this morning to cbo released this summer update to our budget and economic outlook.i'd like to briefly summarize the report and then my colleagues and i will be happy to try to answer your questions. the united states is facing profound budgetary and economic challenges. cbo estimates that the budget deficit this year will be about $1.3 trillion, which equals eight points 5% of the country's total economic output, or gdp. that deficit stems in part from the long shadow cast on u.s. economy by the financial crisis and the recent recession. although output began to expand two years ago, the pace of the recovery has been slow. and the economy remains mired in a severe slump. cbo expects that recovery will continue, but that output will stay well below the economy's potential output, in an amount that corresponds a high rate of use of capital and labor for several years. coo initially completed its economic forecast in early july. we later updated the forecast to reflect the policy changes enacted in the budget control act of 2011. but we did not have time to include oth

in addition, cbo assumes expenditures per oca enrollee

. >> this morning, the cbo released an update.ze the report and then my colleagues and i will be happy to try and answer your questions. the united states is facing profound budgetary and economic challenges. cbo estimates the budget deficit this year will be about one. dollar trillion, which -- $1.30 trillion. that deficit stems in part from the long shadow cast of the u.s. economy by the financial crisis and the recent recession. although output began to expand two years ago, and the pace of the recovery has been slow in the economy remains mired in a severe slump. cbo expects that recovery will continue but output will remain below the potential output, an amount that corresponds to a high rate of use of labor and capital for several years. cbo initially completed its economic forecast in early july. we later updated the forecast to reflect the policy changes enacted in the budget control act of 2011, but we did not have time to include other news, including a recent swing in financial markets. on the basis of the data availabl

the cbo recognizes that. an additional $10 trillion more is projected in debt over the next 10 years. et obama budget. that's his budget. the cbo projects it to be 1.2 trillion. with a t. more than obama had projected. so we have got big problems here the problem dr. obama a patient who is suffering bleeding to death. hemorrhaging. also suffering from terminal cancer in forms of entitlement spending. long term has to be fixed. his proposal is essentially take leaches on the bleeding, suck it up in the form of higher taxes and more spending obviously it's not working in terms of the economy and also not working politically right now. >> what's the biggest threat here? >> short-term and long term. byron york did a piece "the weekly standard." "the washington examiner." talked about saying the real issue. can't worry about the long-term problem. we have got to focus on spending. is he right but you really have to do both. you have got to focus on right now the most immediate problem is debt spending. there is no

that was the year that cbo was created and that the cbo's rules were put in place so that they could say it decreased to an increase was a decrease. nobody else words like that, greta. there is not up family or a charity evening that does a decrease from the increase even though it is still increasing as a decrease. nobody does that but we do. this is too serious problem not to deal with the problem realistically. and also if legislation would cap spending by a congress, gramm-rudman would have worked. it did not. there are other places. if you want to get around caps in this bill, there is one way that does that -- emergency. and 2010, we even had some massive spending that was called emergency even though it was for census. we of known every 10 years since the country was created we would have a census. we call that emergency. so the balanced budget amendment, it was the only way that we would ever be able to restrain a congress, they could not restrain itself. so on friday, when speaker boehner changed his bill from thursday, made it a whole new bill on friday, added a requirement

the cbo s can do something and the police. i worked so hard with that parent and inspectors. not a single person has mentioned parent. how can we make them accountable. >> i just needed to put that the word parent out there. we need to make more accountability. most of the kids are reacting. my kid, has severe ptsd. unless we can heal the wounds. it's not just on the streets of sunnydale. >> yes. the family, what makes up a family, parents children. ultimately, we have to also deal with our families who have their children who are placed with these acronyms over their head that follows them all through their lives. when working with the child. not only are we working with the families and their friends and the places they go before they get home. so the ultimate thing is building that family unit. i was going to run to that. life goes on. we all have a duty not just to the child. but to the family. because the child comes from a family and most the children that we're working with. the families are broken. the homes are broken. so they lived through this years and years. the

they are about our relationship with cbos. however, any actual contracts such as those you saw, they have to come back. this does not authorize the staff to pay money to the cbo's without authorization by the board, so i thank you for the question. i wanted to clarify for myself, which is as i thought it was. for me that was resolved spirit of my question about -- that was resolved. my question about 2-e was about transportation services, the medical transportation services for special aided, and there waa question raised to me about the bidding process. as i understand it, we got a letter. during the bidding process, one bidder had been given notice they had won the bid, and the process was reopened again, apparently because of a complaint by another bidder, and after the same organization and also submitted the lowest dibid it was given to someone else, so there was some question about the issue, and i see the bitter in question has been judged to be non-compliant, and i just have questions about the process, whether it has

so it's a matter of coordinating the court's with with the cbo mediation. so have you a problem of lack of coordination where you have some great programs but they are not supported by the court. juvenile probation. they do need to work together that is respected and used by all the agencies. otherwise students don't believe in these. in the school district doesn't follow or adhere to the outcome. >> thank you. questions? >> i go to civic center secondary school. i was wondering what quality sources do have you for young women? >> we have the wellness center that provides a lot of youth lines and they also provide you with girl's group. i know we have mission's group. there were 4 girls for different ages of girls. they taught us about pregnancy and birth controls and a lot of stuff like that. so the wellness center is something that helps >> at the middle school level, we have safe passage centers. we have all kinds of different community groups coming in to help us with interest around stopping violence, helping kids feel better about themselves and their

host: looking at the cbo report. there will be a new record this year in a lead editorial from "the wall street journal." host: what do you make of the approach in france? guest: the money gets spent and they go and spend some more. when you raise tax rates, you reduce incentives. john kennedy understood reducing tax rates helps the economy. reagan understood it. bill clinton reduced the capital gains tax. he raised the income tax. it did good for the economy. rather than pick more money out of the pockets of the american people, i think we would do far better by creating conditions for economic growth were the revenue comes from a more vibrant economy rather than taking people's pockets. a prime example. great britain has raise taxes on income and raise capital gains taxes and reduced their bit ande tax kila little their economy has stalled. other economies resisted the call for higher taxes. those countries are growing again. host: next call, pasadena, maryland, sandra. caller: i was for you back in 2000 with your

cbo. goes to the white house for a little chat and few days later, well, the way the president's numbers, they just might work out after all. i'm telling you, i take it from someone who is an italian american. >> i'm half. >> and that's all i'm saying, all i'm saying. >> you know, neil, i have been in a position where i've worked in it, where i ran a government that had to be rated and when we had problems with the rating agencies we went in and spoke with him and show showed where our numbers differed and tried to work out a solution. what's happening here, i can't buy it. i believe that s & p saw it and s & p downgraded us to jump the gun. >> what government were you running. >> the chief deputy nassau county and we ran into numbers all the time. >> nassau county. >> i'm working with that and working it out with my head and anyway, it's not just investors, shoppers are getting pinched as prices on everything rise. do they need to come down before the jobs are back? the forbes gang is on

the cbo does not -- that is not true. >> sean: not true?hat's what i've been reading all day. >> i know. the cbo baseline assumes that. current law -- this bill doesn't address tax policy. this bill cuts spending. this bill is scored as cutting $2.1 trillion to $2.4 trillion in spending. >> sean: right. >> the bush tax cuts going away, and more. this doesn't change current law on taxes. this changes current law on spending only. >> sean: all right. i guess the problem is, and i've been trying to explain this -- you know this as well as anybody. and this is the problem i have with the bill, i agree there's been changes, there's no tax increases here. i was very happy with the house. i want to be clear about this, about repealing obama care, about passing your plan, about passing cap and tax. i felt that strategically and tactically -- and tell me where i'm wrong here -- that when the competing bills came out, the gang of six, the mcconnell plan, and the president had alternatives that the one bill we should have focused on the most didn't ge

cbo projecting 8% or higher unemployment rate through 2014. we know what that means for you. what does it mean about the presidential race? today former former senior adviser to president bush and author of courage and consequence, karl rove went on the record. nice to see you. >> nice to see you. >> greta: reports today cbo says not to expect employment to fall below 8% by 2014 which is two years behind the 2012 elect. how much attention do you think the white house and the campaign for president obama is paying attention to that report? >> it is a problematic one. because it also mimics similar analysis from the federal reserve and private sector. there seems to be a consensus among economists that the unemployment rate today at 9.1% is likely to be in the range of 8.5% by election day. part of the drop between 9.1 and 8.5 is going to be we are going to have a large number of workers who are so discouraged, they are going to dropout of the workforce and look like an improvement in the number. >> greta: what i would do if i were running on that issue, running the president's

you have heard that the cbo score has come out.eaction to how michele bachmann is saying she is going to vote no on this. where do you stand? >> i will be supporting this bill like i supported the boehner bill. the reason for that is there was no way we were going to get everything we wanted. this is far from perfect. am i happy over this? no but it is a still in the right direction. for the first time, we are getting serious about cutting our spending. for the first time in history, i think it is historic. it is historic, we are going to increase the debt ceiling, yes, but we are going to have more in cuts than we are increasing the debt ceiling. that's never been done in our history. that is a step in the right direction. >> sir, you were ushered into your seat through tea party support. do you think that the overall reaction to what's happening with the tea party, their representation in the house as it is, is going to be something that people look upon favorably when they see a deal like this going through or is there sort sort

in fact -- by the way, interestingly, doug, a former excellent director of the cbo.eleased analysis this week showing that the recovery act is kind of fading out of the system helped shave about two percentage poits off the unemployment rate. that helped. all of that stuff stopped way too soon and we have to do more on the targeted jobs program side to give those folks leverage, a little more income in their paychecks and pocket, a little better outlook on the job market to both go out, contributed to the economy and bring their balance sheet back in line. >> ewant to give you -- i want to give you the last word on this. i'd love it if you could address the housing crisis. we hear proposals, considering to try and let folks refinance even those under water at these low rates. do you have a benevolent dictator housing -- >> i do not believe there is any large scale housing policy that would be effective and timely in a macro sense that it's politically feasible. the things we propose on the campaign turned out to be unpop harry lar. the reality is, we will fix the hou

that could lead to different result than what the cbo predicted. >> how the bill will be implemented is different from how the congressional budget office and joint committee on taxation assumes that the bill would be implemented. if the bill is implemented in the way we expect it to be implemented, then it will be likely increase the cost of the bill by $50 billion per year after the premium tax credit come online in 2014. >> the white house is disputing the original story that unveiled finding of the new study saying, "this story is not accurate. the affordable care act will extend coverage to millions of americans and bring down the cost of healthcare for all of us." additional details regarding the inple mennation of the law will be considered in future regulation. most of the regulations will come from h.h.s and secretary sebelius. the premium tax dread that are the subject of the new analysis are scheduled to kick in like many of the law's key provisions in 2014. bret? >> thank you. >> bret: brawnback is returning a grant to help them set up health insurance exchange because of

would you agree that cbo said the new health care law increases premiums by about 13%? >> well, as you point out, there's a number of moving parts in the cbo analysis, and they did analysis for the individual small group and large group markets. with respect to the large group market, there were factors that could lead to increases in factors that lead to decreases. for example, in the small group market, i think it was a wash or to the good for the small group market, particularly because of the efficiencies that small businesses are going to get. again, i think it was similar for the large group market as well. with respect to the individual market, i don't recall exactly, again, as you point out, there's moving parts, certain aspects of it by improving the risk pool and getting more healthy people into the risk pool to improve the overall experience of the individual market, and then there were some additional benefits that would move in the other direction, so i don't recall the exact pluses and minuses that were in the cbo report, but i think, you know, we certainl

have somebody at their side all the time to help with the needs of the student and the principle and cbo get up and meet every morning. they were total partners in making this a community school. then i will be through. i had the opportunity to go to another school at 9 o'clock at night where i thought it was going to be closed. i walk into the school in upper manhattan and it is lit up like a christmas tree. we have to light up every school. it changed the whole neighborhood. it was a beacon of wonderfulness. it was full of activity. of young people. parents. esl. everything. i got so excited about the potential could be. and it changed the neighborhood and young people. if you want to talk about safety. i think we can make a joint commitment to this philosophy and start making it happen in san francisco. >> i really, i completely agree with margaret. when you look at this list, the reason some schools have this is because those schools go out and hustle funds. we are blessed because d.c. yf. we have the city that helps us. we have prop h. but the reality, the bottom route is our state

ezrick, i want to get your numbers on the cbo. good news or bad news?t affect the president in any way at any time or in the future. these projections change a little bit year to year as the economy gets a little bit better. we've lopped a little off the budget. that could, of course, change, but these numbers are so big that these changes don't affect the way the public understands them, and because they don't affect the economy, the cbc not expecting a big drop. >> i want to highlight some of the numbers when it comes to the president and debt. $4 trillion in debt since he took office. almost triple the number when president bush was in office. how big will this factor into his reelection bid? >> it will be certainly an issue, but i would just go back and say some of it is the prescription drug benefit, not much. some of it is the wars, not much of it. a lot of it is the bush tax cuts. when you have an economic collapse like we have, spending goes up because they need all this help, and revenue goes down because they lose their jobs and they don't hav

they were supposed to the cbo, congressional budget office.had a wonderful thing at what they up in 195 as a part of the congress that in 92, which was the safety and soundness act that created a new regulator for fannie freddie, treasury, gao and cbo. cbo took a job job of analyzing how rich the subsidy was from the government that fannie mae received. there were visited by fannie mae executives. june o'neill was that he cbo at the time that like they were being visited by the mafia. she was pressured to try to water it down, not to produce a report that is very explicit but how much they guarantee was worth to the company and how at all costs they had to protect it. so we have cbo people who are standing up against the pressure from fannie mae. there were other people who saw what was coming. people in the georgia area were first to wave the flag and call it the rating agencies for inserting themselves in a process, where georgia had the most, toughest predatory lending law and the country, but the ratings agencies what him and said will not

i particularly want to thank the cbo's and especially those that had to hear my speech 25,000 times. they got its embedded in there, but all of you know that i felt that personally, that if we do not have a safe city, we do not have a solvent city, we will not have a successful city. that has been reflective of everything we have done. to the community-based organizations, thank you very much for working very closely with us and the board of supervisors. the controller's office, of course -- [applause] of course, we worked very hard with our controller's office did not want to thank ben and moni que and the budget analysis division staff for constantly working with this. they obviously were working over ours as well to make sure they understood and analyzed everything we did and the outcomes. i also wanted to thank the department of human-resources. mickey and martin. we call them the mickey and martin show. they were there, too, at the 10 community-based meetings that we had. they showed up there with departments, and there were always there to help me explain the repercussions of e

the cbo has estimated that by 2021, the interest on the federal debt will be over $1 trillion per year we are talking about $48 million in fiscal year 2011 to feed the simoleons, plus another $76 million to feed refugees. it is so small. a caricature is often painted about what u.s. humanitarian ford paid -- foreign aid is vis- À-vis the rest of the budget. $48 million, and that number will go up, but not that substantially. >> u.s. data came down almost 90% -- u.s. aid came down almost 90% after al-shabab was listed as a terrorist organization and aid groups were concerned about working in an area where they could face prosecution for aiding a terrorist organization and u.s. aid came down hugely, 90%. isn't the media really much greater -- the need really much greater than the $48 million? >> the navy is much greater. -- the need is much greater. although, many people have left somalia for places like kenya. world food program says it does a 6-jobs all over the world. and doest are there -- a significant job all over the world. ngo's that are there are doing a good job, but the respon

the cbo has estimated by 2021, the interest on the federal debt will be over $1 trillion per year. $48 milliong about in 2011 to feed the simoleons plus another $76 million for refugees. it is so small. it is so small compared to the rest of the budget. it is $40 million. that number will go up. it will not go up substantially. >> is it $48 million because u.s. aid came down almost 90% after al-shabab was listed as a terrorist organization? aid groups got concerned about working in an area where they could face prosecution for enriching or aiding a terrorist organization. usaid came down 90%. is the need much greater than $48 million? >> is much greater. we were at $400 million in 2009. that has dropped to under $100 million. refugees are a different group. a lot of those are in kenya who have left somalia. the key is helping humanitarian organizations. the world through program does a magnificent job all over the world. ngo's are there on the ground at great risk to themselves. rapid response is needed now. ngo's cannot always step up to the plate because of the way i operate. after t

the cbo said it only reduced it by a billion dollars. which of these numbers is correct? who cares? the $7 billion that john boehner calls a real and forcible cut for financial year 2012 represents what is the government of the united states current libor row -- borrows every 37 hours. in other words, between now and the time and the end of the week, we will have borrowed back every dime of those painstakingly-negotiated savings. if cbo scoring is correct that et reduces the 2012 deficit by just $1 billion, then the cut represents what the united states borrows every five hours and 20 minutes. in other words, in less time than it takes to drive from my pad upstate to st. anselms and back, in the time it takes to watch "harry potter and the deathly hallows" parts one and two with a bathroom break in between, all the savings of this painstakingly-negotiated plan will be borrowed back. seven billion or one billion, who cares who's right? that's the choice between dead or deader. a month of shuttling back and forth between the capitol and the white house for a, quote, real enforceable c

. >> need more coordination between cbo and other agencies for successful outcomes. >> currently, funding is insufficient of full implementation. >> have a speaking circuit much juvenile advocates to people at every school. >> ask if usd could come to library to speak about resources >> but services in neutral areas so they can be used by a variety of people >> expand collynn programs. >> expand the crn program including into the tenderloin. be able to have data to show success of the program >> need more gun buy back programs >> need to have mentor ships and use those skills like science, technology, media and thearts. and all of these materials as well as these recommendations will be on our website. we want to thank everybody your your attendance. we thank the panelist also for reducing violence. grex good morning, ladies and gentlemen. my name is tom nlan. i am very happy that i am joined by my colleagues here, the vice chair jerry lee. cheryl brinkman and bruce oka. the director would have been year, but he was away on business in oakland. thank you, directors, for being here. we rea

cbo expects a recovery will continue but that output will stay well below potential output.forecast to reflect policy changes, how we did not have time to include other news including the recent slayings in financial markets. on the basis of the data, we project that inflation-adjusted gdp will increase by 2.3% this year and 2.7% next year. incorporating the economic data of the last month and a half would have led us to reduce expected growth. looking beyond next year, federal tax and spending policy will impose a substantial restraint on the economy in 2013. we project economic growth will slow before picking up again in 2014 and beyond. with only modest economic growth anticipated, we expect unemployment to fall slowly. the unemployment rate shot in the picture behind me is projected to fall from 9.1% to 8.9% in the fourth quarter of this year and 8.5% in the fourth quarter of 2012. and then to remain above 8% until 2014. although inflation increased, it was spurred largely by a sharp rise in oil prices. we expect it will diminish the second half of the year. there is emp

they were visited by fannie mae, the head of the cbo.he said they felt like they were being visited by the mafia. she was pressured to try to water it down, not to produce the report that was explicit about how much the government guarantee was worth to the company and how at all costs they had to protect it. we have cbo people who were, you know, standing up against the pressure from fannie mae. there were other people who saw what was coming, people in georgia area who were first to wave the flag and call out the rating agencies for inserting himselfs in a process where georgia had the most most -- tot law. the rating agencies said we will not rate any securities that contain georgia loans, and so all of that predatory lending law had to be gutted. because the ratings agencies said they would not rate those loans. we had people along the way jumping up and down and warning. there some heros in the book i'm glad to say. >> thank you. >> you make a very strong indication for the federal role of housing policy and the behavior in factors

. >> according to cbo, regarded as neutral and authoritative, they are going to privatize medicare tohe point where the out-of-pocket expenses under the paul ryan plan will be $20,000 -- >> and your plan, mark? >> my plan is that we work on medicare. what bothers me most about this debate -- labrador is right, they change the terms. one side says no tax increases, one at side says don't touch medicare. what about people who don't have a lobby in washington, don't have an interest or a pac? >> the tea party? >> their popularity has waned, putting the full faith and credit of the united states on the brink of disaster was not a wise move, even though i agree with evan, we needed to get the spending. >> mark says the plan is to work on medicare. up until now, that is how democrats had to answer. now the tea party has made a change in people actually have to have an answer on that, and that is a great achievement. >> last word. thanks. see you next week. for a transcript of this broadcast, log on to insidewashington.tv. ¡g

the head of the cbo was asked about how it would appear to the budget. he said contemptuously, "we don't estimate speeches," meeting there was nothing he could actually evaluate. are you going to give us a speech or plan? >> listen to this man now. >> you got bills. you know one of the homeless. >> -- you don't want to be homeless. >> this man is an order for the security guard, one of 4000 people who waited in line for hours for a chance at an interview at a job fair sponsored by the congressional black caucus. there are jobs out there, but a lot of people are not qualified to fill them. they needed training and education. how'd you get to there from here? >> there was a similar job fair in washington that eleanor holmes norton had that was -- that had lines that were similarly long. the president has had to show where he wants to take the country and the question of jobs and how he is going to get us there. the last to go around we had with congress before the recession was a disaster for him as a leader of the congress. he came across as impotent. he

jenna: the congressional budget office cbo is out today with fresh projections on our economy. the key word from the director is slumped, prolonged and tough to shake. the unemployment rate isn't expected to drop below 8% for three more years at least. steve morris senior economics writer for the "wall street journal," that caught our eye for sure, steve, why so slow before we're dropping significantly? >> this is the slowest expansion, jenna we've seen since the great depression. a lot of these economic programs to revive the economy and create jobs haven't worked, and the cbo really acknowledged that today saying as you said for three more years we'll be above 8%. that is somewhat polyannish. a economists say we'll stay close to 9% if we don't get out of this recession. there is a lot of talk about a double-dip recession. the other thing in this report is over the last three years the federal government will have borrowed $4 trillion. jenna: wow, $4 trillion. here is the other headline based on that borrowing headline as well. the cbo based on projections that are far from ce

jury is the only entity in the city doing any oversight on your city departments, city agencies, and cbo's. you should read all of your civil grand jury reports and follow their recommendations. these are average citizens, some lawyers, some school teachers. they have no agendas, they have no political constituency, and they're giving you sound advice. thank you. supervisor campos: two minutes that we had given everyone? >> yes, two minutes. >> ok, i am here to speak about this development agreement. it seemed that you are focusing only on the tenant issues. that should not be the only issue discussed here today, since we have a plan department here. the civil grandeur report, we think the members who submitted the documents. my concerns are on the architecture would issues. one is that there was no sound this report. there has not been a carbon footprint analysis on the project after renovations of the garden units. there is no analysis of the direct transit options. they have eliminated any preservation alternative in this project under item four. they said for a variety of policy reason