fed chair powell: good afternoon. my colleagues and i remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the american people. as we approach the end of the year, it is natural to look back on the progress that has been made toward our dual mandate objectives. inflation has eased from its highs. and this has come without the -- without a significant increase in unemployment. that's very good news. but inflation is still too high. ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured. and the path forward is uncertain. as we look ahead to next year, i want to assure the american people that we are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2% goal. restoring price stability is essential to achieve sustainable -- to achieve a sustained period of sustainable market conditions that benefit all. since early last year, the fomc has significantly tightened the stance of monetary policy. we have raised our policy interest rate by 5.25 percentage points and have continued to reduce

fed chair powell: thank you. so, specifically on "any," we do say in determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate, we added the word "any" as an acknowledgment that we are likely at or near the peak rate for this cycle. participants did not write down additional hikes that we believe are likely. so, that's why we wrote it down. but participants also didn't want to take the possibility of further hikes off the table, so that's really what we were thinking. >> steve, -- >> chairman powell, steve, cnbc, happy holidays, mr. chairman. the fed governor, chris wilder, -- chris waller said if inflation continues to fall, the fed the next several months could be cutting interest rates. i wonder if you could comment on whether you agree with fed governor waller on that. that the fed would become more restrictive if it wouldn't cut rates if inflation fell. thanks. fed chair powell: i will try to answer your question more broadly. the we we are looking at it is really this. when we started

chair powell: yes. so, the central banks meet six times per year in switzerland, just the central banks, not the elected governments, not the finance ministries. that was not part of my world before i was chair. we do not issue communiques. we just go there for three days and a talk about what is going on in economies around the world. there are crosscutting issues we deal with like how is inflation going? all the things that matter for the economy. what is happening with monetary policy. that is enormously informative. as you pointed out, nothing proves how global the economy is better than the pandemic. it is global. during the pandemic, i was often more than once a day with the heads of other major central banks by phone. we were the only ones at the time of the global financial crisis 15 years ago when there was plenty of room to cut interest rates. that was not the case. that was the only one far enough above zero or we could meaningfully cut it and we did. major central banks were always talking a

chair powell: the fed, i stepped into a role.he fed does so many things well and right in the people i succeed were such heroes and so successful, so good at what they did. when i think of myself in that way, i am a relatively informal person. i really do think of getting two good decisions, part of it is having a lot of smart people around you, like governor cook. hearing a bunch of different views and a little bit crowdsourcing, thinking about issues and coming to a decision after that, that is a comfortable decision. that requires you to hear what people are saying and understand their argument. that comes naturally. i felt it was important that we substantially increase our outreach to congress, which has oversight. it is congress that has oversight over the fed. we spent much more time than we used to. alix: you have been listening to federal chair powell at a fireside chat in atlanta. i'm interested in how he addresses this issue. he talks, markets try to thread the needle between we are on hold, we are done. question is wh

fed chair powell signaling policy pitted. his definition tone sending 10-year gilts to five year lows and extending the credit rally with spreads at a two month low. the fed igniting the pivot party. >> it is a pivot party and we are all invited. >>. >> a bit of>> a pivot gadget that the fed is done raising rates for now -- >> we can expect rate cuts at some point. >> we were surprised by the dovish tone powell struck. >> powell's dovish comments. >> this is the first time he gave a nod to the trajectory of inflation and it is easing. >> a victory lap because inflation is moving down. >> what chair powell gave us was an early christmas gift. >> we got an early holiday gift. >> that felt like santa claus came to town. >> a rally in the bond market. >> we should be good for the bond market. >> we are entering next year with a growing sense of optimism. vonnie: john williams, the new york fed president did try to pour some cold water on the pivot, but markets are still pressing in next year. market pricing in 5.5 cuts. we will s

chair powell is acutely aware of that.t is why when you look at the 19 dots underpinning the one dot we all focus on, 18 of them are more hawkish. the message today was dovish, but i think the market has probably got a bit carried away in the short-term. the fed is still saying a more hawkish message relative to where the market has moved to in the last several hours. haidi: for all the rally we see continued in the u.s. it is the market that is looking very short of breath, given how much we focus on the magnificent seven this year. outside of the u.s., who do you see as the biggest beneficiaries of an easing fed and some of the pressure taken off of asia and potentially emerging markets too? ben: i think that is a key point. i think a lot of emerging-market central banks naturally take their lead from their big brother the fed. with the fed now having signaled the discussion now is on the pace of cutting, hiking is very likely done. i think that will be an encouraging signal for a lot of central banks across the emerging

from 1997 to 2005 chair powell was a part of carlisle group. he served assistant secretary of the u.s. department of treasury under president george h. w. bush with the responsibility for policy on financial institutions, treasury debt market and other related areas. prior to joining the bush administration chairman powell worked as a lawyer and investment banker in new york city. in additionn to serve as corporate boards he has served on the boards of charitable and educational institutions including the center for finance at princeton university and chairman powell was born in february 1953 in washington, d.c. he received a bachelor's in 1975 and earned law degree from georgetown university in 1979. gail began serving as 11 president on july 1st, 2022, the president gail served as president and ceo of the chicago community trust from october 2017 to june 2022. under her leadership the trust adopted a new strategic focus on closing the racial wealth gap in the chicago region. for almost a. decade president gail served as president and ceo of c

get headlines from chair let's make sure we he those here. jerome powell participating at a fireside chat at spellman college in georgia. o soon to speculate when the fed will cut rates. headlines.two of the big powell also saying the fed is, quote, prepared to tighten further if appropriate. we'll take you live to the q&a portion of that chat witthe fed chair ent doestart so, sa, we dn'think was going necessarily selout and sait's time to cut res. always preservinsome two-way optionality there. securely positioned.e if we're govern governoraller was saying a good spot. i guess given we have a meeting in a week and a half, they'll come out with a new outlook. it's more about n't get too ahead of yourself. the market has gone on to price of next year. n the first part >> i think it's exactly what you might expect from powell. it's not doing much to move the mark one way or the other because he's saying on one hand, we don't know necessarily we're done, we're stl watching the data and inflation a little higher. on the other, things are looking good and there

chair powell will have to try to balance those two issues in his discussion today.t will be complicated by the fact that the new summary of economic projections comes out they are not going to deliver a hike that was previously put in there. even despite that we are not convinced the fomc wants to ease financial conditions dramatically, although they might not want to tighten dramatically either. scarlet: the fomc is seen holding rates unchanged for the third straight meeting. if two straight holds is equivalent to a pause, what does three straight holds signal to the market? does that mean and of cycle? -- end of cycle? tiffany: the fed's job has been tricky. they wanted to ultimately signal that they will be on hold without the market pulling forward their rate cuts as markets do because they are forward-looking and without significantly easing financial conditions. the communication style they have used the help that is basically to say we think we are done for now but we always have the option. economic data and the economy has been strong. we could have to hike

you can see other members pulling back from chair powell's narrative last week.ffect will be on the x market. dollar euro under pressure down to tenths of 1%. the biggest move is the aussie dollar. your biggest bloomberg dollar index contributor because there is rba federal reserve minutes that are talking about the fact that people wanted to hike but they ended up holding. how much pressure do you see if the world cuts rates? interesting dynamic. rent trading at 79. our top story of today's session in london we get the latest data in less than half an hour. the prime minister pledged to cut inflation and half by the end of the year so how has he done? joined by lizzy burden all over the story. it does not feel like he is doing a great job. >> we started the year over 10% but really it's interesting to ask whether we will get to the 2% target by the time of an election because the consensus is to .6% by quarter to we won't get day top until mid-may and that's probably too late for the election or does not leave them time to campaign. the expectation is for a drop

fed chair powell: good afternoon. >> good afternoon. my colleagues in the remain squarely focused on their dual mandate to promote maximum employment andic stable prices r the american people. as we approach the end of the year, it's natural to look back on progress that has been made toward our dual mandate objectives. inflation is eased fromhi its highs and this is come without significant increase in unemployment rate that's very good news. inflation is still too high. ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured. in the path forward is uncertain. as we look ahead to next year i want to assure the american people that we are fully committed to returning inflation to her 2% goal. we are still in price stability and it's essential to achieve a strong labor market conditions to benefit all. since early last year the fomc has significantly tighten the stance of monetary policy to raise their answer rate by five and one quarter percentage point and continue to reduce their securities holdings at risk space. our actions that move th

let's get final thoughts as we countdown to fed chair powells conference.'s get the market action. it was quiet earlier but not so quiet now. not a huge rally but a sharp one as the dow has jumped 200 points after the fed the move and interest rates have dropped. the 10 year by almost 10 basis points. what is the significance of that and do you expect the fed chair to push back on that at all? >> i think he will try to push back a little bit. if you look at the summary of economic projections, they say it could be between 4.5 and 4.75 by the end of next year. that implies three rate cuts even if that's right, that could be june, september and december we have a full six months based on the sep before we have to think about cutting rates. i think he will try to push back and say right now were not sure what done with rate hikes and were not sure we were there and inflation it's too early to say. he will push back on this even though this was a relatively good statement and the markets are responding. >> do you think he's theoretically on board with the idea

haidi: fed chair powell pushing back against expectations. we take a look at the week. south.dp will be on watch. the bank is expected to hold. third quarter gdp data. that is your week ahead. shery: the next guest favors small and mid-caps. great to have you with us. >> people are forecasting they should catch up and pray. that's the opportunity i see. >> i will not forget that it was a year ago they thought they'd be cutting rates in september. they have not been perfect, they been very good. we should give the fed a lot of credit and chair powell is really determined to keep inflation down. does not want to repeat the 1970's. he will probably over tighten and i think that's the risk, this inflation number can't seem to get to the target. they have to be more restrictive. >> what do you make? >> they are shopping, people are spending money. how much longer can this last? it's a nice statistic to look at , last year was not so much so that's good for stock investors. we don't abandon technology, you have to ride the wave of generative ai and these mega cap companies are so we

haidi: what do you make of the decision yesterday and chair powell's commentary? it was taken as dovish by the markets. going into this, we thought it would be a hawkish hold in order to not let the markets get ahead of themselves. what happened? >> the story in some ways is simple. inflation has come down faster than anticipated. that put pressure on the fed to adjust policy to reflect the reality. throughout the year, the fed was nursing residual doubt about whether inflation was coming down sustainably. that doubt is starting to dissipate. we are starting to see the fed act. it's ahead of other central banks. it's reflecting the fact the inflation story domestically has been good. shery ahn: at the same time, the labor market seems resilient. retail numbers surprising upside. is all of this ingredients for a soft landing? >> it is too early to tell. we need to take powell at his word. the best way to predict future is to manufacture it. the fed is trying to manufacture a soft landing through a two-stage process. one, easing monetary policy to reflect the slowdo

chair powell was dovish heading into 2024.drawing corollaries between the fact that cutting rates in an election year is not necessarily something we have not seen before. lisa: we have talked about that. is there a canoe incidents -- is there a coincidence? the issue i have stemming from that back-and-forth is that we have not heard president biden be able to celebrate an economy that looks like it is achieving what nobody thought it could, and this is the perennial frustration we are increasingly seeing, why are you not seeing -- not giving us a victory lap? what is going on? you cannot just discount people's feelings and say they are not valid. damian: it is difficult to tell what the majority of americans are even thinking on these topics, so there in lies the rub. lisa: just in terms of the level inflation coming. next, earl on fixed income. this he still see higher yields from here? ♪ an ever-changing landscape comes with challenges. from our vantage point, we see opportunities. as a top-ten real estate manager, we harne

chair powell must feel good about this. his goal is not to rock any boats and just to say we're on track and everything is moving in the right direction. >> i guess the million dollar question for you, do you think that they should avoid further tightening? do they have to cut rates pretty soon here the way inflation is going? >> i don't think so. certainly not raise rates. i don't see any reason why you would do that in the context of everything i just said. but the question is, at what point do you lower rates? i think they're going to wait until they see that the forecast about inflation coming to target is right. that probably won't be until next late spring, summer, and once they come to that conclusion, they'll start to lower rates. and it's an election year. i suspect they would rather prefer not to move rates in any direction. once they do that, they risk getting politicized and wrapped up in what's going to be a pretty i think uncomfortable election process. so i think they would air on the side of doing nothing, a

you can see, chair powell, wrapping up his news conference. in what can really only be called doveish language from the statement. and from the fed chair himself. as a result of that, stocks are rallying. want you to take a look here. the dow, a new record high, was trading above 37,000 for the first time ever. stocks are higher and sharply so across the board. yields are going the opposite direction. look at the 10-year note yield. 4.04. just an extraordinary bit of events there. they're proceeding carefully. they're seeing what they wanted to see, in terms of inflation coming down. you mentioned your own estimates of pce coming close to target. stocks a little more on that. he said the fed is quote likely at or near the peak of that rate cycle. stocks up a little more on that. bob pisani all calling today. our own steve liesman joining us saying the feds took a step toward the market rather than the other way around. >> jeffrey, welcome back for our final visit of the year. i'm glad you're with us today. >> we made it all the way to december,

here is what fed chair powell said earlier today. chair powell: the strong actions we have taken have moved our policy rate up and well into restrictive territory, by which we mean tight monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity than inflation. monetary policy is thought to affect economic conditions with a lag in the full effects of tightening have not yet been felt. jon: we want to bring in fs investments chief u.s. economist lara rhame. powell also saying it would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance. the caveat is still there. overall, what did you take away from the message today? lara: powell's message, i think, is pretty clear. the markets have priced in over four rate cuts next year and they have moved up that timing to start the first quarter. i think for the fed that probably felt like a quick about-face considering as recently as september the dot plot implied another rate hike this quarter. i thing they are backing off that last rate hike

given what we are seeing what we saw from the dot plot and what chair powell has been saying, we willrobably see about four rate cuts next year. that is as of today or december and things could change depending on the data. as you all know, everyone is data-dependent and everyone is looking at the totality of the data so we will see how things play out but we are looking for about 100 basis points of rate cut next year. vonnie: the current estimate from the fed is 2.6% inflation. if we get core pce data that comes in lower than the fed anticipates, does that put pressure on the fed to lower in march? >> it would definitely add pressure. you will need more than a couple of months of better inflation data. whether or not it will be three or five cuts before we can start penciling in the rate cuts. the discussion was huge and the fact that they admitted and are talking about it. i think it will take a few months before we start officially calling for it but we will be more than just inflation. it will also have to be slower economic growth but not just slamming on the grip -- on the brak

it is worth taking a listen to what fed chair powell had to say. chair powell: it would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance or speculate on one policy might ease. we are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so. sonali: joining us now is jamie patton of tcw group and blake gwinn of rbc capital. when you listen to powell today what was new, if anything? jamie: nothing was new. what is new is the market expects to hear new things. governor waller's comments this week were played up a lot in the markets. the markets started pricing in the chance of a cut as soon as march and our view is that powell reiterated most exactly what he said at the. . november press conference he still has a strong bias to continue fighting inflation. this feeds into the view that the fed is likely to keep rates too high for too long. powell reiterated today that he is not entirely confident that the fed has done enough or held rates high enough for long enough to get inflation down to

so neither trump for biden can try to oust chair powell at least do it easily without the say-so of the supreme court of the united states. by the way, as i said, the federal reserve board can opt to keep powell in place. very high bar for any president regardless of party to believe a sitting chair. >> edward: the term of the chairman comes up. i want to ask you about prices. we've seen inflation. we've seen prices go up 17.7% in the last three years or so. you know, inflation is coming back down. prices are not coming back down. that is what people are feeling on main street. when do you think or do you think prices can ever get back to where they were before the pandemic? >> look, i do a deep dive every month on pricing. all i can tell you is the rate of inflation most definitely down. everything that people are buying prices are up except the good news energy prices have come down. whether it's the supermarket or rent or homes or insurance, you name it, it is just way up there. i think that is the main reason why the poll numbers are so bad. people vote with their wallets. they thin

. >> we are focused on the question in front of us which is what chair powell said.we have monetary policy to restrictive stance in der to ensures the inflation comes backs down to 2%? >>> from christmas giving onhe enemy front with silverlake pushing on the listing and loing to vodafone to consolidate business. >>> and mersk suspend routes following a series of cargo liners by e houthi group. >>> and calling for a cease-fire in gaza as pressure builds with the deaths of three hostages over the weekend. >>> good morning. welcome to "street signs." it is the penultimate trading week of the year before we wrap up for the year. it is not, yet, too soon to call it on data. we have just got some numbers coming in from germany. let me bring those to you. we are looking at the german ifo data. this is the reflection of business morale. that headline has fallen for december. climate index at 86.4. that is below the consensus forecast of 87.8. let me give you further detail on conditions which have come in lower than consensus at 88.5. the forecast of 89.7. the expectation in

>> right. >> we will get cpi, just as chair powell is walking into the meeting. >> right. right. i think it will be somewhat benign, and there will be the expectation of the core to be a little higher than anticipate, and ppi, the continued inflation there. i think it's a important fed meeting in the sense that he needs to thread the needle and keep the markets calm, and there will be the same rhetoric we have seen over the last couple meetings. >> jimmy, optimism over the fed is one reason we have rallied. that has been the game. inflation started to come down, and yields plunged and the market embraced the idea that the fed is done and will probably hike as their next move, and the broadening rally is another reason why we are at where we are at, and the s&p, a 52-week high, and it's above 4,600, and the equal weight is up 7.5%, and the s&p up 4.5%. i can go through the other sectors, the lagging sectors, like real estate and industrials have done well over a 1 month period of time. >> small caps are up about six or 7%, and a lot of that is in the last month or two. what was a

get headlines from chair let's make sure we he those here. jerome powellill cut rates. those are two of the big

that's where fed chair powell and others have to be super careful with what they communicate and howmmunicate because the market is looking for any signal that cuts are coming sooner than priced. we don't think there's going to be a policy rate move today. our thought is they won't cut rates until june. to get there, they'll have to reprice them. part of what i think powell's strategy is going to be is to try to say, look, we didn't hike rates today. inflation is coming down, but it's not at our target. it's not anywhere near our target. in fact, if anything, we need a little more conviction that it's going to come down to our target. so to try to push back a little bit that rate cuts are imminent. i document think he wants to talk specifically about dates because that would be more precision than he actually has. i think he wants to strike that confident tone, the slightly hawkish lean. >> they don't want to get into any more detail. we're seeing a change in conviction at least from the market, the believe that we're going to see a lot of cuts next year, the market rethinking the cu

as chair powell said, there is a potential risk of a recession that is certainly not our base case.s the fact that the recession was a rolling recession. we saw contraction in manufacturing and on a backward looking, 12 months from an early standpoint, we have seen a profit recession with the decline of 6%. it did not happen at the same time. i think different parts of the economy and the market were impacted at different times, so the tightening has come through, it just has not shown itself and what people would label a traditional recession, but rather a rolling one. alix: do you trust the fed? it feels like team transitory was right. core inflation is still high and the fed did not address that yesterday. how closely do you have to pay attention when it feels like the fed changed course in a few weeks? kristin: we have to look at the data and look at the differences we have seen, there seems to be more consensus from the fed in terms of where people landed in terms of the overall dot plot. a big thing we are watching here is inflation and whether there is a trajectory in looking

fed chair jerome powell answering reporter's questions. let's go back there live. >> bloomburg television radio. mr. chairman, you were raising rates to fight inflation and said earlier the full effects of the tightening cycle have not yet been felt. how will you decide when to cut rates and how will you ensure you're not behind the curve there? >> so we're aware of the risk that we would hang on too long. that's a risk and we're very focused on not making that mistake, and we do regard the two -- you know, we've come back into a better balance between the risk of overdoing it and risk of underdoing it. not only that, we were able to focus hard on the price stability mandate and getting back to the price where you do when you're far from one of the two mandates and now getting back to where both mandates are important and they're more in balance now too. we'll be very much keeping that in mind as we make policy going forward. the things we'll be looking at i've already described. we're obviously looking hard at what's happening with demand

i think chair powell thinks that also though i'm not inside his head and i can't be sure. bit worried, not, you know -- you know, not catatonic about it. the market getting too hyped up about rate hikes soon -- sorry, rate cuts. there will be cuts but not right away. >> i think goldman's, the title of their report this week coming out of cpi was sooner but not soon. meaning they push forward their expectation for the first cut to q3 they were in q4. does that rhyme with your view right now? >> yeah. pretty much, i don't know q3, q4, second half of the year. i don't see -- i'd be surprised -- let me backtrack. to get cuts in the first half of the year, the economy would start to -- would have to start looking sour. maybe that will happen. i don't think it'll happen. i don't think the fed thinks it'll happen but it's a possibility. but short of that, i doubt we're going to see rate cuts in the first half of the year. >> why don't you think the economy will go sour in the first half of the year? >> there are no signs of it yet. occasionally you get a surprise but usually ther

way to achieving their goal but they haven't achieved yet and that's the likely language that chair powelll use. does he want to push back against the early rate cuts that are being priced in the market? i think he would like to an i think there are some members that would like to but at the same time, will the market believe him when he says we will not be cutting interest rates until the job is done? it still far away from having the job completely finished. guy: we need to get to 2%. how convinced, what does the data need to show is to convince the fed is going to cheap what it set out to do to bring his down on a sustainable basis? >> jay powell said it in one of his talks that it's going to be a bumpy process, this disinflation. we know that so the core services and housing was not that great and it rose but not with the fed wanted. some of this is largely in line but some of it is not welcome. i think the fed knows it will go this way. if you look at the six-month average, it tipped below 3% on the main cpi. they are getting some of what they want and they know it will take time. it'

does she echo what we heard from fed chair powell. it's become apparent with the economic data the disinflation is fully underway. let's watch this and i'm curious about the euro and its response. november retail sales will be important. to your question about what the fed knows that we don't. fed chair powell did not really engage in much potential pushback to anything he was putting out there. if we start to see a real deterioration in retail sales does that point to something different. would you like to continue? tom: a nominal statistic, david rosenberg in the last hour tweeted out about the focus on nominal gdp. did he know those numbers yesterday? i do not know. lisa: i think the earnings of a lot of companies are interesting. we talk about magnificent seven but costco shares her up. lennar up as well. jonathan: joining us is the international cio within the global fixed income currency committee group at j.p. morgan asset management. what changed for the fed chair in two weeks? what changed for you? >> i think jerome powell is

we did not hear chair powell in the news conference.hat we heard from christine lagarde is this feeling the need to stick with it, the feeling they are not thinking about rate cuts, the feeling they are not the federal reserve. no one was listening to her because jay powell set the tone and the data is not there to support an economy that can withstand date -- that can withstand rates at this level. jonathan: german business expectations worsening, dampening hopes of a recovery. a gauge of expectations fell from the previous month. analysts had been expecting an uptick. put that together with the pmi's on friday, not a great picture of the european economy. lisa: it is the biggest economy in the region so if it is having trouble you have an issue. can you get the same kind of commitment hold a great sigh, especially when inflation is coming in faster in europe. the services sector is not seeing the same kind of inflation that is inflecting upward. there is a real question about how sticky this is and how much they will be able to deal w

stocks picking up where they left off following chair powell's presser. energy financials among the best sectors. investors looking outside of mega tech. looking at the russell 2000. it surging again and that's after yesterday's big jump. rates are a big story today. the tenure dipping below 4% on the idea of flurry of rate cuts are coming next year. and that takes us to our talk of the tape. whether it's time to do your own pivot out of large-cap growth stocks and into other areas of the market that have lagged. let's ask anastasia amoroso. nice to see you again. did the goalpost move yesterday for this market? what you think? >> yes. i think yesterday was a game changer. what we heard from fed chair powell's is not about the economy or financial conditions or the jobs market. it's about inflation and inflation have been coming down pretty far and fast and if are at a point where inflation is 2.7% by march, and interest rates are still at 5.5%, that's a big gap the fed can do something about. what we've been doing for the past two years is thinking rates

tone than his peers we have heard from in the last few days after the fomc statement and after chair powell doubled down on this dovish rhetoric. take a look at crude prices, continuing to be under pressure. .7%, after we saw that buildup in stock and record production. that has offset risks coming from the disruptions in the red sea. and treasuries rallied in the new york session. we really had that sparked by 10-year gilts that let the global bond rally given that we saw that slow down in u.k. inflation. it is really all about the data, isn't it? because we are also trying to digest consumer confidence numbers. it seems americans are really feeling good. we are seeing that there consumer confidence rose by the most since early 2021. they seem to be confident despite the fact that they are having concerns about a potential recession. of course it is not just consumer confidence we are watching. we will get more indications in the next few days with thursday's gdp print, personal consumption expenditures, and perhaps a little bit more data and insight from the university of michigan's consu

charles: we'll get back to that point, maybe a week or so ago chair powell he read from the script andhe street interpreted it exactly the way he didn't want them to. that is the day we had the big rally. we didn't look back since. weapon had series of those things happening. there was the big event in wyoming where he dropped the hammer on us. could powell become frustrated with the fact that the street is not listening to him? >> as long as he doesn't say autopilot we'll be okay. the key here, i think the theme is broadening. moving forward buy the dips but where do you buy the dips? i love the chart you put up with the "magnificent seven" down and rest of the market up. large caps trading 18.9 times forward. mid-caps, small caps 13.2 times forward earnings. we look for outperformance in 2024 mid to relative basis. charles: i bring you on the show you have few ideas that others do. lot of them are gutsy. vf corp. this chart from 2021 this bad boy is like ah mad to do sound eve effects for this one. i see key moving averages, maybe formed support here but you like fundamental. >> they

jonathan: do you think fed chair powell made a mistake? committee and i think sometimes shares can distance themselves and i think he was embracing the baseline view. there is a risk case as well and some of the pushback is to remind folks about those other scenarios. jonathan: mary -- lisa: mary daly yesterday said that even if the fed cuts rates three times that the benchmark rate will still be quite restrictive even in that samaritan -- even in that scenario. we have to be forward-looking and make sure that we do not give people price stability but takeaway jobs. is this a new emphasis? rich: i think at the margin it is. inflation was so high for so long that the fed had a single mandate. we have to get inflation lower. the fed has a dual mandate. but i do think and i worked closely with mary and i am a big fan. i think the issue is that the committee itself emphasizes financial conditions. they made an appearance in the november statement and reappeared in december. it is true that one element is the real funds rate but other financial

more from john williams who tried to hold back what fed chair powell deliberately said the other day at his meeting. you would not know to look at the s&p 500 because we are down a point. a lot going down today with that melt up we saw the last couple of days. the 10 year yield up 3.93, down from 4.20 48 hours ago. bloomberg dollar index showing strength. weakness for the euro today and crude oil right now unchanged, 71.59. jon: let's talk about the corporate stories that are moving individual names today. costco paid a profit picture for investors and a special dividend that has fueled the stock. it is up 4% today. guidance coming from steel dynamics encouraging investors, those shares have been a top performer in trading, up five percent. on a day where we are seeing cautiousness in rate sensitive stocks after the run-up that we had seen the last couple of days, there is a commitment to technology. ai and intel with its latest unveiling to analysts, a positive reaction on how it might play into that ship filled future. shares up 2.5%. a company that has been impressing wall street,

i suspect, given the way that chair powell spoke yesterday, that he is seeing stuff that is worryingse you cannot rationalize his change in tone purely on the data. alix: interesting. based on that, if they are seeing underlining -- underlying signs of weakening and that is where the pivot is coming from, what you do in the bond market? padhraic: this will sound like a cop out, but it is not. we have been talking about 4% is being fair value. we are at about 4% right now. i think 4% is fair value. we anticipate that the funds rate gets down to 3%. i want to see a 100 basis point curve. previous curves have come out of 75 basis points when the fed is finished cutting. in needs to be steeper because of the size of the fiscal deficit, so i want a 100 basis point curve. 4% is fair value, but what we are going to do now is overshoot to the downside and the next stop is 3.5%. can we go to three? we can. we should not stay there for long because we have to have a curve. so 3.5% is the next stop. this is what we have been talking about in our end of year previews, to get to 3.5%. guy: so 10

shery: the market is not believing chair powell. lle, how are we setting up for the asian session? annabelle: it's about a key phrase we just heard from jay powell saying rates are well in restrictive territory. that is what traders have been clinging to. this morning we are seeing a big rally in risk assets. and lots of asset classes. gold is one of them. it hit a fresh record high. we are coming off three straight weeks of gains. a good start to pick up in october at a 12% climb, first starting with haven demand, the israel hamas war lead into that. then it's coming down to expectation. we will see rate cuts over the course of next year. we have seen moves in bitcoin this morning earlier touching 40,000 for the first time since may of last year. that was before the collapse of the terrausd stablecoin. when you look at that rsi on a 14 day basis it looks like we are nearing overbought conditions. there has been optimism coming into bed going off the back of the expectation that we will see spark bitcoin etf filings in the u.s. being

chair powell coming up a little bit later.ork city, good morning. ♪ (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ >> you are trying to find political games to get attention so you can out trump, trump. how is that going? you are down 41 points in your own home state. >> he is throwing stuff out to see what sticks. this is a slippery politician whose state is failing, people are leaving, and he is trying to run interference. >> if there is one thing in closing that we have in common, neither of us will be the nominee for our party in 2024. jonathan: what a debate yesterday evening on fox news. governor newsom of california and ron desantis of florida facing off. joining us in washington, d.c.'s bloomberg's and reordering. walk us through what stood out for you. annmarie: i think the first thing is there is mudslinging between these individuals. but the key part of what newsom wa

c-span, powered by cable. >> federal reserve chair jerome powell announced plans to keep interest ratesa third time, but stressed future hikes were not completely off the table. his remarks came at a news conference following a meeting by the federal open market committee, which meets eight times annually. the next meeting is scheduled for the end

the expectation to hear those wordout of chair powell's moh, i think that's where the rubber is going to hit the road at that december fed meeting so, yoyou know, if the market is pricing that in, we might be result into a little bit of gst in the market. >> robert, same question to you. the market hn't really believed what the fed has said, actually just earlier this week, our steve liesman spe to tom barkin who said inflation is stubborn and the market is aring what it wants to hear, and the fed iseeping all of its options on the table. in your mind, how much is dependent on a dovish fed? >> the rally started a few weeks back when the ten-year treasury topped at 5%. it is dicating we have a slower economy ahead and indicating the pottial for the fed to be on pause. he has a tightrope to walk and has the first wave of inflation coming down. you can't declare victory but he also has to say, let's talk tough, but maintain higher f longer as long as they can hold that line. >> you're mentioning bond yields, robert. right now seeing them at 4.31 right now. about 70 bases point how does t

and the press conference with fed chair jay powell.u look at what's happening for other areas of the market and the vix, with stocks down, the vix is down and you off -- and you don't often see that but it's at a 12 handle signaling complete complacency. whatever the why is behind that, this is when the mood can change. don't know that will happen because we've been in stretches where the vix has stayed overly complacent for a long time. crude is down 3% at $69 per barrel, briefly below that mark and investors continue to remain notwowed by the production cuts or it could extend beyond the first quarter. the two year yield after the cpi print in-line, yields go down sharply, more than five basis points and move the other way. most yields now are down slightly in the two year yield is up ever so slightly. let's put this into the context of a technical chart because the two year yield is hanging onto support in a big way. this is the 200 day moving average basically on it. when you say security or marketplace wrestle with a moving averag

in a speech on friday, fed chair powell said it's too early to declare victory despite several decreases welcome, there needs to be more progress if they want to head to the 2% objective. he also added it's premature to start talking about rate cuts, but, jon, let me tell you. the market has completely dismissed those comments because there are five rate cuts based in and that's why the stock market continues to do so well. >>> lastly, neiman marcus rejected sax fiv avenue's recent takeover offer which valued the campaign at over $3 billion. what prompted the decision? >> that's right. there's been a rampant speculation about the two shopping retailers, the giants in the luxury retail space. "wall street journal" are now reporting that niemann market have rebuffed sak's $3 billion offer, questions over the valuation, but also allegedly because they're seeking a higher cash portion. but bear in mind, neiman marcus filed for bankruptcy back in 2020. there were huge changing in shopping around the pan dimmick. and saks itself had to shore up some of the assets they owned by selling off real

fed chair jay powell adding fuel to the rally. stocks giving up some gains, as fed john williams walked things back a little earlier today on cnbc. >> we aren't really talking about rate cuts right now. we're very focused on the question in front of us, which as chair powell said, have we gotten monetary policy to a sufficiently restrictive stance in order to ensure that inflation comes back down to 2%? that's the question in front of us. that's what we have been thinking about for the past five months. i think we'll be continuing to think about that for some time. >> joining me now are the co-head of investments at thornberg, and chris murphy, from susquehanna. ben, what do you make of williams' comments? >> hi, thanks for having me on the show. if we're able to cut rates and avoid a recession, this current fed administration is going to go down in history as one of the most successful feds of all time. so let's see if we achieve it. but i think it would be a great outcome. >> why is he telling us they're not thinking about that

today we hrd frofed chair powell saying talk of te cuts is premature, leavg open the door to more hikes, but generally signaling that the fed may be done. is this the setup for the rally to continue in december? let's bring in bob pisani. >> y know, after an extraordinary november, think about this, up nearly 9%, e setup for december and early 2024 is exceptionay strong. so here is the setup. first, december is the third best month of the year, but what's different about this particular december is that it's a pre-election year and december pre-election years are stronger than other decembe, up 2.9% on average. that's twice a typical december. the first part of the month tends to be the weakest and the second half of the month is where most of the gains will typically occur. it's not just the seasonals, the macro backdrop is strong. look what's going on. interest rates have been dropping, inflation continues to moderate, the gdp growth numbers were solid, unemplment is still low. folks, we call that goldilocks. no wonder wall street is so bullish. almost every wall street strategist thi

liz liz that's what fed chair powell said. what we have been doing is working. a lot of people don't think so but, steven, it is lovely to see you. thank you so much for joining us on the floor show. the one, the only. if. >> thank you, liz. liz: you got it. you guys are going to be blown away by this. a silicon valley start-up is using artificial if intelligence in what it calls a care pod if to provide inexpensive health care that includes previously pricey full-body scans. insurance policy premiums? forget about it. maybe. the founder and ceo of the disrupting company forward is about to take us inside the care pod. that's next. health insurance stocks, we can take a look today. lincoln national, metlife, aflac, prudential, unitedhealth group. three out of the five are moving higher right now, and that would include lincoln, after a flak and metlife. aflac. ♪ edom unlimited card. ♪ ♪ this is much better! i don't think so! steph, one more thing... the team owner gets five minutes a game. cash bros? woo! i like it. i'll break it to klay. cashback like a pro wit