also known as the cbo baseline. doctor swindle, your agency isn't indispensable partner to congress. and to the house budget committee, and in particular, i want to thank all of your dedicated staff for their hard work and putting out this report. we are holding this committee hearing a little later in the year than usual, since congress did not complete the fiscal year 2022 appropriations bill until march. in cbo needed those final funding levels to finish the outlook. today's hearing is still a great opportunity for us to examine cbos new projections for the next decade, as congress begins the -- 2023 budget and appropriations process. one comparing to cbos new outlook with the one published shortly after president biden took office. one thing is abundantly clear. the american rescue plan delivered critical, lifesaving and life-changing relief that changed the course of the pandemic, rescued our economy, and help american families and small businesses stay afloat. the american rescue plan -- the most equitable in

our economy is outpacing what cbo projected. rescue plan laid the foundation for american's unprecedented recovery in economic resilience and we are in a better place, we made incredible progress, inflation is the new challenge. i will reiterate what was across the ideological spectrum. international supply chain bottlenecks, higher energy costs due to russia's more in ukraine the primary drivers of inflation. these are global problems which is why inflation is a global issue. inflation in the uk is at a 40 year high last week. 38 member countries are averaging an inflation rate of 9%. clearly this inflation is not unique to the united states but the american rescue plan is. american families and state and local governments, facing new challenges in a position of economic strength, it is necessary, the federal reserve and best position to tackle immediate inflation concern, congress can and must do everything it can to lower costs overall. healthcare housing or childcare have been rising for decades. they passed legislation to l

cbo predicted the government would spend 61 trillion and cbo predicted the government would roundve up just over 12 trillion in deficits over the next ten years. now they say it will be close to 16 trillion. when biden entered office, cbo predicted the government would spend 4.6 trillion on interest payments over the next ten years. ennow they say it will be over 8 trillion when biden entered office, cbo predicted the average interest rate to be 2.5% over the next ten years. now they say it will be 3.5%. the prediction for this year has nearly doubled from 1.3%. it's 4.7 this year but inflation has already increased by almost 4% in 2022 and also perhaps eroverly optimistic the growth prediction is projected to be 3.1% this year b but gdp declind by 1.4% in the first quarter. under every metric president biden has worsened the balance sheet of the federal government ainto the economic outlook for the country and the fiscal health of the american families so how did we get here, democrats passed the $2 trillion american rescue plan even though the economy was on its way to recovery.on de

please know that cbos have a month lag in the cbos entering data into our system. if you want to know more and have more information about any of the cbos, we have a very detailed list of all of our cbos, the performance measures as well as the data on our website. and we were also asked for our opinions on some of the recommend dagss that were in the report. first recommendation was for the family-based services. and i will say, of course, i fully support having more services for our families. currently dcys and juvenile probation are funding a pilot project that is a community-based, licensed foster family agency program. the agency we are working with is called alternative family services and they provide emergency and long-term placements for youth ordered to out of home placements by the courts and there are a total of 7 licensed and intensive foster care beds available for our san francisco youth and the pilot project. pretty soon, dcyf will be release the rfp to expand the justice involved young people and families. the types of services we will be included

next decade one of the cbo projections will triple to $1.2 trillion. but that's assuming -- that's assuming federal debt remains in a range of 2.4% to 3.8%. that's the cbo's projections to get to debt payments increasing to $1.2 trillion by the end of the decade we're sitting here at a period of time when the ten-year treasury yield has crossed 3%. 3.16%, i believe, as of yesterday. a year ago that was 1.48%. so we're already approaching the high interest rate threshold that cbo has for interest on the debt to triple do you project that interest payments on the debt, the interest payment number that's impacted by the interest rates set by the fed will remain in a range of 2.4% to 2.8% or will dramatically be above that >> we don't publish projections on treasury rates. >> so as interest rates are moving, as you're doing, i think appropriately so, to address the inflation environment that we're in, the federal reserve doesn't project the cost on the debt moving forward >> internally. we don't publish, as i said. internally we have a path for the ten yea

you said that was the least possible cbo forecast you could remember in 40 years. expand on that a little bit. why do you think it was so wrong? mr. summers: in fairness, i think the cbo has been a bastion of credibility over time. most of its forecasts have been reasonable and honest and very sound. the worst prediction by the cbo is like lebron james's worst game, there is little for it to be compared to. i go back to the basic object -- the basic logic of economics. one says that wage inflation is unlikely to slow -- is likely to slow -- another way of looking at this is to look at the behaviors of interest rates. economists focus on the real interest rate, the interest rate subtracting the inflation rate, the purchasing power. those are at extra ordinary low levels. usually easy money is manifest in low interest rates shows up as higher inflation. in the absence of positive real interest rates in the presence of overheated labor markets, i am not sure why one would form as one's best guest -- best guess the economy would be strong and inflation would not come d

cbo projects a net interest payment on the debt of $8.1 trillion over 10 years. and that would be $1.9 trillion higher than previously or due to the increase in inflation that is projected. that in my mind is money that is especially wasted because we have to because we have to pay because of inflation increases. i wonder as we talk about inflation and certainly our priority as representatives is the price of that that citizens are incurring when they go to the pump, grocery store, etc., but what is the delta you have on the increased cost on running our government and the cost that we as a government have buying everything now due to this inflation that if inflation was at in previous levels, we would not have? dir. swagel: it is an important one. the u.s. government buys a wide range of goods and services. it pays salaries, buys jet fuel, buys everything. it has an important impact on spending. there is revenue impact as well based on wages. and the interest payments go up so that inflation has an important impact on the government. we have not looked at just t

according to cbo, interest payments on debt are the fastest growing part. it will cost taxpayers $8.1 trillion. there inflation assumptions are projected interest rates at fairly lower levels, lower than where rates are likely headed to get inflation under control. i thank you for your efforts to get inflation under control, but for have very -- for every half percentage rate hike, that is 133 billion dollars in annual increases in debt servicing costs. that is a staggering amount of money. we must get our fiscal house in order. there is no other option. if we continue on our current trajectory, that will not be a given. my question is, are you worried that if our current path continues, which i should note, with every rate hike, it looks worse and worse. the dollar's position in the world could be challenged in the long term, is that a concern? chair powell: in the long term. the dollar is the reserve currency. i do not see it as under threat at the moment, given the advantages we have, which are many great you are right, the u.s. federal budget is on a un

even the non-partisan cbo knows a train wreck when she sight.are blaming biden for the economic crisis. quote, the cbo noted the stimulus checks significantly boosts demand caution inflationary pressure. by paying workers not to work, the stimulus art fissionly slowed the recovery. well, golly, who knew it. paying people not to work to produce stuff that the money would buy would cause inflation. none of that matters now. the only thing the left wants to talk about are the problems government wants you to think it can fix. and want to rule by executive order, new legislation. it will just make problems worse. but biden's ex keys and blame are pathetic. remember the big energy companies that refused to use their permit to drill? the greedy oil and gas companies had a bunch of permits they didn't use but weren't greedy enough to use them. the billionaires. the blame game never stops. here from the "washington examiner." according to the cbo, federal court income tax collection before the rate cut came in at $297 billion. by 2021 they jumped to $27

guest: cbo is never going to get spot on.y don't try to assume exact where the economy is going. they don't try to predict there is going to be an invasion by another country or a huge recession or a massive, unprecedented global pandemic get they don't even pretend to try to calculate when they will be the normal recessions we see. so certainly cbo is never going to get year-by-year numbers right. but what they do in addition to looking at the overall projections for the 10 year, which are directionally correct, they also look at the cost of a lot of different legislation proposed by congress. if you don't have a price tag attached to it, you think it is free, so those numbers tend to be pretty good. their overall projections miss as anybody would, but they don't miss for political reasons, and in this town there's a lot of politics driving some of the estimates out there. host: that's the next question. what do you think numbers of congress should do with this document, and what do you think they will do? guest: what they s

i know that you have a variety of ways to educate some of your users and customers on cbo products >>ducation is part of cbo since we started in 1973 we think the educated investors is one that's a sustainable investor for the long term super important for us, and as you bring up education and the chains that options allow in the portfolio it's not just being long and short the payout scheme is much different than options and there is a product and versatile approach to investing in every marketplace. >> cash settlement maybe quickly give an explanation for our viewers. there are many contracts that trade on the s&p 500 yours is unique in certain ways. >> so we are a security version of the s&p 500 across the street you can trade on the futureus side, most investors find it through spdrs and etf. the most popular etf in the country, but we do trade the cash settled version here tends to be institutionally based, but we just launched a new product called nanos which is a bite-size version of the s&p 500 directly designed for that new retail investor. that's been a huge plus because whe

i have never really added up from a cbo perspective. i'm always looking at what's going on with the deficits and the dead. they have never really made sense. they have simultaneously been too broad so it doesn't do any one thing right. collectively all they have really done is add new social welfare programs to an economy that can't pay for the ones it has. i would rather see them spend their time fixing social security for the long-term and taking care of medicaid and medicare. host: henry is in michigan on the line for democrats. caller: hello. i have two quick comments and that i will ask a question.

the projections of cbo interest over the next decade, one of the cbo projects that it will triple to 1.2 trillion dollars, that is assuming, that is assuming federal debt remains in a range of 2.4% to 3.8%. that is the cbo's projections to get to debt payments increasing to 1.2 trillion by the end of the decade. we are sitting here at a period of time when the ten-year treasury yield has crossed 3%. 3.1 6% as of yesterday. a year ago that was 1.4 8%, we are already approaching the high interest rate threshold that cbo has, or interest on the debt to triple. do you project that interest payments on the debt, the interest payment number that is impacted by the interest rate set by the fed will remain in a range of 2.4 to 3.8%? do you believe it will dramatically be above that? >> where do not publish projections on treasury rates. >> as interest rates are moving, as you are doing at to address the middle interest rates we are in. the federal reserve does not protect the cost on the debts moving forward? >> internally, we do not publish, it is what i said. internally we do have a path f

a nuclear because i'm a block i live, a budget is pretty busy and i'm scared with really it goes by cbo with the city. it's because it's like you can literally a keep it you get that good. that of course tell you that it is. we did the small one because you have to does he owe union a got us because you're with worse. mike, what you were before for you, i was a dollar before the school confirmed to the next will, is there to there a little really poor casa for her. you know, if you could use a dollar, you talked about you as a told are children, shoot us with me. wash my, proceed with the news to later on. you still love what door at all for his live dinner. persuaded detroit any better. motion is, i mean you're probably isn't really short on the phone talk to push my daughter is she on the breeze can year? well, i look with that well, these to below abuse and that a minute piece to reduce your lawsuit because the yeah. the new political invasion . well, so far for coursework, good us deal as off commute, criminal government as often as deal issue enough for you to preserve the fuel pus

the cbo projections, to increase $1.2 trillion by the end of the decade. the 10 year treasury yield crossed 3%, 3.6% as of yesterday. we are already approaching the high interest rate threshold that cbo has. do you project interest payments on the interest payment number will remain in range of 2.4% to 3.8% or will it be above that? >> we don't publish projections on that. >> as interest rates are moving, to address inflation environment we are in. the federal reserve doesn't project the cost on the debt moving forward. >> we don't publish but internally we do, a path for the 10 year and for many years it always showed rates returning and even higher. we assume over time we are reversing, shrinking our balance sheet by $1 trillion a year. that puts pressure on rates. it's not our business to project this but our assumptions are that rates return to levels that are somewhat higher. >> i'm concerned we will see interest rates remain high. the committee for responsible federal budget notes 50%, 50 basis points to one hundred $43 billion a year and i'm concern

it's clear, but with really it's just by cbo with the city, it's because of the institute mind. you can literally a living with nicki pitiless. yet it's good that the course town for the thing is we did a little smaller because you have to wait to hear yes, a lot of because with so dorothy period don't play southwest my court year before figured he was dead. numeracy julia controller, one book when a script, i'm still there, correct will. is there to the for both alone in the pool because off again. yes, you can do is almost like really for dollars. you thank you, right? you is a toll don't children? shoot us. we'll talk opinion will and your partner put on gloomy voicemail. proceed with the news to later on. you still love it. what door to for what is live in there? precisely. detroit, any better motion is, i mean, your little problem is a short done for question to address. yeah. and they believe can year, well, the 3rd will these to bill or abuse and that my new piece to discuss it please. because the yeah, the new political version will so far for coursework, gets us deal as

>> again i'm going to leave that to the cbo to score. at office of management and budget we don't score proposed congressional -- we remain independent. to s be independent we need to e out of these very difficult disclosures which is really your job. >> thank you chair powell. i yield back. >> the gentlewoman for massachusetts ms. pressley is recognized for five minutes. >> thank you madam chair. senator powell without question that has a role to play in healing our economy that treatment or wrong medication can cause even more harm and make the patient even more ill.i senator powell your your latest press companies to to quote wages are not principally responsible for the inflation wu are seeing end quote. i certainly agree with that assessment is an economist. considering what wages are not driving inflation why is the fed addressing inflation with tools which primarily impact wages suchre as interest-rate? >> are tools principally affect inflation and not necessarily wage inflation so our job is price inflation. i will say on wage in

you don't know what each group by cbo are, but still with us fellowship momentum. no. oh sure. what was it deal with when you minute at machine? away in the solution. william with miss rosa sets it up in the machine at a bundled ocean. and he's there with me. and it's a tech, and the movie was shim investment like a a a with because all we knew knew will be what noonish though. yeah. me and they, and i see they got any of the dealer. what players are well, unable to read this way on those with miss it down to them, i believe was it is a bit to show the point, you know what i see? and then what is it that we do it when i asked him to say like, what would be where to go to look when a student, when a student below it, but don't go to initial class. and that'll, that'll de elena this to let you know that i didn't have a job with them. go to the quiz, you still get the b, b to absolute, the initial number still, you know, get done for us to really what it on pledge you are. okay. with it and then the road did ancient study go directly there when it was you see any thought debility

and this year they really made an emphasis working with cbo's to partner and receive higher participation rates in our underserved communities so that was a challenge so when they looked at the maps and saw where we were getting participation for our green business programs, they were hold within neighborhoods like the bay view and the mission excel yes, sir so the team did an outstanding job working with cbo's to conduct that outreach so they worked with a number of nonprofits and signed up nine new ones which are neighborhoods of high pollution at vernon and 22 that are insign they're starting to make a difference and again, that direct outreach using trusted partners within the community to start turning the page there. as we discussed at our may 10th meeting, we're going to start reporting regularly on our ethnics so the three updates we have for this period, we did have all of you fill out your form 700 and myself and the -- designated staff in the department so we hit all deadlines and as a follow up to how discussion, we're working on identifying those additional individuals requir

a live with it, i was by see rome, but almost we but if you know that she's yet a b, b a u a d h by cbo, but i'm still with felicia. my mental no. oh sure. what was your deal with when you minute machine is away in the solution away in with this stuff sets of stuff in the machine that they run the ocean and do it. and then we meet the needs to the low tech and the who will be with with, with a, with scully, new in the new will be what noonish though. yeah. me and they, unless they got any of the deal, what plays am ayana's video is miss it down to them. i really was, it is a bit. it shows a bunch of with know what i see and the more that i would do it when i sample silica, what would be where to go to look when it, when i system, when i started it load it. but don't go to initial class in the middle of the night element this still it no, yeah, they didn't have a job with them. go to that equation, stalkers did be to absolute, then sure. the will you know, get done for us to really what it, i'm glad you are all kid um with it in the road. it has the engine study. go directly down there w

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but almost so we're, but if you know that she shut a, b, b a u, a d h by cbo are both filled with a felicia. my mental good. oh sure. what was your deal when you money at the machine? away in the ssl issue for william with you in the machine. it, it, they, when the ocean is the way it's and me. and it's that it can be a way of shipping. is that like with with all we knew new will be what new and you said me and they, unless you, they got any of the dealer. what plays them as valuable as it is miss it? down to them i believe was 8, is the 3 that show those 3 staples one bit. if so, the point you know what i see and the motor that i would do it when i sample silica, what would be where to go to look when it, when i system, when i started to load it, but don't go to the next, the middle, the night element this to let you know that i didn't have a job with him. go to that. the quiz. you still get the b b to absolute, then sure the will you know, get done. plus to really will it? i'm play g are all kid. i'm with it in the, in the road. it is engine study. go directly there when it was a sure we

but if you have a, b, a u, a d h group by cbo, are both filled with osha, my mental issue, but you deal with when you money at the machine away in the solution. william the this for success to death in the machine. it, it, they, when the ocean is the way it needs to be, well, similar, this network with with all we knew it will be what noonish let me and they, and i see they got any of the dealer. what plays them? well, i'm going to miss it. down to them, i believe it is the 3 that show those 3 staples one bit. show the point, you know what i see and the motor that i would do it when i sample silica. what would be where to go to look when this is to load it, but don't talk about it a little bit lower than the limit this to leave. you know, the job with them go to the quiz. you still get the b, b to absolute. the initial, a, g, or all kit, i'm with it in the road. it engine study. go directly there. when it was a sure we did it. there's a double additional in the step in the loop with medium, but it is gonna blend. they go by this. so initially, i mean if you were open not the, the, the p

but if it has a b a you did that, you would know what each group by cbo, but i'm still with the photo shoe, my mental emotional buzz you deal with when you minute at machine the oh and the solution william with this stuff, sets it up in the machine that they, when the ocean is the way it's and then we meet the needs to be with, with, with a, [000:00:00;00] with all we knew it will be what noonish let me unless it any it, what plays them as well as with miss it down to them i believe was it is a bit it shows a bunch of with no, let's hear the motor that we do it. when i sample silica what will be where to go to look when this is to go it it, but don't go to initial class a little bit lower than the element this still it no, yeah, they didn't have a job with them. go to that equation storage d b b to absolute then sure the will you know, get the um for us to really with are okie done with it in the road. it has the engine study. go directly down there when it was a sure we did it. there's a double additionally, not that the ability to move in with them, but it is complaining about this.

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you would know what each group by cbo are both filled with. uh, felicia, my mental model. oh sure. but the deal when you money at machine you are in the sole issue. way in with, in the machine it, it, they, when the ocean is the weights and then with who will be why it's not like a, a a, with all we knew it will be what a deal or what plays them. well, unless you miss it down to them, i believe it is a bit. it shows a bunch of, you know what i see in the motor that i would do it. when i say it was a little, what would be where to go to look when it, when i started, when i started to load it, but don't go to the next, the little bit of the element this to leave, you know, the job with them go to the quiz, you still push the be to absolute initial a g r o key with it in the, in the ancient study go directly. or when it was a sure we did it. toys is thought to please your stockers doesn't allow unless you're with a double or dis, knowing that the real estate in reality, if you move in with us with medium, what it is complaining, go a biased so initially, i mean, if you were open not t

you know that she shut a b, i was a british, legally up there, you there, you know what each group by cbo are both filled with a felicia, my mental social but you deal with when you money at the machine away in the full issue we're way in the property with this for stuff that's a tough in the machine. it, they, when the ocean is the way it's and me, and it's that a low tech and the who would be a way of shipping just that, like with a, with all we knew it will be what noonish let me and they, and i see they got any of the dealer, what plays them as valuable as it is miss it? down to them i believe was 8, is a 3 now. so those 3 state that was one bit. if so, the point you know what i see and the motor that i would do it when i sample silica, what would be where to go to look when this is to blow it. but don't go a little bit lower than the element this to let you know that i didn't have a job with him. go to that. the quiz, you still get the b b to absolute, then sure the will you know, get done for us to really will it? i'm play g are all kit. i'm with it in the road. it is engine study.

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