chair powell: senator daines of montana is recognized. >> thank you. chairman powell, good to have you back here. everybody's talking about inflation. it is raging in my home state of montana. a 40-year high of 7.5% in january. core inflation rose 6%. and we recognize it is both above estimates and above the federal reserve's 2% target. as we take a look at what is going on in europe and russia, as it relates to energy prices, energy independence, national security, we are seeing it is all interconnected. as many countries in europe continue to decommission nuclear power plants and stop investing in traditional energy, have become more dependent on adversaries like russia for energy, and now we are seeing the cost of energy is skyrocketing. sadly, i think this is a sneak peek at the path america is headed down if president biden and, frankly, our colleagues across the aisle, continue to undermine made in america energy. in order to help lower energy costs, help our allies be less reliant on putin and russia, i believe we must unleash american energy in

chair powell: glad to.ery widely among macroeconomists and central bank's around the world, we looked at it as akin to an energy shock and a supply-side stock. the textbook on monetary policy would have you look through that because a supply shock comes and goes, and by the time monetary policy is having its effect, which happens with long and variable lags comedy supply shock is already gone. so we looked at it that way. i think we expected to get relief, particularly going into last fall, we expect it when schools reopened, vaccinations raised, kids back in school, we expected supply of labor to come in, that kind of thing, and it did not happen. but it did not happen because the supply-side constraints did not ease. so it is not like, as a practical matter, what was wrong was not the theory. it was just in reality, the supply-side constraints have been much more durable and persistent than we expected. we knew that we could be wrong, and i think i always thought that we could pivot pretty quickly and cat

chair powell: sure. if you look at -- anyone can pick a fight with any of these, but basically, quits and job openings, quits in particular, and i think as well in some research, the ratio of job openings to job vacancies and wages of course, they tell a story that is really different -- the unemployment rate story at 3.8% is the outlier in a way because we had 3.5 percent unemployment for a long time with very low inflation. the signals coming from that broader set of indicators all say that this is a labor market that is out of balance that really has in excess of demand oversupply. that chart that i showed joe's employment plus vacancies is 5 million jobs higher than the labor force. that's why you are seeing widespread reports of job shortages, surveys in record territory of that nature and of course wages are at 40 year highs. all of those things seems to me point two the labor market. it is a great labor market. we need the labor market to be sustainably tight, meaning has to be tight in a way that

chair powell: i could guess. >> do you want to make a guess? chair powell: yes. >> it is russia. that is why, when president biden held the summit to fight ransomware, russia was not invited. according to one estimate, russia linked actors collected nearly three quarters of all ransomware revenue in the world last year. and hundreds of millions of crypto dollars are collected in moscow in each quarter. as much as half come from illicit wallet addresses. russia is the world expert on moving money outside legal channels. obviously, you do not administer sanctions, but you are an expert on the international financial system. our other countries currently using cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions? north korea? iran? venezuela? chair powell: eight is not something we are responsible for. i read publicly that those things have happened, yes. >> everyone access the answer is yes. cryptocurrencies take the state out of -- take the sting out of sanctions. crypto could undermine our sanctions. the crypto industry is supposed to enforce sanctions as well. let me ask, is the crypto industry

chair powell: how are you? >> i want to sound the alarm and i want you to listen to me and the nation to because i am the chairman of our house agriculture committee. i am very worried about this turmoil in ukraine and russia's violence, illegal, and criminal action that they are taking and the impact that this has on global trade and our own food security. we could very well be on the verge of a hunger crisis all over this world. i want to share with you some research so we can understand what this situation is causing. today, russia alone is producing more than two thirds of the 20 million metric tons of fertilizer used to grow corn and wheat around the world. one country. producing 66% of the fertilizer that is needed. when you combine ukraine and russia, these are the two largest exporters of wheat, corn, and barley, producing a quarter's's of the world wheat in these two countries, making this impact a crisis of soaring magnitude when you have this much and these two countries are warring each other. i wan

chair powell has worked on many regulations during his last five years as chair of the federal reserve. and always his tilt is in the direction of let's deregulate just a little. and it's not sometimes he regulates a little more or sometimes he tightens down or loosens up it's been loosen up, loosen up, loosen up. and it's like a ship you just move it a little bit, and then you move it a little bit more if you keep moving it in the same direction, after a while, you've made a profound change. and that change is one that puts our overall financial system at a risk so i judge his first five years as failing not because we've hit the economic crash that that can cause. but because it has shown a tilt in the direction over and over and over of loosening oversights over our financial institutions. >> let's stick with regulation, and yesterday sara bloom raskin withdrew her nomination to be the vice chair in charge of regulation you supported miss raskin. how do you feel about that withdrawal, number one i assume you're disappointed, and would you like the former head of the consumer protect

c-span 3 is live now with federal reserve chair jerome powell. he's going to testify on the u.s. economy before the house financial services committee. >>> the committee will come to order. without objection, the chair is authorized to declare a recess of the committee at any time. as a reminder to all members, we will conclude today's hearing at 1:00 p.m. members who are unable to ask questions at our july hearing with the chair will be given priority to ask their questions today. and we will return to our normal order of recognition once those members have asked their questions. this hearing is entitled "monetary policy and the state of the economy." i now recognize myself for four minutes to give an opening statement. i want to start by reiterating that i join with president biden and our allies in condemning russia's shameful, premeditated and unprovoked invasion of ukraine. i stand in solidarity with the people of ukraine. chair powell, since the last time you testified in july 2021, the united states economy has continued to boom and our recovery from covid-19 pandemic is st

las vegas sands and wynn up almost 10% >> thank you the fed meets in two weeks and today fed chair powellaid a quarter-point rate hike is a near certainty. >> i think it will be appropriate to raise the rate in a couple weeks and inclined to support a 25-basis point rate hike >> joining is bill lee from milliken good to see you. >> thank you. >> i guess chair powell taken the suspense out of the march meeting saying what will happen but what do you think happens after that how aggressive is the fed likely to be? lessaggressive than it otherwise would have been given oil markets in ukraine >> a lot of professional colleagues calling for the race to the top five to seven hike this is year. i think we agree 2.5% is the rate how fast will we get there now that we saw what happened to the huge oil shock and the data of xwgdp and personal income sug joesing the economy is slowing down fed chair powell said the first couple are in the bag and then have to see exactly how slow the economy is going to be. >> the whole fed, indeed the economy, is in a difficult place. the more you raise interest ra

let's go to neil irwin >> hi, chair powell. it's neil irwin at axios thank you.n the projections we see a forecast of 1.9%, 2.8. wondered if that aligns with your own expectations and the point to overshoot the long term neutral rate and also anything how that might be paced, front loaded, back loaded? >> so i don't -- neil, i have never talked about my own projection it is in there but i think fed chairs have generally not done that because we haven't done it and we have to put together the consensus on the committee and present that consensus so i wouldn't talk about my individual one and in terms of the pacing of it i point out that that is -- seven remaining meetings this year not something we discuss or debate or agree on i would add there's also the shrinkage of the balance sheet and people do the math different ways and might be another rate increase just from the runoff of the balance sheet. so i don't -- i don't know -- we haven't made any decisions on front end loading or going steadily through the year. thro. as i mentioned, if you look at the sep, i c

chair powell temporary powell, since the last time you testified in july, 2021, the united states economyas continued to recover from covid-19, the pandemic, is strong. the biden administration beginning in january of 2021, our economy added over 7 million jobs, a record in the first year of a new presidency. in addition, wages and salaries for workers group by 4.5% in 2021, the highest level in close to 40 years. while these are encouraging figures, we have more work ahead. families across the nation are facing higher prices because of inflation, created not only by pandemic related supply chain problems, but also corporations taking advantage of economic conditions to pass on higher prices to consumers. importantly, housing is a key measure. and a driver of inflation. for too long, we have not addressed the shortfall in our housing supply. this lack of supply is driving up prices. in 2021, the national median rent for an apartment jumped by almost 18%. home prices rose by 17%. these are the true drivers of inflation according to experts, despite repeated efforts from the part of publica

so, let me ask, chair powell, is the crypto industry enforcing sanctions right now? >> so, what i have read -- again, this is really for the treasury department, but i've read the same things that you have and you had in your letter that some reluctance expressed on the part of the crypto industry to do that. >> all right they are supposed to, but the problem is they haven't been doing a very good job. just read the treasury department sanctions review or the u.n. reports on sanctions compliance we know that many crypto exchanges and wallets are not collecting information about the identities of their customers, are not screening their platforms for illicit activity and are not reporting sanctions violations heck, this is how north korea has been able to move money around and finance its illegal missile programs here is the thing, the whole point of crypto is that it allows someone to conduct financial transactions without having to go through the traditional banking system or traditional financial intermediaries right now millions of transactions are taking place th

so we're now expecting also chair powell's second term as chair to be advanced by the panel.dline for $117 million coupon payments for russia closed on wednesday with no sign that debt holders received their cash. sonali basak joins us now. so what does this mean? sonali: it is really interesting that we know if russia default on this debt payment, then this is the first time they would do such a thing on a foreign debt in over 100 years. remember, the last time we saw this was in 1998 was with the ruble debt restructuring, but it was a different time back then. and that really did help russia restructure. this time around we have heard a lot of bondholders are trying to sell. remember, even with not having payments from the clearinghouses, the bankers, and from russia itself, they still have a 30 day grace period to figure it out. so that is the next couple of weeks for a lot of uncertainty. the russian finance minister has also told a local paper that they have communicated with their bank and u.s. banks, although we do not know which banks, on those payments. but if russia

chair. >> thank you. >>> fed chair jay powell the first move to fight inflation. what a round trip for the markets. look at s&p 500 now. in rally mode. after the fed chair gave commentary saying expects every meeting to be live in other words, you can see ongoing interest rate hikes potentially at any meeting this year a lot priced in. s&p up 1.6%. fell before pt news conference and rallied back dow also trading higher now. nasdaq as well look atwhat's happened in the bond market, tells the story saw yields shoot up immediately on the back of the statement take that initial seven hikes per year predicted by the dot forecast from the fed came as a surprise fed chair powell started talking yields starting coming lower dollar is weaker overall taken at the market pretty much expecting this joining me here at post nine, former goldman sachs president, gary, welcome. especially after a big fed day like this. glad to you have by my side. >> thanks for having me. great to be in-person. >> yeah. your take what we heard from powell and the market reaction looked like a litt

thank you, chair powell for your leadership. the worst inflation we've seen in four decades because of democratic reckless spending capitol hill. house democrats keep hoping the senate will take up the $2 trillion in new spending for bill back better or whatever they're going to call it. this would only make rising prices worse for families across the country. the budget model estimates average american families spent $3500 more last year to keep up with rising prices. nowhere is this more evident than at the supermarket, where folks are seeing 22% increase in grocery bills according to recent studies. for a family of four this could mean choosing between grocery they need and saving for their child's education, there term it or a home. the mac and people should not have to mortgage the future because of democrats'love of spending to give the illusion of prosperity in the moment. despite what we heard from president biden last night, telling people they are better off does not make it true. i'm pleased the president sided with r

reporter: hi, chair powell.looking at summary of economic projections you all have inflation coming down over the course of the year to 4.3%. and then you also have rates going up to what appears to still be below roughly what would be estimated to be the neutral rate although i know that is a little bit uncertain. i was just wondering how much of inflation coming down do you see actually being a result of the fed itself raising rates? and then also if i could just ask, given that sarah bloom raskin with drew her nomination, what do you expect to do with the regulatory portfolio. do you expect to assign a governor at that? >> tell me your first question? reporter: my first question how much you expect inflation to come down as a direct result of the fed's actions? >> so part of inflation coming down at the very beginning is clearly to do with factors other than our policy. those would include potentially supply chains getting better. certainly base effects, you're lapping as you know, looking at a 12 month trail

. >> thank you, chair powell. i'm sorry i'm having some communication problems so i missed some of the stuff you'd said and i apology if this has been asked. since the fomc met last january, financial conditions have tightened markedly, equity prices down, treasure yields up, bond spreads risen, yield curve has flattened a lot and even further today the dollar is up. is that welcome and would you like to see more in order to achieve your goals? thank you. >> so as you know, policy works through financial conditions. that's how it reaches the real economy by just the mechanisms you mentioned, and remember that the financial conditions we had for the last couple of years were a function not only of very aggressive and appropriately-so fiscal policy but also highly accommodate accommodative monetary policy. the monetary policy settings we put in place at the worst parts of the pandemic so it is very appropriate to move away from those and yes that will lead to some tightening in financial conditions in the form of hi

i point this out why because fed chair powell issued another very hawkish speech in his talk he vowed to take tough action on inflation and not ruling out the potential for half-point hikes >> if we conclude it is appropriate to move more aggressively we'll do so and if we determine that we need to tighten beyond common measures of neutral we'll do that. >> and in the wake of those comments big moves across the bond market. digesting what it means for the future pace. how many more hikes or half-points to face in the future. >> very interesting. the fed chair basically saying to the markets, if you didn't hear me on wednesday, let me sharpen the point. a reason why the fed is taking the aggressive stance is rising inflation and a reason why optimism among america's ceos declining. we have the ceo survey the war in ukraine, supply chain changes, inflation, energy challenges and disruptions are the other key things that ceos are watching right now ceos also say the plans for hiring, capital investment and sales declined in the first quart. our next guest calls for a global earnings slow

chair powell talked about how strong the economy was.t helps that we saw chinese abr getting ground. shows up more than 30% after beijing said they would support the economy, the markets. we are seeing crude at the moment in the asian section -- session rebounding. we saw a little decoy -- decline in the new york session. libya is asking a black -- asking opec-plus to increase supply. it was all about the treasury space. we saw yields job and the curve flattening, talking about the 530 really dropping to the lowest level since 2018. >> we are seeing asian equity futures sword. -- soaring. it feels like fed chair struck the balance reassuring on the outlook for the economy. this is what we are seeing when it comes to new zealand. trading is underway. the economy bounced in the fourth quarter according to the latest numbers in the final three months of 2021 from the contraction and lockdown in auckland. gdp is rising 3% from the third quarter. we are seeing upside sentiment when it comes to equities trading. the 10 year yield is steady. si

enqueue. >> thank you chair powell. we of course on monitoring closely the invasion of ukraine the impacts will have in our partners including our country in november require banks to notify their financial -- federal regulator within 36 hours there would be a requirement of notification you sped that up obviously given the increased amount of cyber attacks expeditious reporting by financial institutions is essential. how does the fed addresst any reporting about cyber attacks when they occur? what do you do? what's one to receive reports? first of all to date we have not seen any significant issues. but weir remain vigilant since e ukraine war. so we are in constant ongoing contact with the financial institutions especially the larger ones on cyber risk in particular in this environment we have been since a couple of monthsac ago very high alert, so are they. it's regular communication, back-and-forth the channels are opengo. and all of us on the highest stage of alert ass you would imagine. >> i think it is important.

[applause] >> thank you, chair powell. if we were going to shortcut the headlines on this i think this is the buck stops here speech. i'm going to dive right in. we are getting a number of questions so i guess i will start with your comments about neutral policy and obviously getting to neutral first. so, what does the neutral balance sheet look like? >> well, we think of the equilibrium level of the balance sheet is driven by demand for the liabilities. that's the general idea and its currency and reserving a number of other constant liabilities. these days of course we are in ample regime that means changes in the quantities of reserves will have no effect on interest rates that will be the administered rates that set the policy. so what that means effectively is the quantity of reserves is a better plus the other liabilities. now as i mentioned, we are a long way from that today. we were fairly close to that level before the pandemic set in and we had quite a lot of assets blocked and expected the balance of shrinking t

discussion thank you for joining us >>> we want to gut back to steve who was at the session where fed chair powellfinished his question and answer session and has been making more headlines steve, what can you tell us? >> the fed chair said that nothing would stop the fed from raise big 50 basis points in may if it decided that it needed to do so. he's not saying for sure that that's what the fed will do, but he's saying nothing will stop it he made clear the fed would go to 50 basis point rate hikes if it needed to as well as above neutral. here's what he said earlier in his speech >> if we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting, we will do so and if we determine that we need to tighten beyond common measures of neutral into a more restrictive stance, we'll do that as well >> not surprisingly, the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike to 65%, it was around 50% last friday, and it is up quite a bit today. it seems to be becoming the odds on bet at least for the moment of the market. and that was not

chair powell, does our u.s.m have the financial capital and liquidity to handle any economic fallout from this war? what kind of data will we be seeing >> i mean, the evidence to me strongly suggests that the answer to that is yes. we just went through a rather enormous shock with the pandemic and the near closure of the global economy and u.s. banks capital levels are at multiple decade highs liquidity level is the same. it's hard for me to look at that and say that a lack of capital is a threat at this point. there are certainly issues again, cyber, for private financial institutions is a huge issue and one that they spend a great deal of time on as do we. >> in 2015 the obama administration blocked the development of the keystone xl pipeline, decision reversed by the trump administration and president biden cancelled the permits. again, depriving the u.s. of over 800,000 barrels of oil a day. wouldn't expanding the supply of oil by 800,000 barrels a day reduce energy inflation and lower prices at the gas pump

"the exchange" begins now. >>> good morning fed chair powell saying he backs a rate hike at the meetingkets are shrugging it off, maybe embraces it well look at what else powell said today we'll look at how many hikes the market is expecting right now. >>> and the u.s. benchmark for oil topping 112 a barrel pump prices are about to spike we're looking at how we got here, why it's not sinking the

jonathan: the last time we did this, the markets told chair powell where they thought neutral was. wendy think policy becomes restrictive? were talking about massive moves in the rate and the balance sheet reduction. >> we have a long way to go. our economists don't view it as mutually exclusive to announce the balance sheet reduction and may alongside a 50 basis point hike. terminal rate of three and a quarter over the long run, our economists have said something similar for a long-term rate. there's a lot of policy tightening between now and then in order to get inflation under control. we expect the fed to remain in restrictive policy and rate hiking mode. jonathan: do you see the market pushing back anytime soon? >> it has been resilient. the backdrop while nominal rates have repriced swiftly, you had the backdrop of breakeven inflation going higher. what are rate strategists have emphasized is that it's not so much the inversion and the nominal yield curve that should be concerning in terms of signaling recession risks but watching the real yield curve and that remains upward

thank you so much, chair powell. it's wonderful to see you again, and i really appreciate the questions that senator moran is asking about how this actually works, the mechanics and economics of this, because the impacts of interest rates, the interest rates are the tool that the fed has to address inflation, but in a world where the causes of inflation are so flex, it can be -- it can have a tool with other impacts that you don't necessarily, you know -- you can anticipate it but you can't control for that. i want to come back to that, because i am very much thinking about that in the context of the workforce. you laid out in the beginning of your testimony that the american economy is really strong. we have seen, you know, millions and millions of americans go back to work, fastest economic growth since 1984 and the economy was in good shape not withstanding the fact that we have challenges around the rising prices for american families. in minnesota, the biggest economic challenge that i hear people talk about is

haidi: fed chair jerome powell speaking earlier.'s speak about the impact on markets with shane oliver, chief economist with ansi powder -- ansi capital. how much volatility do you see? we had movement in the treasury market that extended into the australian bond session, as well. shane: the reality is the situation in ukraine is far from resolved and could get worse. we have central banks raising rates and becoming more aggressive in doing so, or that seems to be the message from the u.s. fed. we've got rate hikes coming up in australia. we've seen a good rally in markets from their lows a few weeks ago, but that rally is bumping up against resistance. given those uncertainties, i think there is a high chance we could go back and retake those lows in the short term. in 6-12 months, i'm raising the outlook to optimistic as inflationary pressures continue to come off the supply side, but there is a long way until we get to that point. i think volatility will continue to dominate. haidi: how do you invest around commodity and energy p

you heard chair powell use the word nimble.t they are very much going meeting to meeting. >> dan, you point out how difficult it is to predict geopolitics, not to mention what is in putin's head, but people need to try to can that now. i am curious your thoughts about what the recessionary impact or potential may be of rising commodity prices worldwide and in particular rising energy prices in europe which would seem to certainly crimp that economy. >> yeah. i don't think there is any question about that. but, you know, i am going to play the central banker here and try to deflect the question by saying the central bank is going to need to react to what happens, i think so we know that, and there already has been, an inflationary jolt from the invasion impact on energy markets and many people expect we are going to see the impact on commodities markets, particularly food, wheat, corn markets as well. so for central banks point of view, you can take that into account. there is going to be inflationary push there, and, obviously,

fed chair powell says the economy can handle it. plus, the earthquake in japan could bring up our prices. key auto plants were also not off-line -- knocked off-line. rishaad: getting that news from the site as well, but it is also about the fed today. it 25 point hike. is it a case of prioritizing inflation overgrowth? we have ukraine as well, the president of the u.s. i'm paying -- upping the ante, sending drones to kyiv. certainly there is a rising feeling at the moment, juliet. juliette: certainly the most telegraphed rate hike in u.s. history, and we are seeing this flow-through into the positive momentum across asian markets, adding to the gains we saw yesterday. . it was the soothing words from regulators in beijing that gave a lift what we had seen particularly in the tech players. ,he saw the hang seng rise yesterday, almost 22% we have seen it search as well in morning trade today the hang seng is up 4%. . we have a weaker yen, holding at a six-year low. also adding to this positivity is some pretty good local data, we had

[applause] thank you chair powell. i think if we can pull up the headlines, powell, the buck stops here. so i'm going to dive right in . we're getting a number of questions . so i guess i'll start with just comments about fiscal policy and getting toneutral first . what does a neutral balance sheet look like? >> well, we think of the equilibrium level of balance that's driven by demand for reliability . that's the general idea and liabilities of current research on number of other liquidity's. these days of court where in an ample reserves regime which means changes in the quantity of reserves will have no effect on interest rates that actually are administered rates that set policy. what that means effectively is an ample quality of reserves as a buffer plus the otherreliabilities. as i mentioned , we're a long way from thattoday . we were fairly close to that level before the pandemic set in, before we talk quite a lot of assets and i expect in the coming years we will begin the process of shrinking the balance sheet

. >>> good morning fed chair powell saying he backs a rate hike at the meeting and the markets are shrugging it off, maybe embraces it well look at what else powell said today we'll look at how many hikes the market is expecting right now. >>> and the u.s. benchmark for oil topping 112 a barrel pump prices are about to spike we're looking at how we got here, why it's not sinking the markets and how high we could go >> a look at the actions u.s. companies from apple to nike to boeing have taken to avoid doing business with russia the impact it will have on their business, and on russia. but first dom has more on the market rebound up 628 >> we're picking up steam as we head toward the midday, early afternoon part of the trading session. 630-point gain for the dow 1 .9% to the up side the s&p up 80 points, 3486 the last trade and the nasdaq composite, the underperformer if you want to call it that today 13,707 is the last trade up 175 points. that's only about one and a quarter point advance. we're trying to find stability there over some of the recent downside volatility we've seen and big si

we know that chair powell supports a 25 basis point hike, could we see a 50 basis point one? depends on inflation. that was made clear today because jay powell took tough questions from republican senate dems on the house banjo services committee. he said inflation is indisputable he too high. he made it definitely clear on march 16 we will see between five basis point rate hike, at least that's what he is expecting, and if inflation stays too high, the fed could get more aggressive. let us listen to what he said. >> i think it will be appropriate to raise our target range at the mars -- march meeting in a couple weeks. and inclined to support a 25 basis point rate hike and to the extent that inflation comes higher or is more persistent than that, we would be prepared to move more aggressively by it raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings. kathleen: sounds like 50, doesn't it? and not just at a meeting. meetings. the jay powell has definitely opened the door to the fed getting more aggressive as he tells congress the fed will get i

powell himself did touch on this point. i want you to listen to fed chairay powell's comments on this. >> there is good research by staff in the federal reserve system that really says to look at the first 18 months of the yield curve. that really has 100 percent of the explanatory power of the yield curve. no one expects that a soft landing will be straightforward than the correct context -- in the correct context. dani: we do have a chart of this 18 month key builds yield curve and that has been steepening. how much runway does this give the fed to continue to act more aggressively despite other parts of the curve getting closer to inverting? frederique: organizing a soft landing is very tricky. if you think of all this up -- all of the tightening cycles since 1950, not enough to produce a recession, so if you are behind the curve, it moves more sharper than expected, the risk of a recession can increase. we think at the moment, perhaps 20% or 25%, but the more aggressive fed action could bump that up slightly. dani: it feels like soft landing has become

chair powell first joined the board of governors may 2012 to fill in open term and was reappointed to the board june 14, 2014 and then became fed chair and is currently at for a second term. now he has been in dc for a long time. he started his career at carlisle and served as assistant secretary and undersecretary he was department of treasury under george each to be bush, and also has worked on the hill. so he is a longtime speaker of the dc scene and in my opinion we cannot find anyone better with four hour chair so i will tocome chair powell to the stag. [applause] >> thank you constance. thank you for the opportunity to speak today it's great to be back in to see so many familiar faces around the room. let me first pause to recognize the millions you are sufferingg the tragic consequence of russia invasion of ukraine. at the federal reserve are monetary policy is guided by the dual mandate for maximum employment and stable prices. from that standpoint the current picture is plain to see the labor market is strong and inflation is much too high. my colleagues and i are acutely awa

going to be concerned that there is dissent on that committee and the onus is going to be upon chair powell when he is at the podium to be very explicit and specific about how they expect to roll the balance sheet off if that is going to come with the may meeting. if it is going to be $80 billion a month or $100 billion. there are a lot of things to answer to with a backdrop he was not expecting for this particular march meeting, and that is he was expecting base affects to have kicked in and for the anticipation to be that the march consumer price index print would start to take down. we know that the double shocks of food and energy are going to prevent that from happening. matt: what do you expect in terms of the recession probability, daniel? with the fed starting to raise rates, the yield curve at around 30 basis points -- so, close to 0 -- and inflation in a lot of places already at double digits and evidently heading there? danielle: you know, there is a lot to unpack there and i think recession probabilities are higher than what goldman sachs suggests at 35% probability. the base ca

it includes fed chair jay powell as well as governor bailey, among others. you got negative yields and bonds, total volume up. the lowest going back to 2016, absolutely plummeting. how much they talk about the dissonance between the bond market and stocks that are still dancing? eia oil inventories. and curious to see how much we've really drawn down in the united states. how much has the fundamental story changed? is this a trading distortion, or is this something edified by the data, edified by the supplies starting to build up again? i'm really curious to hear not only from the covid president, but the u.s. commerce secretary. this comes after an agreement between the u.s. and the united kingdom on removing steel and aluminum. how much is this the new normal, trying to reward all the allies and even frenemies to gird the economy for a possible disruption from the conflict of the russian war in ukraine? jonathan: a conversation you don't want to miss. we have had a massive move in the markets lower. more than 70 basis points on the month so far for a two y

the reason they're concerned is they don't want to repeat the mistake of the 1970s, something chair powell testimony over the last two days at capitol hill. >> diane, we're going to take a quick minute for a news alert o twitter with julia >> the latest here is that twitter has been banned by the russian regulators twitter is getting blocked in russia this comes after we heard facebook is getting blocked in russia earlier, we heard that these platforms were being limited in russia and there was limited access to them but now, they are fully blocked in the country we have reached out to twitter for a comment and have not heard back yet >> continuing a press against western news sources including the bbc and others do we have time to go back to diane for a quick question quick question you see no reason why chair powell would back away from raising interest rates at his meeting in march, do you >> not in march. nothing short of a full credit market seizure would stop the fed from raising in march at this stage of the game >> diane, thank you very much. have a great weekend >> and not mincing

shortly after the news conference, jerome powell's nomination to serve as fed chair for a second term was favorably approved by the senate banking committee. >> good afternoon. i want to begin by acknowledging tremendous hardship ukrainian people are suffering as a result of russia's invasion. the human toll is tragic. financial economic implications for the global economy and u.s. economy are highly uncertain. achieving monetary policy goal congress has given us, maximum price stability. today in support of these goals, they raise policy interest rates by one quarter percentage. the economy is very strong and against the backdrop of an extremely tight labor market and high inflation from a committee anticipates ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate. in addition, we expect to begin reducing the size of our balance sheet. economic activity expanded at a robust five and a half% from last year reflecting progress on vaccinations and reopening of the economy, fiscal and monetary policies support healthy financial positions of household and bu

this is bloomberg. ♪ chair powell: the fomc raised by one quarter point. fed anticipates that ongoing changes will be appropriate. jonathan: chairman powell, the first interest rate hike since 2018, and going back a couple of years, did you think we would get this soon? lisa: no, and i think they did not think so either. they really indicated they were surprised. he also seems to indicate that the labor market was dangerously tight. what did you make of that? that is pretty strong language for a fed that has had such a strong implement made it. jonathan: i found that news conference fascinating. if i checked the equity market, i think it would be surprised to see how deep into the green it was a stunned some of the things he said yesterday on what they got to do through the next two years. futures come in a couple of tenths of 1%. yields come in five basis points on tens. crude just short of $100 at $99.59. if you are wondering what happened to those two dollar bonds, the interest payments on them russia needed to pay yesterday, the total was about $117 mil

we heard from fed chair jay powell just moments ago. jim bullard of the st.is fed saying he does think we can achieve a soft landing, even as the fed moves to a more restrictive policy. based on the on the ground experience you have with the firms you are investing in, do you think it is achievable? david: nobody really knows, but i think the fed has done a reasonably good job of recognizing that interest rates probably need to go up. the question is how much and how frequently. i think the markets are assuming about six different times this year we will have rate increases, probably about 25 each time, but it is not impossible there could be a 50 basis point increase at some point, depending on what the inflation numbers are. i think the fed may have missed the market a little bit. it may be could have been a little bit earlier, a little bit stronger at fighting inflation. i think the word transitory is probably not going to be used again. kailey: they stuck to that for quite some time. how much credibility do you think the fed has lost still has here? david

we just don't know what fed chair powell seems to think because he does not seem to be with the consensusthan: we will continue to count you down to chairman powell and his address later. looking forward to that in about 20 minutes. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping up to date with news from around the world. in china, a boeing 737 operated by china has crashed. there were 132 people on board. no word on casualties. the video shows smoke in the western area. china is withholding flights of those planes for now. russia's attack on ukraine has forced 10 million people to flee their homes. that is almost one quarter of the population according to the united nations. while most displaced people stayed in ukraine. 2 million are in poland. president biden's administration will brief business executives today. among the companies at the meeting, exxon mobil and bank of america. the price of oil rose for the third day in a row. the global oil market has been pitched into turmoil by russia invasion of ukraine. the e.u. will consider a russian oil embargo. there has been a shakeup at c

i will absolutely confirm what chair powell has confirmed for himself.everything on the table. if we need to do 50, that is what we will do. the date it will help us determine how much is necessary. the important thing everybody listening would like to know is that we are committed to moving the policy rate in alignment with what the economy needs, and right now it does not need all of the extra neri support we have been offering. >> went to think the war in ukraine is going to do to the global and u.s. economies. we had governor waller on the board saint key did not vote for 50 basis point/time because he was unsure, but jim bullard said we cannot wait to find out. what do you think? >> i put a couple of risks in front of people. my heart goes out to the ukrainian people, but if you think about the effects on the economy, it definitely a global headwind. in the u.s. with the domestic economy i see it as further upward pressure on prices, gasoline but also other commodity prices which ultimately are goods that we are already finding high prices for so i

powell: correct. >> and in that capacity you have the ability to chair the board while we wait for theandling of your nomination? mr. powell: yes. sen. crapo: i want to make it clear, i hope we handle your nomination soon, and i intend to vote in support of it. what i wanted to also make it clear you are fully functioning as the chair now, and the capacity of chair pro tem. it is also correct that you were named in january by the federal reserve board as the chairman of the fomc? mr. powell: actually, i was elected by the fomc to be chair. sen. crapo: you are elected by the fomc? got it. we found one other aspect. you have already discussed the dual mandate of the fed, low and stable inflation rates and maximum employment. disturbingly, to me, there are some suggesting that the federal reserve should, in addition to that, or even as a part of that, that the should stop so-called sub optimal industries from having access to capital, either to restrict their access to capital or pride their access to capital. do you believe that any kind of standard such as that should be something the f

thank you. >> fed chair powell says he can engineer a soft landing.'s changed in the last few weeks or so now that we have a big energy shock getting worse by the day, and the market trading at largely, like, a stagflationary kind of risk? higher inflation, slower growth. is that right? >> yeah. no it's a fair question i think it's hard to really consider a stagflationary environment just coming off a gdp quarter that was 7% when you have unemployment down to 4% and when you probably have the tightest job market that i've seen in my many decades doing this work. we have, as the president had stated, great faith in chair powell which is why he renominated him to engineer a soft landing the president has been wholly supportive of the fed's pivot. i think it's very important, even while we have this very concerning inflationary environment with energy prices doing what they're doing, it's really important not to forget the strong economic backdrop and to think about what americans would be going through if they didn't have ample jobs, low unemployment an

it makes financial conditions a little looser, which makes fed chair powell's job a littlesie i easiertely if it's the right trade, what's going on right now, given the fed chair is doubling and tripling down on this inflation fight >> it's not the cleanest read at all. and i think a lot of times what i would resort to in trying to figure out what's going on is, again, to go back to positioning and where we started from. you go back a week, and there was absolutely rock bottom sentiment and risk positioning it's obviously gotten taken care of people chasing this rally. we have been talking about the late-day rallies every day that often means people feel underinvested, nld exposed to a stock market not letting them in that can't last for long maybe it's running its course now, but to me it helps explain why the big index stocks which are the big growth stocks are playing catch-up even as rates go up. >> tesla, apple, microsoft, amazon, google leading the qqqs higher what do you see in the internals? >> it's been positive but not overwhelmingly so. the s&p is lagging the equal weighted