we'll ask former cftc chair tim mosset. with higher rates hitting spending from every angle we'll kick things off with credit cards and will consumers keep footing the bill and if not, what are the market's most exposed areas. as we head to break, we are near session highs and the dow is up 349 and the 10-year note a little bit off session highs around 4716. we are back after this. ♪ ♪ >>> this is "the exchange" on cnbc. this is spring semester at fairfield-suisun unified. they switched to google tools for education because there's never been a reported ransomware attack on a chromebook. now they're focused on learning knowing that their data is secure. ( ♪♪ ) nice footwork. knoman, you're lucky,ta watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. >>> welcome back. bitcoin jumping as much as 8% earlier today, c

for example, the cftc's weekly commitment of the report which shows you what small speculators and others. large speculators are money managers. and commercial hedgers are business, people in business with a much more direction to the futures. they're executing a business strategy. and that's what williams likes to watch what the commercial hedgers are doing. his view, they alone are the smart money. they must be followed. take a look at this chart of the long or short position of the commercial. look at this. and then right here. notice williams, okay. in the commercial hedgers down at the bottom in red. this is what we will be focused on for second. even though you are constantly hearing bearish comments about this market, the commercial hedgers have been loading up on stocks of late. that's not an opinion. it is fact. look at this. this is a genuine huge buy by the people who are in the know. right now the commercial hedgers are net by 29,549 commercials. that's real money. look at the last three times their net long position was at these levels. okay? look at this. one, two, three. we

if we look at cftc short positioning, this is back in the global financial crisis, way long as folks. this is in that 2018 selloff. a lot of this has to do with when jay powell made his first pivot from hiking, and then this bond short came off. right now we are at a record short. i would make the case it is going to take a while for it to come off. but this is a great chart, a way to figure out when we may see yields back off. i think right now it is not saying anytime that soon. guy: absolutely. we are all now anticipating what is going to happen next week with the cpi number. how could that change things? abigail, thank you very much, indeed. what a week we have seen. what else are we watching? amazon is apparently going to launch prototype satellites today on a very big rocket for two relatively small satellites. they are keen to make sure these things go into space. president biden -- what i say? space, sorry. space is important. alix: keep going. guy: she did a whole special on space. i assume you have a ticket? how big is the powerball now? i am fascinated by this. alix: what

the cftc is led by ranking member boseman, who has spent a lot of time working with firms to figure out the rules of the road. one of the challenges that we have, i assume you know this, is that much of the consternation about regulation in america is pushing the crypto technology abroad and into foreign territory, which i think is long-term and could be problematic, particularly with blockchain technology. it's very easy to be opposed to the crypto conversation. i have taken the approach that since the alumnus on my committee has legislation that works in that direction, i would rather see her approach coupled with boseman's approach to provide the regulatory framework that what's -- would provide stability incredible take to what is likely, in some form or fashion, a serious part of our financial future. >> thank you senator. >> yes sir. >> can you guess what we have next? >> a new hampshire student. >> one and from georgetown. >> i love that, though he is. >> thank you for being here with us senator, i am at the financial services program here in georgetown. given your support for fr

cftc data, futures, the chicago board of trade obviously they got squeezed out when bill gross and eckmaneaded for the exits that trade became a stampede to get out the exit so you had a big move. that is positioning. fundamentally the situation has not changed. you've got a resilient economy, inflation, a federal reserve that likes the high interest rates one more time in holding those up longer than investors expect read none of that is the all clear signal. shery: if we continue to go higher in treasury yields what is the tipping point when it comes to risk for stocks? >> the tipping point would probably be once the 10 year yield gets into the same sort of space as the feds cash rate which is 5.33%. you're looking at the effective cash rate, 5.5% of the fed raises again and if you did get a sustained move to those levels that would hurt stocks. any other angle you have to take into account is can the economy support this yield? if it can you should buy stocks because there have been times in the past where bond yields were at this level in the economy did just fine and in that situatio

the world over even executives to finance the largest crypto exchange in the world are accused of cftcof being seemingly dismissive of the rest that hamas are utilizing their platform. and 100 accounts linked to hamas on finance since hamas' attack on israel. dr. levitt what consideration to make when examining these are crypto and financing terror groups? >> unconcerned about the ability not only to raise funds but to move funds as a means of transfer because of the nature that there are no borders. as we crackdown on other means of hamas financing they will squeeze that the land until it expands elsewhere. so i don't think hamas has made tremendous amounts of money by crypto i am concerned is a growing industry and its something they will try to expand their opportunities. it's something we have an opportunity now and i don't know if i want to say get ahead but very up in ketchup and prevented from becoming something big before it is. >> i work forward to working with my colleagues including down on this issue and making sure we are not making it easy for hamas to finance her crimes

world over, even executives at binance, the largest crypto exchange in the world are accused by the cftc of being seemingly dismissive of the risk that hamas is utilizing their platform to fund terrorism. authorities have closed over 100 accounts linked to hamas on binance since the attack on israel. dr. wagman, what considerations do you make when examining the use of crypto in financing these terror groups? dr. levitt: i'm concerned about the ability, not only to raise funds, but to move funds as a means of transfer because there are no borders. and so, as we crackdown on other means of hamas financing, they will it squeeze that balloon. it will expand elsewhere. while i don't think hamas has made a tremendous amounts of money by crypto, i am concerned it is a growing industry. it is a place they will try to expand their opportunities. it is something we have an opportunity now, to hurry up and catch up, and prevent them from becoming something big before it does. >> i look forward to working with my colleagues to find ways of clamping down on this issue. and making sure we are not mak

that the cftc had regulated it at a commodity. globe had a large amount of fraud going on. and i was not comfortable -- >> by the way, you were proven right. so what's changed since then? >> there are al of people who do surveillance and the like who are confident that the bitcoin spot market is what i would say is -- has much greater efficacy than it did three or four years ago. >> because you've cleaned out the sam bankman-frieds of the world. >> it's a number of thing. but in the applications -- what i would say is, well-respected financial institutions, new financial institutions, or new financial providers have submitted to the s.e.c., they lay out the case for why trading and spot bitcoin is more efficacious than it was -- >> the washington insider, what's going to happen with mccarthy. you are a washington insider. you know the players, you know everything. >> you know kevin. >> yeah, i like kevin. >> you know gaetz. >> i do not know gaetz. >> you know any of the freedom caucus guys? >> can i tell you how i look at this? >>