another cbi print. then we get a payrolls report september 2 as well. with that in mind, think about the long road to september. cpi print week, another payrolls report and cpi print. what we look at the time we get to september? >> a lot more volatility. i think that is one thing we can say for sure. looking at the front end of the markets, with the two year yield has done, we price in falsely that powell have it. it obvious it was not a pivot. we would have to wait to get more inflation data and that is ultimately what will drive markets. i think the one thing we can rely upon going forward is more of these moves. i think obviously next week, if we get another strong cpi print -- and let's be sure to look at the month over month print -- because there are interesting dynamics going on with basic facts, thinking back to this time last year. we had some easier base of facts. we might see the yearly rates pickup on core inflation. we have not seen the peak in core inflation on a year-over-year basis yet,

it leads to the sort of criticism that people at the cbi quoted — criticism that people at the cbi quotedng, there is this vacuum — quoted as saying, there is this vacuum at_ quoted as saying, there is this vacuum at the heart of government. i have been_ vacuum at the heart of government. i have been speaking to civil servants over the _ have been speaking to civil servants over the last few weeks and they are essentially— over the last few weeks and they are essentially getting ready for the new prime minister and looking at the plans— new prime minister and looking at the plans they have both got to make sure that _ the plans they have both got to make sure that when the person comes in on day— sure that when the person comes in on day one. — sure that when the person comes in on day one, they can hit the ground running _ on day one, they can hit the ground running fairly hard. but we still have _ running fairly hard. but we still have four— running fairly hard. but we still have four weeks to go of this contest — have four weeks to go of this contest and there will be a periodm _ conte

it leads to the sort of criticism that people at the cbi guoted — criticism that people at the cbi quotedve been— vacuum at the heart of government. i have been speaking to civil servants over the _ have been speaking to civil servants over the last few weeks and they are essentially— over the last few weeks and they are essentially getting ready for the new prime minister and looking at the plans— new prime minister and looking at the plans they have both got to make sure that _ the plans they have both got to make sure that when the person comes in on day— sure that when the person comes in on day one. — sure that when the person comes in on day one, they can hit the ground running _ on day one, they can hit the ground running fairly hard. but we still have _ running fairly hard. but we still have four— running fairly hard. but we still have four weeks to go of this contest — have four weeks to go of this contest and there will be a periodm _ contest and there will be a period- - -— contest and there will be a teriod... , ., ., period... gosh, is it that long? it is hard to — period...

we have cbi as mentioned. pce at the end of the month, and another cpi coming up in september. before the fed meets. a lot of inflation data to come, and that's what you want to keep your eye on, going forward. trying to figure out what the fed will do. >> will be knocking on your door. will make sense of it all. thank you as always. let's continue this conversation. we are with a chief economist. you have a new slogan for the economy. stronger for longer. walk us through how you would characterize this. >> first of all, it is time to shelve the recession narrative. at least for the next three to six months. i think growth is accelerating pretty significantly in the third quarter. nominal spending and nominal -- nominal income is never a problem. real growth has been squeezed in the first half of the a buy price shock, and that has faded. i'm not suggesting that inflation is going down, i don't think that's the case. i think it will plateau at 4%. that is largely because of what is happening in the labor market rid between now and then, we will see a pretty significant slowdown

we all know the bond market trying to be predictive on how the annual year on year cbi so outside thatommodity but [indiscernible] it looks difficult to get a 3% -- shery: if we have more spending on the physical side of things, the u.s. democrats spending -- passing the bill, do you factor that in as extra spending now or do you price it in for the future? some analysts talking about a boost for ev makers and perhaps more taxpayers for big tech giants. do you think of the political angles to the markets right now? >> yes. as the bill goes to the house, there is a transition component to it and a tax aggregate going forward but higher rates are not conducive to risk assets the way rates are going and in aggregate there is a higher cost for the years ahead addressing this difficult transition for economies [indiscernible] it is an additional cost for corporate america but required. that's why i look from an aggregate perspective. it has to be done regardless. haidi: you are still constructive when it comes to commodity and energy. this church just chart shows why. we have seen so much p

it will be fun —— for the director of the cbi is and you can expect a lively session.the bbc suggests the uk is likely to pause its rollout of the monkeypox vaccine, as stocks run out in parts of the country. the uk health security agency is expected to hold back doses to give to people who were already exposed to the virus. around 27,000 people in england have been vaccinated against the disease. the labour leader sir keir starmer, has been outlining labour's latest — and most comprehensive — response to the cost of living crisis. labour's plan would freeze the energy cap in britain at the current level ofjust under £2,000, for most customers — for the next six months. we are due to in just over a week's time bills will be if the cap is due to be lifted. our political correspondent alex forsyth reports from exeter on labour's plans. pricey for what is to come. plenty are already struggling with prices shooting up. sisters karen and debbie have worked at this shopping exeter 22 goals and are determined to stay positive that they are concerned. to stay positive that the

let's go back to the main story of the day, cbi, ppi and bond market reaction. we had breaking news of how the latest bond market auction has been done. the 30-year bonds drawing 6% overall. pretty strong indirect bid of more than 70%. i'm interested to dig into this. we have a great story out today talking about the difference in viewpoints coming from bond investors and stock investors. talk about the breaking news of the sales we had. has that shown demand for treasuries at the moment? >> the 10-year auction was pretty good yesterday. the 30-year seems ok. what this story today in the market thinking we may have a recession, most want yields about 3% saying if are going into a recession i will be happy to have bought these bonds now. they are thinking forward to the fed speakers making clear they have to keep going. even if they step down the pace of hikes, they will not turn around quickly. how long can the economy take that, right? the stock market is doing great but the bond market is more suspect of the downturn coming. caroline: we seal the yields pushin

manus: we are waiting for the cbi to come up tomorrow in the u.s.will see you later on in the show. it was sizzling, now it has fizzled. this is that gas chart, i love this. gas is down for 50 days in a row. dani: it is starting to creep into inflation expectations. we talked about the ny fed earlier in the show. goldman sachs saying not only are they expecting slowing inflation but disinflation because since that june peak gasoline prices have fallen 20%. but we have talked to executives as well who say the worst is over when it comes to some of the supply chain kinks. manus: may be that opens bandwidth in terms of where the yields go, in terms of disinflation and jobs data is a lag, we can debate that. the election is underway in kenya. we are live in nairobi with the team, jennifer along with all of driving the bus into the election in nairobi. this is bloomberg. ♪ when i was younger, i may have did some stupid things even committed some crimes even got shot. but i'm not a criminal. i work for youth advocate programs - yap. i was tumani's advocat

there is medical cbi, ppi, given it is a quick -- give us a quick explanation of what they do and do not tell us. >> what these measures are doing and their monthly survey of prices across the economy is trying to measure the actual transaction prices that are occurring for medical care products and services. we are including all of the costs including in the price paid any reimbursement for different types of medical care. looking at the combination of the amount paid by the insurer, and the out-of-pocket costs are by the consumer. we look at the relative costs for medicare, medical services over time while controlling for the market basket or amex of different services that are being provided across different categories of care -- or a mix of different services that are been provided across different categories of care. excluding durable and nondurable products. what they are attempting to do is trying to show relative to other goods in the economy how our prices are changing and what this does for us with a few caveats is a perspective on how expensive it is for imf care and it we

index is up .40% we do have cbi sent theiment coi today lowest since may of 2020 they are worried about the outlook in the uk. we have banks reacting well to the move in gilt cac in france is up 1% germany is good performance up 1.4% we had positive news on the gas storage front. the german economy minister stating they are up to 83% gas storage problems brian, you have been folgs following this closely they are on track or looking like they are on track to get to that 90% target. some marginal positive news. bayer is doing well on the back of those positive gas comments one last thing, cpi out of germany at 1:00 p.m. is a major mover information markets. >> they have gotten lucky with the weather. look at the weather in germany, joumanna, every day it has been low to mid-70s speaking fahrenheit where it is not that hot or not that cool. they had some rain lately. let's hope the weather continues to cooperate joumanna bercetche, thank you. >>> let's get to the top corporate stories states dide including tesla and t-shirts and unionization silvana henao has that now. >> brian, good morni

. >> at cbi, there is a gunman here. he says he has a bomb. remember me. stop hate. a little painful to remember. a little painful to remember. >> reporter: around 8:00 that night the negotiations deteriorated and the gunman grew agitated. >> do something. okay? >> his demeanor changed. it was much more demanding, with deadlines, ultimatums. that's when i authorized our hostage rescue team to execute a deliberate hostage rescue. >> reporter: and at the exact same moment -- >> for the first time all day he didn't have his hand on the trigger. so i told the guys to run. >> we ran and we went through that door as fast as we could. >> reporter: and what you're seeing is that escape. the colleyville crisis was just one in an alarming rise of anti-semitic attacks across the united states. >> the threat is serious. >> reporter: you're the deputy director of the fbi. the fact you thought it was important enough to sit down to talk about anti-semitism in america, what does that say about the threat? >> the threat level against the jewish community is historic. and over the la

we saw the sense of relief in markets when we got cbi tipping over and when the market heard the fedbalanced approach on both the economy and the inflation paired with the market did not hear enough of is the way inflation over the next two years is going to come down to the fed's target only enough to get enough slowing growth. as a result, we think the peak rates of the market priced it about right but cuts the market has in place for a lot of next year, that is not consistent with our forecast. kailey: on that point, the market thinks the fed is going to get to the terminal rate and quickly thereafter, down from it. we have been having the conversation all week as to whether that is true. how long do you think they have to stay up there? seth: how are baseline forecast has been a bear for years so that you peak rates in december and the first grudging 25 basis points easing off in terms of a fed cut in december 2023. the short answer is no one knows for sure. we think the u.s. economy has a fair amount of momentum behind it and more importantly as i said before, they need to slow

lisa: countdown to a pivotal cbi report. -- cpi report.reaction that is bifurcated with a heavier weight to the upside surprise that the downside surprise? tom: i don't have a clue on that important question. mike mckee will be with us in 15 minutes to go into everything. to me the most interesting point, david stubbs of jp morgan, take out, energy, this new shelter inflation we have got, and where do services stand? lisa: how much will that be the source? the pivot away from goods to services, how much of that has been curtailed by lack of confidence? people are talking about a sudden about base from what the fed projection will be. there is a lot of time between now and september, jackson hole, a lot of data that could confirm or rebut what we get. tom: we have to remember so many of these series still shows whatever listeners and viewers feel, higher inflation. let's be clear, it has not turned around. lisa: why we are looking at real wages and going more negative. as we look at this report, what are you most focus on to give us a compa

not just the labour party asking them to act, the cbi, trade unions, other organisations dealing withre also asking for this government to act now.- this government to act now. there have been cults _ this government to act now. there have been cults from _ this government to act now. there have been cults from groups - this government to act now. there have been cults from groups and l this government to act now. there have been cults from groups and been talking about that and you've mentioned an emergency budget. what would be the proposal, what would be that help to individual people, families, that would come from an emergency budget, what actual specific policy would help people when they're looking at an enormous bill like this?— bill like this? your right to say that this is _ bill like this? your right to say that this is just _ bill like this? your right to say that this is just the _ bill like this? your right to say that this is just the poorest. that this is just the poorest families, it's right across the country. for middle—class families are struggling and that is why

it did have a strong reading relatively -- relative to history, the cbi they came out late last month, even if the market looked at it and said for the first time in a year, inflation did not surprise to the upside. so the market has reacted a lot more calmly to inflation then general australian society has done shery:. and the economy is starting to react as well. there are charts on the bloomberg showing how australian housing prices r-star -- are starting to decline. take on these rate hikes? >> i think the biggest impact is in the housing market. prices started dropping off beasts -- before rate started to tighten but they have accelerated since that happen. that is a worry, like how hard and how fast the housing market goes. there are expectations of 15% over the next year, and if that comes to pass, it will be a difficult situation for millions of australians who on a house or who have loans with mortgages. the cost of the been has gone up -- cost of housing has gone up. so it is a question on how they respond to further increases of interest rates. so far it looks like they're

happening is everybody is playing politics with all of this which is very dangerous and we have seen the cbi this is under control. , :, , , ,, reassurance that this is under control. , , ,, :, . control. i understand business once reassurance — control. i understand business once reassurance and _ control. i understand business once reassurance and probably _ reassurance and probably a decision to cut the forthcoming corporation tax rise will help some of those businesses, i am tax rise will help some of those businesses, iam not tax rise will help some of those businesses, i am not sure whether a cut to national insurance will make much of a difference of those most needy and that is what is missing from the argument i think on both sides, identically have heard from either of them how they will specifically target a furlough style amount of help towards the poorest in society. i amount of help towards the poorest in socie . .. :, amount of help towards the poorest in socie . ,, ., , in society. i think that is right and the problem we - in society. i think that is right and the problem we

based on the jobs number shown this last week with the cbi and the epi shown particularly this week, this may overall work pretty good for earnings. when we look at the q3 earnings and fourth quarter. i would say the fact that analysts caught their expectations going into the end- of-the-year actually offers opportunity to recognize what we believe is the fundamentals are indeed getting better, as challenges remain on the landscape. >> opportunity as well as potentially some volatility. omar, i know you are urging clients to rebalance. rebalance in what way? what types of waiting would you advise? >> well, it is clear we are entering the last phase and beginning the last phase of the economic cycle. that period we should expect more volatility. we should expect deceleration of economic growth. we should expect deceleration of earnings. in the process of interest rate hikes as we see financial conditions. this is a good opportunity for clients to use rebalancing mechanisms to be disciplined about these. i am trying to just have strategies where you still need to have some defensive co

be that it would happen earlier >> and then, just minutes before travis's release, a call from the cbi>> yes. >> the man who attacked lydia tillman was, the dna confirmed, travis forbes. it >> was the biggest adrenaline dump ever. and of course, i called detective goo lay in tears. we did it, he's charge, he's in jail, he's not getting out. >> i was relieved that now he is going to be in jail and now he can't hurt anybody and now i don't have to be searching for him. >> where travis's arrest also traveled quickly to kenya's family. >> i was shocked. i knew he would eventually hang himself. but i didn't think he would go out and tried to murder. and i was shocked, we were shocked. >> yeah. >> but they still didn't know what happened to kenya. quickly, the league family called a news conference and delivered a message to travis forbes. >> anybody is going to relay any message him to him -- or if you guys talk to him, tell him we got just one question. where is kenya? that's it. >> but travis was not talking anymore. so, lee offered a radical idea. >> i called assistant da lombardi and sa

regeneration and the extent of cbi regeneration and the extent of the latest revisions.nd the rest of europe. gdp growth in the uk has slowed and it is for cassoulet enter recession later this year. as illustrated by the white line on this chart, the chart is showing what we are projecting, i am using the baseline projection here, with the baseline projection here, with the fixed line of energy prices, comparing it with past recessions. said their white line shows that the projected peak and trough line an hour to 40% similar to that experienced in the 1990s recession, in green. less than the global financial crisis shown in pink. in marked contrast to these previous episodes, this predominantly reflects the adverse impact of the very sharp rise in global energy and tradable goods prices in income and spending. as shown in their fun chat here for inflation, these further accentuated the extent to which each in the mpc baseline projection, ubc projections below the target in three years time. cpi inflation has projected the fullbacks from its peak as rising domestic press

we had an encouraging rating of cbi and still -- and also pce barely pulled down by energy but we arethe weakening of inflation slower. a lot of consumer goods and airfares have been affected over the past year or so but it's bimodal with a lot of pressure on shelter and rent and food. those are my running much higher than usual. tom: i like the idea of a by motl theory. we will always take the part of the by motl that shows up later. is this a fed that reacts to a bimodal disinflation at the september meeting? >> i think it's the september meeting this year. we will likely see a 50 point hike. it won't be as weak as july but what the fed is ready for his 50 basis points and j powell is talking about the curve. he wasn't talking about the magnitude of price going forward. they are all on the same page and there pushing back on the futures which is showing rate cuts so in september i think we get that 50 basis point cut but they said in july that the rate hikes they have done, we haven't felt the full impact yet. he says we will see those come through later this year. lisa: you say you

it's complicated but i think it's important story what is that complicated cbi the federal reserve iseasing it should put upward pressure on interest rates, but hang on a second rates on the long end have been remarkably stable. the ten-year is even down a little bit since the announcement of the fed's plans in early may it may well be fear of recession, a policy pivot, but there's something else going on that isn't widely known. the treasury has actually been reducing the size of its quarterly issuance partially offsetting the qt. treasury net new issuance has declined every quarter it's estimated it will drop again. they are estimates based on projections from the treasury. so why is this happening first, treasury issued a lot of debt preemptively during the pandemic, not all of which it ended up needing debt is still going up, just not as fast as the market expected, even with aggressive qt. right now the impact of qf is being overwhelmed by the right sizing and normalization it will be put to the test when the fed doubles the run up next year if net issuance rises and maybe you do

recently ended, when the americans left, and often a military company, ah, one of the private military cbi that find out here. i think the numbers are probably going to be even scarier. that's right. the fact is that you gave the example of afghanistan, i give the same example for iraq, for example, i, uh, i was wondering, in fact, but we understand that there is no oil in iraq, but there is no gasoline, respectively , a and while there are working factories, but american cars should run only on their own fuel. so for now, america will deliver fuel in order to refuel its humvee in iraq, but a liter costs about $19. they are it too showed, it is clear that this is a theory of absurdity about the same as this roll of toilet paper for $ 300, but now there are already several commissions, each of which receives a fairly good allocation from each tranche that the americans allocate to ukraine these officials come and each time recognize what they represent in fact sent receipts from ukraine in fact, they bring these rolls and say, here is our report in rolls. i'm not laughing. excuse me please,

we have had the cbi saying it is going to be far too late to wait until those dates before they decide because _ to be implemented? it's a good question because of _ to be implemented? it's a good question because of course i to be implemented? it's a good question because of course it i to be implemented? it's a good l question because of course it has taken quite some time for the payment announced by rishi sunak coming to households. they really only started in july and there coming to households. they really only started injuly and there will be more coming in october. implementation takes a bit of time, deciding who are at the elegy pupil takes a bit of time. maybe if we could use the same formula from before, maybe that will speed things up. whoever is elected as leader of the tory party is going to have to do something pretty urgent. the implementation could be done a lot faster, but the real issue is what messages you give to consumers. although the consumer spending quite a lot this summer, is a nice weather, they are going travelling and so on, still intends to really restrai