat has never given any first quarter guidance so there was nothing to cut. the real thing was the full year guidance. that's what they were doing. given the most people thought it was an impossibility, this revelation of an estimate calmed investors into believing the worst is over. not that there was an estimate cut. wrong takeaway! since then two thing have happened. the dollar is peaked against many major currencies and secondly, the measure of the movement of the heavy dry goods you needed a cat mover to get it out of the ground. it

you are taking a look at caterpillar. joe: why do we care about caterpillar earnings? i have shows exactly why you care about caterpillar. caterpillar going back to 2006, the yellow line, versus the green line, msci emerging markets index. look how well that lines up. things werewarning not going to be that great. of miningr does a lot and construction stuff. caterpillar is beautiful. it is all encompass there. scarlet: it holds pretty well. as much as a bellwether caterpillar is, technology is the most influential sector in the u.s. stock market, and there has been annexed it is out of technology. especially out of the etf. is the moneynel flowing into and out of the etf. that is signaling significant outflows since the middle of last year. the share price is white, and techpider is an purple, stocks have outperformed since 2013, but investors have been pulling money out of it a lot of the software companies -- are pulling money out. a lot of the software companies have yet to report. joe: that shows how there is this growing trend. people are losing interest in the s

when caterpillar said three times china was getting better for them.ar has seen a gain in the recent improvement commodity prices. it is much more positive. even in france. in the southeast and southwest. it is the most encouraging. we know that china is increasingly spending more money on demand. one way they're doing it is by spending on health care. we know they went to sell and how about health care? do you know it was up 14% in china. that is driven by mission machines. some very strong chinese orders for automated control. sxheen he's aircraft sales increased by double digits because of strong flight hours in china. but this gem took my breath away. if there were any reason to surprise me in the past quarter, it was europe. so you're not hearing that. right? kin, they reported year over year. the king penn was adamant that this would be a good one. we expect market conditions to worsen further. he said a full scale cash crisis. north america has had an 80% drop. the first down 50%. russian and china building drilling less. why? they can't pay the

i want to turne: to your trade for the day on caterpillar.orrelation between caterpillar and oil. i made a chart of it. make this kind of correlation chart. the horizonooked at and looked at the correlation between iquitos. it has really come back. last year.ath the correlation is not quite 121 but he gets close directionally, a lot of days. i guess what is your outlook for oil and what is your outlook for caterpillar? >> absolutely. ,oing back over the past year up until st. patrick's day, almost a one-to-one correlation. 93% correlated. we have seen oil flatline and caterpillar shoot up 10% from that day. they correlation breakdown, earnings coming out of the end of next week. for a caterpillar to come back for oil and i am not super bowl bullish on oil given the move. i do a trade on buying the regular may selling next week, volatility.s a 55 earnings, i'm buying a 72 and the bearish stance i can get for find 9.7. much clearedyou so still ahead, more on the trading session and that's the excerpt warning earnings next week. we will talk abo

good to be here. >> big reversal in caterpillar today despite ending the day lower. slashing the year's guidance. the ceo of cater bill lar had this to say about their forecasts earlier today on "squawk box." obviously that wasn't doug. all the good stuff that hbo -- basically he was talking about the forecast. that's the point -- oh, we've got it. >> we did tweak our forecast for the full year down about $1 billion, about 2%. and that's primarily around rail and marine and a little bit more negative price. we looked at that hard. our construction equipment business we held. i think that's the first time we've held that flat in a long time year on year. i'm happy with that. >> guy? we hear this guy make forecasts a lot. >> i'm watching it this morning. i'm watching the whole -- >> go on. >> there's no way he's going to say anything about a bottoming process. because he literally said it for the last two and a half, three years, about a number of different things. sure enough, no sooner do i say that, he said, we're close to a bottom, or bottoming. at a certain point

as has caterpillar are.ne that i would be most optimistic about is mcdonald's. >> agree. >> yeah, you know, what you got to go with the mcdonald's. it's had a nice breakout here. i don't know if it will move 4% on earnings, but on a pull back, that would be a name that you would look at. >> big fans of mike khouw here. mike, thank you. >> "options action" friday, 5:30. >> thank you. >> sorry, go ahead. oh, i did it all right. >> we'll have the final trade. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ it's more than a nit's reliabl

. >>> and caterpillar getting a new upgrade. >> and twitter after the bell.ind out if josh brown is sticking with the struggling social media stock. it is all coming up on "the halftime" report. patient.. no problem. it's a pretty huge file. done. sorry for the wait. that was quick. as part of our research, i also compared lab results with notes about prior treatments, then cross referenced it with thousands of medical journals. and i get the benefit of much more data, and a lot more time to plan the best treatments. i stay focused 24/7 and never sleep. you sound like a lot of medical students i know. they found out who's been who? cking into our network. guess. i don't know, some kids in a basement? you watch too many movies. who? a small business in china. a business? they work nine to five. they take lunch hours. like a job? like a job. we tracked them. how did we do that? we have some new guys defending our network. new guys? well, they're not that new. they've been defending things for a long time. [ digital typewriting ] it's not just security. it's def

caterpillar cut the guidance down. but we are not out of the woods. david: there is a pattern for caterpillar overtime. dean curnutt: they have not done the best at managing investor expectations. but the options market was handicapped and about that level. it is not genetically different from option prices vonnie:. vonnie:how are using -- how are you using underlying commodities? dean curnutt: after the big scare in q1, we have been bullish on crude specifically, and the framework is really to translate crude into what it means for other asset classes. two things important about crude , there are 70 industrial companies linked to its performance, but also a source of financial stability. it is up here in the 40's, a lot better than $25 and falling fast. exactly junk bond. -- it takes away junk-bond market. matt: releasing provisions or raising provisions for the emissions scandal at 15.2 billion euros they did see sales down by 5% on 2015 sales, and it is raising its provision, so it is going to lose money as well. th

general electric, caterpillar, and honeywell. at ge, which is in the process of shedding assets from its ge capital unit, adjusted profit etched out expectations but there was concern its organic revenue fell. caterpillar missed on the bottom line but its revenue beat forecasts. honeywell results were better than expected. all those shares of all three finished to the downside. but as bob a. >> sapisani tells us, it might t be the results that matter right now. might be the tone. >> reporter: three big industrials reported today and there's a subtle but important change in the tone from cautious to mildly upbeat. general electric reaffirmed their full year guidance. ceo jeff immelt blunt in calling the oil and gas business challenging but said the aviation business was seeing sustained strength and health care was rebounding and we were seeing improvements in our business in china overall concluding there's plenty of business out there to achieve our goals. that's more positive than last quarter. even companies that have had a to

lauren: caterpillar scaling back production and staff in response to falling demand, the construction equipmentmaker says it will close 5 plants in the us and cut 820 jobs. incentive caterpillar says it plans to trim its workforce by 10,000 positions the close or consolidate 24 billion through 2018. the company said it had eliminated 5300 positions so far. the plant closings just announced will be in north carolina, south carolina, florida and mississippi. lea: here is look at the headlines in today's edition of the wall street journal. earnings on pace for the third straight decline, slow mobile growth and the energy slump, earnings of s&p 500 companies. comcast reflects shifting bets on comcast intense pursuit of dreamworks animation, highlights how much change across the five years since it bought universal and atlantic city, america's worst rated town, has so little money left it could miss the $1.8 million bond payment that is due on sunday. lea: after sweeping wins into the's primaries and giving his first major policy speech can donald trump finally get backing from the gop est

caterpillar. general electric. very big names. they are all down. is this a retreat on the part of the dust real america. >> look at caterpillar. caterpillar, for four years, has been called a proxy or for america. 28% equine. this company has consistently been in freefall. my argument has always been how can you make a case for this great recovery when caterpillar has suffered as it has. giving no indication of things turning around dramatically anytime soon. stuart: 40 straight quarters. >> 40 straight quarters. they have been on a consistent downturn. stuart: here is a story for you. regulators proposing new rules to limit pay of people on wall street. [laughter] >> one industry is making too much money. this is a very popular belief right now. people on wall street make too much money. i am not saying that they do not come but this is just the governments way of seizing control of pay. and initiating these socialist type controls to maintain more control. my thought is that if you do not like how much a ceo with making, then do not buy the stock

manus: shares of caterpillar are falling today after a lowered sales forecast, caterpillar saying the commodities rally could run out of steam because of excess supplies. it is 90 minutes into the u.s. trading day. it is time to see how the markets are faring. julie hyman is standing by. we do not often get to say hello. how are you? very well, manus. good to talk to you. it has been getting worse in the market ever since the open, in particular because of the technology earnings. the dow is perhaps having the most rheumatic turnaround in this early session. at one time he was up as much as 44 points. you can see 44 points at the high of the session. now it is down 54. it was down more than 70 at one point, so it has a race all of the gains and then some. this also has to do with earnings. atther you are looking microsoft, which came in below estimates, and sales in the current quarter will fall below projection. importantly, the acquisition of vc europe may be delayed. that is something a lot of investors have been banking on. caterpillar is coming out below estimates as well. is the

he blames the bumper caterpillar crop on the mild winter.o, definitely. >> we haven't had that amount of cold weather for licensing enough to kill the eggs in the soil so we are just getting more and more and more of them each year. >> good thing? experts say caterpillars don't sting or bite and they will eventually fly away, but for people living in this part of the texas say they are leaving behind a big mess. >> stay in texas, stay in texas. >> leave them there. >> yeah. >> coming up one candidate who has what it takes to win the presidential election, a cord to go new poll results just released this morning. >>> meanwhile it is in the just about money, three on your side with what you need to do now you to retire early, pat. >>> jim, did you know it is philly wine week? here we are, john williams, from urban farmer, we have got some food, wine, we will pair them together and teach you about all that coming up next. ♪ we buy any car dot com ♪ ♪ we buy any car dot com ♪ ♪ any any any any ♪ did you know trading in your car at a dealer could

these are the caterpillars we're talking about. if you can see them, they are all over the place here on the peninsula. they are in the car, on the car and the tree, which can be an especially difficult problem, especially for those tree that's are already under duress. they look harmless enough, pretty even to some people. but on the peninsula especially, the oak worm is on the attack. >> pests will impact trees at are stressed. >> reporter: david nelson is an arborist with the davey tree company. he says oak worms can completely defoal yat a live oak, especially problematic for one that's endured four years of drought. >> it's a caterpillar basically in its lar val stage that defoal yat trees. they chew leaves. that's how they grow. >> reporter: jamie has a number of beautiful oaks at her home, tree that's survived an oak worm infestation a number of years ago. >> it took the leaves off the trees. it caused them to look like they were dying. and fortunately they managed to heal themselves without any kind of medication. >> report

and on the corporate front caterpillar, mcdonald's, general electric, just some of the names before the bell. >> it is early on. but still the idea that we could be seeing at least an earnings story play out where we continue to see that earnings recession play out. a sales recession for s&p 500 companies. so a big move. and a number of big stock movers. microsoft. shares under pressure after falling short of estimates for the first time in nearly two years. the cloud business couldn't make up for a slowing pc market. still satya nadella sounding upbeat. >> the cloud is being built to optimize and grow. with our results this quarter it remains clear we are one of the two leaders in this market. >> microsoft shares have gained 31% over the past year. they are up 16% from their february lows. a big move here for a tech giant. >> and alphabet shares also under pressure after the google parent posted an earnings miss. lappeden dowdy joins us more with that move. >> google reported under $7.50 a share on revenue of $20.2 billion. google is capitalizing on the global shift to mobile. and this

caterpillar of course has been in a tough industry since beginning of the year.he last couple of years to be honest with you but maintaining that 77 cents quarterly dividend, liz. liz: maintaining is better than cutting what we saw with national oil well varco. ashley, thank you very much. >> sure. liz: in a bearish report the imf dissed the global economy. chief christine lagarde calling it the new mediocre. they cut the forecast. is it time to reject the normal? our guest says look at emerging markets. he is the portfolio manager at neuberger berman global markets. you say reject what christine lagarde says. why? >> look at statements coming out of the imf people have been depond dent about emerging markets, particularly china, and i think that is probably too despond end. if you look at china you don't fully believe the 7% number, looking at 6.5. but that is one of the brighter spots globally in the global funk of growth. liz: liz: if you have to pick country, emerging market names you think are real opportunity for our viewers watching right now, what are the

obsessed with caterpillar.s and in a positive way we fine that interesting where we can follow it and explore in the movie. >> these are not just people dressing up and doing stuff. there is more than that, correct. >> yeah, yeah. >> they dress up, they wear the packs, they will go, and remodel cars to look like the s01 but they are going out there and doing things in their community, children's event, children's hospitals to try to spread joy to people who are in need of it. >> people always want a connection with the movie. this is a way of bonding with your family. explain that. >> well, it is something i shared with my grandfather as a kid and got to meet my first real ghost buster, and the car and it cemented me into the whole world and now 30 years later i'm sharing witt my daughter, with, you know, it is so much excitement. it is fun, seeing her have that same light in her eye that i'm sure my grandfather saw he had in me when i was watching with him. >> this is impressive. first of all, explain the pack

i went over that caterpillar call, at one point generally positive -- this is a quote from the call, europe is much more positive. even in france. they used that term, even in france. the market went down badly at 4:00 a.m. because there were some numbers out of germany saying the economy's weaker in april. no kidding, the dollar got weaker in april. and the dollar is so important on a head-to-head basis. and phillip's number disappointing. >> and microsoft, google, heading into facebook and apple this week. >> well, i think they've derisked facebook to some degree. i don't think facebook's going to be -- you know, it's very interesting there was a piece this morning by the sun king, bob peck over at suntrust talking about snapchat out of nowhere taking share. michael wolf, fantastic piece this morning in usa today, a must-read his thesis is tv is the new tv. but talking about the kind of ads that these guys get and how they're not the kind of ads, but google and facebook are getting the lion's share. seemed to be also a backhanded on twitter. >> there's a look. twitter's also report

the caterpillar stuff is the mining business killing caterpillar. dagen: one quote from the new york times interview with president obama. i will paraphrase, our economic reform if you look back historically to countries that come out of wrenching financial crises. by that measure we probably managed this better than any other large economy on earth in modern history. >> there was no fiscal policy, it was all monetary policy. look what happened to the fed. it was not the government that did this. maria: i don't understand how he can say that and defend the regulatory environment. he is the worst president ever to not see 3-d -- 3% gdp growth. >> what he did is he took jobs and put them in the government all and not the private sector. maria: we will tell you about highs for the year when we come back, stay with us. when it comes to small business, she's in the know. so strap yourselves in for action flo! small business edition. oh, no! i'm up to my neck in operating costs! i'll save the day! for plumbers and bakers and scapers of lawn, she's got cus

let's move on to caterpillar. sales declined. but the ceo came on air this morning and said overall i think we're close to the bottom. that's a positive comment. this company has seen declining revenue since 2012. there was honeywell. it beat on the top and bottom line. the growth accelerated overall in the aerospace area. they raised the end of the 2016 guidance and organic sales guidance. 2% it was 1% in the first quarter. that was an improvement. look, let's look at the prices right now. big question, why are they down? generally had positive commentary. i think the problem is, these stocks have run up and the market has become a bit more expensive. just take a look at some of the big names here. caterpillar is trading at 21 times forward earnings. ge is over 20, honeywell, 17. guys we were talking about this earlier in the week this was going to be a problem. you've got the run up in the anticipation of these companies might have a somewhat more positive tone. now, of course, the question is, where do we go from here given th

if that is the case caterpillar should do very well.tco you don't have to say anything about costco. my only complaint with costco is finding a parking spot. more of a conservative idea but a stock that people should have. >> my husband loves to go to costco. i love to have him go to costco. i don't go. he loves it and overbuys and has a good time. >> we should go together. >> we'll see you. >>> we have online dating horror story. a 40-year-old nurse and mother of three goes on a date to a baseball game and turns up dead. the latest on the suspect in that case. >>> and a plane crash unlike any other. the story behind the dangling plane and how everyone happens to be okay. tired of working for peanuts? well what if i told you that peanuts can work for you? that's right. i'm talking full time delivery of 7 grams of protein and 6 essential nutrients. ever see a peanut take a day off? i don't think so. harness the hardworking power of the peanut. when you didn't know we had hundreds of thousands of places to stay all over the world. or that

this is a business with more to do than we thought caterpillar has, but i'm not ready yet to pull the trigger. bob in new jersey. >> caller: thank you for taking my call. >> of course. >> caller: buy, sell or hold. h.e.i. >> i look like gold and have been recommending using rand gold. add gold stocks are moving, but when the 2k3w08d goes back, which it does occasionally, i need you in the most established play. >> caller: i'm in irvine, california, but originally from el long island. i watch you with premarket and "mad money" in the afternoon. >> thank you. >> caller: basically before and after i play golf. i have a question. i've been retired since january 2015. i'm focused primary on income investments, and -- blackstone. >> blackstone has the variable -- look, remember, they companies need ipos, they need ipos. they could do the numbers we think. that said, i've been recommending blackstone consistently, because i happen to think steve schwartzman is a very smart man and he has unbelievable talent working for him. mark in vermont. >> caller: it's great up here in burlington. what d

caterpillar upgraded to buy at vertical research partners. >> stephanie also likes this.in the halftime portfolio competition and i don't want to be a bear on every stock we talk about today but i'm bearish on this one and here's why. if you go to caterpillar's website they'll produce what the retail sales figures are from their network and every region for the past several months has been negative and not just a little negative. down double digits so if there's a turn around at work it hasn't happened yet. it's in the future and i need to see that turnaround before i invest in the stock. >> can i correct you? not past several months. past several years. >> you're absolutely right. >> you've not been bearish on everything. you own the retailers which are down. >> i feel like all the stocks getting thrown my way i have been negative on. >> john is winning out. >> okay. good. coming up on the program, our very own sarah travels far and wide to keep track of his investments. he just returned from london where he got an insiders look at his favorite auto stocks. what we learn

he used senator cruz. >> he used at any time next morning. >> he can be the caterpillar, he can be the butterfly, he can pivot. the rest of the group at some point -- look if donald trump is going to be the nominee or be the one pretty darn close to 1237, isn't it time to start saying let's get behind him so we don't hand this thing over to hillary clinton. they spend so much money to take trump down how about turning that to hillary. >> the hard thing is it's hard to do that if that very same campaign has been trashing you. it's like he's been calling people names and you got to get behind him. you made a good point. he done have a name for kasich. he calls lying ted but he doesn't have a name for john. designee won't come up for a name with john. >> wait he did make fun. >> i'm telling you, when you go -- you're at the debates likes the fox news one in detroit there's no animosity. john kasich would make a fantastic president. he absolutely would. he has the skill set and experience all together. he's a huge asset in the republican party and i don't thing you want to burn that. there

you have american airlines, caterpillar, general electric, honeywell, kimberly clark and mcdonald's. i think americans are going to have a very good quarter, i hope it does matter because the airlines are cheap. caterpillar could be a tough quart, given that the chinese economy seems to have hit bottom maybe people won't care. i don't blame anyone for taking profits ahead of the quarter. we've been buying general electric. as this company has transformed itself from a finance company to a digital industrial although it's not on bernie sanders' buy list. honeywell, honeywell is honeywell meaning it will be good. i would say good enough to move the stock up, saying it's fallen a couple points from 114 where it is now. kimberly clark got shelled last time when they reported and we brought on the ceo, listened to the case in favor and told you to buy it hand over fist. it worked. i wonder if the same thing could happen again certainly at a higher level. finally there's mcdonald's. the ceo has done a masterful job fixing the place and it has resonated with the stock. i think there's a lot

. >>> and caterpillar is scaling back the production and the workforce, and the construction worker saidy will close five plants, and eliminate more than 800 positions. this is is part of the strategy outline last year to cut 10,000 positions by 2018. that is the news update, and obviously, a victim of the commodity falling prices, and back to you, scottie. >> and sue, a stock that is much in play, because earlier in the week, it was upgraded to the buy which is extraordinary rare if you are looking at the coverage, and only two buy ratings, steve, on caterpillar, and that is because they have one added this week. >> i am surprised that there are not more buy ratings, because the company is consistent a thapd have missed every quarter for the last four year, and that con sis t consistency is worth something. so they are cutting the production out, and cutting the jobs as more people are liking the stock, because they belief that the cycle is turning. to me, it is a charmed life that it has never achieved the valuation which is below $60, and so i am not going near it. >> and the stock is

then we will get a lot of numbers from bread and butter companies like mcdonald's, coca-cola, and caterpillar and there we will see the impact of the rather strong greene -- greenback and then we'll get numbers from netflix that didn't look so shiny, the initial reaction dropped 12%. reporter: thank you very much for the latest figures. to argentina now. argentina is back on international markets after 15 year absence. the move comes after new president agreed to terms with bondholders who have rejected the payment terms of the country's debt restructuring, nicknamed the holdout. argentina offered $10 billion to $15 billion in bonds. interest was strong and orders said to be running at 55 billion dollars soon after opening. the proceeds will be used to help pay off the bonds. the question, to leave the e.u. or stay, the question millions of britons will be faced with heading to the polls this june. the country's finance minister has joined the likes of prime minister david cameron in campaigning for staying in the european union. >> the least disruptive brexit option for britain would see the

but what's new here and what happens nowhere else in the world, occurs once that caterpillar develops into the butterfly stage - these butterflies actually trick the ants and steal their liquid food coming out of the bamboo. ants normally eat butterflies, not share a meal with them. these butterflies likely 'smell' like ant to these ants, but even more unique - they look like them, too. the wings of the butterfly have the pattern of an ant hidden within, only revealed when we found them in the wild. to top it off, we caught a butterfly actually taking food right out of the mouth of an ant, something also never documented before. with this behavior recorded, i knew i wasn't coming home empty handed. science like this helps us understand the wild world around us, and the importance of protecting individual species which may influence another. after one last jungle stroll into the night i had all but forgotten about not finding silkhenge the night before, when miles from where it should be, this happened... well this is completely unexpected. end of my trip here in the peruvian amazon, i

. >> you could see that in caterpillar. that was a long-term downtrend. into earnings if you decide to play it for a bullish play. you want to do it be a risk-limiting way. that's why we use the call spread. >> got a question, send us a tweet. and for everything options action, check out our website. while you're there, sign up for our cool newsletter. it's like the "vanity fair" of options. here's what you want to do. >>> here's what's coming up next. ♪ >> that sums up what happened to microsoft. why some traders see a rebound coming. >>> plus, stocks have gone up forever. >> forever ever, forever ever. >> forever. and next week marks a major milestone for the bull market. we'll tell you what it is when "options action" returns. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see

so we're going to get illinois tool works on wednesday, we'll get caterpillar and general electric onday. it's the same story. if the narrative is just slightly more positive than expected or even less bad, it could propel the industrials higher. we've seen nice moves up in a number of these names. double digits in caterpillar, illinois works and honeywell, already ge flat this year on hopes things would be moving. meantime, look at the leadership board this month. i'm picking some of the dow. drug stocks have done pretty well, surprisingly strong after a weak first quarter. financials like jpmorgan have been strong. so remember, and it's important to remember why we've rallied in the last two months. what has propelled the markets forward? there's four major factors, reductions in volatility four areas, number one, fed dovishness put a floor under the market, number two is weaker dollar, number three is oil off the lows and number four is china quieter. the missing ingredient has been the earnings picture. so the markets believe at this point that maybe the earnings estimates have be

now the industrials' turn, honeywell and caterpillar and illinois tool works and general electric all reports this week. these big industrials are great barometers of the global markets because they make a lot of things and sell in dozens of countries. if there's any growth or the lack of it they're going to see it. any sort of mildly positive commentary from this group, anything that indicates the growth prospects for the global economy is even a little better than it was a few months ago, could propel the industrials slightly higher and then push the markets into record territory. we're very close. the s&p is less than 2% from an historic high. nobody's expecting too much. modest organic growth, some expression of the global economy better than it was a few months ago. i know it sounds pretty modest and it is. but in a world of 2% to 2.5% gdp growth in the u.s. and flat elsewhere, that's what investments look like. for "nightly business report," i'm bob pisani at the new yor >>> despite the comeback in the market our guest tonight says there are still more downside risks than upside

on the down side, goldman sachs and caterpillar.our attention to sarepta therapeutics. the fda panel meets to discuss whether to speed the approval of this stock. "power lunch" will be right back. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade. i have an orc-o-gram we for an "owen."e. that's me. ♪ you should hire stacy drew. ♪ ♪ she wants to change the world with you. ♪ ♪ she can program jet engines to talk and such. ♪ ♪ her biggest weakness is she cares too much. ♪ thank you. my friend really wants a job at ge. mine too. ♪ i'm a wise elf from a far off shire. ♪ and sanjay patel is who you should hire. ♪ thank you. seriously though, stacy went to a great school and she's really loyal. you should give her a shot. sanjay's a team player and uh.

manus: shares of caterpillar are falling

. >> you can see that in caterpillar. that was another situation long-term downtrend. obviously it's had a big sharp bounce off the bottom. going into earnings, if you decided to play it for a bullish play, you've got your head taken off, quite plainly. obviously if you want to do this, do it in a risk limiting way. that's why we use the call spread, 1.5% to make a bullish bet. >> a question out there. send us a tweet and for everything options action, check out our website. while you're there, you can sign up for our super cool newsletter. it's like the "vanity fair" of options. you want to check it out. >>> here's what's coming up next. >>> that pretty much sums up what happened to microsoft today. we'll tell you why some traders saw the rebound coming. >>> stocks have gone up forever. forever. and next week marks a major milestone for the bull market. we'll tell you what it is when "options action" returns. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading pla

just talked to caterpillar or one of those votes. the other part is trickier.isruption in of the world. yet tragedy in the middle east, concerns around eastern europe and for lack of a better word, lack of concern in the south china sea area. that tends to force money out. but that money is coming to the u.s. in terms of into treasuries. it sort of negates what the fed does. the long and is going to stay flat because we have a safe haven. is that a good thing? see inthey would like to , it would bed helpful to the u.s. economy if short rates were up somewhat so that the smaller banks, particularly the savings banks and local banks could attract savings deposits and have that money there to lend to local area businesses. have beenadvisors saying for two and a half or three years that this is the problem. not a problem for the little bank -- for the big banks, but it's a big problem for the little banks. it would be good to have money more freely available to small local business organizations. that would be a very good thing. iey went up one time and what is cau

raising numbers caterpillar, raising number ford, for those of these health care numbers. our market is completely upside down today. having a little sleep problem lately. i saw when japan did what they did. these guys are morons. they're not just in pajamas, they're in feet pajamas. >> jim, the idea of not being able to compete against a company that has a lower tax rate? for st. jude. >> i don't want to say does it because dan starks told me it does, the ceo. dan is really straight forward. dan is one of these guys, he's david to the goliath of medtronic david. david, do you get david? >> sorry, i got it. and we haven't mentioned facebook yet. we're criminally negligent. >> we haven't mentioned facebook, we have to mention dreamworks is halted. we are expected to see a deal today and i think everybody will assume we are going to see a deal from our parent company announcing the acquisition of dreamworks. that is expected momentarily, one would anticipate prior to the open. from what i'm hearing the price will be higher given the stock is halted, higher than had been anti

look at caterpillar. don't forget, they have a giant elevator business. >> they do. and honeywell. >> yeah. >> every smart guy so to speak will say short cat, short cat. they're buried alive under caterpillar and they're doing a jimmy hoffa thing with those guys, they're under a stadium somewhere. >>> cat's now 20 bucks higher than the january 20th low this year. >> yeah. pound sand cat haters. >> dow's up 135. don't go away. i'm vern, the orange money retirement rabbit from voya. vern from voya? yep, vern from voya. why are you orange? that's a little weird. really? that's the weird part in this scenario? look, orange money represents the money you put away for retirement. save a little here and there, and over time, your money could multiply. see? ah, ok. so, why are you orange? funny. see how voya can help you get organized at voya.com. >>> time for trading with cramer. >> they're talking fitbit. they're doing fwhaernt better t amazon. i like it and have been so wrong. i continue to think it's a health thing. i think the company doesn't tell its story well enough.

in the meantime, komatsu is killing caterpillar. look at what is going on with mexico.ico is taking our businesses, not only for to valuation, but for other problems. politicians don't know what the hell they are doing. so look. we are going to change things, and that is big money, those begins. i have carl icahn and other big businessman. we used political hacks, third-rate political slobs, to negotiate with the smartest people in china, the smartest people in japan, and we have all the cards. people don't realize it. without this big pot of money that is being drained out of your pocket -- and by the way, i have to do this, because i just thought i would have to, but i want to redo some statistics. so where am i talking about? 20% of the manufacturing jobs have left since 2000. you know or that is? wisconsin -- know where that is? wisconsin. wisconsin chronically legs the rest of the united states in job creation. here's what happened with scott walker, and i could only say this because i couldn't ask for his endorsement. what i did to that poor guy, man. [laughter] [

is trump a caterpillar waiting to turn into a butterfly? is he hyde trying to find jekyl, is he bruce, turning into kaitlyn? i think it's going to look like this. oh, that is not fun. but if i can get serious for a moment, if indeed we are seeing the birth of a new donald what becomes of the old one? yes, it may be time to mourn the passing of bad donald, bad donald was a feisty character who will be remembered for calling people names, making fun of a p.o.w., mocking a man's wife, but let's remember the times he tweeted strangers at midnight, what was he on? and talking about his private parts at a debate? god, he was awesome. oh, you made us laugh and cry bad donald. so tonight we say good-bye, we'll miss you old buddy. in lieu of flowers, the family asks that you vote for donald and for god's sake, give him the nomination. >> laura, you are a fan of bad boys. it's shown in a string of destructive relationships. will the gentler donald win you over? >> no, no, we want the bad boy donald. somebody compared him to, if he becomes president a

lot of it news and the dow has turned higher at this point despite eight -- despite a tough as caterpillar, general electric, microsoft. the nasdaq is taking the biggest tumble of the three major averages. it looks like energy is the best major group at this point. because of financials as well, this is pulling stocks back up. you look at what is going on with energy, oil prices are up by nearly 2%. southwestern energy, one of the energynergies -- companies to report its stock, has gone up. within the financials, we have also had earning it news, and that includes suntrust and eat tree financial as well, 3.5% -- e-tree financial at 3.5%. david: all right, some gains, but what about the tech stock? have: tech stocks do not an insurmountable problem, but still, it is a pretty tough slog. microsoft, as i mentioned, projections,sts' and visa, you don't think of it as text, it is coming out with earnings, but also saying its earnings have been delayed so that could create problems on the shares. andot facebook, amazon, facebook is a bear market down 20% and there is also concerns from the googl

they didn't have caterpillar tractors because i only want to use caterpillar, if you want to know theth, or john deere. so would you help mr. trump build his great wall with mexico? >> well, i would put it this way. if you're asking would i help, the answer is no. would -- if he wants to buy -- or the government wants to buy john deere equipment, we'd love to have that happen. but we're -- it's a free market enterprise. we'll let them buy whoever they believe is the best qualified, best equipment to help them do whatever. >> what about his point on manufacturing? the numbers today show he has a point when he talks about the loss of manufacturing jobs in america. is the reason because china, mexico and japan are ripping us off? >> i think that would be a little too short of an answer. there's a lot of things that go into our job situation. there's a lot of policies that have very long-term impacts. the more that we can change those policies that are favorable for manufacturing, that clearly is a positive. that's what the council on competitiveness tries to emphasize. i don't think solv

that's caterpillar's wheelhouse. they do have a lot of coal and oil, tar sands.construction coming back, and we'll find out from claus today, we'll find out about construction. and how bearish it really is i don't want to short caterpillar. they can pay that dividend. i don't want to short them. that's a sucker play. >> on that note, dow is higher. let's get to bob pisani on the floor. >> very nice start to the week here. all ten sectors of the s&p starting on the upside. jim mentioning china. a nice session overnight. shanghai up nicely, almost 2%. they had lower than expected inflation data. that's sort of fueled speculation that beijing may continue with the stimulus policies, loose monetary policies. europe generally on the upside. italian banks flying. there's been talk, was it last week and over the weekend, of an italian t.a.r.p., these central bank officials have been meeting to possibly discuss creating a fund to purchase bank shares. that's essentially an italian t.a.r.p. you can see how much they're up today. that's helping. here in the u.s., all ten s

i went over caterpillar this weekend.f you get any pickup, if you think there's any pickup in asia, you have to buy caterpillar even though it doesn't look like you should, or cummins. you have to buy those. nobody wants to buy them but the end markets are doing better. oil, 38 bucks. 26 was the bottom. remember we used to fret every minute about oil? now it's fret some oil, not worry about others. >> tesla once again rising in the premarket. elon musk over the weekend treating that weekend preorders for the mod 38 have hit 276,000 as of the end of saturday. that's about $11 billion worth of sales. the car goes for 35,000, though it options at 42,000. some people tweeting their confirmation order as they made that $1,000 deposit. >> i have to echo phil lebeau. he was on vacation, everybody was bothering him about it. this is a phenomenon. i find that the phenomena crosses all bounds. so you go -- let's say you're going on interstate 95. you stop at a gas station. there they are. your tesla chargers. this is becoming integ

i mean that's why you're seeing caterpillar and mcdonald's and others doing so well. kind of feel like we need that sector to do well for us to feel good because it was such a leader for the last several years and to have them absent from the marketplace, it's really surprising. i was encouraged to see a broad based rally. >> it's helped toss people out of the space. with the financials here, we moved to that part of it. it's not like morgan stanley was doing a lot. we have morgan stanley. what do you think the broad takeaway? >> the money sector was a little more than the morgan trading. i bet goldman will be better than morgan stanley, but that's not really where you want to be in terms of the crux of dpn chals. >> they're doing very well on loan growth and expense cuts so that's where you'll see better performance. really good numbers. >> i think the big new york banks told you they were oversold. people didn't own enough of them. they're not really having a terrible time but they're just barely kind of earning their cost of capital, barely if they're lucky, book v