the cdu party is expected to find the ideas, prompting speculation the governing coalition could be inanger. the spd says that his discussion for the another day. >> the spd in celebratory mode. now it is official. the two will usher in a new era for social democrats. 80% of the delegates voted for eskin. the other got 80% of vovote. >> we should for election so we could help the spd return to the values the social democrats once stood for, recognizability,, credibility, steadfastness. >> one week ago, party members nominated the duo, decision that rocked german media, leading spd politicians expressed concerns that they would try to dissolve the grand coalition with the cdu and csu. but no one will be talking about this on the first day of the party conference. for now, all division and attention are off the agenda. [applause] >> we are in this coalition and we are in a democracy paired we must be prepared to make compromises. they have to be justified. and they must not blur what we stand for. >> the new leadership team is keen to appeal to its left-wing supporters but only to a poin

germany'smerkel, social elect leaders that favor exiting the coalition with the cdu. narrowing the lead, four of the five latest polls show the uk's labour party closing in on boris johnson's tories as president trump visits britain for a nato summit. 7:30 in london and 8:30 in paris or berlin. 29 minutes from the start of the european equity trade for monday morning and things look flat on the european equity markets, but that is not necessarily the global picture overnight. u.s. futures, looking a little more positive. probably, we are reacting on the positive side of things to the data out of china, the manufacturing pmi coming in higher than estimates. that seems to be something that could lift equity markets in the united states later. futures look more positive for the u.s. let's get to the asian session and the gmm shows us where we are on asian equity markets on the far side of the screen. .4%, indonesia doing strongly and the russian market, not bad. a slight cleaning for the on equityrisk on mood markets. investors, buying equities and selling fixed income.

the cdu has said it is open to that.f they cannot come to agreement, that would presumably lead to the spd leaving the government. then, the option would be either early elections or, as you mentioned, possibly a minority government, led by the conservatives. not a very stable option many people in germany what certainly not prefer to see that happen. brent: and it certainly is a dent in the armor of german stability within the european union. the timing is not good, is it? we are preparing for breaks at and a lot of other challenges for europe. melinda: right, one example of that. the other rival candidate for party leadership was the current finance minister the governing coalition, schultz, highly regarded by many people in germany, but not obviously within his own party because he did not win the referendum. that means he now goes into crucially meetings this week, to some degree discredited and with a lot of questions being raised about the stability of this very important economy. the issues of instability are not

that really puts them at us with the cdu.ekend, it is really a question of when or if there is a divorce going on, but it is a question of the track of angela merkel's current time and when she moves off. perhaps that is when the change happens. it is a question of when, not if. tom: thank you so much. it begins two weeks of extensive european coverage in london and with that, the leadership of roslyn manna for an -- rosalind mathieson. --rave new world, 2020 coming up later this money, j.p. morgan chief investment banking officer. that in the 8:00 hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ viviana: you are watching "bloomberg surveillance." , ack friday setting a record record $7.4 billion in online sales on the day after thanksgiving. almost $3 billion of that on smartphones, the only day that has ever been bigger for online shopping's last year, cyber monday. today, by the way, is cyber monday. some surprise company -- comments from iraq. they will consider deeper oil production cuts this week. contrary to the signals the cartel and its a

birgit: i think this is capturing the mood within merkel's cdu.hinks the government has already been told to please the spd, because they were always where the spd is in trouble and they had made a massive concessions on a lot of issues. wage, basic pensions, so a lot of members of the cdu say we have done too much for the spd and this is it. we are not going to go any steps further. the spd has to accept that they are in trouble and we will stay. the wiggle room for compromise is limited at this stage. nejra: thank you to our german government reporter birgit jennen in berlin. ecbcrisis comes as the president christine lagarde faces questions from european lawmakers today. her plans for the biggest reassessment of the institution's mission in 16 years are likely to play a prominent role. do not miss our coverage from 2:00 p.m. london time. christoph rieger from commerzbank is with us. can we come back to the german politics, because our last guest said the political picture makes the prospect of fiscal stimulus from here more complicated rather t

the cdu has already bent over to keep the spd in government. they have introduced a series of left policies, ranging from pension to minimum wage. the party base of the cbu says there is no way we will make these major conceptions. there is only a limited room. david: thank you so much. now let's go to tom orlik in washington. we have numbers out of china that were encouraging on the manufacturing front over the weekend. tom: that is right. over the weekend we had the official manufacturing pmi and we had the shy shin manufacturing pmi. the earliest and most watched pages of how china factory sector is doing. they are both pretty encouraging . the official pmi moved back above the 50 mark that separates improving from deteriorating conditions, and the pmi bank even higher. the important caveat that i would add is that there could be some seasonal effects at work. david: that was going to be my question. is this a one-off or is this in response to stimulus from the chinese government? but there has been stimulus that stimulus has been drip feet

i think that will be kind of breaking the neck of that round of negotiations because the cdu has alreadythat they are not in favor of reopening that coalition contract and especially they are actually not looking at all into abandoning that plan to have a balanced budget so i think they will be at logger heads here and a lot will depend on what the spd working group who is assessing the grand coalition on the social democrats with what kind of result they will come up with and what kind of vote they will have over the week and next weekend when the spd has its general assembly, party convention i should say. most likely next week and we'll actually decide whether the spd will walk away from the grand coalition but that would have devastating affects also on the ministers. so you see the spd itself is still divided between those who want to shift them to the left, say the grand coalition has done us only bad things and the others who have minister jobs and do sit in the bundes and the majority of the lawmakers are not in favor of ending that. the jury is still out whether we see them walk

from the social democrats clearly, if they are insisting on reopening that contract we could see the cdu force them to leave the grand coalition that option is not completely off the table but less likely as i was saying before. now back to you. >> thank you so much >>> stay with us coming up in the show, saudi aramco ipo becomes the world's largest listing but falls short of the kingdom target. we'll explain why in just a few minutes. memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. (danny) 12 hours? 20 dogs?asy. where's your belly rubs? after a day of chasing dogs you shouldn't have to chase down payments. (vo) send invoices and accept payments to get paid twice as fast. (danny) it's time to get yours! (vo) quickbooks. backing you. >>> welcome back to "street signs. i'm willem marx. >> and i'm joumanna bercetche. these are your headlines >> bearing the burden. opec gears up for a 500,000 barrel a day cut >> saudi aramco shares at the top of the range as they prepare for $25.6 billion in the world's largest ever ipo

but the cdu party conference already rejected a motion on this.ds are you end up with a compromise in the government. this is a credible threat from the chinese to hurt german autos, so we expect that it means more regulation, but it does not mean complete decoupling. how difficult is it to model th these? how difficult is it to understand the medications of something coming from huawei technology? gene: we are in the fortunate position not to necessarily have to understand that. it is about constructing a portfolio that is robust against those kinds of shocks. when you do the researcher get -- about what kind of providers can rollout 5g, it is almost impossible if you want to do it without -- with a realistic timeframe without huawei. the manufacturing sector is effectively in contraction. you have unemployment going up about 36% of all unappointed districts. halfway i think to national unemployment going up in germany. we are seeing manufacturing weakness spreading to services and other parts of the economy, but we are not there yet. one of the

i think it will be convenient for the cdu to have that excuse.nk an element of reflation theermany, re-fleeting by government in terms of fiscal reflation to be good for germany and good for europe. i can see that happening and i think it is an interesting prospect. francine: is this what your needs, and will germany spend to make a big difference? howard: i doubt they will spend enough to make a big difference, but the fact that they changed policy will encourage people to be more optimistic about the european economy. francine: if you look at the to0 pound out, europe seems have taken a lot of the. would you be more attracted to the u.s. because the economy is something that has been unloved like european stocks? values i think capital are vulnerable because we have market, andr bull it needs to grow to sustain value. i think there is value elsewhere, and i do think it could be value in the u.k. for reasons we will not talk about. francine: we will not talk about it, howard. not until after the election. after there joins us break. kicking off

. >> back here in europe, the head of germany's cdu party has criticized the new leaders of the ceu coalitionnew leaders publicly refused to commit to the coalition government kans la angle merkel's potential successor said the government should serve germany and not be a, quote, trauma therapy for ruling parties her remarks come as the sbd completes its three-day party congress the party's leftist leaders agree to stay on as coalition partners for the time being but they are demanding new policies on climate, investment and minimum wage we'll talk about german politics on a scale of 1 to 10, if 1 is not even slightly bothered and 10 is terrified, how concerned should investors be about the collapse of this coalition, this grand coalition in germany >> three maximum, absolute maximum. i mean, the reality is if you look at both parties, effectively three, if you look at where they are in the polls, none of these two parties can really have an interest of going back to the polls right now. none of these parties have sorted out, by the way, who is going to run you made that very clear just now,

that is the important redline for the cdu csu he or.ortant is the infamous black zero that the government wants to hold? chad: the interesting thing about the spd demands, they dial them back a little bit from some of the draft proposals we saw earlier in the week. they did not mention the black zero. they seem to be getting -- that would be very hard to dialback from that promised that they have been making to voters for many years. that will be the area where you see the most contention between the two parties. merkel's christian democrats, they had a funny post on twitter where they said that black zero is a fetish. it shows the degree to which they really are committed to doing that. matt: it wouldn't be the only fetish here in berlin. it is the twilight of miracles time and -- merkel's time in power. ak ise get there, supposed -- akk is supposed to take over. do they have a better chance of taking over? an interesting question. these two are not known internationally. they are not that well known in germany. there is some discussio

cdu bpeter buyer is a undestag member, and he is responsible for the washington-berlin relationship. to get some morning calls. ti are at and ci loggerhead. we will take a look at em stocks. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back. six and a half minutes until the start of equity trade, a little downside at the start. u.s. futures almost entirely flat this hour. time for morning call. today's strategists take on the rallying emerging-market assets. dani burger is here with details. the battle of emerging-market calls. theirays they have cut outlook on em in favor of u.s. stocks. they say valuations at this level are not attractive after all. we did cem rally to an 18 month high. to the fact that despite there has been movement in trade tensions, we see global volume slowing. finally, they say china monetary policy is actually tightening, not loosening. taking the other side of this bet is jp morgan. they say they like em, specifically bonds and affects in the emirate -- and fx in the emerging nations. but they say recession odds are at 25% versus 40%, what they saw prior. the reason

, so they are a much more prone to a sickly push very hard in possible future negotiations with the cdu and push it as far as maybe even leaving the coalition. but in the end, it will be down to negotiation. alix: thank you so much. staying in europe, oil rebounding from its biggest weekly loss since october is a rock signaled -- as a rock -- as wouldignaled opec+ consider more cuts. with more is annmarie hordern. annmarie: we have to take this with a grain of salt. first we were talking about the compliance issue. iraq has not complied. they are pumping well above their target. now they are talking about deeper cuts. likely we will hear a harder tone from the ones that have been complying, like saudi arabia, to get cheaters in line. secondly, when i say they are breaking ranks, it's because we've heard from opec delegates, and heard signals from saudi arabia and russia signaling they want to maintain the status quo and not cut her. when you are going into the meeting and seeing a headline that this from the oil minister in iraq, many are taking this with a lot of skepticism. alix: than

that is something the cdu has to have a heart on given that it could be in coalition with the greensnthe 2020 germany. matt: thanks very much, mike gallagher of continuum economics will stay with us. paul dobson will stay with us. we will continue these conversations. take a quick look at what is going on in terms of the equity indexes on a day when we do see very light trading. of course a lot of market participants will be at home watching the program from there. futures rising as we see european stocks fall. this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: let's get the bloomberg business flash. we work will have to repay for ceos ifillion they are fired or leave for other reasons. exit package terms were sent to shareholders ahead of a 3 billion-dollar offer by softbank . gold is on the end of year rally. spot gold prices up 18% this year. some analysts say it is do we can -- due to the weakness of the u.s. dollar. at the dollar is set for its biggest quarterly loss since the start of 2018. of -- ate gallagher continuum economics and paul dobson of bloomberg news still with us. talking about the wea