chair powell: sure. it is essential that we work for all americans, and it is essential that we do that without regard to political considerations like election cycles or particular political parties, views on issues that are outside our mandate. we have to focus on the job congress has given us, which is maximum employment and price stability, and also the payment system, financial stability, and other things. that is what we need to do to justify our continued independence, and we are committed to doing that. sen. tester: thank you. sen. brown: senator reynolds from south dakota is recognized -- senator rounds from south dakota is organized. sen. rounds: thank you. i look forward to supporting your nomination. i want to follow up a little bit with regards to the discussion on inflation. consumer price index rose 6.8% in november. there appears to be a consistency along that line. part of that, you have the opportunity to impact with regard to the demand side. can you talk to us about your discussions,

chair powell: thank you. did not bring any family or friends here today, in light of the limited seating circumstances, but i will mention them in my testimony. thank you. chairman brown, ranking member to me, and other numbers of the committee, thank you for the opportunity to appear before you today. i would like to thank president biden for nominating me to serve a second term as chair of the board of governors of the federal reserve system. i would also like to thank my colleagues throughout the federal reserve for their dedication, perseverance, and tireless work on behalf of the american people. their commitment and expertise were essential to the fed's response to the covid-19 crisis and remain vital to the limitation of monetary policy as our economy continues to progress. particular thanks go to my wife and our three children. their love and support make possible everything i do. my five siblings are all watching, or will later claim to have watched. [laughter] we are thinking of each other and of ou

. >> thanks michelle and thank you chair powell. it is expected that the fed will hike rates every other meeting, but in the past, the fed has hike. every meeting. i want to ask are there rate hikes at the executive meeting on the table. is it a live meeting and on that note, will the fed consider front loading of its rate hikes, even if it does not raise every meeting? >> as i referred to in my opening statement, it is not possible to predict with much confidence exactly what half of our policy rate is going to prove appropriate. at this time, we have not made any decisions about the past policy -- two-sided risks now. we are going to be guided by the data. we are going to be led by the incoming data and the evolving outlook. we will try to communicate as clearly as possible, moving steadily and transparently. more to your question, we know the economy is in a very different place than it was when we began raising rates in 2015. specifically, the economy is now much stronger, the labor market is far stronger, the inflation rate is

thank you, chair powell.ected that the fed will hike rates perhaps every other meeting. but certainly in the past the fed has hiked at every meeting so i wanted to ask are rate hikes at consecutive meetings this year on the table is every meeting a live meeting? will the fed consider front loading some rate hikes even if it doesn't raise every meeting >> thank you. >> thank you as i referred to it is not possible to predict with confidence exactly what path is appropriate. and so at this time we haven't made any decisions about the path of policy and i stress again that we'll be humble and nimble we will have to navigate cross currents and two-sided risks now and i'll say also to be guided by the data. i'll say that we'll be led by the incoming data and evolves outlook. we'll try to communicate as clearly as possible. moving moving transparentally we know that the economy is in a very different place than 2015 the economy is now much stronger the labor market is far stronger inflation is well above 2% target

welcome to the committee again, chair powell. it was as always good to talk with you yesterday. i want to just say, mr. chair, i think that together chair powell and it will brainard would make a great team at the fed. i think you are a strong combination. chair powell, i would like to ask you about where we are with employment and how this relates to the decisions at the fed. last week the bureau of labor statistics released job numbers from december. as you know well. thanks to the american rescue plan, i would also say the hard work and grit and innovation of americans, the unemployment rate has dropped to just 3.9%, which is really remarkable and historic recovery from the beginning of the pandemic. i note that in my home state of minnesota in november the unemployment rate was even lower. this is really an incredible accomplishment. you and i discussed this before. how it is useful to unbundle these aggregate numbers so we understand a little bit more about what's happening. we understand it's a more complicated story. for example, black workers, amongst black workers the un

to the committee again chair powell, as always it was good to talk with you yesterday, and i want to just say mr. chair, that i think that together chair powell and leo brainard will make a great team at the fed, and i think you're a strong combination so mr. -- chair powell, i'd like to ask you where we are with employment and how this relates to the decisions that the fed -- the fed is making. last week the bureau of labor statistics released job numbers in december as you know well and thanks to the american rescue plan and i would also say the hard work and grit and innovation of americans the unemployment rate has dropped to just 3.9% which is a remarkable and historic recovery from the beginning of the pandemic. i note that in my home state of minnesota in november the unemployment rate was even lower. so this is really an incredible accomplishment, and you and i have discussed this before how it is useful to unbundle, though, these aggregate numbers so that we understand a little bit more about what's happening. we understand that it's a more complicated story. for example, bl

thank you, i look forward to your comments. >> thank you chair powell. many working americans are concerned about rising prices pretty think president biden's decision to renominate you to a second term as chair shows he is confident you will continue to lead our economy to this ongoing crisis. in november you indicated the rise of the omicron variant, five at a 6000 new cases daily over the last week, the rise of the omicron variant pose significant risk to employment and economic activity. do you agree higher prices are related to the supply and demand imbalances that can be traced directly back to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy? >> yes, i do. for the most part, if you look back you can traced to developments including strong demand and also supply constraints. >> thank you. last year released its report on climate related financial risk which describes how climate change is a threat to our financial stability in the past you said your words, climate changes and emerging risk to financial institutions the financial system and the economy"

dow and s&p closing in the red nasdaq barely positive this on the back of fed chair powell hinting interestkes could come soon at march fir increase since december 2018 and joining me, mohamed el-erian great to see you before we get to what jay powell said or didn't say, did this week's market performance make you think that that dip sentiment is still very much alive and well and today did the reverse, your view on that as well. >> told me two things. one is positivity is here and will stay. three reasons for that in growing importance, one is a more fluid economic outlook. two is geopolitical tension, but most importantly, the markets recognize that the liquidity regime is changing, but they're not clear on how it's changing so that's going to lead to a lot of volatility. two, the second thing he told us is, yes, it is still there, but not overwhelming like it used to be so we're getting bigger swings, and lasting for longer i suspect that's what we're going to see for a while. >> in terms of the market reaction to jay powell today, i guess you got a clear, a clear glimpse they would like

fighting inflation the fed chair powell says the central bank could raise rates more than projected if needed. how do you invest asthis easy money era fades away we've got two power players this hour the ceo of cigna is with us. we'll get his take on covering at-home tests and the company's big push into telehealth benefits and the ceo of akamai one of the most interesting companies of the internet era, one of the company's most just companies by just capital in partnership with ceo we'll talk with the ceo about job creation and responsible corporate behavior kelly. >> thank you hi, everybody. take a look at these markets a big turn around for the nasdaq since yesterday. it's up one and a quarter percent. well off the sort of 14,000 we say 7,000 level. s&p higher by 29 dow up by 95 around session peaks there even though it's the underperformer some with the chip sector, which had a bad start to the year, but trying to stage a turnaround and the yield perhaps underpinning this change in sentiment, it's in the red today around 1.75% >> we begin this hour with the fed. chair powell on cap

thank you chair powell.o the expected that the fed will hike rates perhaps every other meeting but certainly in the past the fed has hiked at every meeting. i just wanted to ask rate hikes at consecutive meetings on the table this year? is every meeting a live meeting? and on that note, would the fed consider front-loading some of its rate hikes even if it doesn't raise every meeting? thank you. >> thanks. so as i referred to in my opening statement it is not possible to predict with much confidence exactly what path our policy rate is going to prove to be appropriate so at this time we haven't made any decisions about the path of policy. i stress again that we'll be humble and nimble. we're going to have to navigate crosscurrents and actually sided risks -- i will say, also that we're going to be guided by the data. in fact what i will say is we'll be led by the incoming data and the evolving outlook. we'll try to communicate as clearly as possibly moving steadily as transparency, transparently. more to you

the chair powell, thank you for being here.oned in your opening statement you committed to regular and frequent contact and i can attest to the fact you've contacted my office anytime we've had a request for a conversation you've been very prompt so i appreciate your responsiveness and want to talk a little bit about the extraordinary inflationary pressures and the tools the fed has to deal with it. of course you could have a benchmark rate increase. we know what that would have as a consequence for raising the price and ultimately affecting the cost of buying a car or house or just making ends meet, your other option is to reduce the balance sheet particularly from some of the bond buying programs. i believe that it was governor waller who just last month said that because of the alarming rate of inflation the fed should begin shrinking the asset portfolio without delay and i think this week the fed president from atlanta said he thinks the fed should aggressively draw down the balance sheet by at least 100 billion a month. i

let's get to washington next where fed chair powell testified today as part of the process ylan muoyas the highlighted. >> the fed is primed the market for rate hikes next year today chair powell tried to do the same for congress saying inflation is further away from the goal than employment and committed to using the central bank tools to ensure that prices remain stable. he told lawmakers 2022 will be the year lift the foot off the gas pedal. >> the economy no longer wants need or the policies in place to deal with the pandemic and the aftermath. that's what that is about. we are moving over the course of this year to a policy that is closer to normal but it's a long road to normal from where we are. >> powell brought up the possibility to shrink the fed policy sheet by the end of the year and touched on crypto saying the fed's report will be out in a couple of weeks and climate change there he said the fed's role would be contained to how it affects financial stability. back to you. >> thank you so much for more on chair powell's testify let's bring in jeff carpenter at morgan sta

chair jay powell first saying it may begin raising interest rates in march, but just moments ago backing off, affirming that, saying "we're watching the data" let's go back to the press conference. >> it's just we have to accept that it's not over and the risks to it can slow down growth, and that be , that's sort of a down side risk from a growth standpoint. i would point to another risk is just further problems in the supply chains, which could slow down activity and you see the situation in china as the situation there where that's, their no covid policy may cause more lockdowns, is likely to and that may play into more problems in supply chains. in addition, there's what's going on in eastern europe and things like that so there's plenty of risk out there, and we can't forget that there are risk s on both sides so that's there. that's what i would say. i know you've been all over this issue with my colleagues, craig, on the issue of information. we don't have that information at the board and i asked the inspector general to do an investigation and that is out of my hands. i am playi

so we're very focused on that, as chair powell said. with regard to the issues surrounding climate, we don't do environmental policy at the federal reserve. it's not our expertise. what we do have responsibility for is that supervisory agencies are planning and we do sort of have a responsibility of understanding implications of a host of different kinds of things, and that's where scenario analysis comes in. it turned out the pandemic had enormous financial consequences, so it's on us to do research to understand how shocks could affect our financial system, and that could include severe weather events and other aspects. >> speaking of shocks, i think we all remember the war of yom kippur. some of us are old enough to remember what happened in 1973 and the shock that had when oil prices quadrupled. in 1981, it was 18.64% of wages. it was devastating for the folks working hard every day to make ends meet. speaking of politically motivated, with my distinguished colleague mark dakota sitting next to me, when we watched this president wit

that, but the difference is that powell has already been confirmed, he had a full turn, and brainard is a governor but has not held a position as high as the vice chair role. she might be questioned more on other things like climate change, employment, and other things about her history on the fed, whereas members of the senate are more comfortable with powell's history. romaine: we are keeping an eye on that hearing tomorrow, olivia giving us a preview. a lot of discussions will be had on inflation coming off the cpi print this morning. we will get a ppi number later, in a few hours. we will dive deeper into that the rest of the half-hour. we want to talk about it from the housing perspective. a senior housing economist at apartment list is with this, chris, i want to start with the rental and shelter numbers we saw, specifically in the cpi data, which most people seem to say under represents the real increases folks have seen on the ground. what are you seeing? chris: in the cpi relief today, what we saw was an increase of 4.1% year-over-year in the shelter component, and that is, you know, obviously quite a bit lower than what we were reporting in

i think having raskin and jefferson along with chair powell and vice chair would be helpful.omaine: i have a broader question about economics in general and the way you view the world through your research. we talk a lot about diversity of thought and i remember when mary daly was elevated to be a bank president. there was a lot of talk about her background, basically a high school dropout and got a wealth of personal experience to what was ultimately her own professional experience as well as her academic experience. that shaped her research and studying the labor market and she has been very vocal as san francisco fed president to talk about these issues from that perspective. is that necessary as economists when you're are supposed to be data driven? andrew: i think it is absolutely critical. just as an example, i think in retrospect, the fed itself acknowledges they probably started tightening too quickly in 2015. they were mostly looking at the unemployment rate, which they were thinking at the time that 5% might be at, as low as it could go. it turned out that unemploym

haidi: speaking of big names, fed chair powell had things to say about crypto as well.his testimony, he didn't address whether stable coins, privately issued stable coins could exist alongside possible central-bank digital currency. he seems to indicate yes, that was a possibility. all conjecture at this point because the fed is preparing a formal report on cryptocurrencies and digital issues in the coming weeks and it likely address the big question of whether the fed will issue its own digital coin and whether it will allow for stable coins, which many consider important because big -- bitcoin and crypto investors use stable coins as a form of transaction to buy and sell other coins, whether those can coexist. previously, the fed has said they need a lot of regulation. you're looking at the big double hump in bitcoin over the last two years. you looking at a brand-new grayscale index which looks at the fo f. the future of finance. a lot of stocks and other crypto related assets that rise and fall with though, you can see it as bouncing back a little bit there as well.

> chair powell -- >> chair powell -- >>'s hearing -- >> what he will be talking about -- >> i'm lookinge has to say. >> the fed is in a tough spot. >> they have a significant inflation problem on their hand. >> we are now looking at a seven handle. >> on the one hand, they want to appease financial markets. , on the other hand, you have the public upset about inflation. >> it has become political problem number one for

chair powell decided to go more hawkish. it is becoming a running trick. has been surprising. at this point, jp morgan forecasting four rate hikes, which jay powell confirmed. like him, we are keeping an open mind, in terms of how the policy might change in light of incoming information. paul: asian central banks with the exception of china industry, looking to move down the tightening path a little more. where do you go? >> by reaching globally, it is the place to be. you look at the three things that are favorable this year, the value is doing well. this is something we continue to do well. the second thing is it is turning around. the third thing is the dollar is probably not going to strengthen a lot as we saw last year. those three things together, the asian region looks attractive from a global perspective. if you follow the quality, china is the place to be. the market preference framework, china was upgraded earlier this month, which i think was a timely call. on the other hand, we downgraded to the markets that were consistent until last year, kore

investors are shrugging off comments from fed chair jay powell on tuesday. he testified on the hill that high inflation poses a threat to the american job market. >> to get the kind of very strong labor market we want with high participation, it will take a long expansion participation is moving slowly to get a long expansion we'll need price stability in a way, high inflation is a severe threat to the achievement of maximum employment and achieving a long expansion that could give us that >> but all of this, should it impact how you think about the markets and investing? joining us now is cic wealth executive vice president, malcolm etheridge who brought along a few stock picks. good morning welcome back first, a lot of talk about inflation. that cpi number could come in red hot today, nearly 7% that's extreme does that change the macro way in which you think about the markets? >> so, what's interesting about the comments by chair powell and also that 7.1 number we're talking about is we were just looking at the end of 2021, something like 4 million or so e

fed chair jay powell has just wrapped up the senate confirmation hearing to be fed chair for a seconderm. we will bring you full reaction from the event. jamie dimon has a warning for unvaccinated staff. we will not pay you to work from home. the latest on wall street's return to office. bitcoin at $100,000? why something to offend will not follow through with hiking rates, and how that is a boon for crypto. let's get a quick check on what is going on in the markets. a bit of a rebound on the s&p 500, .4%. yesterday, we breached through 1.80 for the first time since before the pandemic. the dollar index has not moved much as we see rates climbing. right now at 1173. we were closer to 1190 four the highs. nymex screwed up 4%. expects from jay powell. let's talk about that confirmation testimony on capitol hill. listen to what jay powell had to say. chair powell: we and all other forecasters forecast that we would be seeing lower inflation. the economy no longer needs or wants the highly accommodative policies we have had in place to deal with the pandemic and aftermath. we will be norm

federal reserve chair j. powell he seeks the second term of the head of the u.s. bank. we will talk about the feds, markets and a brand-new list of americas just companies with investor paul tudor jones. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now >>> good morning welcome back to cnbc i'm joe kernon with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin as we hurdle through january somehow i don't know what happened don't blink. u.s. equity futures at this hour you can see are up a bit up 47 points or so the nasdaq isthat big turn around that is a significant turn around and we reflect on so many things i haven't been able do reflecting with you guys i think this is my first appearance of the new year it's a time we think about the future, we think about the past and, god, after the last couple of years, i wouldn't even venture a guess what we're looking at >> which dumpster fire this year >> here we are, look at, that's a nice shot of the three of us it's nice to see on twitter. some people they like us, they really like us i

as a chair powell put it on tuesday, they are raising prices because they can. governor p brainard, would you agree increase market concentration allowed some corporations off pandemic disruptions by raising prices on consumersas beyond increased cos the corporations have to deal withth? >> certainly a lot of economic research would suggest in concentrated industries, individual producers have more power so that dynamic is certainly possible. >> okay, so i know the fed has a role in approving bank mergers but with respect to broader concentrations throughout the rest of the economy, does the fed have the tools to deal with increased concentration there? >> no. >> and that's really it here. dealing with inflation requires the fed to act problem is overheated in the economy but dealing with rising consumer prices, also involves ftc, the department of justice and breaking up monopolies and investigating crooked price-fixing schemes but also increase costs for hard-working families and that's why it's so important the biden administration is taking action fight corp

fed chair jay powell's comments yesterday largely priced in. we have both the s&p 500 and the nasdaq 100 down. interestingly, the china tech index up on the year, along with the banks. sort of an interesting pairing. the big driver for all of these indexes, the yield. les took at a year to date yield chart. the 10 year yield, we will see a massive backup of 22 basis points, so a very big move in a short time. over the last couple of days, sort of wondering down, backing off a little bit, giving a little bit of relief around inflation fears, along with valuation concerns for technology. relative to fed chair jay powell's comments, what is more important, rates were balance sheets, obviously they are integrally tied in. in yellow, that is the 10 year yield. in blue we are looking at the fed balance sheet, close to $8.8 trillion. in white, the s&p 500. you can see where the 10 year yield was going much higher last year, it really did not do anything to the s&p 500, just following the balance sheet. the balance sheet is still going higher at this t

jon: chair powell headed to capitol hill. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. what a turnaround in the last 24 hours. on the s&p, up .4%. chairman powell, tom keene, in front of the senate? tom: it will be interesting to see. there are a whole host of things to talk about but maybe they will say thank you to jamie dimons. what he did yesterday, did you see the dot plot chart, the idea of outdoing each other where goldman sachs's four rate rises, we be they will do five. it was jamie dimon to the rescue yesterday to assist jerome powell. jon: i felt sorry for mike rowley yesterday. it came out last week same thing, for hikes, balaji reduction. i have heard it from a few banks, including deutsche bank. tom: it is out there, and floating around, and we are staggering day by day. what matters is is it tomorrow we get cpi data? jon: yeah. tom: that is what matters. we have a look a

. >> fed chair powell has wrapped up his testimony on capitol hill and ylan mui joining us with the headlines hi, scott powell delivered a robust argument to lawmakers why the fed needs to start normalizing its policy stance this year. he spent a lot of time discus discussing the relationship and employment, reining in higher inflation is a way to endure a longer economy that brings all of those missing workers back to the labor force. notably, he said that the economy no longer needs or wants the fed's highly accommodative monetary policies and that 2022 is going to be about getting back to normal now, politically, we did hear several republican senators plan to support his nomination as fed chair. that's going to be important because just this morning we learned that ed markey would plan to move against chair powell's confirmation about how he might tackle risk from financial stability for climate change and that makes four democratic senators who oppose fed chair powell's re-nomination. he'll need this bipartisan support in order to get confirmed and we do expect him to receive it. back ov

we have seen bitcoin making gains throughout the duration of fed chair powell's comments, then fallinginging around 36,000 throughout wednesday's session. is it an inflation hedge? intel, the chipmaker in the news a lot, off, and it seems data center customers are not spending on ships. -- chips. that is the main takeaway. intel is investment mode and investors seem worried about the outlook for profit. tesla is the one we have been waiting for, strong performance in the fourth quarter, beat on the top and bottom lines, strong deliveries, outdoing themselves with gross margin and you read down the shareholder debt. what is not there? the 2022 outlook. they are hit by supply chain constraints which they say have depressed volumes in the shanghai and fremont plants, but what happens when austin and berlin come online? we don't have a number of cars coming out of those factories this year, and what is the profitability of the company in 2020 this year? emily: let's get that are picture of the picture and bring in steve westly of the wesley group and a former tesla board member. steve, goo

fed chair jay powell. dani: and later, stay tuned for interview on the deutsche bank results with the cfo at 6:30 a.m. london time. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the notion of a 50 basis point rate hike is highly unlikely. manus: the former u.s. fed -- new york fed president there. our top story, fed chair jerome powell thinking march rates may rise. he open the door for faster and more aggressive rate hikes. the markets have had quite a dramatic reaction. bond yields are climbing, the dollar is rallying this morning. the risk off narrative continues. when you look at three standard deviation moves, the curves are flattening. how hawkish a pivot was it in your mind, the fact that he has opened pandora's box to the risk of a rate hike at every meeting this year? is that a risk too far? >> yesterday definitely opened up further risk in terms of previously expecting quarterly rate hikes in march but now there is further risk. on the one hand, with the fact that they want to normalize policy, and economy that does n

fed not expected to make a move at this meeting, but what chair powell says or doesn't say will be a big driver of where the markets go from here plus, looking for opportunity amid the chaos chip stocks getting crushed today, this week, this year. so is this your chance to buy nvidia or amd at, kelly, a big discount >> thank you, tyler. hi, everybody. take a look at this board behind me a moment ago, the dow was down 17 points so we are within .005 of a percent the nasdaq still down 1.5%, but it was down about 3% earlier on. technicians say the key level to watch is yesterday's intraday low. 4222 we're 150 points above that now with today's declines. as for individual movers, ge, worst performer today. supply chain problems hurting he revenue. another poor earnings report and we're seeing the stock reaction down off the lows. still down about 6%. the chips are trading poorly again today. nvidia and amd, down more than 20% this year. we begin with the big event happening in 23 hours and about 58 minutes on this program the fed decision on rates followed by chair powell's press confere

you want flexibility chair powell and the q&a can rely on every meeting.t they are telling us at this meeting is we will start hiking in march we don't know how many and we don't know when. >> and there is, ellen, a lot of talk of a more hawkish fed some say four rate hikes some say eight or nine whatever it may be here is what i have not heard anybody talk about national debt. when interest rates go up, it costs more for the u.s. government, i.e., taxpayers, to pay those interest payments. we have never had debt like this we added trillions in debt since the last rate hike cycle in 2018 is there a level of hawkishness they can get to if they want to get more aggressive, ellen, because the u.s. government could never pay the debt >> a good question, brian. i get that question quite often. the way i view it, the higher the debt as a share of the economy, the lower the neutral rate in the u.s. so what that means is, it doesn't mean the fed can't raise rates. it means every 25 basis point hike they deliver is that much more impactful so it argues for a gradua

fed chair powell getting questions on the inflation. he can adjust is on forecast by a few tenths of a percent. a strong rebound in semiconductor space paired philadelphia semiconductor index up on wednesday. a strong game. broadly speaking, cryptocurrency is higher. i went to get straight to bitcoin and look at the action over the last five days. we are down at 33,000 u.s. dollars per token. what is bitcoin? we have seen bitcoin making gains throughout the duration of fed chair powell's comments. then falling away back below 37,000 u.s. dollars. swinging between 39000 and 37,000. is it an inflation hedge? straight to the aftermarket earnings. this is the point that matters. intel. the chipmaker in the news a lot. bottom line is it seems that data center customers are not spending on chips. we know that intel is in investment mode. investors seem to about the outlook for profit. we have to talk about tesla. this is the one we have been waiting for peered really strong performance. we know they have strong delivery. they'll outdo themsel

but when you hear chair powell, he sounds pretty calm. thank goodness. think that the politics of it are quite the reverse of what we were feeling before. president biden yesterday basically opened the door to let the fed, basically blessed the fed doing what they need to do, calibrating how they need to calibrate, and leaving the judgment call up to them and not hammering or badgering them from his bully pulpit. that is a big change. i think that removes pressure from powell and the fomc to do what they think is best. one way or another, that is always how they have operated, but there is less political pressure on them from this administration and they are leaving the judgment up to the fed and the fed is going to make the best judgment they can. jonathan: thank you. julia coronado of macropolicy perspectives. i think that emphasizes how much we do not know about the federal reserve and how far they can take this. lisa: honestly this idea that they are going to bring down inflation one way or another and either they are going to do it in a controlled m

the bull is that chair powell ends up walking back some of that while we still get growth .case is higher inflation continues, as well as some concerns about how long this can last as u.s. consumers tap into their savings. what is the differential and equity performance for those two scenarios? anna: for us come our price target is 4715. that is not an overly aggressive fed. but if you see chairman powell really wrestling with inflation and grabbing inflation by the horns, but having a difficult time camping down on that. you could see much further weakness. you should see higher volatility, more spikes. that is the kind of environment where we would look to revise down, but so far, i think that is still a tail case scenario for us. jonathan: you came in the year looking for a flat market, and 4700 was not the most bullish call. it feels more bullish now as the year progresses. great work as always. anna han of wells fargo securities. rolling over a bit, down 0.75% on the nasdaq 100, down about 1% on the s&p. some underperformance in europe. the stoxx 600 not doing so well.

what is the messaging of chair powell today? who is he speaking for?marie: i think he's going to be speaking for the entire fed. we are still waiting for what the fed is exactly going to look like. we are still waiting on three nominations from the white house before the end of 2021. he's going to be speaking for the entire fed, and the fact that they have this track of a dual mandate. they want to make sure they have maximum employment. at the same time, at this moment, they have said time and time again that inflation was transitory. it does not look like it is going to be that transitory, so he is going to have to come up with an answer and what they plan to do to really temper higher costs that everyday consumers are feeling and that politicians have been asking questions about time and time again. lisa: perhaps jay powell will give some indications on some of the key questions markets are wondering. from a political standpoint, how much do you expect to learn with respect to the fiscal support, the fiscal stimulus that was on the table as of the e

- you never want to say the market gets it wrong but we are -- we've experienced the fomc, and chair powellng hawkish but acting more dovish the market has already established that they will stop asset purchases, they will raise rates and they'll let the balance sheet run off. that's not all happening all at once and i think that's what they factored in i think the sell side banks are tripping over themselves saying there will be four, five, six, seven hikes. they're trying to outdo themselves i think this is a great set up for the market it's pulled back chair powell has confidence in the economy. is seeing through omicron. and i don't think this going to be as bad as people think. look at the front end of the curve, like tim said, if he talks more dovish what happens the front end comes down and then the back end will steepen because they won't be afraid that he's going to over step and create a recession eem, emerging markets will do better, value will do better, banks will do better, end of story. i think he has to get off the hawkish bandwagon just a bit for markets to start to perform

how they get there i think is unclear and i'm looking forward to next week and seeing how chair powell does it and how policy is going to be and how quickly they feel like they have to bring the economy and bring inflation back down again. >> a time for reflection we're throwing on the mamas and the papas and sitting down and reflecting, looking out the window and think about the equity, rick i mean, the market is assuming that you're getting four hikes and qt, and we can show the probabilities there at content highs. do you believe what you see in the chart? are you also expecting that to play out that way? >> i think that's about right. listen, i think rates and the 10-year is going to 2% and i think it's what you said earlier and get help with these markets are and you can see that i think the 10-year will go to low twos and you think about where we come from and i still think the earnings will be good this year and you'll hit what could be 12 to 15% earnings growth you lift the discount rate a little bit and i have to recalibrate to a discount rate, and can you have reasonable retu

if you listen to chair powell's statements, he did not deliberately commit to any preset path of rate hikes. what we know is that they will hike rates at the march meeting, but beyond that, it will depend on the data. we know that inflation is what higher than the projections in december, but they feel the labor market is strong enough to be able to withstand a more aggressive path of rate hikes. that said, the market is not really willing to look at the longer-term and say the fed is going to be able to orchestrate a prolonged period of expansion. the terminal fed funds rate did not budge at all. the market priced in five hikes for this year. i think the fed will be very cognizant of that because that is ultimately what decides how long the expansion lasts. jonathan: you talk about the strength of this economy, the strength of this labor market compared to 2019. this is what he had to say. >> i think there is quite a bit of room to raise interest rates without threatening the labor market. this is, by so many measures, and historically tight labor market. jonathan: when did you think

the fed chair powell testifying before the senate as well.ooking at the futures, we are caught flat on the dow and s&p talk the jobs fair the full return to the office is apparently dead to many experts including bloom who is an economist at stan pord who says remote working is only growing and this could be a bend o for . the largest change in working and living conditions since world war ii they are saying remote listings for jobs while those that have remote in the title have 300% more applicants than those that have no remote in the title. >> the way of the world. steve, thank you >>> coming up, januessa is back with a look at the weather >> and bad boy police officer goes far beyond the call of duty of touch-activated scent technology. that lasts, even hours later! that's because febreze touch stores scent in your fabrics so you get bursts of freshness with every touch. your whole world will come alive. welcome home to fresh with febreze touch. la, la, la, la, la some people have joint pain, plus have high blood pressure. they may not be

chair powell: fortunately, health experts are finding that the omicron variant has not been as virulentevious strains of the virus. if the wave passes quickly, the economic effects should as well. lisa: powell noted that unemployment is low overall, arguing the job market can handle a shift from the fed. german powell: i think there is room to raise interest rates -- chairman powell: i think there is room to raise interest rates without risking the labor market. this is by any measure an historically tight labor market. lisa: but the jobs picture is not the same for all americans. unemployment remains high for black americans, at 7.1 percent, versus white americans at 3.2%. that economic conrn is on the frontburner at the white house, where president biden met with corporate ceos to try to revitalize his stalled build back better plan. pres. biden: the build back better plan lowers prices for families and gets people working. it creates the best educated workforce, hopefully in the world, ensures to remain the most dynamic and productive economy in the world. lisa: meantime, businesses,

when the pandemic struck in 2020, i worked closely alongside chair powell, secretary mnuchin, and manyers with the support of congress to calm financial market turmoil and save american jobs and businesses. when markets stabilized, i worked to responsibly wind down the emergency facilities that were established, and today the economy is making welcome progress. but the pandemic continues to pose challenges. our priority is to protect the gains we have made support the recovery. since 2014, as a member of the federal open market committee, i supported monetary policy that is responsive to economic conditions as the evolve. our approach helped sustain the longest recovery on record, with low inflation and millions of jobs. more broadly, i have worked to safeguard and grow our economy during the administrations of five presidents from both parties. i have worked on the u.s. policy response to every major financial crisis over three decades. in some foreign countries, i have seen up close how high inflation hurts workers and families, especially the most vulnerable. i am committed to pursu

the hawkish signal from the fed is here, taylor laying out market reaction as fed chair jay powell sayshe fed will unwind stimulus. tesla and whirlpool signaling ongoing supply strength and price increases they have to pass on to consumers. investors, fed watches, global policymakers, we are going to hear from john ryding and john taylor in a moment with lift off set for march. romaine: at 2:00, we got a balanced statement out of the fed. at two: no night, our senior editor here said it is up to jay powell now not to mess this up. here's what he had to say. >> the federal open market committee kept its policy interest rate near zero and stated its expectation that an increase in this rate would soon be appropriate. the economy has shown great strength and resilience in the face of the pandemic. we expect inflation to decline over the course of the year. in light of remarkable progress in the labor market, inflation well above our 2% goal, the economy no longer needs sustained, high levels of monetary support. we need to be nimble so that we can respond to the full range of plausible out

if you listen to what chair powell said, that one of his recent congressional testimonies, he revealedhe q3 eci numbers was really a turning point for him. it's what made him reassess the amount of tightness in the labor market. and the underlying pressures -- and where the underlying pressures of inflation were going. we have not seen to win a row since 2004. that's what i would be watching to see if the fed can continue to raise rates, beyond the first four-five, which we expect for this year. jonathan: that was the key data point. not the fact he got a second term. we can come back to that another day. steve says we have seen inflation peak in q1, but until we see that pic, the doves are on the back foot. before we go, i want to finish up with this -- i spoke to someone this morning about the sequence and the timeline compared to the previous decade. the previous cycle. just the runway last time around. they started talking about tapering in 2013. 2015, 2 years later, when the rate hike conversation came. two years after that, we started doing balance sheet reductions -- qt. your th

we will speak with fed chair powell and getting set for a hot inflation report tomorrow. >> all righthank you so much, karen >>> up next, janessa's got your frigid forecast next >>> payday is pennies. a boss's revenge backfires like the splash they create the way they exaggerate the surprises they initiate. otezla. it's a choice you can make. otezla is not an injection or a cream it's a pill that treats differently. for psoriasis, 75% clearer skin is achievable, with reduced redness, thickness, and scaliness of plaques. for psoriatic arthritis, otezla is proven to reduce joint swelling, tenderness, and pain. and the otezla prescribing information has no requirement for routine lab monitoring. don't use if you're allergic to otezla. it may cause severe diarrhea, nausea, or vomiting. risk of depression. don't use if you're allergic to otezla. some people taking otezla reported weight loss. your doctor should monitor your weight and may stop treatment. upper respiratory tract infection and headache may occur. tell your doctor about your medicines and if you're pregnant or planning to be.

people saw chair powell's testimony yesterday.is short term trading, whether you are going short, going long for the short term, et cetera, by people who have influence over policy is something that needs more than just insider trading rules look, we're not painting on a plank van vas here, joe. if you look at insiders at corporations, we have very restrictive rules. in fact, rules that we're looking to enhance right now on when they can and cannot trade short swing profit and the like. people in regulated financial institutions have very restrictive rules on when they can trade and reporting and the like so there is -- there are reference points here, whereas congress goes in this. i thought the way j. powell outlined what the fed is going to come out with in the near term here, it was very sensible. a 45-day period from the time that you choose to make an investment decision until that investment decision is executed. that'swhat i heard that eliminates the idea of a short-term trading particular window so you have to hold those