mean, i would say that, i think budgeting has gotten more difficult since cbo has formed. budgeting is much more integrated within the economy. he kind of questions we have to take on are much more difficult. view, thein my political miracle that such an agency has been able to withstand the crucible of politics and keep not only their analytic integrity high, but be the model for international organizations that are increasingly adopting cbo's. the challenge really is, how can we create analytic tools, but without having them become decision rules? when analytic tools become decision rules, the pressure on analytic agencies and political leaders alike becomes very difficult. that is where you really earn your money as an analyst, as maya said, sustain a approach where you are presenting multiple options and letting political leaders making those decisions. forcing those decisions to be made by an analytic agency and mechanically be translated into budget figures is a really risky path. >> let's open it up for a couple questions. introduce yourself. let entered as yourself

from last year to this year, about $544 billion that was revised downward a little bit recently by cbo still a significant increase from last year. that's the annual deficit. that's what gets added to the debt. and then increases that $19 trillion number. growth in the economy. we've seen significant decrease in growth over the last few years and the projections aren't comfortable for the last majority of the public. the average growth rate in our economy over the past 40 to 50 years has been 3.2%, analyzed growth, the kind of growth that it takes to continue to keep the economy moving and jobs being created, the projection is 2.1% analyzed growth over the next ten years. a 30% to 35% reduction in the rate of growth in our economy. in the interest on the debt, we're now paying $235 billion each year on interest on that $19 trillion in debt and that's at relatively low interest rates as you all well know. the projection within the ten-year period of time is that we approach over $18 billion in payment interest on the debt each year approaching a trillion dollars. now what difference doe

i think that goes with the territory with regard to cbo.ossible solution might be for cbo to acknowledge that there are perhaps some alternatives, alternative models that are good enough. i mean come meet the test of reasonableness that the projections of those models ought to be published alongside cbo's most confident assessment of what things look like. that would essentially mean that for cbo's role is not like the final arbiter, but is the high priest with some of the priests. and that might be a way of defusing this in such a way that you keep solid proposal, solid models being used but allow some variation, some room for maneuver. that might be a way to deal with this. >> -- to say anymore about that. i think cbo does a great job within the confines of what they had to work with. we need to change those confines, would be my judgment, but i don't have any more. >> so not knowing exactly what dr. price was referring to i think it could've been two things. the dynamics would you bring up and also the fact there's a sense that baselines

committee works on and it is rising at the rate of inflation over the next ted years according to the cbo so the entire budget following the path is the money we are in charge of with the appropriations committee. where does that come from? that is an automatic i mandatory spending that is not even include the interest of the federal debt. because i suggested to turn over to the appropriations committee because we're doing our job and the rest of the senate is not doing the job to run up the federal debt. we presented an amount of money by the committee that we allocate. we have set priorities and cut wasteful spending to get those projects under control to eliminate funding that saves $125 million. of the uranium processing facility that 90 percent designed before it is built on time or on budget.ind o looking for the armed services committee. we have a red team working on the new mexico the senator and i have a bill that reduced that topline growth by $1 trillion over the next 10 years but we're not co-sponsors of the bill so we're not talking about that much although there may be an at

the first one is grants to cbo's and the second one is work order expenditures. all these work orders to other city departments result to tlepl doing services to cbo's. we do this primarily to leverage our sister cities expertise. we send funds over to the department of mental health it provide mental health services in our public high schools as well as violence prevention strategies. we partner with first five san francisco and the human services agency. the other highlight on this slide is the children and youth fund revenues. and as ux see, the funds are growing and that's because of the scheduled growth that was written inside the charter. and i will be focusing the rest of my time on details of our grant making since that is the core of our function. last year, fiscal year 2014-2015, dcyf allocated approximately $20 million to serve 20,000 individuals in the city. that's over 450 programs. due to the scheduled increase that i hareferenced earlier, we are looking at almost $18 million of unprogrammed funds over the next two years and we are working very clos

city build that is led by patrick that is lead and that leadership is louis us to work with the cbos and put our community workers to work on the projects and another really, really more dynamic this is lead by harlan kelly is the partnerships are the building trades and mike and their affiliates allows us to do trainings and partnership are the trades we've begun a training program in partnership with the tracks and a gps training with the operating engineers and charley labor and a concrete training with the carpenters and one finally which was a dynamic one that told the story how we do the trainings the recent completed a cohort with the laborers that was around the recession habitat and on the training we worked with the trades and the cbos throughout san francisco and had cbos do the soft work and get folks that really wanted to engage and have careers in construction we built ulcer up the workers with the recruitment and the laborers worked with the contractor and you are project manager to develop projects that was specificly relevant and folks got the training and come out o

only a small portion 18 percent are actually getting that with the help of the large network of the cbo coalition the marin with the human services agency over the past year the cbo has submitted and approved 17 hundred applications generating approximately $8.8 million unanimously this is a graphic giving you a sense the population for the medi-cal i've referenced if you see the large yellow and green this is the medi-cal approximately, one and 25 thousand households ref medi-cal in the city approximately half are, however, only a portion are referring calfresh so the encourage cycle it is orange and pink the caseload the offer laptop it 2 $3,000 and more thousands are likely eligible for calfresh and to try to address that we've hired and vendor that is engaged in an out bound calling to help with the assistance on the phone so what are our next steps in terms of the finding the applicants we'll continue to expand in reach and outreach one now in reach strategy we'll launch in the fall similar out bound campaign to children for those who have an interest in calfresh and to provide the

i think that kind of goes with the territory with regard to cbo, i think one possible solution mightto acknowledge that there are perhaps some alternative models that are good enough, i mean meet the test of reasonableness that the projections of those models ought to be published alongside cbo's most confidence assessment of what things will look like. that would essentially mean that cbo's role is not like the semifinal arbiter, but is the high priest with some other priests, with what it says in leviticus, and that might be a way of diffusing this so that you keep solid models up being used, but allow some deviation, and some room for maneuver, that might be a way to deal with this. >> it took too many years to say anything more about that, the i think cbo does a great job within the confines of what they have to work with. we need to get -- we need to change those confines, would be my judgment. but that's -- i don't have anymore to add. >> so not snknowing exactly wha dr. price was referring to, the fact that baselines don't treat spending and revenue in a parallel way always. i

the first one is grants to cbo's and the second one is work order expenditures. all these work orders to other city departments result to tlepl doing services to cbo's. we do this primarily to leverage our sister cities expertise. we send funds over to the department of mental health it provide mental health services in our public high schools as well as violence prevention strategies. we partner with first five san francisco and the human services agency. the other highlight on this slide is the children and youth fund revenues. and as ux see, the funds are growing and that's because of the scheduled growth that was written inside the charter. and i will be focusing the rest of my time on details of our grant making since that is the core of our function. last year, fiscal year 2014-2015, dcyf allocated approximately $20 million to serve 20,000 individuals in the city. that's over 450 programs. due to the scheduled increase that i had referenced earlier, we are looking at almost $18 million of unprogrammed funds over the next two years and we are working very cl

we asked cbo to do a thirty-year estimate. i look forward to the time that this body then requests that this plan not move forward are we not to thirty-year estimates. if we are not going to do long-term planning is ms. sanchez said that let's be honest about it. what i'm trying to offer here is a commonsense transparency measure that is honest with all of our colleagues here on the committee about what the true cost of this is going to be. this is manageable. our military leaders have told us it's manageable but we have to plan for that and we have to be honest about the effects that this is going to be on our readiness and on our activities. what i'm trying to offers a transparency measure for 30 years. i realize that these body sometimes have planning longer than five years as the chairman mentioned. when we are talking about something as important as their nuclear triad rate thank you very much miss gabbard and i yield back. >> that a lady of the questions on amendment offered by the someone from california mr. aguilar. th

only a small portion 18 percent are actually getting that with the help of the large network of the cbo coalition the marin with the human services agency over the past year the cbo has submitted and approved 17 hundred applications generating approximately $8.8 million unanimously this is a graphic giving you a sense the population for the medi-cal i've referenced if you see the large yellow and green this is the medi-cal approximately, one and 25 thousand households ref medi-cal in the city approximately half are, however, only a portion are referring calfresh so the encourage cycle it is orange and pink the caseload the offer laptop it 2 $3,000 and more thousands are likely eligible for calfresh and to try to address that we've hired and vendor that is engaged in an out bound calling to help with the assistance on the phone so what are our next steps in terms of the finding the applicants we'll continue to expand in reach and outreach one now in reach strategy we'll launch in the fall similar out bound campaign to children for those who have an interest in calfresh and to provide the

douglas holtz-eakin, american action forum, former cbo director.g, sheer number of regulation, he has whole another year and he is above what clinton or bush had. >> quite remarkable actually. if you look at total regulation, not just major regulations, turns out they're finalizing over one new regulation every day during his time in office. the total compliance costs for the business sector of those regulation is about $770 billion. that is $100 billion a year. david: wow. >> you know, you and i both know if we had $100 billion tax increase every year you would expect the economy to suffer. it is no surprising we had such a poor recovery, the economy, even though it's positive who knows, it may actually be negative, we assume it is positive, still growing minuscule amount. quantity of regulations but quality of regulations some of which are really draconian, wants to reduce carbon emissions 32% over next 20 years. that could have enormous cost in the future for our economy. >> and it hits the economy right now not like you say, we'll do the regula

only a small portion 18 percent are actually getting that with the help of the large network of the cbohe marin with the human services agency over the past year the cbo has submitted and approved 17 hundred applications generating approximately $8.8 million unanimously this is a graphic giving you a sense the population for the medi-cal i've referenced if you see the large yellow and green this is the medi-cal approximately, one and 25 thousand households ref medi-cal in the city approximately half are, however, only a portion are referring calfresh so the encourage cycle it is orange and pink the caseload the offer laptop it 2 $3,000 and more thousands are likely eligible for calfresh and to try to address that we've hired and vendor that is engaged in an out bound calling to help with the assistance on the phone so what are our next steps in terms of the finding the applicants we'll continue to expand in reach and outreach one now in reach strategy we'll launch in the fall similar out bound campaign to children for those who have an interest in calfresh and to provide them with phone

i think i have a very unique perspective on the service that the cbo's provide because i was a client and service provider and work for priferbt industry partnering with community based organization. i want to advocate for cbo like [inaudible] or chinese new comers, renaissance sents squr all the work they do. at this time i'll wrap it up. >> i don't have any questions but i want to comment on the comments that pastor [inaudible] said and mr. pin. i appreciate you sitting and listening through hours of testimonying and comments because your comments statements are so susinkt and to the point. while you were talking i wrote a note saying what have you accomplished or want to accomplish and you said what do i want to accomplish. it was as if you were in my head and was on the body when you before us the first time and you have grown tremendously in a short period of time. i'm happy to support you today >> xae other applicants here today? it looks like just 2. i'll open up item 6. wade woods, irene sands, dennis mar zan andorian will is. >> good afternoon supervisors. i'm here on behalf

only a small portion 18 percent are actually getting that with the help of the large network of the cbo coalition the marin with the human services agency over the past year the cbo has submitted and approved 17 hundred applications generating approximately $8.8 million unanimously this is a graphic giving you a sense the population for the medi-cal i've referenced if you see the large yellow and green this is the medi-cal approximately, one and 25 thousand households ref medi-cal in the city approximately half are, however, only a portion are referring calfresh so the encourage cycle it is orange and pink the caseload the offer laptop it 2 $3,000 and more thousands are likely eligible for calfresh and to try to address that we've hired and vendor that is engaged in an out bound calling to help with the assistance on the phone so what are our next steps in terms of the finding the applicants we'll continue to expand in reach and outreach one now in reach strategy we'll launch in the fall similar out bound campaign to children for those who have an interest in calfresh and to provide the

the cbo has not. if there is a recession, traditionally the federal reserve cuts interest rates by about 3%. 300 basis points. what's it going to do now given that there are 300 points come from the point to cut? >> that's an excellent question. let me say first, as jen has pointed out there's no sense in which it doesn't always get the risk is more or less constant in every year. 10, 15% as you suggested. the weekend forecast it's no reason think just because we had been in this case seven years of recovery doesn't mean we are due for another session at all. we are facing, and i agree with a lot of janet earlier analysis can we are facing some risks like developments globally which aggressive headwinds to the united states. productivity growth is only modest which is also a problem but the domestic u.s. economy is moving forward. householdhouseholder for strongl speaking. housing sectors continue to expand. idles any particular reason think a recession is a more likely in 2016 that was in 2015 or 201

cbo estimated we can save 1.3 billion ever a period of time if the changes are made. >> the chair recognizes the gentlemen from pennsylvania mr. cartwright for five minutes. >> i thank chairman meadows, and thank chairman chaffetz for calling this important hearing. mr. tillotson, one of the issues goa included in this year's duplication report is dod's storage of occupational and environmental surveillance data. am i correct in that? >> yes, that is correct >> can you explain what the term means occupational and surveillance data? >> certainly. as the department conducts its industrial activities there is a requirement with law and osha standards that we collect information on any conditions that may eventually cause us to have to go back and look at impacts on the worse force or work environment. >> this has an impact on active duty service men, women and veterans. am i correct? >> that is correct. >> dod uses this information to tract biological, chemical and physical health hazards to our service men and women? >> that is correct. >> what benefit does dod get from collecting that type of

the first one is grants to cbo's and the second one is work order expenditures. all these work orders to other city departments result to tlepl doing services to cbo's. we do this primarily to leverage our sister cities expertise. we send funds over to the department of mental health it provide mental health services in our public high schools as well as violence prevention strategies. we partner with first five san francisco and the human services agency. the other highlight on this slide is the children and youth fund revenues. and as ux see, the funds are growing and that's because of the scheduled growth that was written inside the charter. and i will be focusing the rest of my time on details of our grant making since that is the core of our function. last year, fiscal year 2014-2015, dcyf allocated approximately $20 million to serve 20,000 individuals in the city. that's over 450 programs. due to the scheduled increase that i had referenced earlier, we are looking at almost $18 million of unprogrammed funds over the next two years and we are working very cl

only a small portion 18 percent are actually getting that with the help of the large network of the cbo coalition the marin with the human services agency over the past year the cbo has submitted and approved 17 hundred applications generating approximately $8.8 million unanimously this is a graphic giving you a sense the population for the medi-cal i've referenced if you see the large yellow and green this is the medi-cal approximately, one and 25 thousand households ref medi-cal in the city approximately half are, however, only a portion are referring calfresh so the encourage cycle it is orange and pink the caseload the offer laptop it 2 $3,000 and more thousands are likely eligible for calfresh and to try to address that we've hired and vendor that is engaged in an out bound calling to help with the assistance on the phone so what are our next steps in terms of the finding the applicants we'll continue to expand in reach and outreach one now in reach strategy we'll launch in the fall similar out bound campaign to children for those who have an interest in calfresh and to provide the

the first one is grants to cbo's and the second one is work order expenditures. all these work orders to other city departments result to tlepl doing services to cbo's. we do this primarily to leverage our sister cities expertise. we send funds over to the department of mental health it provide mental health services in our public high schools as well as violence prevention strategies. we partner with first five san francisco and the human services agency. the other highlight on this slide is the children and youth fund revenues. and as ux see, the funds are growing and that's because of the scheduled growth that was written inside the charter. and i will be focusing the rest of my time on details of our grant making since that is the core of our function. last year, fiscal year 2014-2015, dcyf allocated approximately $20 million to serve 20,000 individuals in the city. that's over 450 programs. due to the scheduled increase that i had referenced earlier, we are looking at almost $18 million of unprogrammed funds over the next two years and we are working very cl

the cbo volatility index or vix has had a tough go of it since the stock market hit bottom on that so-called bottom back on february 11. stocks have rallied back by the most in a quarter since the great depression era, and volatility has collapsed. the vix stood at 30, that level that day and today it's closer to around 13 or 14. we haven't seen a downtrend like that since the autumn of last year when the vix went from a level of 28 down to 13 in a span of about a month, a time when the s&p 500 rallied by over 10%. but it's what came after that has some traders' attention here. after a couple of months of largely sideways action, the markets hit that rough patch that we saw in the beginning of this year so a big question is whether or not volatility has gotten cheap enough to be attractive. melissa? >> back over to you guys at the nasdaq. >> thanks so much, dom chu. have a great weekend. >> with the vix so low the chart master thinks it might be a good time to buy protection. carter, what are you lacking at? >> before we get to the charts, think about the trajectory we've traveled. started o

i think i have a very unique perspective on the service that the cbo's provide because i was a client and service provider and work for priferbt industry partnering with community based organization. i want to advocate for cbo like [inaudible] or chinese new comers, renaissance sents squr all the work they do. at this time i'll wrap it up. >> i don't have any questions but i want to comment on the comments that pastor [inaudible] said and mr. pin. i appreciate you sitting and listening through hours of testimonying and comments because your comments statements are so susinkt and to the point. while you were talking i wrote a note saying what have you accomplished or want to accomplish and you said what do i want to accomplish. it was as if you were in my head and was on the body when you before us the first time and you have grown tremendously in a short period of time. i'm happy to support you today >> xae other applicants here today? it looks like just 2. i'll open up item 6. wade woods, irene sands, dennis mar zan andorian will is. >> good afternoon supervisors. i'm here on behalf

office came out with a new affordable care act estimate stating compare with the projection made by cbo and jcp, the joint committee on tax in march 2010 just before the aca was enacted, the current estimate of the net cost of insurance coverage over 2016 and 2019 period is lower by 157 billion, lower by 25 percent. 157 million on the budget, not something we see in the halls of congress very often. 157 billion left in the treasury. the insurance market and these estimates are complex and we have been talking about how important reinsurance has been creating stability in the market. is it fair to say reinsurance has played a role in the success covering so many people out coming in substantially under budget? >> yes. >> consumers when the health insurance premiums are low, but how does that impact the u.s. treasury? >> because insurance premiums for modest income americans are subsidized with tax credits, everything we do to improve affordability for consumers directly reduces the obligation of the federal government, and so the hundred $57 billion under budget is, i think, in part, a r

cbo reported six risk of this weeks ago this year's shortfall, this year's annual deficit will be $105 billion higher than expected. within that context, we said look, maybe we should not spend $30 billion more. maybe we should actually at least hold the line on spending to start to deal with the fiscal mess we are in. after all, every single-family, every single government, every single school district, township, city, state has to do that, but the one entity that does not just happens to be the one that has the $19 trillion debt. we think that would just become -- we would love to have a budget. let's write the upper patient and start the process, but there is trouble getting folks for that as well. we will see. ms. ferrechio: following up on that, congress does not have to pass a budget, but they are obligated to pass the appropriation bills. there are 12 of them and they are needed to fund the federal government by september 30. how do you foresee the lack of a budget deal playing into the appropriations process? will the house freedom caucus, about 40 members that you guys have, w

the cbo has not. if there is a recession, traditionally the federal reserve cut interest rates by about 3%. 300 basis points. what is it going to do now, given that there aren't 300 points to cut? mr. bernanke: excellent question. let me just say first that as janet has pointed out, there's no sense in which expansions die of old age. the risk of recession is more or less constant every year. though we can't forecast them, there's no reason to think that just because we've been in seven years of recovery, doesn't mean we are due for another recession. we are facing, and i agree with a lot of janet's early analysis, we are facing some risks like developments globally, which are creating headwinds in the united states. productivity growth is only modest, which is a problem. the domestic u.s. economy is moving toward. households are pretty strong. housing sectors continue to expand. i don't see any particular reason to think a recession is it waskely in 2016 than in 2015 or 2014. it is true that if a rec

and over the next ten years we will find -- this is something that even the cbo has concluded. tens of billions of dollars in deficit reduction. >> 12 of the original 23 federally funded co-ops have already failed. the co-ops are insurance companies, designed to increase competition and lower costs. >> they were an artificial -- you could say hopeful creation propped up by political forces in congress, which wanted to try to use public money to experiment with a different type of health insurance coverage. it never made a whole lot of sense from the start. >> the centers for medicare and medicaid services isn't identifying the eight at risk co-o co-ops. those with the biggest risks were oregon, ohio, montana, wisconsin, illinois and new mexico. last month the acting administrator offered a senate panel a very sober assessment. >> these are small enterprises. it's fair to say the risk is quite high about. >> the nation's top insurer is quitting to obama care markets. the insurer will not sell plans in arkansas and georgia next year. >> the problem is obama care relies on private

the fed has not, the cbo has not. if there is a recession, traditionally the federal reserve cuts interest rates by about 3%. the jargon is called 300 bases points. what is it going to do now given there are not 300 points? >> it is a great question. there is no sense in which expansions die of old age. the risk of recession is constant every year. sort of 10-15 percent. we cannot forecast it. there is no reason to think just because we have been seven years in recovery doesn't mean we are due for another recession at all. we are facing, and i agree with a lot of janet's early analysis, we are facing some risks like developments globally which are creating head winds for the united states. productivity growth is only modest which is also a problem. but the domestic u.s. any is moving forward. households are strong financially speaking. housing sectors continuing to expand and so on. i don't see any reason to think a recession is anymore likely than was in 2015 and 2014. it is true if a recession were to begin we would

only a small portion 18 percent are actually getting that with the help of the large network of the cbo coalition the marin with the human services agency over the past year the cbo has submitted and approved 17 hundred applications generating approximately $8.8 million unanimously this is a graphic giving you a sense the population for the medi-cal i've referenced if you see the large yellow and green this is the medi-cal approximately, one and 25 thousand households ref medi-cal in the city approximately half are, however, only a portion are referring calfresh so the encourage cycle it is orange and pink the caseload the offer laptop it 2 $3,000 and more thousands are likely eligible for calfresh and to try to address that we've hired and vendor that is engaged in an out bound calling to help with the assistance on the phone so what are our next steps in terms of the finding the applicants we'll continue to expand in reach and outreach one now in reach strategy we'll launch in the fall similar out bound campaign to children for those who have an interest in calfresh and to provide the

of elections is doing as far as outreach he mentioned the means that happen 4 times a year in which cbos can come to the meetings and express any suggestions anything related to civic engagement how the city helped in a non-partisan way to get people out to vote this is a one thing and the other on the website it is calendar of all the community events they do tabling and another thing that was helpful that the city is doing is doing presentations in outreach at the re-entry service programs so once an inmate is out they're able to be registered and to be able to vote again. >> thank you. >> then i'll add on top of the department does a lot of community outreach and going to events the only way to do more if they increased the budget and had more staff they do a lot already and did on kwlent job of educating people not only in voting but that forces them to go out and make sure that people understand though to use that system and their educating people in voting in general one of the things not just this report but how much they do out in the community they don't necessarily need to do t

over the past years and many more to come to be deferring for plaques like this this is particularly cbos close to our hearts because of the work in the community to support jerseys legacy and community what with the meaningless of the amphitheater and many projects we are grateful to supervisor avalos in 4e7 us get historic street names like china and india are part of that walk of fame so thank you and hope this passes. >> thank you. i also want to thank you for working so many years as well as our volunteering for the friends and advocates of the excelsior to do the everyday maintenance upkeep that is great you're continuing that work thank you. >> hello my name is wayne at first when i saw the white rablts i thought that was doing o something for fall canning in her my wife karen at the time knew couldn't come today knew jerry garcia in elementary school and middle school and high school by meeting him in the excelsior she said that jerry father owned the grocery stores in mission san juan and ray ramos would meet jerome embarrassing on mission and harrington street to walk to the mid

and over the next ten years we will find -- this is something that even the cbo has concluded.ens of billions of dollars in deficit reduction. >> 12 of the original 23 federally funded co-ops have already failed. the co-ops are insurance companies, designed to increase competition and lower costs. >> they were an artificial -- you could say hopeful creation propped up by political forces in congress, which wanted to try to use public money to experiment with a different type of health insurance coverage. it never made a whole lot of sense from the start. >> the centers for medicare and medicaid services isn't identifying the eight at risk co-o co-ops. those with the biggest risks were oregon, ohio, montana, wisconsin, illinois and new mexico. last month the acting administrator offered a senate panel a very sober assessment. >> these are small enterprises. it's fair to say the risk is quite high about. >> the nation's top insurer is quitting to obama care markets. the insurer will not sell plans in arkansas and georgia next year. >> the problem is obama care relies on private p

the fed -- the cbo has not. traditionally the federal reserve cut interest rates by about 3%. 300 basis points. what is it going to do now given that there are not 300 points to cut? chairman bernanke: it's an excellent question. let me say first that as janet pointed out there is no sense in which expansion dies of old age. the risk of recession is more or less constant every year. 10%-50%. -- 10%-15%. just because we have been in this case seven years of recovery does not mean we are due for another recession at all. we are facing, and i agree with a lot of what janet's analysis, we are facing risks and developments globally. growth is only modest which is also a problem. domestic u.s. economy is moving forward. households are pretty strong financially speaking. the housing sectors continue to expand and so on. i do see any particular reason to think a recession is any more likely in 20 18 than it was in 2015 or 2014. that being said it is true that if a recession where to begin in the next year or two would b

the cbo volatility index, otherwise known as the vix, rallied 8% yesterday. so how can investors trade an impending volatility event? our data team crunched the numbers to find out which s&p stocks and etf securities actually outperform when the vix rallies. turns out no s&p stocks do particularly well, but stocks in traditional defensive sectors like health care and consumer staples hold up best, like allergan, dollar tree, and a few others. the etfs that do well include the tlt 20-year treasury bond etf, and the iau gold trust. no surprise there. the so-called fear indicators rallying altogether. for more, go to cnbc.com and check out cnbc pro. >>> the latest on the fallout from the panama papers. the u.s. justice department is reviewing the leak from a law firm which revealed the financial arrangements of global politicians and public figures. specifically, the doj will look into whether or not the findings point to evidence of corruption. separately, in iceland a record number of protesters taking to the streets to demand the resignation of the prime mini

i spoke to one economist, formerly headed the cbo, congressional budget office. here's what he said. >> i think this is quint shaken trump. there's no way this will -- quintessential trump. there's no way this could happen. people shrugged it off as a politician talking about what would be great but not what is going to happen. >> a politician talk can about what is great but not what is going to happen. sounds familiar. the debt goes up with $2.5 billion every day. >> that's a big number. >> a big number. very big number. >> thank you very much. appreciate it, geri. let's bring in ed o'keefe, live from the "washington post" in d.c. ed, nice to see you. >> good to see you. >> internal memo in your newspaper that suggests that donald trump campaign is mounting fury with it critics. tell us about the memo, what it tells us. >> basically it's one of trump's knew advisers focused especially on wooing delegates, saying to the campaign, last week may have been rough but don't worry, let's plow ahead and focus on the big prize. there was a lot of chatter about the fact

elizabeth: yeah, cbo had been projecting at least 3% growth.r? he can't lay claim to it.ng his legacy way after the fact and, watch this. he also said in this interview, he said the top -- can he wish he got that communication out because the democrats would have still held the house and the senate. so there's a back story we've got to watch. kimberly: this is one of the key issues for women especially which are comprising a large portion of the electorate, it's all about the economy. this has been one of the slowest, most painful recoveries since the great depression for the united states. so he can't really tout claim to this. the republicans should be hitting it hard, like you said, because this is an issue that people should vote about. especially the middle class is getting destroyed with all the taxes, overregulation and obamacare. sandra: so we look at that headline 5% unemployment number, but americans just don't feel like it's that great. >>> all right, house speaker john boehner unloading on presidential candidate ted cruz calling him "lucifer in the flesh." now

welfare trade-off which was widely criticized and i think the pennsylvania study and some stuff on cbo, figures in an ohio study that sort of confirmed where we were coming down on that. and then your book, i think, really builds on that work. what would you, though, recommend as an alternative to that? i mean, i know that when we brought out that study, some folks on the left said, well, the answer is, therefore, we have to raise wages. we need a higher minimum wage. we need more guaranteed benefits of some kind. other people says, well, it means we need to cut welfare benefits down to a lower level. some people talked about the earned income tax credit. what do you recommend as an answer? in well, certainly, making welfare point toward work is an important part of that the present system is anti-work. it's almost a war on work. and that's insane. at the very, very least, we ought to be helping people get out of the system and into paid employment. i did mention the eitc. it does have the effect of topping up wages, and that, i think, is very good. it's a cumbersome system. it require

i think i have a very unique perspective on the service that the cbo's provide because i was a clientand service provider and work for priferbt industry partnering with community based organization. i want to advocate for cbo like [inaudible] or chinese new comers, renaissance sents squr all the work they do. at this time i'll wrap it up. >> i don't have any questions but i want to comment on the comments that pastor [inaudible] said and mr. pin. i appreciate you sitting and listening through hours of testimonying and comments because your comments statements are so susinkt and to the point. while you were talking i wrote a note saying what have you accomplished or want to accomplish and you said what do i want to accomplish. it was as if you were in my head and was on the body when you before us the first time and you have grown tremendously in a short period of time. i'm happy to support you today >> xae other applicants here today? it looks like just 2. i'll open up item 6. wade woods, irene sands, dennis mar zan andorian will is. >> good afternoon supervisors. i'm here on behalf o

over the past years and many more to come to be deferring for plaques like this this is particularly cbos close to our hearts because of the work in the community to support jerseys legacy and community what with the meaningless of the amphitheater and many projects we are grateful to supervisor avalos in 4e7 us get historic street names like china and india are part of that walk of fame so thank you and hope this passes. >> thank you. i also want to thank you for working so many years as well as our volunteering for the friends and advocates of the excelsior to do the everyday maintenance upkeep that is great you're continuing that work thank you. >> hello my name is wayne at first when i saw the white rablts i thought that was doing o something for fall canning in her my wife karen at the time knew couldn't come today knew jerry garcia in elementary school and middle school and high school by meeting him in the excelsior she said that jerry father owned the grocery stores in mission san juan and ray ramos would meet jerome embarrassing on mission and harrington street to walk to the mid

glen kessler and he writes, in the eight years of a putative two-year -- two-term trump presidency the cbo projects a total of $10 trillion in discretionary spending. even if trump eliminated every government function and check on every cabinet agency he'd still be $16 trillion short. $16 trillion short. >> yeah, but -- >> reinforce -- let me ask you -- does this reinforce the notion that donald trump says things without actual hard facts to back them up? >> no, and -- >> by just saying it makes it true? >> no, because glen's not factoring any asset sales. the united states government owns, you know, more real estate than anybody else, more land than anybody else, we have more energy than anybody else. all those assets can be turned into money to pay off the debt so our kids don't have to pay it back. and glen's not factoring any of that in. >> so how's he going to do that? is he going to start selling government buildings? i'm sorry, what is he going to do? >> we can get rid of government buildings we're not using. we can extract the energy from government lands. we can lease government l

the cbo has not.f there is a recession, traditionally, the federal reserve cuts interest rates by about 3%. what is -- the jargon is called 300 basis points. what is it going to do now, given that there aren't 300 points to cut? mr. bernanke: excellent question. let me just say first that, as janet has pointed out, there's no sense in which expansions die of old age. the risk of recession is more or less constant in every year. 10% or 15% as you suggested. though we can't forecast them, there's no reason to think that just because we've been in seven years of recovery, doesn't mean we are due for another recession at all. we are facing, and i agree with a lot of janet's early analysis, we are facing some risks like developments globally, which are creating headwinds in the united states. productivity growth is only modest, which is also a problem. but domestic u.s. economy is moving toward. households are pretty strong. financially speaking. housing sectors continue to expand, and so on. i don't see a

out with a new affordable care act estimate stating that quote, compared with the projection made by cbo and jct, joint committee on tax in march of 2010, just before the aca was enacted, the current estimate of the net cost of insurance coverage over 2016 to '19 period is lower by $157 billion, lower by 25%, and i repeat, $157 billion under budget. that's not something we see here in the halls of congress very often. that $157 billion left in the treasury and i know the insurance market, these estimates are complex and we have been talking about how important reinsurance has been in creating stability in the market while new consumer protections are created. my first question, is it fair to say that reinsurance has played at least a role in the success covering so many people while coming in substantially under budget? >> yes, congressman. >> we know that consumers win when the health insurance premiums are low, but how does that impact the u.s. treasury? >> well, because the insurance premiums for modest income americans are subsidized in effect with tax credits, everything we do to im

so to my left have president the american action forum and two former directors of the cbo and the director of criminal justice and a former director of the u.s. equal employment opportunity commission. with a founder and chief executive officer and adding to his philanthropic community. director of the justice program with the creative civil liberties union's and with mass incarceration as a former director the office of management and budget and here is also a member of economic rigour and bipartisan and credentials. i will start by asking one question to each panel. the first question goes to douglas about the cost and benefit analysis so why should we think in terms of cost and benefits? what is the benefits of that approach? >> first, faq for the of white house for this event and the council for this report. for sponsoring this event in the benefit to put up with me. i am grateful for all of those five especially painful that we put out a report with the cost-benefit free-market and for those of you who are afraid because you think they were born without souls or were surgically remove