then, the second challenge will be the central bank normalization of the main central banks.han: it was just treasury yields staying stubbornly low and the dollar was weakened and everyone ended up disappointed. that helped drive em returns. it wasn't about em. it was about elsewhere. bob: there was some of each and those statements. emerging-market debt pieces all -- emerging-market teased us all year long. it had the high real yield when he had zero real yields in the developed market. coming out of the trump victory, the emerging-market currencies were a bit undervalued. you can pick up high real yielding a tailwind. i think actually he did not get the trump stimulus. that was clear by the end of the first quarter. the dollar came off and emerging-market debt looks pretty attractive. jonathan: i want to tease out your review on treasuries. the 10-year will not come through. are you still looking for that next year? bob: we go back and forth on this, don't we? you point to the 30-year as rallying over 35 basis points this year. i can point to the entirety -- that is the fun

i loved being a central banker.tral bank, my country, is certainly the greatest privilege i've ever had professionally. but ultimately, public service is not about yourself. it is about the institution you serve, the people you serve, or the country you serve. and in that context, it was the right decision because it needed, the circumstances were such that credibility was of the utmost importance, and the best way to preserve the full range of action for the central bank, remember in a difficult environment, this was more or less the tail end of the crisis, things were uncertain. the euro crisis was still in full bloom. it was very, very important that there were no questions around the leadership, so it was the right thing to do for the institution. it was the right thing to do for the country. it was a painful thing to do for me. francine: talk to me in real terms, what is a robot advisor? am i going to have a robot as a boss at any point if i work for blackrock? ♪ ♪ francine: after leaving the swiss national ban

much central bank news, volatility at a low level.e do not see much direction, direction but not much size as far as futures are concerned. down across the board but only fairly small moves with the exception of when you get into the dax. enter frankford a drop of one third of 1%. take a look at oil. interesting today, everyone is focused on rates, people will be focused on currency and stocks. do not take your eye off oil. this is a three-day trade of nymex crude here -- crude. we are down 2.5% as u.s. output has risen to a 30 year high. eight weeks in a row of gains for oil. watch this space. i am behind you. let's talk about the gmm and figure out what is happening. and what has been happening in some of the equity markets. switzerland more positive but germany trading lower. the csi trading down. the aussie dollar bit this morning, japanese yen on offer and the vrable down. keep an eye on turkey. we have a central bank rate decision coming. we continue to digest what happened. let's get a bloomberg first word news update. here's j

i loved being a central banker.the central bank, my country, is certainly the greatest privilege i've ever had professionally. but ultimately, public service is not about yourself. it is about the institution you serve, the people you serve, or the country you serve. and in that context, it was the right decision. because it needed, the circumstances were such where credibility was of the utmost importance, and the best way to preserve the full range of actions for the central bank in a difficult environment, remember, this was still more or less the tail end of the crisis, things were uncertain. the euro crisis was still in full bloom. it was very, very important that there were no questions around the leadership, so it was the right thing to do for the institution. it was the right thing to do for the country. it was a painful thing to do for , for me. francine: talk to me in real terms. what is a robot advisor? you know, am i going to have a robot as a boss at any point if i work for blackrock? ♪ ♪ francine: afte

i represent the central soma neighbors. i'm here to talk about concerns in the zoning between folsom and harrison. i want to remind you that this is a residential neighborhood. there are five condo buildings totalling 600 residences within a block of these high-rises. the neighbors here agree that the planning department's 2013 central soma draft was right when it said that the predominant character of soma should be retained and the presence of high-rises reduced by limiting their distribution in bulk. supervisors, it achieves under all the housing and job growth as the proposed high-rise plan, but a walkable, livable neighborhood. as you weigh community benefits against the new high-rise proposals, factor in the community benefits that our community enjoys, access to light, sky and air. minutes wind tunnels and family of friendly environment. as a property owner, as a giants' fan that walks with other giants' fans, as a tech worker that soaks up the sun while eating my lunch in the public open space, i urge you, don't tra

that kind of innovation around central banking is important.econdly, globalization has dampened kind of wage pressure. there's no question about that, that you constantly have new pools of labor that are entering the global labor market, the global supply chains. and so that have certainly made it difficult certainly to have a wage spiral going on. and then technology certainly is another piece where the combination of technology, competition, and integration of new economies, new spaces, new pools of labor, has made it difficult indeed for inflation to behave the way it would have behaved in the 1960's or 1970's. francine: so should we still look at the phillips curve? is it broken or is it dead? philipp: i think maybe that's the wrong question to ask when you ask it bluntly like that. it is more about, how do we think these forces will evolve over time? i think it's true that prices behave differently today than they did some decades ago. and probably that will not change, so i think we do have --the good news here is we have an environment w

centralization, they just bought a monarchy freight and half years and they knew about central government. they were well read, aristotle and cicero the saw what happened. they're very concerned about centralized government. look at this electoral college in the courts are distinct and that you have lifetime appointment. they were dividing this remember, the declaration talks about unalienable rights. they're not up for a vote. doesn't matter what and neighbor thinks her these are god-given, eternal truths are as aristotle called them it universal law. they were concerned about that john adams talk about private property rights and he said the country of 10 million people if it subject to a vote those 2 million will lose their property and you have nothing but the law of the jungle. he rejected it. didn't reject the consent of the governed. they also rejected nationalism what i explained in the book is some people complain confuse nationalism as americanism. it's americanism were trying to defend. that's a very good point. >> we talked about this little bit before the show, the concern th

i was a -- you know i loved , being a central banker.ng the central bank, my country, is certainly the greatest privilege i've ever had professionally. but ultimately, public service is not about yourself. it is about the institution you serve, the people you serve, or the country you serve. and in that context, it was the right decision because it needed -- the circumstances were such that credibility was of the utmost important -- importance, and the best way to preserve the full range of action for the central bank in a difficult environment -- remember this was not -- this was more or less the tail end of the crisis, things were still very uncertain. the euro crisis was still in full bloom. it was very, very important that there were no questions around the leadership, so it was the right thing to do for the institution. it was the right thing to do for the country. it was a painful thing to do for -- for me. francine: talk to me in real terms, what is a robot advisor? you know am i going to have a , robot as a boss at any point if i

oh yes this is i would say in the everyday lives of children in the central african republic of many children. eventually you know that the situation in the central african republic has been that there's been a really bad increase in violence in the past six months especially we now have one in two children in the country with running remark and probably one in four or five now is illiterate displaced internally displaced or. outside of the country so we usually say the center not the public is one of the worst countries and that is one inch or that is a very very stark number there this summer in the simmering conflict is taking such a massive toll on the children of the central african republic how worried are you that things could even deteriorate further if the main warring parties don't cease hostilities. well you see we have very aware about the situation in the central african republic where there's currently fifteen to twenty are upside to each other actually so it's not really want against the other and the very specific details of this conflict is that those armed groups do

in central soma. we have the old mint, which is one of the most important, endangered buildings in the united states. there is also many important cultural -- sorry, important people in filipino and lgbtq and organizations that work on their behalf. we identified two funding sources, extension of transferrable developments rights program. the result is that we'd have $20 million to funding rehabilitation of the old mint. it's one aspect, but can help to leverage more funds. we also see that there would be $20 million to the transferrable rights and rehabilitate and maintain them. as far as funding and outcome for fiphilippinfilipino and lgb communities, we'll discuss that in a minute. and also the final bucket, job training. we have identified $20 million in a new impact fee set to the maximum amount possible and the result will be funding for facilities that serve the growing population in the neighborhood. so lets talk about emerging issues. the $70 million identified and have some up. the first, so

you have a rebellion in central asia, this region here. seeks to recruit muslim soldiers, you have a major rebellion against this recruitment effort. this chaos, upheaval, further radicalize his the population. socialists denounce what they war.the imperialist's although one is done as the imperialist war. it is known -- world war i is known as the imperialist war. languages now pursue o outright independence. breaks the czar's state. the czar who bdicates in february of 1917, when he goes, you have the end anarchy uries old mow that -- monarchy that managed to together this diverse population. you have a provisional as the name ich suggests is seen as temporary nd a government that doesn't have the monopoly on the use of force. ince many soldiers returning from the front, fed up with the war, side with the bolsheviks. social activists operating un r czaristund fleeing from police, can now come into the open. they pour into the russian center of into the russia from exile, from prison, from immigration. the georgian radicals join provision

they must be in the central soma plan. the design review, should be a standard for all in soma where they function as true, public open spaces, rather than being a new design process, there should be a design in place. and one example of a good plan that exists is in bridge housing and put together in conjunction with community members. >> madam clerk, if we could allow the mike to keep going so folks can finish their sentences, that would be great. >> i'm from the veterans equity center and filipino mental health initiative as well as we're here with soma coalition. soma is home to a lot of people with thattor are seniors and disabilities. we serve the community and cultural assets such as services for immigrants and people with adult disabilities. it should be considered historical resources and we seek to recognize places like filipino education center and i fell like it could prevent at-risk change and knowing that places are frequented by filipino members and in the larger bay area. some of the fees should support and

the central bank has achieved that but the debate still rages on some economists say that what is good for the average consumer like low inflation. might mean if not death hurts and not a very healthy situation for producers for the calm in general do you feel that the this policy of inflation targeting has been successful how fair is the the criticism coming from the production sector that they don't have free money enough. targeting inflation is the right thing to do if you want our economy to be healthy if we want investors to trust us we definitely have to do this because this is a and we need to have a balanced budget in we need it smart morning tory policy in this is what central bank does. i can understand the criticism coming from businesses yes of course. they would like to get. cheaper loans but the thing is we need to. balance everything in a smart way we need to avoid having bubbles in our economy when there is a lot of cheap money available you invest it in something deserving. and you deserve this money into companies that don't have. guaranteed demand. look at what has b

central soma should not be like downtown. go 5 states offer an abundance of park and rec spaces from an area that suffers from a shortage of parks relative to the number of residents. $170 million generated is designated for park and rec space. the tenderloin and 6th street is the densest part with low income families and seniors with practically no open space. we've been begging for something small like a 1/2-acre park and we're always told there is no money. i support the $30 million to improve what we do have but wasn't to see something allocated to something in the central because we keep circling this area. the parks proposed at 5th and bryant and 11th are way too far from the people that live there now and need it. we don't want to see $80 going to pope st. that's the responsibility of the developers. the developers need to carry their part. >> thank you, ms. wile. next speaker, please. mr. lance berg. >> councillor tang: and if we can allow people to finish their sentences. >> sure. thank you. >> supervisors, i'm lance

francine: so who knew about this, the 10 central bankers?ord king: yes, and among other people inside the central banking world. we did not brief the political world because that, i'm afraid in modern circumstance, means inevitably a leak. and that was the one thing that would have undermined the operation. francine: is that what makes the big difference between the central banks and the politicians? lord king: yes. i will not go into detail, but if i had to say the big difference between the central banks and politicians in the crisis, i could talk to another central banker confident that it would be a conversation in confidence, and it would be treated with discretion. i think that whatever discussions took place with politicians, they seemed to end up in the, in the media. francine: how did you cope with the financial crisis? what are the attributes that a central banker needs for working under pressure, extreme pressure? ♪ ♪ francine: long before mervyn king set foot on threadneedle street, he was an academic teaching in prestigious inst

we feel that as we get into next year we will see more central banks hiking.nk to hike will be malaysia's central bank, hiking injanuary. much more important than this fed rate hike will be the fomc dots. at the moment they are forecasting three hikes. if they provides update dots, it might mean that fomc will forecast four rate hikes. the market expects only two. if they are looking at three or four rate hikes in 2018, what impact could it have on the us economy and on asia? the us economy is very strong. now we get the fiscal expansion. this is really needed to stop the us economy overheating. it is good for the us economy to avoid too much froth and access. for asia, i economy to avoid too much froth and access. forasia, ithink economy to avoid too much froth and access. for asia, i think this tightening of us monetary policy could put some pressure on asian chorus —— currencies to weaken over time. over the course of next you, it will put pressure on asian central banks to start following the fed. this year has seen many prominent cyber—attacks, everything

the keyboard you know that creates the money in the first place does the obviate the need for the central bank well it is. because i think your bank loans the money to the treasury effectively right wrist and that's where you end up with a problem because you've got to print money to pay the interest and we end up with a kind of explosion and well but it's like saying you know you have your mother and your father you know they both take on the parenting function they just take on different roles so that the central bank is privately owned and the federal well i've heard that argument before but it is a creature of congress it was created by congress could be revoked was not a wholesome be. east doesn't like that operate that is a different interest of all. privately held bank that is lending money at interest that is not. i well i wouldn't disagree with you and frankly one of the reasons america staged the revolution was to get rid of the i way from the bank of england the bag of england and the course the limited the bank the united states at one point as well but but look even if you go

banking sector in central. looking very hard at private and state run banks but what about inspections. the law enforcement agencies. in relation to the central bank the central bank has an exclusive exceptional mandates maybe they have been so corruption cases or abuse on the part of the regulator. that. according to law and international practice central bank is in independent organization. and. the government has no control over it so the central bank operates autonomy and this makes sense you can call it. this enables them to regulate the financial fear in the banking sector but we can talk about this in more detail a little later i can tell you what i think about this situation but there's a regards oversight. something with respect to the central bank if there is such oversight the prosecution service and other law enforcement agencies keep an eye on them and from time to time i get reports. about this but so for there has been no confirmation no evidence so i would like to assure first that there is over

digital money which could be there and given to everybody in the country so whereas at the moment central banks only interact react with banks the banking system us on all banks financial institutions suddenly central actually interact with us regularly and that some may well be amazed by what you get used to it you will currencies to cancel excess of the level of credit created money which is being almost in the last bit of profit it alls so that's to me the probably the major innovation central banks taking all watch and technology producing digital currency and then giving us all a bank account at the central bank which could be used as a way of bringing about illegals on television and. we'll be back with more news after the show breaks serious and. hey everybody i'm stephen bob shiller task hollywood guy the suspect every proud american first of all i'm just george bush and r.v. and to suggest this is my buddy max famous financial guru is well just a little bit different on the abraham lincoln one of the oh no one knows up with all the drama happening in our country i'm shooting the

does yesterday or the fact that there's a change of hands in the central bank change your outlook? >> no, we're sticking to that stronger dollar view, as it plays out against the yen. we still like other emerging currencies relative to the dollar but i think the dollar versus the yen looks like a reasonable view again, predicated on this really solid underlying growth in the u.s. i think that's what the fed is outlining when they put their growth forecast there. in terms of those three hikes next year, three hikes in 2019, again, that underlines the support for the economy. i want to pick out a point from your report for 20 1 it's the year that central bank policy tightening starts to matter i want to challenge that a bit if you consider where we are historically low rates on interest rates most of us looking at three rate hikes. i fail to see how that moves the needle for i investors in 2018 >> you have to look at it in terms of what is priced in even after the fed announcement yesterday evening our time the markets barely got three hikes priced by the end of 2019, bearing in mind

because the central bank decides on the monetary policy and interest rates.performance for the central bank, we see a tightening in the amount of four hundred basis points. it shows there is an independence of the central bank in turkey. is concerned about investors. they complain about high interest rates in turkey. as a politician, a leader that supports growth in the country, he and most politicians want reduced inflation rates. inflationis an problem. the president does not like the problem either. we should focus on the independence of the central bank and its main goal is to provide and maintain price volatility in turkey. guy: what you're saying is that the central bank could -- should keep hiking interest rates until inflation is under control. ms. karahan: the central bank should watch the developments -- as i said, there are many factors behind it. is a problem in turkey and it should be solved in a structural way. there is the foreign exchange rate problem also. and there is volatility. a fluctuation. that is why the fluctuation should keep an i on

a lot of central banks in this region tend to watch what is going on in the us.hem as well as the philippines. for indonesia, they have cut rates twice this year in the third quarter so the best thing they can do is to hold steady. it would be too soon to suddenly shift gears. they are sitting on a very confused central banks but i expect to shift to slightly more neutral and next year perhaps one rate hike. with the philippines as well, we can see currencies fairly volatile in the regions. what are we expecting from there? in the philippines, we are expecting a higher shift towards rate hikes next year but now the central bank governor is signalling there are a lot of domestic issues and they will not follow effect just yet. china did not do this last year, yet. china did not do this last yea r, every yet. china did not do this last year, every body expecting a weak trade data but they came out with hugely strong data and we are expecting more industrial reduction in data stop what are you anticipating? a little bit of stabilisation. the national party congress

risk so they're playing games with through the primary dealers with a central bank. exposure to these loans to zero they don't take any fricken risks so they have a celestion sure but the what the central bank they're they're not directly loaning out reserves but they have a direct action to the banks and that's a dead system they're keeping the zombie banks alive and tears have. things to say about that as well generally speaking if you read the works of people like bill mitchell for example he he argues that the best thing would be to have a. narrow banking model where you fixedly preserve the usual. yeah it's not it's not out there making bets like that reserve is leverage sixty to one yes that's going to zero percent interest rates for an m.m.j. treasury function is just trading getting back to this idea of money as utility they're just what they're going to get out there is zero percent because they're not trying to scam on the rate spread they're just making it either available or not available right and the way they also would argue that the optimal way to con

perhaps for a bit ofa time the central belt. perhaps for a bit of a time in the central.rain not farfrom southern england, 13 of a time in the central. rain not far from southern england, 13 to 1a celsius and as we go through saturday evening into new year's eve we will see some potentially quite stormy weather affecting the north of the country. potentially sophia gales from a storm called dylan, working to the north sea through the afternoon. that still some showers as we run towards the midnight hour and those media celebrations. there's your weather. this is bbc news. i'm ben bland. our top stories: anti—government protests spread to several cities in iran, with thousands chanting slogans against the country's supreme leader. new york's fire chief says a toddler playing with a stove started a fire in the bronx which killed 12 people including five children. funerals in egypt for nine people killed in attacks on coptic christians. and it's knight fever — bee gees singer barry gibb is given a knighthood in queen elizabeth's new year honours, as is the beatles drummer ri

those central banks all meeting.n energy, about three quarters of 1%, financials and tech seeing a different -- a decent bid and real estate is the clear laggard. we have been asking are we going to continue to see some sort of set up to wrap up the year with a rally? jpmorgan is saying if you're looking for an indication of some kind of correction or anything sinister in the economy, stop looking at the yield curve, which there has been a lot of buzz recently as it continues to flatten, look more when it comes to real rates. this is 3616. they are saying the measures that fed funds rate minus the court cpi, that is actually holding, not just below zero, but -0.5% right now. there is some room, as jpmorgan says in the purple line, when we start to see volatility and stocks selling off, it will be at about 1%. still seeing a bit of room for equities to outperform. it is not too late to get in. take a look at the movers this morning. we have been talking about the operateany, they convenience stores in south korea. bus

it, the central bank think about it, the central bank think about it, what we used to do in the oldere they thinking and what they were thinking, what they might do that now they just tell us. so life thinking, what they might do that now theyjust tell us. so life is a lot easier than it was before and we have to price it. maybe that is why volatility, market going up and down is practically an adult i'm low at the moment is the central bank, the most important central bank in the world, the fed, 97% priced in. but they have to deliver! we get the latest inflation figures injust underan hourorso we get the latest inflation figures injust under an hour or so and it will give us an hint as to whether the bank of england have made the right move when the increased interest rates at the beginning of november. yes the markets are always looking for justification november. yes the markets are always looking forjustification and verification but always looking for the next meeting as well. there was an interesting story on the oil pipeline which shows how involved everything is in financia

tracy: central banks will be central banks.nts to is bis the loosening financial conditions compared to the rates rising in the u.s. clearly, thews it green bars are loosening financial conditions, again coming despite the benchmark rate going up. what do you make of that. fed effectively tightened monetary conditions at this point in the cycle? >> i think the flattening that is taking place in the bond market, no matter what we see at the narrow end about pushing up rates, the dollar doesn't rally and the 10 year does not selloff is a sharp, so this flattening of the yield curve, and this is becoming a global phenomenon. the central bank cap hike in a sustained manner, and even the term premiums with the long end of the curve should be pushed up. the fixed income market is saying i don't buy this here it expand and has been going on for a long time. you can hike once or twice, but you will stop there and maybe have to think about cutting rates, so that is the big tension between what the bond market is saying and what the fed