group and jeffrey kleintop of charles schwab.do you think of the moment and play that's been unwinding over the last few weeks? in the past, when we get a yield curve inversion, that usually is a sign we are near the peak in that cycle. we have seen this for 50 years. we get inversions, we see leadership begin to shift. tech has probably come close to the end of its very long run. alix: rick, you have different feelings. is there a certain area where you feel like that makes the most sense? a lot of people look at the leader in an upmarket or a down market. i think the top in the s&p is in for some time. i'm not jumping into semis here. it'sm going to buy them, at a lower price. jeff, to what extent does this depend upon capital investment as a practical matter? that companies have to go out and buy more tech? jeffrey: that's a huge part of it. the unsexy side of technology, we know about the consumer side and internet stocks, but the business side is critical to driving the tech sector, and we just haven't seen that. in june of

with us now, abel nooney, charles schwab vice president and senior financial consultant.see you here today. >> thank you. >> $1.7 million is the average amount people think they will need for retirement. >> yes. >> how long do they think they will need that money to cover? >> most people, they plan to retire in their mid 60s and, you know, people are living a lot longer now days. so usually around 30 years. >> so $1.7 million over 30 years what is your typical response when people say, well, i'm covered because if you factor in my social security and what i have saved and what i have invested i will be good? >> we typically try to look at our -- what is your lifestyle going to look like, how much are you spending, what doo y you ha in terms of income. >> do most people assume they will spend less in their retirement than in working years? >> absolutely yes. most people look at -- i'm not going to have a mortgage when i retire, you know, i will be doing less traveling from, you know, home to work so i will have a couple of less expenses usually they fill in some of the gap

she is chiefncome strategist at charles schwab. cathie, always good to see you.nk you for joining us tonight. >> thanks for having me. >> janet yellen said today it was possible it was a false signal b the bond market. what do you think? >> well, there have been instances where we've had t yield curve invert in the past and it hasn't led to recession, so there have been a few false signals. i think what she was referring to was the fact that in this particular case theeason short-term rates are above long-term rates is that long-term rates are falling rather than the reason being that rates are rising and the federal reserve is tightening policy by raising short-term rates. so because it is being led by the longer-term rates, s may be implying that this may not be consistent with t past. >> so what could change the situation? because this inversion came, as bob mentioned earlier, againl weak glogrowth, the numbers out of germany were bad, the numbers out of china were bad, which complicates the situation, doest not? >> absolutely. i think the falling long-ter yie

joining us now is jeffrey kleintop, chief global investment strategy at charles schwab jeff, we've talked trade fights, talked about the fed, we've talked about the health or lack thereof of the u.s. economy. suddenly, now, you've got what looks to be the beginning salvo of a trade on global currency war with china how do we manage through this suddenly big move in currencies? >> this is important currency moves can be destabilizing. we know the simple math. when tariffs go up, currencies go down. that's the prescription. it has some ugly side effects. one of those is companies that have borrowed in dollars in china, now their debt burden is greater than it was. we know there is a debt problem in china this exacerbates it, too it makes buying treasuries less attractive to the chinese. now, the prices are higher when denominated in the local currency three, it negatively impacts u.s. businesses selling into china. now, products are more expensive and have to be discounted or they have to take the hit to earnings that alone is a destabilizing impact it has broader global impacts, as well. >

and china, the unpredictability of the approach on both sides, liz ann what do you at charles schwabng your clients in terms of tweet risk and volatility and exposure to sectors like a semiconductor or an industrial that continue to get in the crosshairs >> it's part of the reason why we think you want to snuggle up to benchmarks and use the swings from a rebalancing perspective, but not try to trade around tweets i think that's a fool's errand i think even the algos are having a difficult time trying to try to keep up with this. and it is this volleyball back and forth and whiplash and all the terms we have been using and i think for investors to try to attempt to play that game, it's a losing proposition. there's no free lunch. the closest thing you can get is what we think is the advice around disciplined diversification, but not trying to make outsized bets in one direction or another because i don't have any better ability to sort of gauge what the next tweet is going to look like than anybody else it's treacherous >> liz ann saunders, thanks for joining us >> thanks. >>> well,

we are thrilled kathy jones is with us with charles schwab. really interested in a desperation of savers and those looking to clip a coupon. from boston, margaret patel from wells fargo, with decades of experience in high-yield and fixed income space. what did schwab see in terms of what people actually did, kathy, what did flows look like? kathy: people were pretty calm. our clients had a lot of cash anyway, certainly fixed income investors have been sitting heavily in short duration securities despite urging them to take a little duration. there was not a lot of panic. people were pretty calm. we have seen these sell us before, and they wrote it up pretty well. tom: margaret patel, you are the queen of opportunities. what have you seen in terms of a price back up in high-yield, is now the time to reenter high-yield? margaret: high yield is very attractive especially with treasury rates this low on the with the one qualification, the ccc's, the bottom of the barrel, are still to be avoided. you can get 4.5% to 6%, which is attractive compared

still with us is charles schwab and bloombergs mike regan.t to pick up where abigail left off with regards to the decline in german yields. we are seeing this across a lot of nations in europe. yields continue to go lower in the united states. what does this tell you about sentiment? >> a few things. one, this confirms that we are in a global economic slowdown. that has been a theme starting in 2018 and continues to be a trend. it also represents the fact that when you see negative yields in europe, it shows how difficult the situation is for the economy they are and how at risk that could be for the rest of the world. cases,ink that in many the tariff discussion, which has impacted the u.s. and in the main discussion between the u.s. forchina, the implications a very weak europe situation could derail further the deceleration of economic growth and put europe in recession. when you combine that with the fact that you have a brexit discussion coming out when you have a changing leadership at the ecb, the eyes on europe is something we all hav

we are thrilled kathy jones is with us with charles schwab. and really interested in the desperation of savers and those looking to clip a coupon. and from boston, margie patel joins us from wells fargo asset, with decades of experience in high-yield and fixed income space. let's dive right in. while we enjoy this weekend, what did schwab see, kathy, in terms of what people actually did? what did flows look like? kathy: actually, people were pretty calm. i would say our clients have had a lot of cash anyway. certainly, fixed income investors have been sitting heavily in short duration securities, despite urging them to take a little duration. but there was not a lot of panic. i think people were pretty calm. we have seen some of these selloffs before, and they rode it out pretty well. tom: margie patel, you are the queen of opportunities. what have you seen in terms of a price back up in high-yield? is now the time to reenter high-yield? margie: i think high yield is very, very attractive especially with treasury rates this low, with the one q

joining us night, jeff kleintop is back with us, chief global investment strategy at charles schwab.e to have you back with us. >> thanks for having me. >> let m start with argentina. i can't tell you the number ofa ts that have been on the program that say the emerging markets are the place to loot because some point they have to come back. but argentina is a good example of the proems facing t emerging markets right now. is it as bad as it gets, do you think? >> argentina is a little bit of an isolated case. i know we can look around the world as bob summed up the issues, but argentina is a unique factor. it has a long history of political mismanagement and boom and busts cychat made it a difficult market. in fact, they were kicked out of the emerging markets index in 2009 because of the former presidentap institutingal controls. one of the developments of course in the latest primary surprise thatd the stock market to fall so dramatically was the very same president, now a vp candidate, potentially now looking in positio to win the election and maybe return the country to capital

. >> liz ann saunders, the chief investment strategist for charles schwab. nice to have you on, liz. >> thanks, brooke. >> your thoughts on china's moves today, what do you think their reasoning was for doing this now? >> well, i think it's reta retaliati retaliation, it was clearly tied to the initial decision to go to 10% on the remaining $300 billion. i think the only thing that was tied to the more recent news was when the trump administration split the tariffs, conceding there would be an impact on the consumer with only some kicking in on september 1st. the fact that china timed their implementation of tariffs to that same point made it a more direct retaliation, to have expected china not to retaliate i think was probably foolish to the extent people thought they would sit back. >> they've retaliated. we're basically more than a year and a half into this fight with china. you tell me, is there any hope of a deal being made? because that is the biggest economic boost we could get. >> it is, and i think absent a deal which does not look like there's any

you be doing with your money right now joining us is kathy jones, chief income strategist at charles schwabski, global head of fixed income at janice henderson joining us from london kathy and jim, real pleasure to have you on at this important time kathy, ten-year bond yield which can't get out of its own way, yielding 1.69%, is the bond market to you saying that we're going into recession soon or is it more of a reflection of all the negative yield around the world and the fact that we're one of the few nations still offering any kind of return to investors? >> yeah. i think brian, it's really the latter we do have a slow downgoing on in the u.s. and certainly reflection of the slow down in the global economy and a lot of worries about the trade war. but i think absent the global pressure, u.s. rates probably would be higher. and i think there's a real cap on u.s. interest rates because there's really very few other places to go to get a positive return and so, we're getting a lot of capital going into the u.s. treasury market and u.s. markets in general seeking some sort of a positive yi

charles schwab's chief investment strategy is with us to talk about the rally and more li stchlt liz ann, thanks for joining us do you think this is sustainable? >> the true answer, i don't know i think that we got a reprieve on yields a little bit so that may have calmed some fears. we know that there was some algorithmic triggers, so maybe the fact that we moved out of it has things moving in the opposite direction we're in a very momentum driven short term market if you look at the factors that have been working. momentum has been working. it has been con enis straighted in the more defensive areas of the market, but momentum nonetheless. and one thing that i can say, the breadth statistics in this latest couple of days look fairly decent. so maybe there is hope that this has sustainability and then lastly, i'd say that the potential for additional tax cut, whether it is feasible, whether it will happen, that might be a bit of a bright light under stocks as well >> recent reports by you, you said lost are longer term concerns >> i think it is amazing how little attention was given

we'll watch that closely joining us on today's rally today, charles schwab chief global investment strategist, jeffrey linetop and barry bannister. appreciate the time. barry, does anything today change, anything meaningfully? and what does it mean that we found some resistance at the 50-day >> yeah, when you think about it, the trade policy we've been seeing is erratic, bordering on impish it's hard to put a multiple on that so it pays for the street to be a little bit reserved. we haven't really seen a change in the economic data we expect third quarter to be weak s&p earnings to be down on a year over year basis nominal growth of about 4 -- last quarter 4 dropping to 3.3 and real growth under 2. so it's going to be a soft third quarter. the question is, if that's the bottom, how soon do we get interested in a more cyclical bias but the s&p looks to us about fairly valued around 2900 or 26,000 dow >> and jeffrey, your view on that same question >> carl, you called it an eventful day there have been a lot of eventful days lately if you look back to when trump initially announced these tariff

joining me now on the phone, liz ann sonders, senior vice president at charles schwab. let me ask you first are there a lot of investors waiting for another shoe to drop? the president said later today he would have a response later on. is there still a lot of buzz waiting for that in your mind? >> who knows. i think we've gone past the point where days like today, some tweets, rumors gone both directions. deal is imminent. we're meeting again, we're off the rails with retaliatory tariffs announced by china. i think we're past the point this represents deflation in animal spirit i think was the initial story. you saw it in dent to business confidence and capital spending plans and actual capital spending. i think we're at now a point to some degree of paralysis. it is hard to envision a scenario, apsent a comprehensive trade deal, which seems less and less likely, there is anything, even much looser fed monetary policy will ease paralysis, reignite animal spirits. that is the rub. manufacturing weakness has been contained. it has not morphed to any significant degree to

liz ann sonders from charles schwab who has not been we call it imminent recession camp. you're not residing there right now but what is your thought process and where we stand with the economy? >> i agree for the most part on the consumer side of the economy we look okay though even there some leading indicators for the consumer have started to deteriors a bit. that is one of the first things employers do before starting to lay people off. you cited in the bullets on-screen, unemployment rate. that is one of the most lagging economic indicators that is the last thing to turn. you will not get a heads up. more important to watch the unemployment claims. manufacturing represents only 12% of the economy. there are reason why there are more manufacturing indicators in the leading index of indicators than consumer oriented indicators changes there lead to changes on the consumer side of the economy. we have to watch. if we see continued deterioration in manufacturing, trade war-related or otherwise, that is likely to morph into weaker payroll numbers and consumer side of the

. >> steve liesman let's stay on topic, joining us kathy jones, charles schwab, chief income strategist. nice to have you we're at 177, also mentioned the income deputy cio. kathy, what's your interest rate forecast given everything we've heard, move down in yields we've seen dramatically over the last week. >> we have jutted our expected range down to 175 at the low end. that was prior to the events of the last couple of days. so we may have to adjust it down to 150 or even 125 if this persists. >> what is the if? >> if this trade war escalation persists. >> 125. >> it could be that's sort of a worse case scenario for us. we really came into the year expecting 175 to 2% to hold. looks as if this persists, continues to ratchet up, continues to weaken confidence on the part of businesses that stop investing or are reluctant to new invest, it could get worse. but our base case scenario was 1.75 on the downside so we're here. >> we're there now, although another couple of cuts perceivably from the fed >> presumably if the fed is doing its job and working, you actually are should see the yi

liz ann saunders, senior vp at charles schwab joins us now by phone. what are you telling your clients today? >> we got a bit more cautious about two years ago, went to what we with call a neutral tactical recommendation on u.s. equities which means don't get out over your skis and go above long-term allocations. we haven't changed anything tactically with regard to this trade has been one of the bigger factors in why we have been a bit more cautious feeling that it is the most important needle mover in particular to define the length of runway between now and the next recession and i think the escalation is being felt i also think that the peek of the market, the recent peek of the market not coincidentally came the same day we got the gdp report as well as the annual benchmark revision this has not gotten enough attention. we really have been it a flat trend for five yar years now on corporate profit i think that's been another factor that has caused weakness in the market that has been sort of overshadowed by all of this tariff stuff >> what would t

steve: you bought the space from charles schwab. brian: i didn't buy it.se it. ainsley: that's a working elevator over there have any never seen anyone use it. steve: no one uses it. it's not certified for people. they can put equipment in i it. ainsley: like a dumbwaiter. brian: we walk a lot here. steve: we do. but then again we sit a lot. maybe a little walking a is good idea. thank you for joining us. hour two starts right now. anks ages the trump administration you will announcing change aimed the keeping families together. brian: the white house scrapping the flores agreement. the democrats seem furious. steve: kevin corke joins us from the white house with reaction from both sides and push back, kevin. some people are saying the children will be detained indepartmently which the white house says is not true. >> that's right the white house is effectively saying we understand a judge will have to approve. this keep in mind even though this would technically indefinite. looking at 60 as opposed to 0 days. let me tell you about this we are talking abou