we have a great panel of current and former cbo officials. let me briefly introduce them and we will get rightinto it . on the left we have wendy had over who's the director of the director of economic studies and former chief economist and the ceo. next to wendy we have phil who's the current director of the congressional budget office the next day him doug deakins who is with american actionforum and a former cbo director . we have a lot to discuss . as a reminder send any questions to those of you in the chat room. okay. so to get started, a couple of the big topics in economics these days are rates of inflation, we've heard a about that this morning . so i think cbo got to work on this recently whether it's with senator crepo ranking member smith. could you give an update on their thinking ? >> it's a pleasure to be here with wendy with feedback in person with everyone. as jeff said, we recently responded to questions on two ranking members from the house budget community and finance committee. they're interested in inflation and interest

cbo has written to something saying it makes sense. people are already in part a and this bill does not increase the medicare part d premiums based on cbo analysis. 25% of postal employees in part a and part d, the additional ones make little difference. let's pass this bill. we have a budget point of order next. cbo estimated the savings over what we have to use here. this legislation would likely increase on budget deficits by $5 billion or more in at least one of the four year tenure periods creating an 2032. i want to make frequent points was none of this is related to the hospital insurance trust fund for part a. that is the trust fund we talk about a lot because we are concerned about it. and addresses on budget spending, and through the post office for the budget. the postal service employees americans pay and this point of order, medicare part d, in these -- future service retirees. 25% the don't already do it. private-sector employers require retirees to do the same thing. no one raises these points of order. the post office i

we have a great panel of current and former cbo officials.ve wendy oettlberg, from brookings institution and former chief economist at cbo next to wendy, we have phil swagel, current director and doug holts eakin , a former cbo director. as a reminder, please send in questions and we'll get to those later in the panel. okay. so to get started, a couple of the big topics in economics these days, interest rates and inflation and we've heard a little about that this morning. so i think that cbo has done work on this recently, sent letters to senator crapo and ranking recommend about these and could you elaborate what's in those letters and if you can, the cbo's updated thinking in those areas. >> thank you, and it's such a pleasure with wendy and doug and be back in person with everyone. as jeff said, my mic might be a bit high here. cbo recent responded to questions from two ranking members and the house study committee and the senate finance committee who are interested in the effects of inflation and interest rates, elevated inflation and the

with a great panel of current and former cbo officials. let me briefly introduce them and then we'll get right into it. so we have wendy edelberg was the director of the hamilton project and senior fellow of economic studies at the brookings institution and former chief economist at cbo. next we have phill swagel who's the current director of the congressional budget office, next to him doug holtz-eakin his the president of the american action forum and former cbo director. we have a lot to discuss so we're going to get right into it but as reminder please send in questions and we'll get to those later for the panel. okay. so to get started, a couple of the big topics and economics these days are inflation. we've heard about that this morning. so i think cbo has done the work on this recently, sent letters to senator crapo and ranking messersmith. can you elaborate about those letters and talk about if you can about some of cbpos updated thinking in the very? >> thank you, thanks, jeff. it's a pleasure to be here with wendy and died in the

i asked for a cbo score, this is going to cost $6 billion by $5 billion. we have an unfunded program in the postal service and will hurt our medicare recipients. this would not cost medicare anything so my amendment is simple. whatever the cost of medicare it should be paid by the postal service. the postal service retirees are to pay for it. i don't understand why we wouldn't want to do this. the cbo score is out there, it will increase the deficit and put medicare programs in worse shape. after ten years the numbers are worse than the numbers i told you about. why don't we vote on this committee or have the opportunity to do an amendment or vote on the floor, it is common sense. i would think all of us want to make sure we are not going to bankrupt medicare, or if it is going to cost medicare anything the postal service should pay for it. >> i stand to support the postal service bill, we are near the end of a long journey to help the postal service and the postmaster general to implement needed reforms. senator peters on the floor here, and i introduced

four years earlier than cbo had projected. madam acting director young, you and i have talked about the federal work force and the need to make recruitment a pop priority in retention, a top priority. i also-- i chair the financial services and general government precipitations subcommittee and have heard from lots of federal agencies about the concerns about the hiring process and how long it takes. i've also heard that from people applying for federal jobs. i know opm has a role in that area and so does omb. can you commit to working with us on the committee and opm to identify solutions for improving the merit-based hiring process? >> absolutely. look at the infrastructure law. we think we need at least 4,000 new federal employees just to implement that law, to opm and working with us and our deputy director for management, working on wavers and things we can do to bring people in faster. we do this in certain places as well, but we've got to do more to broaden. i've been a civil servant and you need an advanced degree in s

the ten-year up to 2 .5% today we'll ask the cbo director who is here in an exclusive. >>> plus the u.s. strikes a gas deal with europe lng stocks on the move you saw eqt. how much is priced in and how much isn't we've got the names that stand to benefit the most. >>> let's get to bob with the latest on these markets to kick things off today bob? >> and kelly, sort of flattish day. about even on the advanced decline line that's to be expected. we've moved 5 % on the s&p since the fed meeting last week. take a look at the stocks moving in the dow it tells the story on days where commodity stocks are up, the market tends to be pressure on it and that's true today. so chevron is up banks are up because bond yields are moving that's helping the overall market but you see industrials like caterpillar, tech like apple, home depot has not had a good run at all they the end to be flattish to the downside when the oil stocks are up the vix is well behaved. remember you crazy things were a couple weeks ago the vix went from 21 to 37, back to 21. a complete round trip on the vix. this is a all-cle

the cbo is underestimating the demand and cost of providing the program in build back better. it is a carefully crafted bipartisan compromise which established precedents already in place which could increase wages immediately. they are too broken to expand access to childcare while making it affordable for families.ld congress used it during the pandemic. to resource the example, georgia has eliminated co-pays, all staff including custodians, bus drivers will receive $3000 in supplemental wages. $ market stabilization dollars grants to its providers support for employee wages as georgia requires providers, and families with relief. georgia will serve an additional 10,000 children through september when funds end. georgia has increased provider reimbursement rates for all tears under the quality rating system by 15% and georgia increase income eligibility tof the maximum to median incomes. a few examples, the stimulus funds. a few last notes. with different application eligibility processes would be confusing for parents as they struggled finding quality childcare. it would ne

to the current law at least for starting point specifically cbo's july 21 baseline is a good place to start. let's look at the total deficits from the comparable time period. under the current law, the cbo says the cumulative deficit over this period of time will be $12.1 trillion. the budget calls for $14.000000000. how does the budget deficit window worsen by $2 trillion despite huge tax increases, how does that put us on a sustainable path? president biden's claim about the 21 and 22 deficits completely disingenuous and totally context free in 2020, congress passed five bills to respond to the public health and economic crisis posed by covid. and the trillion dollars of budget deficit for 2020 alone. of course it's important to remember that money was intended to be spent in 2020 then the democrats come along and passeds the bill in march 21 full of priorities completely unrelated and adding to the deficits at the time there was no economic justifications. that bill has subsequently proven to be a significant contributor to the inflation our country is experiencing. the decline fro

cbo confirmed it adds $3 trillion to our nation's debt. as gas prices have skyrocketed, the president's budget surrenders american energy independence and ta tacks energy companies so we are more reliant on foreign nations for our energy needs. more dependent on countries like russia, china, iran at a time when the world seems to be even more of a hostile place. this budget also includes potentially up to $4 trillion in tax increases. more than $1.5 trillion of that falling on american families. $2,000 for every average american tax increase is in this proposal. that is absolutely terrible. then under the build back better agenda, you have covered up in a deficit neutral reserve fund over the next ten years biden's budget calls for $58 trillion in total taxes. the highest tax burden in american history. and while folks see their taxes go up and the value of their paychecks go down, biden's budget gives a 12% raise to the irs to target hard working americans. we already know where this type of tax and spending agenda is going. look at the p

this is the cbo. medicare for all would save the american people and our entire health care system $650 billion each and every year, so i say to all my conservative friends that are worried about the curvature of taxpayer money, work with us to pass that single payer program. year after year, decade after decade, we're talking about the outrageous costs of prescription drugs in this country, and the huge profits of drug companies. the president has proposed and i agree that medicare must negotiate prescription drug prices with the pharmaceutical industry, which is exactly what the veterans administration has done for 30 years. if medicare does that, we lower the cost of prescription drugs by 50%, not ten. do we have the courage to take on the hundreds of millions of dollars in lobbyists all overkill telling us we have to protect the profits of the industry or do we stand with the patients and the americans sick and tired of paying these outrageous prices. then there is the threat of climate change. i

and when it happens, i promise you, cbo, morgan, crane will stop next day. ah, on february the 12th 2015, the mincing to agreement is signed, but the fighting continues with people can have different opinions about the course of events. but to me, it looks like an illegal unabashed open act of russian aggression against the sovereign ukraine. i did send his up at all nico than it is my daughter, unless i did it today from teacher's kid, could have done so. in that sense, earl's coalition, on the ceiling, you watching, we're going to go at each door dinner. nik i'm in dunlab. she taught, say you let's or i see a good i see as a who educator like that and know it than yourself to be as did absolute than you cook. we used to be domestic blue. i have seen in my own eyes is happening when a so called journalist come to dawn with the microphone and lie there talking about some arm and gas driving around and oppression, people wearing doughnuts with both of them. and i asked, where are they? why are you right like these? where are these? are made, gangs really show

and when it happens, i promise you, cbo, morgan, crane will stop next day. ah, on february the 12th 2015, the mincing to agreement is signed, but the fighting continues with people can have different opinions about the course of events. but to me, it looks like an illegal unabashed open act of russian aggression against the sovereign ukraine. i should send his up at all naked than him, but his mad tosto, unless i did it today from teachers could, could have done sco in law. not since earls coalition on the ceiling. you watching, we're good. not go at each door, didn't or nick amid, unless you taught saying you let's or i see a good i see as a who educator like that inlaw it than yourself to be as did absolute than you cook with history domestic blue. i have seen in my own eyes is happening when a so called journalist come to dawn with the microphone and lie there talking about some arm and gas driving around and or pressing people wearing donuts with both of them. and i asked, where are they? why are you right like these? where are these armed gangs really s

with all that he provided for cbo who said that he don't adamant because they not me to miss you. president, let them gentlemen who did her that her like you very much for being to submit here . falling this dance. i am a developer. he don't summit patrick mom let him president her she did. let's press the button about these experience about discussions of you, clinician as her week. he did a in this gallery of battle, sequel again, to think the local papers. all these 2 are the pictures drew loose, which was in the history of the 15 days to the federal choice law of russia, bringing back more to europe. he said, you know, faced with this, with this violence against ukraine and it's people, nuclear 2 and the tragedy for our in michael's history or, or fully aware or not. it's also gonna shoot a turning point for our societies, for our people there, for our european projects. weeks of responded to the 15 days have been doing it by the present as present. i've said this day with unity as far as beads and a spirit of responsibility. the choices were made quickly unfold articles and by you are

room at the beginning of the crisis so what this chart shows is where the actual gdp has been is the cbo projection in january 2020 and then a handful of projections from early in the crisis and you can see they were for gdp to continue even after the second quarter. and similarly, there is the unemployment rate the projection was to rise above 15%. these dire outcomes came in large part because of the extraordinary fiscal support they kept in place with varying degrees of success over 2020 and 2021 so we are certainly in the midst of an unwelcome inflation but this important backdrop should be kept in mind as we think about the trade-off of doing too much versus the doing too little. one of the biggest reasons we have seen the inflation is the extraordinary increase in consumer spending. overall it's been pretty robust over the course of the recovery but as you can see they are not particularly well labeled. [laughter] so you'll just have to trust me. [laughter] it's the most recent recovery. it's been much faster than previous recoveries. we have seen off the charts demands for goods i

the cbo year is interesting as well. you to date, this is the picture.ront end has moved significantly. only 36 basis points here. you wonder whether or not we are going to play catch-up. i want to wrap things up and show you what is happening. this is the opposite -- specific stocks story. look at the rearmament trade this quarter. producing armored vehicles for the german army. it is done really well. producing aircraft and helicopters. they have done really well. autumn in the market, you have the real story early on. down by 50%, quarter to date. significant exposure into the russian market. this quarter has been about the war and inflation. >> absolutely. if you want to switch that function to the one-day view, that would be h&m, down almost 12%. something like a tv year low. let's bring in miss with more on this story. russia is their sixth biggest market. how much can be blamed on the war, specifically? >> the biggest problem is that they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. it is weighing on one of their biggest markets, a big toll. there a

but the cbo says the single-payer option and then also reduce the quality of care.hose against their health insurance from places of work in the vast majority of them are pleased with coverage and their care with the employer-sponsored health plans and with the employer-sponsored health insurance and then 19 percent higher than those from obama care. congress should be looking for ways to improve the system. let's get the data and peel back the onion and find out who is getting the money and then rather than with that less effective system like medicare for all. there are many options to healthcare reform. and to allow small businesses and so proprietors to offer low-cost health insurance saving workers upwards of 50 percent of healthcare cost. look forward to working on these two expand access and improve the quality of employer-sponsored health coverage. thank you again to all the witnesses and it has been a pleasure thank you for contacting the state hearing and i back. >> forgive me for not paying attention. i apologize and thank you the subcommittee to be a mem

cbo confirmed it adds $3 trillion to our nation's debt. as gas prices have skyrocketed, the president's budget surrenders american energy independence and ta tacks energy companies so we are more reliant on foreign nations for our energy needs. more dependent on countries like russia, china, iran at a time when the world seems to be even more of a hostile place. this budget also includes potentially up to $4 trillion in tax increases. more than $1.5 trillion of that falling on american families. $2,000 for every average american tax increase is in this proposal. that is absolutely terrible. then under the build back better agenda, you have covered up in a deficit neutral reserve fund over the next ten years biden's budget calls for $58 trillion in total taxes. the highest tax burden in american history. and while folks see their taxes go up and the value of their paychecks go down, biden's budget gives a 12% raise to the irs to target hard working americans. we already know where this type of tax and spending agenda is going. look at the p

according to cbo estimates, it cost about $17,000 each year for a newly insured person. these subsidies are also inflationary, allowing insurers to raise premiums at taxpayers' expense. finally, some recommendations. congress should codify four of the previous administration's policies that expanded options without new federal spending. association health plans allow more small employers the ability to offer coverage to workers. short-term plans. individual coverage hras enable employers another way to offer health insurance through tax-deferred contributions that their workers use to buy coverage in the individual market. and price transparency rules, empower patients and employers to know prices before purchasing services. congress should maximize patient choice and reward value conscious decisions. americans should have the freedom to spend their own money on the health care and coverage they use. these policies provide a good start. i thank you again for the opportunity to testify today and look forward to your questions. >> dr. blaze, you get a gold star for perfect

childcare more affordable under this partisan plan are nothing but empty promises living in states cbo estimates in this new childcare about families have to budget their own budgets this partisan proposal will raise childcare costs by $13000 a year on middle-class families. raised by $13000 a year. finally faith-based providers have made it clear that this proposal will end the 30 year bipartisan agreement allowing religious providers to participate without compromising their religious mission. causing immediate harm to the 53% of parents who choose to use faith-based providers for their childcare. with all of these concerns raised we have two paths before street one path you continue to go alone. some will try to bully their own side into submission and yell at states and say they will not participate in pretend religious providers are wrong about their inability to participate in a polar lead designed proposal. or path to, the path our voters sent us up here to take come the table in a bipartisan way has been the history of this committee and seek common ground price still believe i

we saw the cbo numbers this week.ump administration that overspent and drove up inflation, so if inflation in prices and housing and in gas is because of deficit spending, that's trump's fault, and so the administration has not been nearly aggressive enough to explain what's actually going on. >> although if you look at the numbers, inflation really started to rise almost exactly when biden came in the white house. now obviously -- >> now that argues my point, doesn't it? >> but look at this chart on gas prices just since february. if you look -- it is a shocking increase that, you know, doesn't correspond. 46 >> can i just say, that is an artificially low price you're starting from and when you do inflation adjustment, this isn't the highest price we've had in the last 20 years. in fact, george herbert walker bush and under the george bush administration we had gas prices, inflation adjusted, over $5, but we're shocked because we got used to $2 gas. that's the problem. >> i also think it's worth recognizing, and ther

the cbo estimated the savings to be as much as $82 million. pleased to welcome a group of experts today who can have a unique perspective to for me presidential appointing process, address the growing number of federal vacancies, and incentivize every administration to quickly submit nominees. helping are nonpartisan basis we can examine the facts to ensure the federal government is able to better serve the american people for generations to come. now turn it over to the ranking member for his comments. >> having a chance to visit with the witnesses we spent a lot of time inventing executive nominees and part of her constitutional duty so this committee in particular sees a lot of nominees and the process can be long and difficult. i went to confirmationsat myself. to make sure they are well-qualified to servest the american people and just in the past year we have seen a number of troubling issues of nominees and the office of federal financial management is required by statute have a demonstrated ability and practical experience of financial

the cbo was anticipating the market is going to pay something like $445 billion a year just in intereststand over the next five years if that goes up by 50 basis points i think that amount jumps. what do you do how do you budget for this where are you expecting to see interest rates in terms of what you might be able to fit into the budget on what the government will pay in interest payments >> becky, if you look at last year's budget what you'll see is a projection over time interest rates would rise back to more normal levels. i mean, obviously, interest rates have been at rock bottom levels below most estimates of neutral for a very long time and there may be differences in the details, cbo and the administration in its budget projected rising interest rates. one way i think is quite good to measure the burden of the debt is by looking at net real interest payments. and that burden has actually been negative. and as interest rates rise back to more normal levels, and you can see this in the budget we put out last year, we project somewhat higher but still historically low debt in ter

one in spanish, chinese and russian with the trusted cbos. we had an online survey for a few months as well. we just closed that. through all of the other mechanisms included in the outreach summary in your packets. i am told my audio is scratchy. one part of this process. as noted e.p.a. c chair is with us to speak after this presentation. on behalf of staff i want to reiterate appreciation for time and dedication everyone put into this work. overall, from all of this outreach we heard a wide variety of feedback. there is the details summary in your packet as well. a couple of commonalities across the board such as desire to improve transit service and particularly street pedestrian bicycle safety. also the need to invest with equity at the forefront of the process. there are differences across different parts of the city where some areas of concerns about parking and traffic congestion. other areas were focused on street safety. the 2022 expenditure plan covers a broad range of exigible transportation project types including planning funds

one in spanish, chinese and russian with the trusted cbos.e survey for a few months as well. we just closed that. through all of the other mechanisms included in the outreach summary in your packets. i am told my audio is scratchy. one part of this process. as noted e.p.a. c chair is with us to speak after this presentation. on behalf of staff i want to reiterate appreciation for time and dedication everyone put into this work. overall, from all of this outreach we heard a wide variety of feedback. there is the details summary in your packet as well. a couple of commonalities across the board such as desire to improve transit service and particularly street pedestrian bicycle safety. also the need to invest with equity at the forefront of the process. there are differences across different parts of the city where some areas of concerns about parking and traffic congestion. other areas were focused on street safety. the 2022 expenditure plan covers a broad range of exigible transportation project types including planning funds for robust plann

one in spanish, chinese and russian with the trusted cbos. we had an online survey for a few months as well. we just closed that. through all of the other mechanisms included in the outreach summary in your packets. i am told my audio is scratchy. one part of this process. as noted e.p.a. c chair is with us to speak after this presentation. on behalf of staff i want to reiterate appreciation for time and dedication everyone put into this work. overall, from all of this outreach we heard a wide variety of feedback. there is the details summary in your packet as well. a couple of commonalities across the board such as desire to improve transit service and particularly street pedestrian bicycle safety. also the need to invest with equity at the forefront of the process. there are differences across different parts of the city where some areas of concerns about parking and traffic congestion. other areas were focused on street safety. the 2022 expenditure plan covers a broad range of exigible transportation project types including planning funds

sustainable program, sustainable ecosystem to support the program in the city side through the sponsor side, cbo side. >> is it also the program intended to protect senior citizens, older people, which i am, from being evicted because the rent has gone up. there is a market for the place that they are in with people who could pay much more? >> yes, vulnerable populations including persons with disabilities, senior citizens, low income, extremely low income households. [please stand by] the development are conditions to convert. they would have to have met a minimum debt ratio of 110%. through the covid update to our under rating requirements, we're increasing that. we're likely looking to increase that to potentially something even higher than that. the additional requirements would be the establishment of the required project reserves so that would be a replacement reserve to capitalize the building's needs establishment of an operating reserve. a standard of that of at least 25% of the buildings operating and debt service cost. that's another item that we've been looking to increase based on s

we understood that using the cbo scenarios alone that the increase per gallon from consumers to be anywhere from 30 to 50 cents. today, rin prices are driving up the cost of gasoline about 28.5 to 30 cents. as you can see this in something called the crack spread. i am mott going to bore you with this, but in a way, the crack spread is what it costs to take crude oil and turn it into gasoline, diesel fuel, and other petroleum products. you can see here that when we had a period -- i am to have -- leann is going to talk a lot about this. but when -- before anticipate changed the rule on how to treat the credits under the exemption, the rin program actually was -- the small refinder exemptions were driving down rin prices because it essentially drove down the volume. but that pam program has ended. kbid with the acceleration in prices as we come out of the covid, we now have very high rin prices in the u.s. and these are reflected in this chart. the other issue i would like to point out is that we are now entering a period of very high oil prices. and in this period preceding this, prices wer

we estimated using the cbo scenarios alone increase in the cost of the program for dell and to consumers could be anywhere from $.30-$.50. well, today the iran prices are driving up the cost of gasoline about 28 and a half cents. you can see this in something called the crack spread, i'm not going to bore you with this but in a way the spread is what it costs to take crude oil and turn it into gasoline diesel fuel and other petroleum products. you can see here when we had a period and helios want to talk about this but before epa changed the rules on how to treat the credits under the exemption, the rent program was brought as the sole refinery exemptions were driving down rent prices because it essentially increased the volume. but that program has ended. combined with the acceleration in prices to come out of the building we now have high prices and these are reflected. the other issue i want to point out is that we are now answering a period of very high oil prices. and in this period preceding this, prices were low and a lot of the costs were massed because of as ms. gore pointed out

nine senators want a cbo score before they vote for it, and senator braun told me moments ago that republicans label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. neil: more than two weeks in to the war in many ukraine, and is vladimir putin getting desperate and a whole lot frustrated, and could he do something like unthinkable use of chemical weapons? don't rule it out. they're fearing just that. david spunt at the state department. >> reporter: hi, neil. this was a worldwide threat series, the head of the fbi, the head of the national security agency, also the cia and the director of national intelligence grilled by u.s. senates on intelligence committee about what putin, as you mentioned, may be capable of. this was a worldwide thre

cbo confirmed it adds $3 trillion to our nation's debt. as gas prices have skyrocketed, the president's budget surrenders american energy independence and ta tacks energy companies so we are more reliant on foreign nations for our energy needs. francine: welcome to the european market open. a minute until the start of cash equities trading. i'm francine lacqua in london with tom mackenzie. tom: the 2 and 10 treasury curve inverts, reinforcing fears of a downturn. we get inflation parts from germany and spain today. the u.s. expresses skepticism as russia pledges to scale back military operations around kyiv. the great blockchain robbery. hackers stole $600 million in one of the biggest crypto heist sever. francine: that's the story i want to hear more about. the futures are wobbling a little bit. a technical term that we only use on wednesday. the dax is down. the focus is on the bond rout which has alleviated a little bit, and we will see how that plays out with the ceasefire which we could have or not. tom: it is a decent day for europea