chair powell: sure.seems that rates have responded to news about vaccination and ultimately about growth, so higher growth, higher inflation, lower cases of covid. so in effect, there has been an underlying sense of an improved economic outlook, and that has to be part of why rates would move back up from the extraordinarily low levels they were at back up to levels we are more likely to see. that has been an orderly process. i would be concerned if it were not an orderly process, or if conditions were to tighten to the point where they might threaten our recovery. sen. shelby: mr. chairman, we are all concerned about inflation price stability. that is one of your mandates at the federal reserve. in the event that inflation does rise precipitously and becomes an issue, what tools would the federal reserve utilize or have left to maintain and works towards's price stability -- and work towards price to the lizzie? -- price stability? chair powell: that is really our tools that create accommodative or less

chair powell: sure. it has been a long-held policy of the fed that we do not tell banks what legal businesses they can learn to or order them to lend to. that is not what we do. with the climate change, you are getting at the climate change work, we are at a very early stage of understanding the risk to regulating financial institutions from climate change. it is a risk that we think the public has every right to expect that we will assure that the banks manage over time. in early stages of that, i would be happy to talk to you off-line about that. >> absolutely. secretary yellen, could you provide your thoughts on that concern? punch that button, secretary. sec. yellen: you want me to weigh in on the issue with climate change? >> yes, that there will potentially be efforts by the financial regulators to move toward regulation supervision of environmental policies. i folks are concerned that that will lead to discouraging banks from doing business is in certain areas of certain sectors and have a dramati

chair powell, ms. yellen, welcome. chair powell, this is to you. the rescue plan, do we now have an opportunity to expand the child tax credit. the irs has put forward a get my payment website, and i believe it can be used in conjunction with the fdic and the private sector to bring more americans into our banking system using what is known as bank owned, certified safe accounts. but only if it is able to be moved at this moment, when we capture it. currently, the irs get my payment tool is only open for the status checks. but so many are unable to add or change delivery information as they were able to do so with the delivery of the first stimulus check. chairman powell, explain that. don't you agree that this is an opportunity to increase financial inclusion through the use of certified bank owned safe accounts, get my payment? mr. powell: sir, i would agree with you that greater inclusiveness in the financial system is a goal of the highest priority for us and really for all financial regulators. i am not familiar with the particular practice yo

chair powell: chairman powell, ranking member toomey, thank you for the opportunity to discuss the measures we have taken to address the pandemic. i would like to start by noting the one-year anniversary of the cares act. with unanimous approval congress provided the fastest and largest response to any postwar economic downturn, offering support for households, businesses, health care providers and state and local governments. this legislation provided critical support in our nation's hour of need. as a virus arrived in force, our immediate challenge was to limit the severity and duration of the fallout to avoid longer run damage. we also acted with unprecedented speed and force using the full range of the policy tools at our disposal. today the situation is much improved. while the economic fallout has been real and widespread the worst was avoided by swift and vigorous action from congress and the federal reserve from across governments and cities and towns and from individuals, communities in the private sector. more people held onto their jobs and more businesses kept their jobs open an

i look forward to your questions. >> from reuters. >> hi, chair powell. thanks for that. could you talk us through how the forecast for 2021 maps into the progress definition? 2.4% inflation, considered transitory that's still seems like some progress there 4.5% unemployment. is it time to start talking about talking about tapering yet? >> not yet so as you pointed out, we've said that we would continue asset purchases at this pace until we see substantial further progress and that's actual progress not forecast progress. so that's a difference from our past approach. so what we mean by that is pretty straightforward we want to see that the labor market conditions have moved -- have made substantial progress toward maximum employment and inflation made progress toward the 2% goal. that's what we want to see that obviously includes an element of judgment and we'll want to provide as much advance notice of any potential taper as possible so when we see that we are on track, data suggesting that we are on track to perhaps achieve substantial further progress we eelt say so a

and thank you to chair powell and secretary yellen for appearing today. a year ago, our economy and markets were roiled by the covid-19 pandemic and government ordered business shutdowns. we saw extraordinary turmoil in credit markets that threatened the ability of households, businesses, states, and municipalities to obtain credit. this turmoil presented the very real threat of a full-blown depression that could have taken years to recover from. in response, congress passed the cares act to provide temporary relief to help the country weather a temporary storm. it was an extraordinary response to an extraordinary situation. thankfully, it proved effective and we are now well on the way to a complete recovery. the vaccine is being administered at a rate of over 2 million doses a day, states are reopening, and gdp is set to reach pre-pandemic levels as soon as this month, far earlier than cbo or the fed originally projected. the economy has been in full recovery mode since last summer when we saw 38% gdp growth in the third quarter, well before democrats e

the fact that we have both chair powell and treasury secretary yellen, i am getting them confused.t is really hard. but this idea that janet yellen will have to be asked what is the appropriate rate of 10 year treasuries to make this borrowing spree worthwhile, and to chair powell, what are you going to do to suppress borrowing costs enough to make this worthwhile? these are very important questions. i don't think we are going to get responses. jonathan: the chairman powell of 2021 is very different from what we saw in 20 18. this tuesday morning, here's the set up. a little bit of risk aversion. equities are down 15 on the s&p. the nasdaq is softer, even with this massive bid into the bond market. we have been so used two seeing yields go the other way. 1.63 percent on tens. in the fx market, euro weaker. euro-dollar down 0.4% to $1.1883. if we stick on this story, commodities underperforming. uti lower by almost 5% now, $58.60 -- wti lower by almost 5% now, $58 60 cents. there's the bid into the bond market, and i have to say, it's been obvious for a while now, that story around

chair powell, you are forecasting a very low unemployment rate.ting inflation at or above 2% by 2023. no rate hike in any of this. higher inflation rates? [inaudible] again, no rate hike expected. >> so, i guess the first thing to say is the sep is not a committee forecast. it's not something that we sit around and discuss and approve and say this represents our reaction function as a committee. it's a compilation from different people. it would be hard to say exactly why each participant did what they are going to do. all they would say about this is that, what i think is very clear guidance on lift off. labor market conditions that are consistent with maximum employment and we consider a wide range of indicators. not just see unemployment rate. reaching 2%. inflation that is on track to run 2% for some time. the first two of those three are very much database. they have a little bit of an element of expectations and. we are very much determined to implement this guidance in a robust way. implementing our new framework. to meet these standards, w

what did you makes of chair powell's comments about inflation temporarily rising do you have confidence in the central banks' ability to keep inflation around that 2% level >> i think the basic message i got from chairman powell is he's a man who feels like he's getting exactly what he wants from financial markets right now. i think we've seen enough of a rise in the ten-year treasury to take a bit of steam out of the equity and the housing markets i think that that rea sures him he's not going to have to worry so much about a bubble he feels like he's getting a green light to ignore what is an almost certain spike in inflation that we're going get in the year-over-year numbers. he made it clear he considers that to be temporary i'm going to also pick on something that diane said. i think this is the most important thing that came out of this message today my opinion, and that is the absolute clarity from treasury secretary yellen that they don't really care about the unemployment rate, that what they are focused on, they want a high pressure economy. they want to get back to that world

times. >> hi, chair powell. as you know, house votes are sitting on a lot of excess savings -- households are sitting on a lot of excess savings. i wonder if combined with that you have an unleashing pen up demand, how much do you think that would affect inflation? would you expect that to be transitory. >> you know, we, and everyone who is forecasting these, what we are all doing is we are looking at the amount of savings. we are looking at -- we have reasonably good data on that and we are looking at the government transfers that will be made as part of the various laws and we are trying to make an assess member on what will be the tendency of people to spend that money the marginal propensity to consume. from that, you can develop an estimate of the impact on spending, on growth, on hiring, and ultimately, on inflation so that's what we are all doing. and we have -- you know, we have -- we can look at history, and we can make estimates. and those are all very transparent and public and you can compare one to

the focus on the nations capital , chair powell and secretary ellen.is bloomberg. ♪ >> for the second time in less than a week, there has been a mass murder in the u.s. a man with a rifle opened fire in a supermarket in boulder, colorado, killing 10 people. one of them was the first police officer to arrive. one suspect has been arrested. eight people were killed. secretary ellen and chair powell will get a sense of how concerned congress is about inflation. they will begin two days of congressional hearings today. president biden is ready to propose a more expensive bill to fix the infrastructure. biden administration is taking part in a climate summit cohosted by china today. if you days after the two countries squared off in their first face-to-face meeting since joe biden took office. china is responsible for 30% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. citigroup will begin having zoom free fridays. according to a memo from the ceo to employees, zoom will be bound on fridays, at least for internal meetings. she designated may 28 as a firm wide holi

hi, chair powell. thanks for that. would you talk us through how the forecast for 2021 map into the substantial further progress definition, you know, 2.4% inflation, i understand that's considered transitory and still seems like progress there, 4.5% unemployment, is it time to start talking about tapering yet? show less text not yet. so as you pointed out, we've said that we would continue asset purchases at this pace until we see substantial further progress. that's actual progress, not forecast progress. so that's a difference from our past approach. so what we mean by that is pretty straightforward. we want to see that the labor markets have -- labor market conditions have moved, you know -- have made substantial progress toward maximum employment and inflation has made substantial progress toward the 2% goal. that's what we're going to want to see. that obviously includes an element of judgment and when we see -- we'll be carefully looking ahead, we also understand that we will want to provide as much advance noti

it didn't day, it was so dovish coming from chair powell.going to be basically full-on rotation trade once again in the future? >> it looks like that yield tech relationship is start to go falter a little bit. you saw it earlier this week as well. you saw yields rise and tech rise. that was the story earlier as well. when you see that defensively play come back into the market, i think what is important to note here is that we are talking about the cyclical rotations. that is going to be a no-brainer. the question is does tech come look for the ride. we talked about this on the show a lot. do you see that massive inflation rally which includes the entire economy, all sectors of the economy, or is one sector coming at the expense of the other. that's really, i think, more of the question here because, of course, you do want tech on your side if you want the benchmark gains. that's what people are after. joe: let's go back to the recent backup in rates from a few weeks ago. there was that day or maybe two days where it was extremely violent or

coming up, more on fed chair jay powell.he rising yields and what it means for the market going forward, should there be pushback? this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ romaine: when we came into this thursday, stocks were in a holding pattern, investors waiting to see what jay powell say, particularly about the jump in bond yields. they didn't like what they heard, bond yields spiked and the stock market tournament lower. it is not clear what they wanted out of him. he has been consistent. joe: extremely consistent. let's listen to powell. >> we want labor market conditions consistent with our assessment of maximum employment. we want inflation sustainably at 2%. these are desirable outcomes that would represent an economy that is very far along the road to recovery. as a release of the bond market, we want to see had would be concerned if we didn't see orderly conditions in markets and we don't want to see tightening. we think we are likely to see inflation moving up during the course of the year. businesses will be potentially hit by a

caroline: bated breath as always fed chair powell. coming up, we talk even more about the fed chair and the potential for operation twist. julia coronado is with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ s bloomberg. ♪ romaine: welcome back to the most serious show on television. today we are focused on the positivity in the markets. joe: super serious. is that why you did not get me one of those fun mugs? we don't joke around on here. ism today extremely strong, but more risk for some inflation talk. prices up to a 12 year high. that is the white line, searching. -- surging. inventory also plunging. you see the supply chain really getting squeezed. higher prices, so more reason for people to keep talking inflation. caroline: but today we decided not to, which is weird. joe: yes. romaine: is she criticizing our show? [laughter] joe: joining us with more insight, julia coronado. everyone is talking about inflation. they are also talking about the selloff we have seen in rates. let's start there. has anything you have seen on the right side put pressure

fed chair powell sounding more upbeat. >> fiscal policy overall will have really helped us to avoid muchthe scarring we were very concerned about at the beginning. i think that is the side and speed -- the size and speed with which congress has delivered. it will make a you difference in people's lives. joe: what is most interesting is people are not just as upbeat as last year but they are more upbeat than they were before the crisis. >> people are spending more money than they did last year and growing at 10%. that was before the pandemic. joe: the massive infusion of cash to households dramatically different from the financial crisis and could lead to a new economic trajectory. caroline: nice beats on that package. shout out to the producers. our bloomberg markets producer is here on some incredible charts. i feel like equities have inched it. >> it really did. a lot of it is not equities broadly. it is tech. not only has that changed the u.s. benchmark but it has helped the u.s. benchmark become such a bigger power of the global equity market cap. that is a really interesting comment

fed chair jerome powell tries to hold the line. bank stocks are booming. much more on the new rate reality and shake shack doubling down on the digital push with uber eats. the ceo will join us "power lunch" starts right now >>> welcome to "power lunch. while the nasdaq sinks the dow hitting a record high. dominic chu has more on today's action. >> it feels like a decade ago talking about tech and financials being the key parts of the market to drive things. you heard melissa mention 1.754% that was the high intraday so far for the 10-year treasury note yield go back to january of last year for the same level that rate shock is driving a lot of action in the market so far right now. take a look at the parts we mentioned. start with what's happening with technology ap apple shares off 2%. these are off the lows of the session. these four stocks represent a very large chunk of both the s&p 500 and even more so the nasdaq 100 with the decrease in growth stocks and technology driving things look at tesla, zoom video, paypal staggering moves but seeing the pull

the economy is well positioned to bounce back, but it will take time with chair powell saying, quote,s progressed more quickly than generally expected. in large part due to significant fiscal and monetary policy we will start with the markets, and all the major averages in a bit. morgan, let's get to you as we look at the broader market, i wonder what you're listening for. obviously inflation and whether we're seeing it in corporate earnings is always an interesting point of perspective here >> yeah. look no further than general mills earnings this morning. the ceo on the conference call said, quote, inflation is broad based and global and that quote, we will realize pricing. i know we can debate especially when we talk about food prices or gasoline is also in focus right now. the possibility of 3 dollars for a glan of gas. it can ebb and flow, but it gets back to the broader debate about what all of this stimulus in the market, whether it's fiscal or the monetary -- whether it's monetary you know, what longer term that is going to mean that is going to look like not surprising to hea

some highlights from chair powell's remarks. chair powell: i would like to start that noting that it has been a full year that the pandemic arrived with force on our shores. the economic fallout has been widespread. we can say that some of the very worst economic outcomes have been avoided and while we welcome positive developments, no one should be complacent. the high level of joblessness has been especially severe with lower wage workers in the service sector and african-americans and hispanics. the path ahead remains uncertain. the state of the economy in the next two to three years is highly uncertain. we are on a good path with cases coming down, but we are not done and i would hate to see us take our eye off the ball before we finished the job. we would like to see inflation run moderately above 2% for some time. we have resisted the temptation to try to quantify that. we will begin to make master progress on spending and the inflation markets as the year goes on because of the progress with the vaccines and the fiscal su

chip stocks are rallying but first let's get to steve liesman with the economic recovery of fed chair powell and treasure secretary janet yellen steve? >> providing some hint of a level of interest rates to cause him concern and might prompt that action and said that so far the rise in yields looks to be more linked in the outlook for the improvement in the economy and is to be expected. >> there's been an underlying sense of an improved economic outlook and has to be part of why rates would move back up from the low levels they were at back up toward levels that were more likely to see and that's been an orderly process. i would be concerned if it were not or if conditions were to tighten to the point where they might threaten our recovery. >> powell did not say what that magical mystical or mythical level of bond yields was that would threaten the recovery and said some supply bottlenecks in the economy but saw them in the inflation as temporary the conclusion after two days of hearings, the monetary policy unscathed and has a political green light to stay the course on current policy. tyl

chair powell: just making sure. >> we are joined next by the chair and ranking member of the rules committee, representative jim mcgovern from massachusetts and also from oklahoma, tom whole. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. the 1973 war powers act, chairman mcgovern, tell us about that act and why the rules committee in the house is taking up a revision of that act. guest: lyndon johnson had a line, he said it is easy to get into war, hard as hell to get out. over the years, both democratic and republican presidents have initiated military intervention and action involving our troops without appropriate consultation with congress, without congressional approval. basically, usurping congressional power when it comes to the issue of war. the war powers act, which was past 50 years ago, was supposed to balance things out. quite frankly, it hasn't. we had a hearing yesterday and the rules committee to examine how we could do things better. we talked about updating the war powers. -- war powers resolution. it was a bipartisan committee hearing. i am fortunate to serve with my ranking member

was the miracle we need to see today from chair powell? eric: the biggest miracle he is the 10 year range state of claim. if we see that reset to one and a half and 2% we don't think asset markets are prepared for that. what i think that means in terms of guidance is the chair powell says not only do i recognize what's happening with the yield curve but there could be some action. with respect to price movement. that is something from an asset prices across asset price perspective training in the top end of the range through that texas two-step i think will be important for markets to understand. lisa: why would he engage with that? eric: the biggest thing would be the fed canal at the 10 year away from them. -- the fed cannot let the 10 year get away from them. the fed unfortunately left that 10-year drift above and it got away from them. i think if you look at the cacophony of information we have and siphon through, the biggest factor will be if the fed hints they may consider twists, they may consider stemming the back end of the curve

as chair powell has highlighted, we had historically week prices last year.nically you will see inflation rates rise. on top of that you're likely going to see some price pressures in the categories at the epicenter of the crisis. hotels, restaurants, those type of things. from that perspective, there is a sharp rise in the near term make sense. i think beyond that, we do expect moderation in inflation as our baseline expectation. the risks are skewed to the upside for the first time in a long time, and that is primarily due to regime shift. from the fiscal side, sending -- spending significantly is clearly a regime -- a regime shift from the fed perspective. encouraging inflation to move higher. there is -- lisa: there is a question of whether the 1.9 trillion bill expected to pass and the follow-up infrastructure bill, is that enough to trigger inflation substantially higher than what is currently priced in? matthew: when you look back over history, it tended to be a complement of events that lead to higher inflation. if you look back at the mid-1950's, we

we heard from chair powell that it is not disorderly enough. the market is going to tantrums some more. i think the market is looking ahead. every market is looking to the end of covid, but at the end of covid we have a certain post-covid normal, but we also have a lot of treasuries. i think the fed has a really high bar. to taper, they have a shorter bar to hike. it is really the long and that i think is going to force the fed's hand, but we are not there yet. i think rates are going to keep rising until we get that disorderly market functioning or we get that persistent tightening in financial conditions. i think it is fair -- jonathan: i think it is fair to say that seven year auction was disorderly. we have 38 billion dollars worth of 10 year notes as well. to what degree are you concerned about that extra supply coming next week? priya: i am very nervous. i think we were looking for the fed chair -- we didn't get that support. i can't say the auction will be havel. we know that auction is coming up. we don't have any more fed talk on black

vincent: chair powell pushes back against that idea very hard.a of maximum employment is interpreted pretty generally. it is not just a single number. having this summer of economic projections target and unemployment rate, they look at market conditions pretty generally. by the way, that is the problem with monetary policy right now. it is pretty ambiguous. i can't answer what maximum employment is. jay powell doesn't want to. jonathan: do you have any idea what they would be looking for? what would be on the dashboard of the modern-day fed? vincent: it is a pretty crowded dashboard, and hard to orient yourself. look, it is the unemployment rate. but it is not just the unemployment rate for a working age population. it is going to be the underserved as well. it will be a black american -- it will be black americans, hispanic americans. they are looking at low-wage workers. they are going to want to see that the economy is inclusive. janet yellen's experiment was run the economy hot and see how well you can do with the labor market, and the answe

chair powell, you are forecasting a very low unemployment rate. forecasting inflation at or above 2% by 2023. no rate hike in any of this. higher inflation rates? [inaudible] again, no rate hike expected. >> so, i guess the first thing to say is the sep is not a committee forecast. it's not something that we sit around and discuss and approve and say this represents our reaction function as a committee. it's a compilation from different people. it would be hard to say exactly why each participant did what they are going to do. all they would say about this is that, what i think is very clear guidance on lift off. labor market conditions that are consistent with maximum employment and we consider a wide range of indicators. not just see unemployment rate. reaching 2%. inflation that is on track to run 2% for some time. the first two of those three are very much database. they have a little bit of an element of expectations and. we are very much determined to implement this guidance in a robust way. implementing our new framework. to meet these stan

selloff in the arch, the major averages making a sharp move lower following comments from fed chair jay powell nasdaq dipping negative for the year let's look at what's driving the action fed chair jay powell raising the specter of inflation at a "wall street journal" conference this afternoon saying the economic reopen, quote, could create some upward pressure on prices. those comments helped lead to a spike in treasury yields powell didn't want to seem to did anything about it. it is also pressuring high growth stocks, apple down around 1.5% tesla taking another leg lower as well. one bright spot in the action, the energy sector winning once again. crude oil prices jumping on news of an opec agreement to keep output unchanged 59 minutes left to go, wilfred in another active session. >> energy topped materials, havingly bod told by tech, down 2% we are off the lows as we speak. on today's show we will be all over the volatile market as we head into the close with a lineup including david rosenberg, victoria, fernandez, stephanie link and mohamed el-erian plus we will speak with kroger's ceo a

let's head back to fed chair jerome powell and janet yellen testifying in front of the house financial services committee >>> as quick as you can so they are there. we need to use them now. so many of our people cannot get the money quickly because they don't have the kind of high standing within our financial system when you put these things in bank owned and get my payment, we need to use them right now. i appreciate you looking into that now, let me move to you. the american rescue plan also included $350 billion in assistance to state and local governments to make up for the lost revenue and to ease the economic impact of the covid-19 pandemic when can local governments to expect treasury to release guidance on the american rescue plan >> well, we have to issue guidance quite quickly i think within 60 days and to distribute the funds and we're working very hard to sort through the issues that we need to in order to provide clarity about the purpose of the funds and how they can be used >> all right,sir madame chair lady, i am concerned we have the treasury secretary here and we hav

but then the yieldsfell, but then fed chair jay powell spoke, spiking the ten-year yield sending tech lower steve, what more specifically the fed chair said that markets reacted to and why steve? >> morgan, good afternoon, a bit of a head scratcher about what fed chair powell might have said, with some of his comments very dovish and failure to commit to act to keep a lid on yields striking a very dovish tone when it comes to the outlook. among the things he said, he did note that he had seen the a -- previously, quote, caught my attention, and he struck a dovish tone, saying sometimes it will achieve -- and adding to that, saying the fed is not going to hike just because the labor market is strong powell essentially reiterated comments he had previously made that higher inflation is coming, but believe it would be temporary and not a reason for the fed to act preemptively. >> businesses and people would need to believe that larger increases in prices would be repeated year after year the more likely that it would be one-time effects >> effect to act to lower had risen to the point th

is there merit to that did that make this even trickier for fed chair powell to make a decision because they were getting that kind of pressure? >> it's not clear that it's a one-to-one that it would constrict lending. what's going on and one of the reasons that they did offer this relief in the first place is between quantitative easing and huge treasury issuance there's a lot of reserves being created that sit within banks. it's kind of like deposits and cash having capital be put up against it that in itself will restrict lending. one reason the market did not get too overexcited or alarmed about this decision is apparently in the interim, a lot of the treasury holdings, for example, are no longer at the holding company level for the banks. they have put it down into the subsidiaries they found work-arounds, in other words, to this point i think one of the issues was going to be and maybe will be what is going to be the net demand for treasury securities as we try to fund the stimulus and deficits from here on out. it's not so much that banks will elvis have to start liquidating thin

. -- chair jerome powell. it begins live on new dean stern at c-span. listen with the free c-span radio app. >> as we begin the week here in washington journal we will take a look at the busy week ahead for the administration in particular with resin biden. where joined by brett samuels. guest: good morning, thank you for having me. host: let's start with the conversation we are having about the border. the homeland security secretary making the rounds on the sunday shows yesterday. any further word on whether the president will address this either in the news conference on thursday or in other ways? guest: i think the home and secured he secretary being on the sunday shows underscores the extent to which this is an issue which the biden demonstration is having to address on essentially a daily basis. i would expect it to come up thursday at president biden's first extended press conference. in addition to that, we will see officials from the biden demonstration traveling to the border, or from the podium addressing it almost every day. we will see ques

janet yellen and fed chair jay powell will testify to congress.eck in on the bloomberg's first word news now, i am rich, up to. we are getting more details on the shooting deaths of 10 people in a supermarket. police identify the shooter as a 21-year-old. he is now in custody. among those killed were the first policeman arriving to the store. president biden is making a push for his next multitrillion dollar spending bill. this one is focused on infrastructure. he said it could enshrine u.s. competitiveness against china for decades to come. americans are heading north across the border being spurred by promises of stimulus deal resurgence in the u.s.. the number of monthly apprehensions of working age mexicans traveling without children has grown. at a yearly rate, the most in a decade. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is blue. guy: treasury secretary janet fed chair jay powell about two of three days of congressional t

the drum to fed chair jay powell on thursday.ow much will they push back against the bond market move? they have not been willing to do so up to now. at what point will they start to get concerned? 10:00 a.m., we start to get some data, manufacturing information from the unit dates, -- from the united states, which may be dealing with some interference from the weather. we will also be getting construction data. very interesting to see how much the increase in mortgage rates has affected the demand for housing, the demand to build new homes. at 1:30 p.m., jamie dimon, ceo of jp morgan, will be joining us on bloomberg television. a lot of questions about the economy, about the competitive landscape. i know you are not watching this perhaps as closely as bond yields, but i find it interesting, the new entrants into this race with data being the key deponent of what establishes one player -- key component of what establishes one player in the fintech world from another. jonathan: on the bond market, i think it is always interesting

chair powell, secretary yellen. secretary yellen, chair powell. 12:00 p.m. eastern. in megan green, harvard kennedy school senior fellow. do you think it's premature to have the cycle conversation? maybe the fed never raising interest rates. >> i think it is a little premature. there is a huge debate about what kind of inflation we are going to get. we know we will get some temporarily. the fed has acknowledged as much. will it be sustained, that's a big question. i think if we have unemployment as for -- at 4.5% as the fed expects, and yellen says we get to full employment next year. and we have inflation at two point 5%, it is going to be increasingly untenable for the fed to argue that the appropriate rate -- i think the fed will be pushed into hiking sooner rather than later so i think the scenario where the fed never hikes is pretty unlikely. jonathan: are you a kaplan 22 type of call if you are on the fomc right now? >> the said -- the fed has said they will provide a long runway for investors. if we ended up having the fed hiking in 2022 it would probably happ

above 1.6 i think it's at 1.63, 1.62 we'll watch tomorrow the results of the fed meeting and chair powell's press conference. court, great to be with you. thanks, everybody, for watch the "power lunch." "closing bell" right now. >> welcome to "the closing bell." i'm wilfred frost along with sara ieisen. the nasdaq had been clinging to gains but also just fell into the red moments ago. let's have a look at what's driving the action faang tech stocks were in the lead but less of a lead. energy is the big decliner today. that sector down over 2% a notable decline in month ly retail sales the xrt down 2% off the back of that industrial production, housing numbers a bit soft as well we're see momentum plays lag, off by 3% or 4%. hotels, cruise lines losing steam as well. the dow down 0.4%, 130 points or so, sara, midsession lows with 59 minutes left in the session. >> drifting lower all afternoon. coming up on today's show, a rare sitdown with the ceo of palantir it's been a hot stock. >>> plus a stern warning about esg. we'll talk to the former chief investment officer for sustainable investing

fed chair jerome powell, ecb president christine lagarde.eantime, norway is seeing signs of a faster recovery and is moving closer to raising rates. the norge bank today kept its main rate unchanged, but is basically looking to hike by the latter half of this year. it could be the first developed nation to do so since the pandemic broke out. joining us now from oslo is the norge bank governor -- the norges bank of an -- bank governor, hoisting olson -- governor, wasting olson -- governor, oystein olsen. is it a risk being this hawkish this early? mr. olsen: we are not out of those problems. we have fx rates going up in our country. but more importantly, as regards the outlook, the economy is in recovery. given the prospects of having access to vaccines, we assume that a large part of the population will be vaccinated by the summer, we focus on opening up society for the summer. given that, we foresee strong growth and normalization of activity. we will have unemployment going down. and in that prospect, there is a time to start normalizing p

mind, but i think they have had these in mind when chair powell has been giving speeches saying he's going to look at average inflation. if this was an inflationary impact, they believe it is only going to be temporary, so they are not going to react too much. the dot plots, i agree, look a little strange, but that has been true for 12 straight years that the dot plots have not been great predictors. so i wouldn't put too much weight on that. alix: there's your headline, dot plots look strange, by austan goolsbee. powell has made it clear he will not stand in the way of higher rates. to you think the market is going to test the fed in a different way? what if we get a 10% correction in the s&p? if we see higher rates ignored by the fed, what is the knock on effect, and was the feedback loop to the fed? austan: as you know, i have never been a fan of the fed tying its monetary policy decisions to what the stock market reaction is. i don't think that the fed wants to be held hostage, where if the market goes up or down, than they have to go change their fundamental valuation of what th

been on what seems like an unstoppable run and it could all be resting in the hands of fed chair jerome powell we'll explore that this hour. >>> plus, retail sales slipping a little bit in february but with stimulus checks on the way, the national retail federation says record sales are not far behind later, home builder sentiment cooling just a bit but the stocks are sizzling. that's according to one analyst. he will join us as "power lunch" starts right now >>> thanks, tyler. it's good to be with you here on "power lunch." the s&p 500 hitting a record today and it comes exactly one year after plunging 12% in one of the worst days ever i think many of us remember that one, hard to forget. let's bring in bob pisani for more on the market's battle back good afternoon, bob. >> courtney, i was on the floor that day and it was one to remember, march 16th, 2020, was the day when covid got very real for market investors everyone realized that the shutdown was going to last a very long time the dow industrials dropped 12.9% on that day one year ago it was the second biggest percentage loss ever for t

do we have a sense of what disorderly means to chair powell?: i don't think yields are going to go shooting up because of this, especially because of the timeframe. they were more concerned yields would rise rapidly on the rescue plan because you are over $2 trillion being spent in less than a year. that could add a lot of pressure to inflation, which would send yields higher. but if growth rises along with yields, as this plan is designed to do, yields will stay under control because there is it not going to have to be an expensive premium as it -- premium in it. we see yields higher today, but lower than yesterday before the headline about the plan. maybe a has to do with the plan coming in at $2.25 trillion instead of the $3 trillion that was focused on. jonathan: what is the first rule of monetizing the deficit, mike? don't talk about monetizing the deficit. [laughter] they don't say they are doing it come but they're doing it in europe, doing it in america. if we know what we know already, that high yields are in and put on financial condi

chair powell: thank you. sen. brown: thanks. sec. yellen: about. and esco live to the white house where press secretary jen psaki is briefing reporters. >> -- women working then there were in -- in large part because of the pandemic. millions more women have had to reduce their hours, often because taking care of children is a responsibility that continues to fall disproportionately on women. our economic recovery depends on us addressing the barriers that have hampered women from fully participating in the labor force. the american rescue plan will change the course the pandemic and deliver immediate relief and support to women, families and communities. critical to building a more equitable economy. the plan will increase the tax credit from $2000 per child to $3000, and even more for a child under the age of six. this means a typical family of four with two children will receive an additional 3200 dollars in assistance to cover the costs associated with raising children. this will benefit 66 million children. the plan will increase the earned in

. -- chair powell he wasn't worried. >> we didn't get that support. >> the market is going to tantrum more. jonathan: let's bring in the team. jim beyond coke, gershon distenfeld, and mary kay henry -- jim bianco, gershon distenfeld and mary kay henry. >> we just have to look at credit spreads to come to that conclusion. why would they show their hand to early? they only have to show their hand if there is a significant issue for the economy rather than the equity markets. so far, everything looking good. jonathan: i am looking at the story, 14 basis point. if the data is better at the longer end, isn't that what chairman powell wants? >> he doesn't want it to go up too much because that will undo what still needs to be done. it is really great to have fixed income back in the news. i think people are way too fixated on short-term movement. the key questions have nothing to do with the short-term. it is what will it look like post-covid? how much of the supply has been destroyed and how fast will it come back. jonathan: do you mean the difference between the reopening or the cycle? ge

but i think we are going to get the same story we have been hearing from the statement and chair powellthe press conference. romaine: a lot of the talk or at least a lot of the fear of inflation rearing its head seems to but up against an argument made that there are structural forces out there, technological forces out there that have created disinflation or at least kept inflation at bay. is there any sincere that that narrative has changed? tim: no, i think it is far too early. we think of it in terms of the idea here is that we can push unemployment to very low levels before we see inflationary pressures emerge. under the circumstances, the fed is really focused on inflation. and we are well away from full employment. so i think the fed is serious about interest rate policy as long as they can possibly be. caroline: it feels as though the market is already pricing in inflation expectations when you are looking at the breakevens to a large extent. how much do they need to keep on guiding the markets, that we are going to see eye-popping inflation numbers? at the moment, the market se

so we're going to see tomorrow if chair powell acknowledges inflation risk and talks about options. if he talks about options, you're actually going to get a bid in bonds, interestingly enough, and in high-yielding equities that yield more than the 10-year. we've talked about utilities and staples in recent weeks on your show, they're all up now 5-10% plus. we think big pharma is next. we like pfizer, novartis and merck. and not only do they have high yields, between 3.5-4.a 5%, they're trading at 13 times earnings versus the s&p at 22 times earnings. we like that bargain, liz. liz: yeah. and all the big names are higher in pharma land. scott bauer, talk to me about what you see as, in re call the owe's words -- ray dalio's words, stuff that gives you much better returns than bonds. >> sure. who am i to argue with ray dalio? however, i agree with tom. u.s., there's still a lot of upside here. so what i'm looking at, liz, in this environment it is very, very difficult to pick an individual stock let alone a sector. but i really like even with the little bit of runup that we've had ov

but the nasdaq turned around during fed chair powell's press conference.isberg. teddy, why do you think the nasdaq in particular saw that turn-around? suddenly tech becomes the hot trade within a matter of seconds, and on top of that, what looks cheap to you now within the nasdaq? >> well, i think, i think the turn-around in the tech sector in general, liz, was probably as a result of the fact that the fed chairman basically said interest rates were going nowhere possibly til 2023. and they have sort of suffered a little bit as interest rates, at least the long bond, you know, made it look like interest rates were going to go higher across the board. i think at least in the short term, that hurt the tech sector. is so i would say based on what we heard today, you know, the techs are back in favor. but i think the bigger story, liz, is still the rotation out of the tech sector into the broader market. because, basically, the message is the u.s. economy and the world's economies are going to do better as we come out of this covid shell that we've been in for

. >> they are related and they have to do with comments that fed chair jerome powell is making at "the wall street journal" job summit addressing some concerns about inflation, whether transitory, short term, what not i'm sure you guys will talk about it a lot more as the show progresses but those comments coming and it does have an effect on the overall markets now down 265 points. that is important because we were just moments ago within the last two or three minutes near the lows of the day down over 300 points for the dow but again off 1% the s&p 500 recovering as well 3779 the last trade there and the nasdaq saw under performing as it has of late on down days down 1.75% 12,761 the last trade there. let's look at the move in yields and put it in context over the longer term. 1.53% is the last trade for 10-year benchmark u.s. treasury note yields. you have to go back to february of last year to find levels that were like that but remember just in the last week or so we saw 1.61% intraday that was the high just in the last week for the 10-year note yield. interest rates starting to r

and you heard chair powell yesterday talk about we want a strong labor market recovery, not just a strongy, but inclusive recovery. when he talks about when are we going to meet the parameters, it's not just about one number, the unemployment rate, but all the other things that make us understand when are we truly looking at employment. investors are learning to learn at unemployment and the labor market metrics in a different way as well. joe: i'm curious, as they sort of start to move away from the headline numbers, powell was very clear that the headline labor numbers that you would normally look at, that they're not necessarily illustrative of what is really going on in the labor market. how do you sort of quantify some of the more squishy sort of metrics that he is looking at to sort of determine whether or not this is an inclusive recovery? simona: well, i think you want to, first of all, get as much information across as many dimensions as you possibly can, so you are trying to see are historical discrepancies narrowing, are they exacerbating. i think it's going to be very, very di