ron brownstein, and charlie cook, both columnists for the "national journal" and proud of it. let's go to interesting comparisons. let's start with a fact. seven months from now, the elections. does the president have enough time to shift from the focus on health, the back economic news, being america's president, getting back into issues like afghanistan, oil drilling and things like that? >> the president might be able to shift, but the question is can congress? we have seen a separation where the president's numbers have leveled off, but congress' numbers and leader's numbers have continued to drop. there is an old saying that history never repeats itself. it only appears to for those who don't know the details. the thing is all these elections are different. they all are. the thing about it is for example, in 1994, unemployment was a little under 6%. in 2006 when republicans got wiped out it was a little under 5%. in this economy it's there in -- unemployment is not going to get significantly better. that number is expected to stay there through the end of this year by the

charlie cook has been called up with of the best political handicappers in the nation and the picasso of election analysis. the cook political report has been referred to as the bible of the political community. he's an insiders insider. i've heard that the only thing democrats and republicans in this town ever agree on is that charlie is the go-to authority on political trends and elections. dana milby a columnist for "washington post" once said the pharaoh had joseph, the greeks had the oracle at delphi and washington has charlie cook. please join me in welcoming charlie cook. [applause] >> i do not know the two-step. [laughter] >> he's parking the car. [laughter] >> it's my first washington summit as chairman. this is good, isn't it? this is great. i don't sing very good either. we're going to have steven and karen do the one and two show here again. [laughter] >> yeah. we've got our two head chair people here. does anyone have any questions about any of this stuff that's flowing through right now that's been on their mind? we got a few minutes. yeah, larry? [inaudible] >> can you

i don't want the fcc sending a note to fox, take charlie cook, one of the experts.ry time he reevaluates the senate seats and house seats he reevaluates them closer to a republican majority and more seats up in the senate. harry reid, every survey shows him losing double digits. leader of the senate doesn't get defeated. it only happen with tom daschle in 2004. american people are angry and healthcare will add to it. >> democrats say that well, the trend economically is our friend, if joe biden is right on expecting the -- we're going to create 200,000 jobs a month, that could be a good wind at their back. >> it is a good wind, but up to a point. look, how much money are they spending for these 200,000 new jobs? i could give you $10 billion and you could create 200,000 jobs and they would be more likely to last. the issue the american people have is don't punishmy kids. don't tell me i have to pay so much more. don't add additional taxation and regulation and litigation to my life. the anger is not just about the job loss that happened in the last year under the oba

i think charlie cook put it well the other day the analyst who writes for national journal.re are between 25 and 35 seats today, enormous improvement puts them almost in charge. they need a couple of breaks between now and the end of the campaign. simple example i'm coloring as an idea at american solutions. one of the things in the health bill is 16,000 additional irs agents. i think the average american doesn't think we need 16,000 health police. they don't think we need a single health police. it is interesting that health bill has more irs agents than doctors or nurses or people who do dealt -- who do health, in the bill. if republicans run as one of their planks they will never fund the 16,000 irs agents and block implementation of the 430 billion dollars new taxes and put it straight to the country. want 16,000 new irs agents vote democrat. do you not? vote republican. my guess is that would be one of the five or six issues that could set the stage for a majority. >> sean: fiscal responsibility, balanced budgets, elimination of earmarks, transparency. put everything on

political analyst charlie cook address some of the issues this election year. this is just under an hour. [applause] >> charlie, i already did your introduction. [laughter] >> it was great, by the way. my mother appreciate it. >> you thought they were teasing about the latest information. this is something that literally did just come through. you have just been listening to senator shelby. hang on a second here. wire when not working here? ok. -- why are we not working here? washington post, approximately 2/3 of americans -- anyway, you knew that. thank you very much for having -- a lot of you may not realize that when i started my business, the cook political report 26 years ago, it was with my $6,000 of the senate retirement fund and a $10,000 loan from a small community bank in mississippi that my father-in-law -- [applause] my father-in-law co-signed it. i'm not sure -- who is here from mississippi? no? i am not sure that the bank still exists, but they got paid off. [laughter] it would be interesting to do a survey of american businesses. when you first st

politics is local, and that's probably one of the most widely quoted lines in american politics, the charlie cook variation of that is that all politics is local except when it's not. now, it's deeply profound stuff here. [laughter] >> but the thing is from time to time, we have -- you know, most elections are local. and you look at the state senate or state representative district and you study the people, you know, in that place. you study the voting patterns in that place. you look at the candidates, the campaigns, the issues. you know, who's got money, who isn't, that sort of thing. and you could pretty much figure out most cases who's likely to win a general election there, the kind of stovepipe. but occasionally we have these elections where all politics isn't local. you know, go tell a democrat during that 1994 gingrich tidal wave election that all politics is local. they'll think you're crazy. or republican in 2006. they'll think you're crazy. and so you have to just kind of be aware that from time to time we have these wave elections where there's like an invisible hand that's pushing th

. >> chris: charlie cook, perhaps the independent analyst who watches the house races most closely here in washington projects a republican pickup this year of 25 to 35 seats. of course, you need a net gain of 40 seats to take back control of the house. are you going to get there? >> chris, i think the opportunity is there for republicans to take control of the house. this is going to be a national campaign. that means it goes beyond the district. if you look at every measurement from the gallup poll to the number of recruits that we have to new jersey and virginia much like '93 and 2005 they were early indicators of where the country is going. the country is frustrated and angry at the arrogance of washington. doesn't mean they are happy republicans but he are upset with the arrogance of washington. i think republicans have an opportunity. when you look at the election it is not just about politics. i do want republicans to do well but this is really more importantly about america. i'm very proud to be an american. i want my children to have that pride. i want every child to have that

they heard from political analyst charlie cook of "the cook political report" for about 50 minutes. [applause] >> charlie, i already did your introduction. >> oh wow! [laughter] >> it was great by the. >> thank you. thank you. they all applauded. >> my mother appreciated it. you thought they were teasing about the latest information. hang on a second, something that literally just did come through. although you just have been listening to senator shell, hang on a second here. why are we not working here? okay. yes, abc, "washington post", abc, approximately 2/3 of americans support stricter regulations of banks and financial institutions conduct their business. you knew that. thank you very much for having. you know what a lot of you may not realize is when i started my business, my "cook political report", 26 years ago, it was with my $6,000 out of senate retirement fund and a $10,000 loan from a small community bank in mississippi that my father-in-law -- [applause] my father in law colined it, cosigned it. and anyway. i'm not sure, actually, who is here from mississippi? anybody?

charlie cook has been saying this. i'm astonished at the deterioration of the democratic party.y party. >> it is. yes. i think it's close to 50/50. >> touch and go. >> another hot topic we'll be at play in the november elections, the deficit. the head of the congressional budget office is taking the lead from federal reserve chairman ben bernanke and former chairman paul volcker calling the national debt "unsustainable" noting a cbo report, doug elmendorf is predicting dire consequences if political leaders don't scale back spending, increase taxes or both. the report predicts an increase in the public debt from $7.5 trillion to $29.3 trillion at the end of 2020 if the president's fiscal budget for the year 2011 is implemented as it is currently written. elmendorf stressed the urgency of all of this saying it cannot be solved through minor tinkering. norah wants to tax everybody. >> just kidding. >> no, no, no, i was merely quoting paul volcker who suggested we will likely have to raise taxes. there's a lot of people talking about a value added tax, even douglas holtz-eakin said

will hear from banking committee ranking republican richard shelby and also political analyst charlie cook and others. live coverage at 9:00 a.m. eastern on c-span2. the u.s. chamber of commerce is holding a forum to help businesses know the time line for implementation of the new health-care law. a series of discussions this morning beginning at 10:00 and that will be live on c-span3. >> i think there is a huge vat of knowledge about how this town works, how congress works. >> when you are doing the actual research work -- >> this weekend, award winning the start says richard norton smith and douglas bernanke -- douglas brinkley will talk about their books, their works and professions. q&a, sunday night on c-span. >> "washington journal" continues. host: we have folks talking about immigration policy. daniel stein, federation for american immigration reform. thank you for being with us. frank sharry, founder and executive director of american boys. news this past week -- american voice. news this past week and immigration. let us look at an article from "usa today." opponents from nationa

. >> next, political analyst charlie cook talks about this year's elections. oke at a conference of community bankers. this is about 50 minutes. [applause] >> charlie, i already did your introduction. it was great, by the way. >> thank you. my mother will appreciate it. actually, you thought they were teasing about the latest information. this is -- hang on a second. somebody literally did just come through although you have just been listening to senator shelby. hang on a second, here. why are we not working here? ok. yo h for having me. you know t ay iz t when i started my business, my cook political report, 26 years ago, it was with my $6,000 out of the senate retirement fund and a $10,000 loan from a small community bank in mississippi that my father-in-law -- [applause] >> my father-in-law cosigned it. i'm not sure -- who's here from mississippi? anybody? no, no. i'm not sure the bank of holidale, mississippi exists. they got paid off, i'll assure you that. that would be interesting to do a survey of american business and find out, okay, when you first sta

snowed senator richard shelby, ranking republican on the banking committee, political analyst charlie cookassistant treasury secretary for financial institutions, a conference on the independent community bankers of america. live coverage starts at 9:00 a.m. eastern on c-span2. . >> this week, two historians discuss their lives. richard norton smith teaches at george mason university. he's currently working on a biography of nelson rockefeller. douglas brinkley teaches at rice university. he's completing a book on alaska and the fight to save the wilderness there. he's also working on a biography of walter cronkite. . if it weren't for library purchases their sales might be measured in the dozens. most people it seems," says gordon wood, "are not interested in reading history, at least not the history written by academic historians." start with that. >> i would say part of the problem is that there are not more gordon woods, distinguished academics who are held in high regard by their peers who are interested in writing for more than their peers. if you think of people in the past, arthur