running is now is charles peabody. charles covers the banking sector, and it in the 1980's as well.ur banks ok? >> from a balance she point of view, they are. we don't think they are capital impaired in this cycle. from an earnings point of view, we think there will be an earnings recession. alix: is that oil related? >> we downgraded many of the it wasast june, and because we expected the corporate credit cycle to turn negative. yes, i think it will be beyond energy. it will go to metals, mining, and commercial real estate as well. scarlet: what was the default rate in the 1980's. we presume that bankruptcies will unfold in the same way and at the same rate? >> oil peaked at $30 a share in the 1980's and collapsed under $10, and that was the crisis, but the losses cap coming for the next four years in energy portfolios. humid of losses ranged between 15% and 25%, but back then the portfolios related to energy were larger than today. alix: sonatas diversified. to your point, i've charted the oil price back to 1983. oil peaked out at $30 and fell to $10, and that is the cause of that