. >>> we'll take a look at the markets following that speech from fed chair powell. the all are modestly lower. nasdaq is pulling up the drag there, down 0.60%. we had been positive earlier in the session following what was largely expected, carl, from the fed share. powell maintaining his hawkish stance during his much anticipated speech out of jackson hole. powell saying he's still open to further rate hikes. >> although inflation has moved down from its peak, a welcome development, it remains too high. we are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective. >> joining us, wells fargo chief economist jay bryson. you heard the chair there. i believe you listened to his speech. he didn't tip his hand totally but left the door open for more hikes, if necessary. you believe the tightening is coming to an end. do you still believe that after what you heard from the chair this morning? >> yeah, courtney, we still think tightening has come t

if you take a look at what has been said today by fed chair powell, was there anything surprising?left the door open for future interest rate hikes and you still have a market expecting cuts into next year. >> i don't think chair powell broke any new ground today. he echoed a lot of themes he emphasized in the press conference and in the july meeting. he really put a marker down to indicate the fed is not considering revising up its inflation target. they are focused on 2% and they clearly feel the job is not done and there is more work to do to loosen up the labor market and the fed to feel confident inflation can be brought down to 2% and sustained their going forward. sonali: there is a lot of conversation about the uncertainty around the target. he did not go so far as to say it should be revised. should it be? >> long-term, it's probably higher than half a percent3+ . that's probably too low and that estimate came down in the postgfc period and has stated 2.5%. the evidence suggests it has risen. as chair powell indicated, the labor market is having a greater impact on inflati

fed chair powell delivering what you could call a moderately hawkish speech. said inflation was still too high, and says his choice seem to be holding rates at a restrictive level or hiking again. >> we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and evolving outlook and risks. two months of good data are only the beginning of what it would take to build confidence that inf inflation is moving sustainably toward our goal. we can't yet know the extent to which these lower readings will continue or where underlying inflation will settle over coming quarters. >> markets sold off in anticipation of the speech, and in response to stronger economic growth numbers we've gotten some equities were higher and bonds were definitely higher as well. the outlook for fed rate hikes increased. the probabilities of a november increase passed the 50% mark, stand at 56% now. powell mentioned several factors or scenarios that could lead to additional highs. economic growth running higher than expected. inflation down, and the labor market remaining too t

wondering, and these are really just the place we are, and i have to say, as i was waiting for chair powell speech, i said to myself, this feels like a conversation we had internally with our investment colleagues. there is a universal consensus that where we are today is not a premium position. the rates are restrictive, but when you get to details of how restrictive they are, that is where there is a difference of opinion and that is what chair powell basically said today as well. there is a lot of uncertainty. i think it is a fools errand to try and definitively answer the question today. this is a process. we are getting to the new neutral experience. we know what the economy, what the data does. we'll draw conclusions about where that longer-term equity is. if it's really new. >> we are just debating decimal points around the switch is in stark contrast to how we started with the fed and investors in totally different places with great expectations read is it fair to say that there is a disagreement under nuances or basis points. has a good view. >> in the short term, yes. the idea tha

what's the sense of the message chair powell wants to send tomorrow >> reporter: another thing joe said, i thought was really interesting that the bond market looks trumping the market here i do think powell has to walk a fine line. i don't know that i can say or the bond market will go parabolic. it's one where the federal reservehas to have concern about inflation but a bunch of success in bringing inflation down we've gotten to this point where unchanged unemployment, gdp is running pretty strong. that's the big question to me whether he feels he needs to address that stronger gdp growth last year he said it would require below trend growth higher rates was not a concern for him. i don't think we're that on edge on monetary policy here because i think the fed is in a wait-and-see attitude. i don't know what the market he heard. >> i think we've probably done enough my question to you is harker on an island -- is he on an island, or is he part of the majority at this point >> reporter: i don't think so. look, there's -- if you want to put together a majority, the majority would be tho

even chair powell talking about the possibility of raising the fed fund rates further if appropriate. we saw treasury yields really spiking across the board, the two year yield past that 5% level and the u.s. dollar continuing to gained ground for a third consecutive session. although that did not weigh on oil prices we actually saw two weeks of losses. fort wti. we are seeing a little bit of upside right now but the thing about oil is all to do with potential global supply rebounding and of course that demand from china potentially being weak given the slump in their economy. haidi: for the first time fed chair jay powell has acknowledged progress on disinflation and hinted multiple times that real interest rates are already quite restrictive. this makes sense with signals from jackson hole, our chief rates correspondent for asia and mliv contributor garfield reynolds joining us. we knew that it was going to be perhaps more greenspan, certainly when it comes to this continued careful management of the economic and policy risks, what was a key takeaway as we saw this attempt to finall

we are talking about categories of price pressures chair powell talked about. vonnie: enter the first time he talked about that, as you said, and he was quite a bit about the fact that inflation is coming down. however, there is still the threat of more interest rate hikes. not a promise, but definitely at the red. the light getting quoted most as we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies. in other words, the fed does not quite know long and variable legs what they mean right now, whether that has shifted and how long is long? yields of the two year treasury kind of 5%. he stays restrictive until inflation is more near 2%. he talked about real interest rates being positive and well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy. let's listen to him in his own words for more on that, because this is a significant line. >> we see the current stance of policy as restrictive, putting downward pressure on economic activity, hiring, and inflation, but we cannot identify it with certainty the neutral rate of interest, so so there is always uncertainty about

chair powell set to speak next friday. what's the tradup?e the sentiment is decidely negative here. >> part of it is where we have been, and so the sentiment was so ebb ewe lent coming into the last few weeks and all of a sudden it's really turned on a dime. all the economists started to can ph late and say actually there probably won't be a recession. with rates where they are, there's questions what that means. it's a mixed picture. you can cherry pick. it's very mixed data. but i think where the fed is is they just really want to get this absolutely right, and in order to do that they want to fill their entire bingo card. in order to do that they're going to have to hold higher for a really long time, and i think that's going to be the direction of chairman powell's commentary. >> tim, when we got the minutes this week, it was like you could make a case for the doves, for the hawks. i don't think they're going to show us cards this week on friday. so what could we expect from chair powell? or do you agree or disagree with that idea? >> i

i want to get your thoughts on the comments from chair powell on friday. the takeaway is not how much higher we go, whether we get 25 basis points or not, but for how long they stay at these elevated levels. >> first of all, yes, the chairman was careful, as you would expect he didn't tip his hand at all. i would say he's cautious and i think he's cautious about the economy. number one, while it has slowed, it's stronger than people expected it's stronger than people thought. that gives them some pause they're committed -- he did reaffirm the 2% inflation target that raises the issue of whether there will be additional rate increases. my own view is listening to him and the chatter around it, there will be -- unless there's a surprise, inflation surprise in september, it's just as likely they will pause as go forward and wait and see what might happen before their lake october meeting. and then decide, but if they have upward move inflation, i think likely they will move. the other thing is, people are more concerned for the longer run, that's getting more

where markets didn't get it, and i think chair powell clearly, made it. the fed will do it ever takes. now, inflation is falling unambiguously. even with the sticky things and services, they are looking better now. my guess is that this will continue. it is not a flash in the pan. it is sustained disinflation, but i don't think they will declare any sort of victory. i think they will want to obtain optionality, just in case things go wrong again. i would be disappointed over the last couple of years where there would be good numbers followed by bad numbers. he's not going to say we are done. he's not going to stop promising rate cuts, but ultimately, there comes a point in every economic cycle where the market says, you are talking tough, but you've done what you need to do. at that point, we are seeing yields rallying. the fair bit of scope is between now and year-end. the tenure will make a fair bit of progress. i will be disappointed if we didn't get a meaning below 3% by the end of the air, and i hope by the time we get to the middle of next year be m

earlier today fed chair powell's speech. he said that he's ready to raise interest rates if necessary to tame inflation, but admits there's still a lot of uncertainty. >> as is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies. in such circumstances, risk management considerations are critical. at upcoming meetings we will assess our progress base and a totality of data and evolving outlook and risks. based on this assessment we will proceed carefully deciding whether to tighten further or instead hold the policy rate constant and await further data, here with reaction, david wessel. senior fellow in economic studies at brookings institution. long-time follower of the fed ron insana, cnbc commentator and chief market strategist and dynasty financial partners and our guest host for the our, portfolio manager at dcla and a cnbc contributor. a lot of contributors here, folks. begin with you, david. as you look at the text what chair powell said, anything that stood out to you? anything that was sort of unexpecte

investors awaiting what chair powell will say at jackson hole later this week.nge group says that again has become too weak and its benefits for equities are diminishing. he has told bloomberg not to worry as he sees other factors boost in stocks. >> geopolitical or macro reasons the japanese economy is recovering. reallocating of their investment from china to other places. also, japanese inflationary pressure is coming. haidi: you can get more from our exclusive on daybreak asia's japan ahead monday, august 28. daybreak asia as next as we continue to pass through a number of these earnings. nvidia will have a huge impact on tech trading today. ♪ i don't want you to move. i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet waiting for us at the new place, right? oh, we know. we just like making a scene. transferring your services has never been easier. get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. can i sleep over at your new place? can katie sleep over tonight? sure, honey! this generation is so dramatic! move with the xfinity 10g network

chair powell also spoke about the economic outlook during a speech at the federal reserve bank economic symposium in jackson hole, wyoming. >> thank you, betsy, and good morning, everyone. at last year's jackson hole symposium, i delivered a brief, direct message. my remarks this year will be a bit longer, but the message is the same. it is the fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal and we will do so. although inflation has moved down from its peak, a welcome development, it remains too high. we are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate and intend to hold policies at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective. >> the unprecedented pandemic related demand and supply distortions and on i will >> forces are working together to bring down inflation, the process still has a long way to go. even with the more favorable recent readings. the u.s. total pce inflation peaked at 7% in june 2022 and declined to 3.3% as of july following introductory roughly in line with global trends. the effects of russia's war again

chair powell estimated he doesn't really know with that level is.is the right thing to be focusing on? >> i think so. no one knows what the neutral rate is, but they don't know what the actual neutral unemployment rate is or anything else for that matter, so they are working through that. we know that the neutral rate now is higher. everyone seems to be aware of that and that we need to keep that in mind as the federal reserve calibrates its policy of enforcement. we know that they are above the neutral rate because the economy is slowing, but how much so, they don't know, say they are going to carefully go forward and as i said, watch the data, and make some judgments through the month of september before they get to that final september meeting. shery: what just watching the data in that dependency mean for the treasury space where we have seen so much volatility as of late? >> the treasury will remain volatile, for the fed, they are looking to see where the inflation numbers come out in the september 13 announcements, and how the markets would re

said chair jay powell -- the said share jay powell will be speaking -- federal reserve chair jay powelln the details. bond traders continuing to fixate on this mutual rate. there is a lot to wait -- to away coming out of jackson hole. annabelle: fed officials are focusing on the session. central bank is said to have done enough and powell set -- and susan told yahoo! finance we might be a place where we could hold but the open for japan and korea has started trading on the bull yet -- the move yesterday was for treasury yields and dollar strength put stocks under pressure in the session. no surprises perhaps the nikkei 225 coming online 1.3% to the downside and still watching the japanese yen given we just pushed above the 140 six level with the greenback strength. japanese inflation figures, tookie ones came out half an hour ago, considered a leading indicator for the country but consumer prices fresh food rising 2.8% below 3% for the first time since last september, weaker than predicted. boj says price gains will moderate due to following commodity this year and into next but it is i

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jay powell, the fed chair, is going to speak. r more, mliv strategist mark cranfield joins us now. what do you expect will be the key takeaways for jackson hole? mark: nobody will be surprised if jerome powell talks about wanting to keep interest rates high for a long time. that would not be a shock because inflation still has not reached its target but by the time people review jackson hole, they might find that christine lagarde turns out to be the star of the event. she has got a lot more to worry about. the german economy is the most important, showing clear signs that it is heading towards recession. in fact, the data this week, before she even speaks at jackson hole, may confirm that germany is backing into a recession and that is a huge worry for the european central bank who were trying to say they would be more -- there would be more interest rates to come but she might have to backtrack on that. because china especially is really affecting the german economy. german exports these days are less than half they were to chin

fed chair jay powell coming out at 10:00 a.m. eastern. christine lagarde will be there. i want to understand whether he takes up the point and it doesn't talk about anything substantial and basically just goes after some esa tarik canonic debate just goes after something less consequential but that sounds like it has gravitas. jonathan: do no harm, tom. first cause of action, say nothing. he is going to say something. i'm not going to say he is going to say this, but jason furman -- tom: has been on fire. jonathan: further down the road, tolerating something just below 3% on cpi. a few years later, maybe formalizing that at the new price target. tom: we really need to frame it for you, this debate between getting back to 2% or even below that versus whatever. but that debate needs to be framed absolutely. >> wonderful to get you on the program with us. i know where you stand on manufacturing coming up to services. for people who haven't followed the global economy, services is still ok, stateside manufacturing just a little bit softer. you are expecting manufacturing to

guy: a lot of people are excited about chair powell on friday at jackson hole.he moment our posing questions about the longevity of the current expansion on whether or not we are starting to roll over and roll over quickly. does lagarde -- how close do you think we are to lagarde pivoting and saying, we need to take a step act here? data dependent, yes, but the risks are rising. chris: i heard what you said earlier. it does feel as though it is borderline. where the similarities exist with the u.s. is that they need to see inflation turned the corner and have the confidence. perhaps, it feels too early to make that adjustment. sure, fed powell has got strong support to be careful about inflation expectations over the longer term. i think the ecb will be reluctant to very quickly turn around their views on inflation expectations and -- we are bullish on euro-dollar. one of the arguments against us is, the eurozone story will crumble for differentials narrow with the states. that is perhaps what is happening at the moment with euro-dollar. guy: we will get pmi dat

and 1% of the revenues on interest, we have issues that need to be addressed is not only what chair powellttee there somewhat limited but there's other issues that they need to start getting attention and my hope is that they will. cheryl: mike, i want to go back to that, testimony but in a way he's going to be very measured and very careful on friday, i really don't think that is going to say anything especially jackson hole that will upset the market in the reminder we talked last hour about this piece from nick timiraos talking about the fact that they're backward to be able to get back to the lower rates, the higher rates, the higher interest rate for this country is going to stay elevated, there it is, why the historically low interest rates could be over, he makes a very good point in this article. >> it is going to be hard for rates to go back the other way without a total devastating economic event which still may be on the horizon but many people including myself predicted we would be in a recession right now innocently has not come along yet, without the economic devastation in a

that's why i think, you know, there's some focus on jackson hole and fed chair powell will speak on friday. there's just not enough. he'll get another jobs report and another inflation report before the september meeting he cannot announce any kind of pivot now. it's too early to get a signal of what they should do next. i think that's the clear -- the market doesn't know and the fed doesn't know. >> i don't think the market's biggest fear is the fed goes in september. the market's bigger fear is inflation rekindles or they lose control of the long end takes flight and then we have to - >> and we don't cut until end of next year maybe or early next year because that's the other big debate out there in the market all i know is the ten-year yield at 4.3%, we are reaching now the cycle highs. that's impacting stocks and growth. >> let's get to walmart. raising full-year guidance after a top and bottom line beat courtney reagan bringing us an interview with john david rainey at the bottom of the hour. >> expectations were high for walmart going in even after what we heard from target we heard

. >> and i've been happy to find that there has definitely been credit tightening, and you saw chair powellntense credit tightening. we raised the interest rate, there's always going to be credit tightening. the question was, is there going to be more than you would expect from monetary policy. so far it doesn't seem there has been. >> reporter: so far is a good phrase because we had a recent spike up in interest rates. does that cause you some concern for the economy, change your outlook? >> a little. some concerns. it is what it is. we're in a position where we're balancing off there are other readings like the gdp now type readings that say maybe growth is accelerating. so if the longer rates are going up and if there's some restraint coming on that side to bring it into balance -- >> reporter: you don't have to react. >> that's what we're trying to weigh. >> reporter: scott wapner has a question for you. >> thank you for being here on "halftime." to me, one of the real wild cards centers around the lag effect. the fed chair himself mentioned it today when he talked about the possibility

the s&p 500 trying to snap the longest losing streak of the year on the back of federal chair powell's speech. our next guest says that stocks won't add too much value to investors' portfolios from here. welcome back. good to see you. >> hey, scott, how are you? >> good, thanks. let's deal with the fed chair's speech first. what did you think of it? and what do you make of the reaction here as we head towards the close in the stock market? >> well, i guess in digesting all the things he said, which wasn't much, there wasn't anything new there, i guess the missed opportunity that i kind of see is that he could have been a little more hawkish than he was. we certainly have had a run of very strong economic numbers, which i think put this sort of no landing scenario on the table for everyone. i'm not in that scenario. i do believe in the lag scenario. we are still in the recession camp. and so i think what he said was we're navigating by the stars under cloudy skies. that doesn't feel very comforting to me as far as where we're going and how we get out of this situation of pretty persiste

the good news for chair powell is this is a target-rich environment. whether he chooses to focus on the immediate, whether he chooses to focus on the longer term or punt, as others have done in the past, and look at a narrow economic issue with no policy implications. he has a lot to talk about, carl. that just shows you how fluid the current situation is. >> right. speaking of target rich, you probably don't envision any attempt to make adjustments to the inflation target, or do you? i'm just thinking in light of the piece in the journal over the weekend about r-star. >> there's more and more people saying, look, if we were to decide on inflation target today, it would not be 2%. it would be slightly above that. i think that's a very strong argument for that. having said that, it is very hard for central bank to change an inflation target when it has been missing it so consistently. so, yes, thaurz a theoretical argument for higher inflation target but don't look for chair powell to touch that issue in any significant way. >> interesting. i wanted to

. >>> fed chair powell's speech was front and center for investors on friday. what is the next thing that should be on investors radar ? you will get the catalyst. plus, two key consumer names and a chinese ev maker reports before the bell. we will of the story of the trade all ahead on earnings exchange. exchange is back after this. >> this is the exchange on cnbc. was wrong was i started to notice that i couldn't do things without losing my breath. i couldn't make it through the airport, and every like 20 or 30 yards i had to sit down and get my breath. every physical exertion seemed to exhaust me. and finally, i went to the hospital where i was diagnosed with afib. when i first noticed symptoms, which kept coming and going, i should have gone to the doctor and told them what was happening. instead, i tried to let it pass. if you experience irregular heartbeat, heart racing, chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue, or light-headedness, you should talk to your doctor. afib increases the risk of stroke about 5 times i want my experience to help others understa

if that's the case, if the fed has to hike like chair powell mentioned today, inflation might come down think bonkers might be the right wore for that. powell was pretty firm on this 2% inflation target, pushing back against these rumblings, a lot of people saying 3%, some saying even higher. if they're going to be higher for longer, i mean, does it, is it a moot point anyway? >> well, i think powell did the right thing by firmly pushing back against inflation target. but with what you have to keep in mind is that the fed is independent within the federal government but not of it. so all these influential voices that we're seeing, people like jason furman who is a very respected economist and also others, they are trying to push the dialogue towards socializing a higher inflation target. to that might eventually feed into, into the fed. not immediately and maybe not with this fed chair, but maybe in the coming years. so if you're a bond investor, that's something you might want to keep in mind before you buy something like a 10-year or 30-year treasury. charles: you know, that's a great

powell on friday. in your view, did we hear anything significantly new from the fed chair?> i think from the perspective, the key emphasis taken away is higher for longer. the expectation that the rates are remaining at the current level or higher for longer than the market anticipated. the fed has raised rates all year and the market continued to price in rate cuts would come in and soon as the end of the year and beginning of 2024. i think what was clear from the message on friday is that is not the case and we saw that through with the forward pricing where rate cuts are not expected by the markets until june of 2024. i think the key message to take away is higher for longer. >> just bringing it back to the near term, between now and september, what are the most important metrics or releases that investors should be focusing on? >> obviously anything that is around that core inflation data because the headline inflation has been coming down. there's still issues with the core numbers and feeding into that, of course, is the resilience of the labor market. the u.s. labor

>> yes, and i think chair powell made that clear. he said we've gotten two good months of news on inflation but we aren't sure that that's going to last and they're going to be looking at the inflation data, they're going to be looking at the labor market, they're going to be looking for those slowings that they're expecting and if they don't see them then they're perfectly willing to raise rates again if that's what it takes. >> and before we go, aditya, can you put some context around these high numbers we're getting for the third quarter from the atlanta fed? and not so much take into whether they're better than anyone else but how strong could third quarter gdp be? how different might it look by the fourth quarter first sub quarter of next year? >> right. so we're tracking 2.7% for the third quarter. the atlanta fed of course is closer to 6%. there's different elements to these forecasts. but the point is that we started at 2% and very quickly with the early wave of july data we've gone to 2.7. i think we'll probably see a softer

and all eyes -- says right here, all eyes, you got eyes on jackson hole what fed chair powell will have to say what can you expect, and how the markets could react. we'll look at that. >>> and some fast movers catching our eyes. a cycling slump and a f flourishing pharma stock what's behind the big swings, when "fast money" comes back. >>> missed a moment of "fast?" follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins, you can pay more but you can't get more. gold bond. champion your skin. >>> all right, welcome back to "fast money. stocks jumping ahead of the fed's big jackson hole meeting that begins, i think, tomorrow, and really the pinnacle of it is friday, when chair powell speaks the dow climbing half a percent. the s&p posting its first 1% plus gain of the quarter that's hard to believe and nasdaq up more than 1.5% today, bringing its win streak to three straight days the yankees can't say that shares of cloud services stock cloudflare climbing 6% today the stock getting a boost on reports that spacex is working w

fed chair powell warned rates could go higher to combat rates sending the market lower you but then the frowns turned upside down. okay, where does that leave us carter worth? make sense of it. >> sure. just as you say, the conclusion was thats after full today, but it was up almost 1%, down 1%, closed well. on the week before we look at the charts, that's the thing. the dow jones industrial average was down, the transportation ank down on the week, the russell was down on the week. the s&p up, the midcap unch. it's something for bulls and bears. we have a topping formation. let's look at that not only in the s&p and severalin aggregate. first line. minor reversal knowns a head and shoulder. let's look at the next aggregate. this is the next chart. nasdaq 100. you can't tell them apart. let's keep going. you'll see instance after instance, okay, this is the sector, right, that depicts all industrials. xli. it's the same setup. let's keep going. all the the same time frame. this is consumer discretion, xly. it's got amazon and tesla in it. this is tech. look at the next. we've got housin

the consensus on the committee is one where they still are less certain about that and i think chair powell is saying that we may need to tighten more if inflation doesn't show a clear downward trend, especially core inflation. >> i think chair powell is definitely saying that at least based on his comments following jackson hole so looking at the cme fed watch earlier, shows more than an 85% chance of a pause. about 20 days away from that september meeting. is this report a big inflection point you think that the fed will make its final decision on? or other data points coming up that we should pay more attention to >> it's certainly a big piece of the puzzle we have another cpi reading coming up before the meeting, and that will tell us more whether the trend is in tact going down, or whether that bumpy trend will have some upward bias. so i think one of the things that the fed is very cautious, also, as much as labor markets are easing up, the revisions in gdp are still showing, we have a pretty strong economy out there. >> we always say that pce is the preferred gauge. so how could cpi

what questions are investors hoping to get answered by chair powell? kathleen: they are hoping for, maybe not unduly expected, something in that specific realm, not just broadly about how monetary policy operates or what their tools are, but something more about what is going to happen next. unprecedented rate hikes, the economy still holding up quite nicely. so will powell been signal, you know, we -- then signal we have to do more? the labor market is still too strong? that would be hawkish speech he could give. will he focus more on we have had so many rate hikes and they can work with a lab. we need time to see how they are working out. we can tighten further, but put it in the middle ground. maybe they are looking to cut rates. there have been a couple fed officials who sat next year, if inflation is falling, than they could think about cutting rates. these are the forecasts that fed had earlier in the year for 2023 and so far, unemployment is still lower. in other words, labor market is hotter. real gdp is growing much faster. look at these two m

investors bracing for the speech tomorrow by chair powell as they seek clues about the path ahead forjim, we have bullard on the tape today, says this economic pickup might delay the fed's hope for some disinflation. >> well, look, bullard has been dead right ever since he learned his lesson, say, in the 2015-2016 period the economy accelerated. and i don't want to necessarily just have people just go to one particular call, but if you go to the call for snowflake, with frank slootman, he will tell you about the rather dramatic acceleration that occurred in the economy. now, their client list pretty much includes everyone, whether it be retail, whether it's -- it be health care, a lot of health care, which is very interesting, manufacturing, and it was just like something went off. like a bell went off, which just said, you know what? we're nervous. we're not nervous anymore. and i think that frank, in his own way, because frank is a very tough guy, really made you realize that even from the time i interviewed him when i was in santa barbara for our ceo council, things have changed th

the fed chair powell said rates could go hightory combat inflation, but then the frowns turned upside down when the chair later cited, quote, especially robust consumer spending and early signs of a recovery in the housing market. okay, but, where does that really leave us, carter worth? how do we make sense of it? put a trade in. show us some charts. >> the conclusion was it was full today but almost 1% and then down 1% at the close. on the week before we look at the charts, that's the thing, the dow was down on the week. the transportation average was down. the russell 2000 was down on the week. thes&p up. the mid cap unch. we have a well-developed topping formation and let's look at that not only in thebseveral aggregates. march to present to the high, the market is up 20%. but it has this minor reversal known as a head and shoulders. let's look at the next aggregate. we have the same chart, the nasdaq 100, you can't tell them apart. the s&p and nasdaq, let's keep going. you'll see instance after instance, this is the sector, right, that depicts all industrials, xli, it's the same

i think chair powell has said we really do not know.rom your own -- from him on r-star it is a good debate, but you cannot make too much of it because the estimates are so uncertain. i do think it matters because people want to have some idea of where they think they are going in the medium term. mike: that is my next question, where do you think we are going in the medium term? some people think the new york fed president, r-star in the neutral rate interest, let's put it that way is going to be somewhere that it was prior to the pandemic. others think we move into a new regime and we will be back to the 1990's version of interest rates and growth rates and inflation rate. writer you think we come out of the pandemic? jim: yeah, i think the probabilities are we are in a new regime that would be high interest rate. it would be more like the 90's down we are used to in the last two decades. the reason i say that is inflation is above target today. more inflation is likely to be sticky and come down rather slowly. the rule of thumb would

i heard fed chair jay powell say cuts would be years away.area where markets really disagree with the fed. guy: absolutely. you had that from neel kashkari as well in the last 24 hours. we are about to get the fed minutes from the last meeting, abigail, what will they tell us? 2:00 p.m. eastern, i think. economists are working closely for disagreement among policymakers. how much divergence will we see? matt, the key question, how many of the members are in camp neel kashkari? how many are in pause mode? what do we think the breakdown really looks like? matt: that's the key question. we are in a light period for fed speak at the moment. a lot of people are on summer vacation. you had people come out, notably pat harker yesterday coming out saying we don't need to raise rates anymore. we had others like the fed governor michelle bowman saying we do need to do more hikes. so they are famous for the different descriptors they use. many or most officials thought this or that. we will be king in first and foremost today on the line that may be fle

chair powell signaled this morning wait and see what impact the rate increases we've already had arewe don't think that the data will be any different than that and we'll see continued strength in employment and continue to moderation in pce and probably not much change on the construction versus what we've been seeing. liz: nancy, thanks. like to have you on. nancy. we're looking at a closing well about ten seconds away and the bulls came out in full force for this friday and they did not erase yesterday's losses for the dow which had fallen 373 points and the dow right now up 246 and we've got s&p up 27. market this is week, the dow will not close to the upside for the week and s&p and nasdaq in the green and see you monday. larra david hello, folks and welcome to a special edition of kudlow

>> certainly, we believe chair powell is going to be focused on maintaining option knowledge he and you'vee to date that they are data depended and really committed to the fight against inflation and in doing so they really want to continue to monitor for more slowdown before making pronounced moves. we really see was going to be happening in jackson hole is a continuation of the trend where again he's going to be stressing the commitment to combating the price pressures that again waiting to see how the additional data points before the september meeting will play out again before deciding whether going to move. cheryl: i have tiana lowe doescher onset has a question. >> last year the story was how high do rates go, how fast will they go there, this year i'm gathering about how long they'll say hi, we seen investors walk back to expectations of rate hikes beginning in the beginning of next year to downgrading to the end of next year, what should we be listening to take esn north of 5% through next year, working to get cuts at the beginning of next year, what should be the buzzwords we sho

this is about a minute and a half of chair powell. [video clip] paola: it has been my view consistently that we do have a shot. my base case is we will be able to achieve inflation moving back down to our target without the significant downturn that results in high levels of job losses that we have seen in some past instances, many past instances of tightening that look like ours. that has been my view that that is true. i think that is consistent with what i see today. but it is a long way from assured. we have a lot left to go to see that happen. the staff now has a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year in the forecast, but given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting for reception. i just want to note, the staff produces its own forecast which is independent of the forecasts which we as fomc participants produce. having an independent staff forecast as well as the individual participant forecast, is really the strength of our process. there's just a lot of i think constructive divers

will it mean anything for fed chair jay powell? probably no. he takes the view that we say is less possible if he takes the recommendations. jonathan: a lot of people would say that. it will be full of fed speak this week, kicking off later this week, global allocation fund portfolio manager at blackrock. for you and the team, is it a buy? >> you probably can look back six or 12 months from now and say this is a decent report but i don't think it chases. we are moderately underweight duration in our multi-asset funds and we are getting to a point where you are getting value back. but the long end his heart and the reason, the 10 year further out, is the question about how much you should get paid to own long-distance bonds and environments where unplayed -- inflation uncertainty is much higher, compared to five years ago. people have been demanding the higher rate to go further on the curve and that could go higher still. jonathan: pandemic low, 31 basis points on the 10 year. if i promised you 400 basis points more than that, you wouldn't have

investors very much waiting chair powell's speech this week.he japanese yen very little changed against the u.s. dollar. we are watching jgb's because the 10 year yield has risen past the .6% level and the korean yuan has also weekend. a little bit of pressure for the kiwi because of everything that is happening in china. paul: let's take a look at how we are shaping up for the asian open. in australia, futures pointing higher by a quarter 1%. not a lot of change for nikkei futures. plenty to watch when we start trading in sydney. bhp pretty much missing on all estimates with full-year results. plenty more to come on daybreak: asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: take a look at schwab for stocks after hours. a little pressure. let's get details from vonnie quinn. more belt cutting measures. >> exactly. the stock is down 29% this year. we will get to reasons why but it is a way to appease investors. the statement from the spokesperson at schwab saying schwab is taken a series of actions aimed at removing costs and complexity from the firm and that

what to expect from chair powell as yields continue to soar.rs. and as we break down the fed, we're also going to look at the impact they've had on businesses. we'll talk to the ceo of brinker international, big restaurant chain. what is chiles seeing on the inflation front? >> baby back ribs, that's what i always think of. let's get a check on the markets where the s&p is up 18 points. in light of those record highs that tyler mentioned the nasdaq is up 1.25% today. go figure.

>> i think markets didn't learn a lot from chair powell last week in jackson hole. he re-stated the overall case. they had an economy slowing. within that assessment of the economy was his most hawkish statement. talking about consumer spending in the recent months having been particularly robust and that sets off alarm bells. they are worried that strong spending is going to keep inflation up. on the other side of it, he wants to be balanced here. he said financial conditions have been tightened a bit. importantly, he said most of the estimates they used say there is a lot of tightening in the pipeline. they are waiting for some of the lag effects to come through and have an impact on inflation. i really think what he set up was to punt the next meeting on september 20th and look for november 1st. they have three more pce readings between now and then, mike. >> there is a bit of breathing room where the markets can sort out each bit of information that comes through. i guess the emphasis on powell on pce inflation and in services outside of housing. he is focused o

fed chair jay powell will speak at jackson hole, and we will have full coverage of that speech, as we have been previewing here on bloomberg tv. we have all the stories you need to know, today the lead on jackson hole, trump's surrender, and u.k. consumer confidence rebounding in august. you can find those stories and more on your terminal. coming up, it is all about jackson hole. waiting for jay powell's speech. we will discuss that, next. we even have some taylor swift for you. and do not miss our interview with christine lagarde at 9:00 p.m. london time, 4:00 p.m. new york time. this is bloomberg. ♪ lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." 6:17 a.m. here in london. traders away jay powell's jackson hole speech for clues on the rate outlook. i'm joined by our mliv strategist, mark renfield, what are you expecting? mark: as you have been discussing earlier, jerome powell will not persuade people that rate cuts are coming anytime. he wants to keep people sure that rate hikes will stay higher for longer. he will not want to give that away. the picture is completely differen

we are waiting for chair powell to speak at jackson hole later this week.il, not a lot of movement. below $80 a barrel now. we are seeing more signs of supplies rebounding and a lot of concerns about demand in china. for more, let's bring in our cross as it reporter, emily graffeo -- cross asset reporter, emily graffeo. we had nvidia falling today after this massive rally in the broader textbased. >> they were following but they did hit an all-time high. they fell from that level. it seems like right now, the stock market is all focused on their earnings. perhaps there is a lack of other earnings news for the equity market. we have in the s&p 500, up over 200% this year. analysts are open targets. . even when you look at the options market for nvidia, investors are paying a premium for nvidia to keep moving up higher in their stock. it's the only stock for which the largest 10 companies in the s&p 500 -- it is the only stock the prices of call options which are bullish options are more expensive than put options which are bearish. perhaps a sign that invest

. >> okay, you need jay powell, the fed chair, and his panel to be your friend from here on out, don't you? in terms of jackson hole, a few days from now, what's the risk? the risk is that he's more hawkish than the market is willing to accept, right? >> i think more recently there's been an interesting conversation that's taking place, rather than about the no landing fierce, it's migrated into a conversation about our star, so what is in today's economy a neutral real rate. and i think that's where there's an spec tag there could be interesting academic papers published at jackson hole. we'll be reading those on friday and over the weekend. and really it's about why our star could be higher. is it because we've gotten better news on productivity? that's a good thing for stocks. how high has that gone up, from 50 basis points real rates to 200? that seems very sudden. we really think it's just marginally higher. that's an environment that stocks can do quite well. >> what if we thought what was the neutral rate was a good place to be, the stronger economic growth that you rightfully c

so chair powell has a history of making news, sometimes intentionally, sometimes inadvertently. what do you think he'll do tomorrow and should we stand by for news or something less than that >> the history of jackson hole there have been times the fed chair at the time made big news, recharting the path for monetary policy everyone had to pay attention to that is not always the case, and i think right now if we think about where the fed is, where the internal debates are going, they are trying to sort out just how far they have to go. now you can hear the debate shifting from the peak to how long they will hold rates at the peak that says to me powell, if he thinks about risk/reward, he has to keep markets believing that if things turn out worse than they expect, they'll hike some more. boy, it's not really clear, especially the last year and a half, how many times they've said things and had to reverse course, that he wants to be overly explicit about the policy choices. i think it's about tone that we'll keep at this job until it's done. i don't know he will want to lay down

. >> a lot will depend on what chair powell decides to do. >> commentary out of jackson hole. >> it willome down to powell to be on message. >> an important balance tech. >> he will probably recognize some of the progress we've made on inflation. >> that's a great thing for the fed. >> dataflow since the july fomc has been strong. >> they can declare premature victory. >> i don't think we are going to hear a big change in narrative. >> reiterate that they can stay higher for longer. >> skews slightly more hawkish. >> keep the optionality open. >> there's nothing else we can say at the moment until we get more data. >> those are some of the guests we've had speaking on what to expect. a lot to happen until that happens. what shapes markets this week. joining us now is sarah, cleo capital managing director. what's going to move. what's the big thing this week? sarah: i think this is about arm. another week of ai. but i think that the rumors swan filing that supposed to become public i think they will do it if they do it this week. because if nvidia does not, and where we want them to they

as far as jackson hole at least things i heard, read sounds like chair powell is reinforcing what heinforcing allowing himself leeway i think trying to recommit to the fact that they are determined to get inflation back down to 2%, they will do what it takes to get there. so we will see what that brings back next couple fed sneekts what do you think keith you've got incredible vantage point in terms of access to so much data consumer credit card data as well as look at how bits are doing. i mean looking ahead to second read of the second quarter gdp comes out wednesday, then, of course, we will get the fed preferred read on inflation, if august pce report thursday but keith i want to see what you are looking at based on all of the data that you see in terms of of how he slow things have become. >> a things definitely slowing down maria. our economists have actually moved off their original forecast of recession in have early part or of 2024, are now looking for soft landing soft landing means going to grow below trend i think growth rates about 1%, half of one percent during most 202

last year chair powell underscored we are not done with rate hikes. i am paraphrasing. this is what people are bracing for now. to get more clues especially after mixed readings on inflation. economics and policy editor kathleen hayes there. let's turn to china where the economic recovery is being weighted down by a worsening property slump. pressures are mounting on the pboc to ease monetary policy. july's activity data is due tuesday and likely to show little sign of a rebound in growth. with only moderate expected in industrial output, retail sales, and fixed asset investment. property investment probably continued to shrink amid mere of a possible default. the country suspended trading in nearly a dozen onshore bonds starting monday after announcing it expects a loss of $7.6 billion first half of the year. the country gardens liquidity crunch is adding to concerns about the potential drag the industry will have on growth. shery: credit demand in china has been week. we are seeing the latest data well below economists' forecasts in july raising the risk of prolonged