charlie cook. you're good, charlie. >>> how strong an impact will the tea party have on the primary in texas. apparently a big one. the question is this the start of something big? are the tea partiers taking over the party. if they get kay bailey hutchinson, going for charlie crist, they're going for john mccain. who can't they beat. you're watching "hardball" on msnbc. somewhere in america... there's a home by the sea powered by the wind on the plains. there's a hospital where technology has a healing touch. there's a factory giving old industries new life. and there's a train that got a whole city moving again. somewhere in america, the toughest questions are answered every day. because somewhere in america, more than sixty thousand people spend every day answering them. siemens. answers. bill halder says he'll challenge senator blanche lincoln in arkansas. halder who worked in the clinton administration has already been endorsed by movon.org. in his first campaign video, seems to be borrowing a

charlie cook, sort of the dean of this thinks the republicans will take over the house. i think he's a little out front on that. >> lehrer: you mean come november. >> come november. but i think a lot of people will lose their seat because of this and all the other stuff. >> there is a counterveiling argument that is used. and that is, jim, "the wall street journal" nbc poll done by democrat peter hart, republican bill mcentire show that by 46-45 people said yes, let's pass it, even though there is the opposition that david speaks of. let's just pass it because the status quo is increasingly unacceptable to people. two things, first the insurance companies breathed life back into this. it was dying after scott brown's election. but 39% rate increases gave this legs. >> lehrer: you think so, you think it would have died after that. >> i think it was in big trouble it was on life-support. i don't think there is any question about. that gave it a revitalization. my goodness this is what is going to happen. but the second thing is democrats are really worried about this elect

charlie cook talked about what all this means politically this year.hat he said in a report as politico reported it this week. i think choosing to take a captain ahab-like approach to health care i'm going to push this for even in the worst downturn since the great depression is roughly comparable to bush going to war. does the president come through this, however it turns out? tarnished in some way? is he hurt going into the midterm race? >> i think the debate about reckonciliation is a bit of a rd herring. if this passes and proves to be popular, it will be judged on its merits f. it passes and proves to be unpopular, it would also be judged on those merits. people will soon forget how it was passed. that's how it happened with welfare reform. it was passed through reconciliation. people don't remember the big bickering beforehand. the problem i think for the president is that this is gumming up all of the time he needs to be spending on other things. business leaders are going to the white house saying, we cannot make decisions about trying to hire

i saw charlie cook quoted over the weekend. he said, what makes them think -- they couldn't sell it for seven months during the debate when everybody was paying attention. how is it going to get better with independents? what is the scenario where suddenly this improves? is it suddenly getting it done or not seeing the negatives? >> well, i think their hope is that the predictions that the sky will fall as a result of this legislation will prove not to be true and that the public will see that over time. secondly, they say, and it's true, there are some benefits that begin to kick in immediately that will effect some people. not all, certainly, but some people. there will also be some things people may not like that will begin to kick in. nonetheless, we're going to see some concrete changes that people will be able to measure in a way they weren't able to measure it before this happened. now, the republicans, as you know, are going to take this fight all the way through the fall on several levels. one is -- >> are you convince

we have a full hour, so we will do 50 minutes with charlie cook, extraordinary in terms of the macros situation concerning the elections in november, i think it will keep you very busy. and greg balliere is back in washington, we missed you. welcome home again. both charlie and greg have incredible breath of information and knowledge about what is going on. i tune in to watch what is happening, although i remember when sheila bair had given that speech in october, all of us were consuming heavily, and the one thing i have been tracking consumption of is alcohol. in good times, we popped champagne, and in bad times, the generic beer apparently. it is a quality trade-off. other countries drop consumption and we just figure out other ways to consume. with that, i will welcome charlie to the podium. hopefully he will not fill me -- leaves me feeling so read, thank you, charlie. >> this is a great panel with diane and greg and i have been looking forward to this. i think the whole country owes all of you a debt of gratitude because in these turbulent times, policy makers, business leaders,

host: charlie cook indicates he thinks it is a strong possibility.cain won in 2008. guest: yes. if you look at the overall picture you will see there are 83 truly competitive seats, but by more than 2-1 they are democratic seats. they are seats -- steve, this is really important and it is often missed. it isn't just about health care or president obama's popularity or the economy. a lot of this election is structural. that is -- midterm elections often are. the democrats won over 50 seats. where are they? they are in suburban and areas that normally vote republican. this is the first republican year since democrats won more than 50 seats. they are going to lose a lot of those seats. right there it tills tells you it is going to be a republican year and republicans could at least come close to taking over the house. host: what's happening in that arizona senate race? guest: i still think john mccain will get renominated. in part, i think because he's taken this challenge from former congressman hey worth -- hayworth very seriously. he should take it s

we have a full hour so we will do 50 minutes -- 15 minutes with charlie cook.hink this environment must keep you pretty busy. and greg who was known for a long time, welcome back to washington. we missed you. both charlie and greg have incredible breath of information and knowledge on what is going on. i do not know how it does not make him drink quite heavily to watch what is open on. if you are enduring, i remember when she appeared give that speech, all of us were consuming heavily. the one thing i have been tracking consumption of is out halt. in good times, we popped champagne corks, in bad times we drink generic beer. our consumption has gone up in volume which is the quality trade-off. in other countries drop consumption on the run out of money. we just buy cheaper stuff here. without further ado, i would like to welcome charlie up to the podium. thank you. [applause] >> thank you. thank you for having me. this is a great panel and i am looking forward to this. first of all, i think the whole country owes all of you a debt of gratitude, particularly in t

charlie cook with the cook political report says it looks like democrats could lose control of the househerry-pick what parts of this bill you like. >> joe, i can look -- >> because i can cherry-pick items that americans will hate. >> joe, here's the difference between today and tomorrow. i'll say it one more time. the fundamental tenet, the biggest essence of the american brand is we love winners. let's revisit this "a," 9d0 day from now, and "b," what america knew what they were getting, the polls swing in the opposite direction. >> so it's americans' ignorance. okay. >> i don't want to say it as crassly as that. >> no, you think it's americans -- >> no, once this unfolds and once we're in november and all that's happened between now and november is my kid can get insurance and my taxes have not gone up. >> we'll continue this, donny, in a minute. let's go back to chuck. so does the white house understand, does the hill understand that now the real battle begins to shape this health care bill and try to sweep as many americans into the euphoric state that donny deutsche now finds himse

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