sources indicate that he is leaning toward catherine russell. is he smart to wait until after the midterms or is he making a mistake? >> the democrats did not want all of the candidates to be out on the senate battleground, but doing it this way, i do not think he will get anyone confirmed in the lame-duck unless he nominates john ashcroft. >> i do not think that is going to happen. >> he will have to take chances on a new senate. if it is a republican senate, it could be a protracted battle. very much the consensus as i understand it after the midterms -- >> i will take credit for taking her from the beginning. if she is the pick it will be a big play. >> i bet you a diet mountain dew he pick someone else. >> i will bet you a sixpack because i have a very high tolerance for diet mountain dew . [laughter] coming up, the pollster that helped president obama win two elections. we will ask if he agrees disagrees, next. ♪ >> our guest tonight -- here are three things you need to know about him. he was once a new york reporter for the new york elite