in addition to chair powell, i am joined by my colleague scott walla, economic education coordinator at the st louis fed and the immediate past chair of the systems economic education group, scott will field your questions and moderate today's session with the chair. we, along with over 50 subject matter experts throughout the federal reserve, serve as an education outreach arm of the fed. our collective efforts are aimed at increasing educators ability to teach economics and personal finance while helping students and the public gain real life skills to increase their economic literacy and financial acumen. our group shares a passion about the role of educators in the lives of students, as well as the opportunities for students to learn more about economics and potentially pursuing the field professionally along that line, we're proud to be a partner in the launch of the inaugural economic education month. this october this will be a way to formally recognize and celebrate economic education. we hope that you will join us in promoting economic education by attending a federal reserve

we heard from fed chair powell.d not speak on the thing caroline cares most about, cryptocurrency. the central bank is exploring digital dollar and at some point will release some research. here to talk more about what the future may hold, we want to bring in eswar prasad, new fed chair of trade policy economics at cornell and his new book is aptly titled "the future of money: how the digital revolution is transforming currency and finance." thanks for being here on the program. i do want to start off with the elephant in the room, which a lot of people were not necessarily expecting jay powell to talk about cryptocurrency, but they are awaiting to hear from the fed in this research report, i guess, about what the role, if any, the fed may actually have in the general crypto space. eswar: my understanding is that the fed is going to explore the design options. what they are talking about is retail central bank digital currency that could replace the physical dollar bills you may still have in your wallet, or at leas

chair powell reassuring -- and powell's devastating taper. i am here in the u.s.ned with francine lacqua. powell seemed to deliver what he wanted. a dovish type of taper. some tried to say it was not dovish at all. he is very o

lisa: throwing support behind fed chair powell.nk a lot of former fed officials are like, why rock the boat? tom: not a small item. lisa: it is not, especially at a time of so much uncertainty when the fed really does control the markets. a lot of people have said the main challenge to stocks right now is a possible policy error. keeping things the way they are is going to reduce the anxiety around that. tom: it really folds into how we get through q3 and q4 because we have a mystery of what gdp is going to be. at least a lot of different opinions. kailey: what gdp is going to do, what the markets are going to do , where the s&p 500 ends up. there seems to be why divergence among where they think different assets will go, the fed is a huge question mark within that. to the point about fed chair powell, maybe some continuity if he is appointed to a second term. you also have to consider where powell stands relative to the other members of the fomc and how big that divergence in opinion is between the leader and the members. tom: bil

chair powell: good afternoon. we are strongly committed to achieving the monetary policy goals that congress has given us, maximum employment and price to billy. the committee cap interest rates near zero and maintained our asset purchases. these measures along with our strong guidance on interest rates and our balance sheet will ensure that monetary policy will continue to support the economy until the recovery is complete. progress in vaccinations and physical policy actions are providing strong support. indicators of employment have strengthened and real gdp this year appears to be on track to post its fastest rate of increase in decades. much of this growth reflects the bounce back connectivity from depressed levels. the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic of shown improvement, have not fully recovered. household spending is rising at a rapid pace. it's boosted by the reopening of the economy and ongoing policy support. the housing sector remains very strong and business investment is increasing at

waiting on chair powell. >> all eyes will be on fed chair powell's comments. >> chair powell. >> fed >> will be visiting very closely. >> the july fomc minutes stole the thunder. >> the consensus now is jackson hole will be less exciting. >> you have to look beyond jackson hole. >> the fed communicates tapering. >> we look toward the september fed meeting. >>

lisa: i will not find personally but most analysts expect chair powell will remain chair powell nextin the year after that. the uncertainty i wonder what kind of premium you place on this. how do you trade on the fact there could be a change in lagarde at the top of the fed? jon: futures up on the s&p 500, up nine, advancing .2% on the s&p 500. yields are unchanged at 1.1786 on tens. in two hours, four minutes, 17 seconds we will have jobless claims in america. the euro-dollar 1.1843. positive .005%. thank you, tom. this is bloomberg. ♪ in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. and there you have it - wireless on the fastest, most reliable network. wow! big deal! we get unlim

chair powell reassuring -- and powell's devastating taper. i am here in the u.s.oined with francine lacqua. powell seemed to deliver what he wanted. a dovish type of taper. some tried to say it was not dovish at all. he is very clear on what the timeline is to some extent. francine: i know twitter has people staying it is a dovish comment. if you look at the initial market reaction, stocks up, yields down, dollar weaker, corporate credit tightening. all things equal to a dovish speech. this is what the markets are doing in europe. there is a little bit of assurance. monday is off -- also a holiday in the u.k.. you can see the european stocks 600 probably traders taking a little bit of assurance from comments of jay powell that they will guide the markets through this and that is what people were expecting. gold climbing. it is definitely climbing for a whole week. this was in part to what we heard from jay powell and we have some great charts that are put -- that are put together. old was wavering, but it has not done badly at all. alix: it has not. it is helped b

chair powell mentioned the economy has been able to adapt. a lot of people have been working from home. there is still the significant portion of the country who worked in the service sector. they still face uncertain futures. chair powell has mentioned that. given the economic trends, that may be changing. that might be exacerbated. we don't know if school closures or sentiment will affect the way businesses plan. host: does the federal government serve a role stabilizing the economy? guest: there are at eight crossroads. in march, they cut the baseline interest rate down to 0%. they've been buying up $20 billion of bonds per month. it's a way for them to keep borrowing costs and interest rates low. now we've gotten to the point where they are starting to think about how they are going to pull that back and reduce the stimulus. the economy is better than it was before the pandemic. the delta variant has raised questions about how quickly they should go, countering inflation as well. host: you talked about those benefits being extended with t

>> reporter: yes, the vice chair of the federal reserve, richard, you're the main act after powell warmed up the main stage thanks for joining us. >> you bet >> let me start off with one of the things the fed chair said. he said there's been substantial further progress on inflation but just clear progress when it comes to employment. do you agree with that what is the distinction between the two? >> well, i do agree with that, steve. we did send out a test for slowing the pace of our purchases in december. we wanted to see that substantial progress, further progress, be towards our mandate. and i do agree with the chair. we certainly met that standard with regards to inflation am we say we like inflation to average 2% over time and certainly this year we'll do that i think we have made progress on the labor market in july we decided it wasn't substantial. we've had 800,000 jobs per month for the last three months. and so i expect that those gains will continue in the fall. and if that happens, i would also support commencing reduction in the pace of our purchases later this year. >> yeah

shop pet prescriptions and more at chewy.com today. >>> the countdown is on fed chair j. powelltual jackson home symposium in just two hours. but first we'll hear from philly fed president patrick harker, that's just moments away meantime restaurants are grappling with mask and vaccine mandates and how to lead the the needle at a time when they are already critically short of workers. plus a behind-the-scenes story from the early days of covid vaccine development. as companies scramble to form partnerships and put resources in place we have sneak peek of cnbc's new digital documentary "a race against covid-19." final hour of "squawk box" begins right now >>> good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm melissa lee along with joe kernen becky and andrew are off today let's take a check on futures as we close out this week as we await jerome powell's speech at the jack son hole virtual symposium. nasdaq added about 39 points here treasury yields also stable as we await any sort of signal that a taper timeline could be in the coming on ten year 1.344%. we're watching ida i

chair powell, when he came into office said we make decisions. human beings make decisions and we're not driven by models and the discussion is showing the extremes within the committee and chair powell will do the wise, sagely thing pulling together as consensus saying we will have a moderated pace of tapering and it will depend on the data it will surely stay away from any sense of automatic or model driven >> they will not have the jobs report until after jackson hole. i'm glad you brought up the autopilot. people forgot about 2018 if you say when did the fed start cutting rates most would say 2020 after the pandemic but, no, they started in 2019 when the economy was in the very late stages of an expansion, when unemployment was dropping in a good way for a lot of the groups that had been stuck at a high level since the financial crisis why were we cutting rates in 2019, and what does that tell us about the likely moves into next year >> one of the things we have to keep in mind the situational -- the data and the situation of the economy is h

what i think is brilliant that chair powell did today was do what we love to see from chairs and give his own view. so, we now know, which we suspected, that he sits in the center of the committee. the consensus is formed that if things continue to come in as expected, they're likely to taper or announce taper before the end of the year. that really headed off the hawks. you talked about the handful of hawks that have come out pushing hard for an earlier start to taper, and we do think that's relevant that they're all onlying on record. it was more so for them to try to be sure that the timing of the taper did not slip into next year well, now with powell's acknowledgment the taper could start this year, the hawks may be pushing on a string >> oh, that's interesting. i'm looking at the market response, ellen, and thinking through all of this. is lower bond yields a good sign or not in many ways we're dealing with such a low-rate environment that usually we see rates rise whenever it looks like the economy will be on better footing. so, what does that tell you that rates are declining

greg: a slew of speakers, the opening act, of course, chair powell. let's bring in michael mckee.ig take away from all of this, investors seem to be happy. mike: everyone seems to be happy at this point. fed bank president i'll echo it today, all singing from the same hymn sheet. let's taper soon. jay powell at least hummed along if he was not singing the same words. he says he is on board as long as the economy develops as they expect, a standard fed line. if we don't get a surprise from covid, we will see tapering this year. wall street and main street is happy because basically the fed chairman said what everyone expected him to say, that we would get tapering this year. that has been the timetable all along. nothing that surprised anybody. the markets are priced for this. i think that is why we are seeing a positive reaction everywhere. matt: when we hear taper, does that mean going from $120 billion a month or going to zero? mike: it is a question of how quickly they do that. bank presidents have been saying we should do it relatively quickly, much more quickly than the last

we've often had a little bit of a skeptical view here about the extent to come chair powell speaks outmean by that is i think deep down the chair knows that the u.s. economy actually needs inflation to ultimately give the fed room to raise rates to a level that gets us to policy normalization at the same time, you know, he's wanted to not fan the flames of inflation, such that inflation expectations get unanchored and so, he's been the -- at the front of the line and the champion of this speech about everything being transitory when it comes to price dynamics and what has shocked us is that a good part of the market on certainly the bond market seems to be buying his rhetoric, even though they may know that deep down he doesn't mean it. he wants inflation >> it is fascinating brent, what were your takeaways from the last half hour. >> you know too, me, i think we keep focusing on inflation because the old fed taught us to focus on inflation this is not the old fed. we need stop focusing on inflation and focus on employment groelgt because this fed believes it probably kaugs broader cli

chair powell and you and others have advanced that. with the average inflation chart and the credibility of the commitment to make up for past issues -- [inaudible] given your remarks about core yield over the next two years would constitute enough, it seems to be asymmetric that we are not fully making up the past ownerships. am i misunderstanding the timing and measurement? is it because this is your opinion? how would you think about the credibility of the commitment of the symmetric to average aspect? dr. clarida: yeah, so let me be clear, i have given a number of remarks, including at peterson, and what i have emphasized since we rolled out the framework is that flexible average inflation targeting is a regime that has an x-ante aspiration to average 2% over time. we have had extensive staff briefings, and we have concluded that trying to make up for any particular backward calculation window of inflation is not really a robust strategy, so we put much more weight on forward-looking measures of inflation expectations. really all o

can we actually learn anything from the chair powell today? tom: what we are going to learn as they are going to extend forward. they are beyond data dependent, and i'm sorry, the most important thing on august 27 is the jobs report. lisa: what data are they looking at? is it all jobs? tom: this is a loaded question. there's the hard data, the soft data, but certainly the labor dynamics of this nation, they've got to be more front and center than they have ever been before. lisa: the one thing people say that they are watching very closely is the stock market. should the stock market disrupted in any material way, any hiccup will make them reverse any potential tapering or tightening in any capacity. is that built into markets at this point, the people who you're speaking to? taylor: you are certainly not seeing it right now. i would argue that stephen stanley nailed it at the bottom of the last hour, really hinting at some things you and i have been talking a lot about. what is $100 billion doing? what is the financial risk at this point? it

jon: can we skip chair powell today? frances: i wish i could skip all of the fed speak but what are we going to learn that we don't already know? we know a taper is coming, the biggest agreement on wall street is it is september or december. guess what, it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. what matters to me is how the taper is constructed, how long do they indicate it will extend or hint at. what is the composition of it? does powell divorce the idea of tapering leads you into rate hikes? so it is not the when, it is how the tapering in most markets, not the date. i would love to hear more about that. i think powell has a lot of disagreement behind him on the fed, probably going to go down the middle but we will be watching. jon: in a town hall with educators, i'm not sure if that is the form to get that done. frances donald, global chief economist and head of macroeconomic strategy. can we have a favorite? are we allowed to have a favorite? tom: i don't know, they'll all hate me. jon: yeah, they hate you. t

it is unclear what chair powell would do with that.om: what is the tone on the bank of england, francine? is there a taper frenzy there? what is the battle with governor bailey right now? francine: there's talk about a taper, but it probably would not come before the fed. it is very different here because we are contending with brexit and there's a severe shortage of workers for almost all indiscreet -- almost all industry groups. it is a small open economy, so it kind of comes at the u.k. from all sides. the bank of england is in a tricky situation, a bit like the fed, but even more difficult because it needs to fine-tune its message. tom: we stop the show right now to inform you of news that matters. you mentioned last hour, there's a chicken shortage? francine: there is, there's a chicken shortage because of the lack of drivers. i never get nando's because i know you usually get fancier places, tom, but it is one of the more popular chicken places here in the u.k., and they had to close about 104 stores because there's a shortage of

we are not expecting any strong signal from chair powell that the tapering is imminent. beyond that, rate hikes, we are penciling that in starting 2023 onward. from here until the middle of next year, a lot of things can go bad, so i don't think the stocks will start extrapolating the opinion to potential rate hikes. i think that is something we need to start worry about some -- worrying about some time in the second half of next year. rishaad: has the inflation discussion been put to bed? where are we with it? >> i'm sorry, come again. i did not catch you. rishaad: i was asking if the inflation discussion had been put to bed. it does rumble on, actually, and what is your take. >> we are of the view that inflation will be evaluated but will eventually fade out. we are in the camp expecting inflation to be temporary, and that is one of the reasons we are not expecting the process of tapering to be aggressive. it will be a gradual process. we are not really worried about significant repricing in rates market which would impact equities. yvonne: holger thought. we will have

, the night before jay powell gave his speech, we reported that the white house advisers are telling president biden that he should reappoint him to another four years as fed chair he? is he the right guy or is it time to move on? >> absolutely. it is a no-brainer. there is no characteristic of the chairman of the federal reserve that jay powell has not met successfully. he is very, very clear. he is disciplined. he is independent. he demonstrated his capacity to stand and work under pressure. let me tell you, jackson hole is probably the most international form of the federal reserve. it brings governors and economists from all over the world. the standing he has in the world is a very significant and i think at this stage, we need to reduce uncertainty rather than create more noise. haidi: how much are we underestimating the unknown eventualities because of the pandemic echo we keep saying this is an unprecedented disruption. are there unexpected models we are not prepared for? >> it is indeed unprecedented, especially with the unevenness of the impact. unevenness across sectors, population groups and were prices of change significantly. however, let us not ge

lisa: i'm focus on what the reaction is in markets to any indication of what fed chair jay powell would like to see in the tapering. we can say they will probably taper at some point this year but what we can say is what the reaction will be in bond markets. the last time we got a hawkish tilt in the language or perception of that's, we sell rates go down on the long end. does any taper talk lead to higher rates this time around. that is what i'm going to be watching. tom: what's interesting is the guesstimates for next year, whether it is the fed, our michael mckee, or others could use with a great dispersion of 2022 gdp from 22% out to the sixth level, taylor. that is the uncertainty we are focused on. taylor: if you want to talk about dispersion, 1000 point difference between a low estimate at high estimate for the s&p 500. we migrate northward and i believe it is ubs at 5000 for next year year end. that speaks to the -- next year to year end. that speaks to me not only the equity uncertainty of yesterday. tom: the equity uncertainty is there and the calendar marches on into q3. it s

bob: we are at an interesting point right now with chair powell and the fed in the crosshairs of what's going on in washington. he's got jackson hole in the september fomc meeting to back out of this. but right now we are well past the crisis. and the recovery is under way. and we are recovering a lot of lost jobs and we are going to close the output gap by the end of this year. and if m.m.t. continues with half a trillion in infrastructure bill and 3 1/2 trillion until various forms of stimulus, and the fed continues to print money and buy debt, i think there's a moral hazard there where you are looking at the fed underwriting a lot of government policies. i think it's a very good time for the fed to assert its independence, draw a line in the sand, and say that they are bringing these things to an end now. lisa: when and what commentary do you need to hear to get them to do that? as that inflation goes from transitory to worrying? bob: i think that's part of it. i think right now they can point to substantial further progress has been made on a lot of the things that they looked at. w

senator -- senator pelosi, call us -- chair powell oc, call us back into session. -- chair powell oc -- >> thank you to our soldiers, sailors, and marines who have shown incredible courage and compassion in this time. you are truly our national treasure. our hearts go out to our families who are mourningh. as a mother, i cannot fathom the pain you are enduring, and i think of the found -- thousands of families that have lost loved ones over there. they had their whole lives ahead of them. americans are looking for answers and they don't believe what is coming out of the administration. pelosi promised a hearing on august 17 and as of yet, no hearing. the last hearing they had was on windmills, totally disrespectful. i can't help but notice, why are our flags not flying at half mast? we should be weeping and mourning over the direction of our country. where are the house democrats? did adam shifty schiff fall off the face of the earth? congress must hold hearings to hold president biden responsible . i've been thinking about this. olden people responsible. during the 2020 20 election,

lisa: fed chair powell is going to take the stage at 10:00 a.m. to give his speech. really want to get to this point of the dual economic recoveries. it really goes to this feeling we are getting in markets that everything is rooming, that companies cannot or enough money , and they are absolutely raking in the cash, whereas there still is quite a bit of pain both in the labor market and beyond, particularly with respect to higher consumer prices that are definitely bleeding into sentiment. how does he cross-reference these two? what is the relationship between markets and the real economy, and which one is he focused on more? 8:30 am, we get personal income and spending data. we expect income for go up because of the child tax credits that came in. how much does spending on services decline as people cancel restaurant reservations or trips because of the delta variant? frankly, we are not in jackson hole right now, enjoying the burger you keep talking about, tom, because it was canceled because of the delta variant. at the clock a.m., i really want to harbor on this

it doesn't involve yet fed chair powell, new york fed president john williams nor rich clariter, the stening to anything else. as to what the market does, i don't think you get a major collapse i think this is being socialized you will get some pull back, and you should, because we are at bubblish level in some places because of the massive liquidity. i don't think this is a collapse situation. this is a let's get more sober situation. >> the point was made earlier, too, mohamed, i think steve was the one who made this point, that, look, this is still an awful lot of accommodation and it's still going to be taking place for a very long time even if they do start to gently taper, maybe come october or november, ten months from now they'll still be basically buying some of these assets in an economy that's been improving greatly. i think if you look at the unemployment dropping to 5.4%, you look at the inflation that we've seen lately, maybe there are some who think, probably you too, that they should be doing much more than this and even faster than they are telegraphing at this point

i think that is at the back of the head of chair powell and others they don't want market functioningld, you would also have us talking about prudential regulation. we've heard very little about this and that's a concern we also have the market malfunction possibility that people are worried about. >> liesman, what's friday supposed to be >> 750 but i've got a pretty tight range from like 400 to a million. i don't like too many of the forecasters are at a million i don't really follow them but they're part of the universe strong but not as strong as last time i think depending upon this delta variant, joe, what i'll do is take a pass on giving you my number, but i will come back later this week with some of the high frequency data that we've been following, the ukg and home base stuff it's done a pretty good job of directionally at least telling us where things are at. >> and anecdotally, is it easing where -- and it's not just restaurants. what was it the other day? it was like, no, we can't do that because we don't have delivery people. there are -- >> joe, i have no idea joe, i hav

where they're focused and we've started to see the pickup in labor supply we're in line with chair powell's thinking that september and october is sort of critical there where unemployment benefits are running out, teachers are back at schools that are fully reopened and people can go back to work more fully. and so you've got a bump in labor supply that's coming that's going to keep these jobs numbers heightened that means that by the end of the year we should have closed more than half of the way to the job losses that we've seen since covid began, or specifically governor brainerd talked about comparing to december of last year and so we closed the gap enough that we think that's what the fed will see as the substantial further progress on the labor market certainly by then they will have communicated along the way that they're ready to start tapering. >> so people will come back to work, sop up many of the john openings out there now, the unemployment rate will get closer to what the fed has targeted, which is pre-pandemic levels reasonably soon, so you expect december of this year to b

but i don't think that is a core concern for fed chair powell. he has not talked very much about an area of risk in the market, in the economy. the last press conference, when he was asked, he talked about how fundamentals are a bit out of bounds right now and once supply picks up, we would see a healthy market. i don't think housing is a driving factor right now for monetary policy. i don't think it will come up in a specific way. for me, the focus will be ensuring a full labor market recovery given the conference. taylor: there has been a lot of debate, i have heard it on both sides. one would argue that you taper mbs first. the other is, steady as she goes, like 2013, because we have a path and it works. would tapering nbf fix the housing issues we are currently experiencing? michelle: not really. the big challenge with the housing market is that inventory would be very low. it is a matter of getting enough time. and that should happen. in time. to me, in terms of the level of interest rates. but i think that is a small part of it. it is much

it is what chair powell thinks that matters and the marketplace has now embraced an even more dovish august or september about taper. now people are saying it won't come before november or december and that's why the market feels comfortable with continued liquidity injections from the fed. >> do you think at this point for fed chair powell, i mean, if we do see inflation in wages and you're seeing that starting wages are going up, you're seeing that across the board with people that are already employed there, do you fear a wage price spiral is being, i don't know, just not a fear anymore because it's been so long >> i don't think people quite understand how inflation works those of us who live through inflationary period are seeing what i call the cost push and demand pull inflation demand coming in. on the cost side it's not just about higher wages that's a good thing wages are coming up. it's also about higher transportation costs, also about higher import costs. on the demand side, you have the massive demand also adding to the inflationary pressures those who have seen the proc

. >> look, i think what chair powell is dealing with now is increasingly fractious fed, so you're hearing from bullard, rosen green, a number of folks from kaplan this morning and all of it is a little bit of hey, look, this doesn't make as much sense as it used to, so i don't think chair powell is going to get in front of a much broader audience and say anything supersubstantive because ultimately he's got to get his own cabinet in line first. >> all right jason, thank you you're the one man cabinet today. we really appreciate your point of view trying to explain these markets. it's god to have you jason brady. >>> meanwhile the s.e.c. is warming up to a bitcoin etf and the battle is well underway to see who will become the first money manager to get theirs out the door bob pisani is here with the latest bob? >> kelly, here's the problem everybody thought gary gents letter was going to be the golden boy for bitcoin he taught crypto at m.i.t. therefore he gets it no what gensler has done is intelligent. first he said i am in favor of financial innovation, and he's been very bullish on tha

powell. bidens advisors wait a second term for the fed chair. fighting valves retaliation after two bombs in kabul leave dozens dead and complicate the already messy u.s. withdrawal. >> we will not forgive. we will not forget. we will hunt you down and make you pay. anna: and temporary supply chain snags turn into a chronic headache. we will bring you our interviews from the auto sector. the ceo of gm and the president of a chinese ev maker. welcome to the program, everybody. let's take a look at where we are on the futures picture. yesterday, we were weaker across the u.s. equity market and also a little weaker across europe. the couple of factors weighing in. many people were focused on what was going on in kabul, those two bombs going off. from a humanitarian and geopolitical perspective, that was the dominant story of the day. it did have an impact on markets. it rattled stocks. certainly cyclical stocks. one of those with some relatively hawkish commentary coming through from the fed. talking about how they would still be in favor of some t

we will hear from chair powell. personal spending numbers closing out the week on friday.g staples, matt brill, and brian rehling is still with us. does data matter anymore?that is a question i look at as people look past data points and give reasons for -- what data point will be most important to you determining the path of yields? >> it is all about jobs. over the near term, hospitalizations. if jobs continue to print at 600,000, 700,000, we will be in good shape. the fed will eventually taper and that is good for the economy. but if you start to see hospitalizations, places a.d., 90% occupied, that is not something we tradition look for, but that is something you have to look for. brian: i am most focus on jobs and the economy. there are lots of temporary disruptions in the supply chain, etc., which distort inflation and some of the other data. the economic picture, the jobs picture on the most important. lisa: greg? greg: i would look at the intersection of jobs and inflation. average hourly earnings, sought competition -- composition of the data. one thing that was s

chair jerome powell signaling it's time.s time for an eventual winding down of the emergency economic stimulus program. here is why this matters the fed influences just about everything part of our financial lives, whether it's directly or indirectly it keeps money flowing through the economy. it insures that banks can give out loans. it steps in during times of crisis and that's what we're coming out of a crisis driven by the pandemic. in response, the fed lowered borrowing costs and purchased securities to stabilize the economy. today, though, growth is back. the stock market at all-time highs. the housing market shattering records. in fact, the prices of most things we buy are going up the fed believes it's time to pull back on that stimulus, a move referred to as the taper. a word you'll hear a lot tonight. following that, the fed may look to hike interest rates as well a policy shift even the hint of one will impact your investors the economy, even the value of your home, potentially, that's what we're going to dive int

romaine: coming up, chair powell, the tapir and the groundwork starting this year. measuring substantial progress. an eye on the cleveland report. loretta mester speaking with michael mckee in a moment. chairman powell taking stage. >> at the fomc's recent july meeting, i was of the view, as were most participants, that if the economy evolved as broadly as anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year. romaine: that was jay powell. let's get this conversation going. i will start with you, gene. we got that message of a possible tapir in 2021. with enough condition that it could be pushed back into 2022. is this what you expected? >> this is consistent. if we take apart what should happen and listen to what we think will happen based on what the consistent cores of that is speakers have been saying since june, this is very consistent. we are moving toward a tapir as a tapir as the labor market improves. it is not about inflation. inflation has checked the box. this is all about the labor market and it's gotten better. i

we are keeping our eyes on chair powell.s, that the delta very well have an economic effect. the labor market recovery have been put front and center for many central banks, including the federal reserve, including the reason why they are giving us all of this extraordinary monetary policy. the recovery is lower among those who are in public interaction jobs. they want to see people in those service industry jobs find more strength. that will be the support for the workforce return. but the question a lot of us have, the delta variant. he is saying that he is unclear if the delta variable have important economic effects. we have been watching the story of ark investment and cathie wood selling off ties to investments in china. she says the country seems to be in a state of retreat. and extrusive conversation with shelly bassett, she discussed the pullback from china and discussed the outlook for stocks. >> they are sending a strong message when they use expressions, as they did with the online education companies, they said

and the reason why the market has gone higher is that chair powell is in the market's corner i don't think he can do anything everyone's worried about taper and everyone's thinking about when that's going to take place. but if you really think about it, he has delta to give him some fallout shelter in his quest for tapering, which i don't think he wants to do we know eventually he'll have to do it. but it sort of does give the all cleek sign, with different pullbacks. i'm sure we'll talk technicals, where you can see the market giving back a substantial portion, five, ten percent but then it will ratchet its way back up because rates are low, and they will continue to be low. i said before that we would be talking about where we're at 177, or 174 in the ten-year. i had said we're going to talk about lower rates sooner than we're going to talk about rates above 2% so i think that in a nutshell, brian, risk outsets, risk on trading. you could decide whether it's value or whether it's growth, or whether it's both. >> you know, listen, i love me some steve grasso, nadine, but ai i'll pus

abigail: starting out with jay powell. fed chair jay powell hosting a town hall for educators.ome investors and traders looking for clues on will there be talks about tapering. if you look at this chart of the fed's balance sheet, are the pandemic crisis and into present day, $8.3 trillion, a steep uptrend and then a slow uptrend. very likely -- very unlikely that trend will be breaking. we will be watching. retail sales, the actual number is 11.3% good i believe that was the number back in march, were recently dipping. the forecast for the month of july calling for a dip, down .2%. it will be interesting to see if that happens this will be a strong talent in terms of the delta variant. is it causing people not to shop? we will watch numbers tomorrow. a big week for retail earnings. tomorrow, walmart and home depot and then on wednesday, target and lowe's and t.j. maxx. and then his questionnaire he spending. it is going to be interesting to see the numbers out of these reports. will fed chair jay powell be talking about the delta variant and what it is doing to the economy at

what does chair powell do to communicate this at jackson hole?inue to see more economies around the world start to move, and perhaps they have no other choice. his ilk, for example, we got inflation numbers this morning -- brazil, for example, we got inflation numbers this morning, and they are overshooting expectations at 9.3%, way above what they wanted. the mid-august number for cpi is the highest since 2002. political tensions also adding to the dynamic there. haidi: yes, and we will continue to watch the markets. the won with a big recovery. the currency trading at a lowest level in about a year. there were worries that the currency would be too much of a big thing. we are seeing that recovery. but a lot more analysis as to the policy path forward for the be ok. a divided decision, but going with the decision to hike. ♪ haidi: show me -- jami is buying -- xiaomi is looking to buy deepmotion. revenue beat estimates, jumping to $13.6 billion. xiaomi says the venture could shorten the time to markets for its first path. it has pledged an initia

shery: the countdown clock is on for the fed chair jay powell's big jackson hole speech on friday. kathleen hays is here with us. what is in focus now? kathleen: one of the most read stories today on the bloomberg terminal was talking about how it is not so much now what powell's signals about when the taper will start, it is as much or more about when it will end. that this chart -- look at this chart. the great financial crisis started in 2014 after the last taper tantrum and lasted two years. but that was a different recovery, long and slow. we're having a post-pandemic rapid recovery so far. but the risk is you move too quickly or too slowly. what does jay powell say about that? today we are going to take a close look at the bank of korea decision. it is all about that versus debt -- about debt versus delta. shery: very catchy. haidi: kathleen hays there. we continue to watch from any kind of tapering signal, the rhetoric from jay powell going into jackson hole. how are markets setting up for this? shery: want to focus on emerging markets because e.m. currencies found support o

announcer: federal reserve chair jerome powell discusses the current state of the u.s.conomy amid the coronavirus pandemic. his remarks were part of the jackson hole economic symposium hosted by the federal reserve bank of kansas city. this is about 20 minutes. hello, i am esther george, president of the federal reserve bank kansas city. each year since 1982, the kansas city fed has been honored to welcome central bankers, policymakers and others to jackson hole, wyoming for our economic always eat symposium. by hosting and -- atu

chair powell will be speaking on friday. >> absolutely. we are watching for any signal that does bookend what will be a very busy week for central banks anyway with the bank of korea second in line after we had a clear indication last week at the delta variant could really derail the path of monetary policy. as always, we will be watching the elements in china, not just the regulatory overhauls that continues, the geopolitical issues at play here. without that and to sanctions law. >> not to mention the chinese regulatory crackdown that we continue to watch. market pricing and what will happen to emerging market equities and other assets. surprisingly, we continue to see this bullish bet coming from the likes of goldman sachs. this is over two decades or so. it has been underperforming the s&p 500 since 2010. now there are expectations that this cheap valuation will lead to some gains on emerging markets. some of the favorites liking taiwan because of the very heavy weighting toward tech. >> we are continuing to watch the impact of the del

if you look at the contenders, with a be just as dovish as chair powell? the fed has put in place a policy to be dovish and jay powell is sticking to that policy. everybody else who comes in, rates are at zero, more going into qe than the economy needs, they do not get anything about that. it is more let's nominate a democrat instead of jay powell who is nominally a republican. it is not a taper tantrum, it is more of a we do not know what will happen uncertainty tame from going forward, and you might see a reaction in the market. francine: there you go. a tantrum. michael mckee. we will have special coverage of the jackson hole meeting right here on bloomberg tv. joining us for more on all of this is aditya bhave, bank of america securities global economist. he changed his base case for the start of taper. bank of america now expects the fed to start tapering in november 2021 versus its prior expectations of january 2022. thank you for joining us. do we get alerted to a taper started earlier than expected at jackson hole? aditya: good morning. given the t

powell speech. the greenback has weakened again. u.s. 10 year yield currently at 130 on the back of those comments. fed chair jerome powell, the dovish stance at jackson hole, giving investors a list to start the week. we spoke to a host of fed presidents on the timeline of the tapering. >> we put the statement about what it would begin -- take for us to begin tapering and i think we are pretty much there. >> we have a fair amount of energy and momentum and i think we can do our tapering faster. >> phase out the purchases and gives ourselves breathing room. >> keep it simple, student. start the process and get it over with. >> it may give us more flexibility down the road. >> the timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases is not carried -- intended to carry a signal in terms of interest rate lift off, for which we have articulated a different and more substantially stringent test. tom: as i mentioned, attention turns to the august jobs. joining us is our guest, global head of research. thank you for joining us this morning. we have some clarity on the sequencing but still questions remain on

powell was dovish >>> and bonds, a bit lower following the remarks. ten-year yielding just around 1.31% that is a dovish interpretation of fed chair jay powell we'll be you have the best pizza in town and the worst wait times. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire >>> higher across the board, near session highs, s&p is up almost a percent 1.5% for the s&p, almost 3% for the nasdaq this week, and more that 5% for the small caps when we come back, china could be proposing new rules that would make it harder for tech companies to go public in the u.s. we'll break down the details with gary dvorchak we'll be right back. [wrestling bell rings] [music: “you're the best” by joe esposito] ♪ try to be best 'cause you're only a man ♪ ♪ and a man's gotta learn to take it ♪ ♪ try to believe though the going gets rough ♪ ♪ that you gotta hang tough to make it ♪ ♪ you're the best! around! ♪ ♪ nothing's gonna ever keep you down ♪ [triumphantly yells] ♪ you're the best! around! ♪ [ding] don't get mad. get e*trade and take charge of your finances

we will get a preview in terms of the fed chair jay powell.own to their virtual jackson hole event this week. this is bloomberg. ♪ and there you have it- woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet, i get that too and mine has 5g included. that's cool, but ours save us serious clam-aroonies. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself. so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's golo.com. ♪ >> this is daybreak, i'm vonnie quinn with the first word h

but the fed chose to keep interest rates at zero with federal chair powell knowing -- noting that thisdue to a large and rapid shift in demand and that the fed has the tools to deal with more persistent inflation. chair powell also noted that some price increases such as lumber and used cars are due to temporary shocks. looking at the prices of lumber yesterday, he may be right. looking at inflation this year, how much can we attribute that to short-term demand surges and transitory conditions, one, and two, how is the administration thinking about inflation as it relates to the economic recovery and our infrastructure investment? secretary yellen: we have looked very carefully at price movements and at recent inflation, trying to understand what is driving them, and i agree with the general comments that chair powell made yesterday about transitory factors. reopening an economy that was largely shut and has seen huge shifts in demand away from services towards goods, now back to services, and suffering a number of bottlenecks, a shortage of semiconductors affecting the car industry, l

chair powell's dated we are still a ways away from full employment. so we would take more than one good payrolls report in order -- in order to really move the fed. that said, i do think that as we start to see stronger data come out over the next couple of months and the data remains strong, i do think yields at these levels seem to rich and will likely see a little bit of a selloff from here closer to the 1.5% which is still about 30 basis points higher from current yield levels. rishaad: there has been a robust recovery and has perhaps been reflected in good news and bad news in some regards. we look at the scale market lies and what's going to go on the physical side with this infrastructure bill wraps coming to fruition at some point, how much does it change the game in terms of asset selection? erin: i think it does change the game in terms of asset selection. we have been under invested in the u.s. for over a decade. this has been one of the challenges, which has been government led infrastructure. we know that the government led infrastructure

is it the potential for a more hawkish fed chair powell, or perhaps someone who raises higher expectedon, down the line. -- down the line? quest i think powell is going to try not to make waves. it is clear that the intellectual gravity is moving towards announcing a taper this year. it is probably commencing before the year end, provided the labor market holds up. this will all be data-dependent. it will not dramatically throw the recovery off course. we may end up waiting longer. suggesting that we are still in pretty good shape, i think what powell will end at is what we already know, that a taper will be announced by the fall. >> but high-frequency data points are you paying the most attention to? >> aside from claims that have come out, i am really watching the anatomy of this bond market. as yields move up and down, we are watching what is driving that. you also have the estimated, and against that foliage, what is happening in the metals market. we need to be on the work -- look out for, you have inflation expectations crashing. that would not be what we want to see. so far, tha

i think fed chair powell wants to see the data and be reassured that it's transitory in nature and notething he needs to react too quickly because he wants to wait until the beginning of next year and first rate increase at the beginning of 23. charles: you're on record for saying you don't think the fed will take immediate action. every time i see you say that, the audience is like that sacrilegious but the feds got 39% is 2019, currently about 21% of gross fisa why is it hard for people to believe they can follow the path of the bank of japan they fought over half their debt in 37% of monthly supply. were not necessarily going to have to go down there but why is it a viable path for this federal reserve? >> it might be. if we are going to tack on potentially quarterly and spending from the treasury market, they will have no choice to buy the extra treasury security. the problem i have, i've argued for many years the fed would take an emergency level when the emergency has largely passed but we have to forecast what they will do. basically buying assets keeping rates at zero they push