the economic front looks like it's even getting worse, but what these polls show us is that as charlie cook said, this race is becoming the republican party's to lose in 2012. the polls also show that the entire republican field it looks like including the controversial ones like michele bachmann may be acceptable to the american people, more importantly acceptable to the independents. everything, though, depends on the -- depends on what happens in the economy, john, because obama is still well liked by the amamican people and they still want him to succeed. >> i don't know how you -- his

>> charlie cook, who has both heart and head. thank you very much. great head for politics. thank you. >>> as we've been talking about, all the political action today is here in ames. right now rick perry has stolen some of the attention. announcing his presidential campaign today in south carolina. before a trip to new hampshire, is america ready for another texas governor in the white house? the "washington post's" chrisvisle will join us next. this is the relief i've been looking for. salonpas has 2 powerful pain fighting ingredients that work for up to 12 hours. and my pharmacist told me it's the only otc pain patch approved for sale using the same rigorous clinical testing that's required for prescription pain medications. proven. powerful. safe. salonpas. excuse me? my grandfather was born in this village. [ automated voice speaks foreign language ] [ male announcer ] in here, everyone speaks the same language. ♪ in here, forklifts drive themselves. no, he doesn't have it. yeah, we'll look on that. [ male announcer ] in here, friends leave you messages written in the a

. >>> we start with the republicans not charlie cook is nbc's political analyst and editor of the cook political report. >>> and jonathan martin is senior political reporter for politico. welcome to you both. whether you look at the republican field, it seems to me that none of them are actually electable. the thing is i think it's a plea eastboundo. it really is. but, you know, look, there's a lot of disillusionment. jonathan's piece yet really nailed it. i might add there's a lot of disillusion meant -- the president's job approval ratings in the gallup poll last week was 8%. the think about it is they may be disillusioned, but i think frankly at the end of the day will they vote a year from november? you bet. doesn't that apply to the democrats, too? they're not going to go voting for rick perry. isn't one of the big problems is they are a fractured party? you have the bachmann perry wing and those two don't see eye to eye. >> both parties certainly have their problems right now. i think it's more accuse in the republicans part, of course, president obama doesn't have a primary. usu

i spoke to charlie cook yesterday and he told me that these ideas were once considered eccentric andainstream and that the paul campaign should be thrilled that other candidates are parroting his message and it's becoming more accepted by the party. >> but the other candidates have really never appeared to take ron paul all that serious. they are just out there on the campaign trail? >> maybe they should. today the ron paul campaign is using his age as an event to raise money. they are calling it the ron paul money birthday bomb. they are hoping to raise $1.5 million. they point to paul's age as not we saw at the republican debate, when santorum was active about iran, so the campaign believes that congressman paul has a long history that can benefit the country that is more weary and campaign says that the economic spending trillion of dollars on wars won't sit well with voters in this year's election. >> anthony, thank you. appreciate your time. >> thanks, craig. appreciate it. >> for more on ron paul, check out the full article. it's at firstread msnbc.com. republican candidate mit

joining me now, charlie cook, msnbc political analyst, the man who gave me my first job in washingtond.c. charlie, let's look -- >> first full time job. >> we've got the ipad out. we bring it out for special guests. let's start in iowa, which is our earliest primary state. maybe we won't start in iowa. looks like we're freezing up. we know mike huckabee won 35%, mitt romney, 13. where are we in iowa now? michele bachmann won the amos straw poll. is she the front runner? >> i think she's the one, as the american midwesterner, she has got it. for mitt romney, rick perry, it's like a key conference game, home game that's really important. michele bachmann needs to win. i mean win, win, win iowa. mitt romney needs to win new hampshire. rick perry, even though south carolina and texas are far apart, as a deep southern state, he's got to really win in south carolina, so the question is who could edge in one way or the other? >> who can steal the game essentially? >> right or any wildcards that jump in. >> you mentioned, i think we've got this up and running. let's try new hampshire. new ham

kand charlie cook msnbc political analyst.bate, what did you find surprising? where was jon huntsman, is mitt romney flying over the field? >> i think mitt romney and michele bachmann held their own at the top tier. i think pawlenty did well enough to survive where his candidacy is really on the edge. he did well enough to survive. i thought jon huntsman and herman cain were just awful. i thought they didn't help themselves at all. i thought it was kind of fun to watch newt going after fox. it was sort of out of character, but interesting. >> by the way, right now we see mary pawlenty introducing her husband tim pawlenty out at the state fair. he's about to get up on that soap box. he as you can see is much more casual and relax laxed. he was terrible at breakfast this morning. he was wowing the crowd. a sense of humor. a little stiff last night. took some jabs at her. and you say, held his own. >> i thought pawlenty did as well last night as i had expected him to do in previous events. i thought santorum for a guy that doesn'

the economic front looks like it's even getting worse, but what these polls show us is that as charlie cookaid, this race is becoming the republican party's to lose in 2012. the polls also show that the entire republican field it looks like including the controversial ones like michele bachmann may be acceptable to the american people, more importantly acceptable to the independents. everything, though, depends on the -- depends on what happens in the economy, john, because obama is still well liked by the amamican people and they still want him to succeed. >> i don't know how you -- his extraordinary weaknesses demonstrated in the polls. >> the american people have not given up on him. but in talking to various democratic operatives this week, they're close to despair about whether he will be able to turn this around. now, he's had low points before, and he seems to be able to come back. and i think what he has to say about jobs and can actually do about jobs when we comes back will be critical. but when you look at the opposition, i think once the republicans settle on a candidate, i thin

i'm joined by split call analyst charlie cook, editor of the cook political report. e, when you go to a straw poll, just an overview, compare this to the big one in '99. we were at the one in '95 with the famous tie, what did you think of this one? >> well, i think this is a big one. we have seen up to 24,000, but it is like the weather, a beautiful day. you and i remember four years ago it was hot out here. >> not as fun. but today is a day where every campaign knows the exact number of votes. the man who ran huckabee's campaign four years ago, he could tell you by ten votes how many votes he had. 00 with home-schoolers, and this many with amway. these guys know exactly the number of votes today. what do you feel like you are learning? >> some of them do, but i don't have a handle on how well bachmann did. my hunch is very well, but i don't know. i don't know if they know because i think she gets more spontaneous support. i think mike huckabee -- they knew the names of every person showing up for them. i don't know if the bachman east bachmann people do. >> i'm joine

. >> charlie cook said many house and senate members in the 2012, 2014, 2016 are going to lose their seats because congress has become a laughingstock over this. >> to pick up on what marks -- what mark said, john boehner -- the blandishments that worked in the past do not work anymore. you cannot do earmarks. what they worry about, some of these younger members, is a primary on their way. they are happy to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory because for them, it is a personal victory. >> who is in trouble? orrin hatch maybe? >> absolutely. >> that is the hornets' nest of john boehner's existence. freshman of south carolina who went into the house chappell and came out and said they had collectively agreed after seeking higher power and instructions, to oppose john boehner. >> south carolina has been here before. [inaudible] they are prepared to do it again. >> that was 1861. >> do you have a statute of limitations on south carolina? >> but it is not just republicans. sanders, the independent senator, liberal. he is suggesting a primary challenge to the president. >> not going to

joining me live from ames is charlie cook. with a good morning to you, charlie. i have to ask.into place for the interview. is it a zoo out there? is a big security sweep that they're doing? what's going on? >> this is my third or fourth straw poll. it always remind me of sort of the normandy invasion. you have buses coming in from each of the 99 counties across the state for various candidates. they drop them off at the prepositioned areas near the tent areas for each campaign. and it really is an amazing amount of organization and really a lot of fun. it's a beautiful day out there. >> that's good. that will help make sure people get out and enjoy things and go vote. saying that you've been to three or four of these, do you see anything different this year from any other straw poll that you witness sd? >> not really. it's always a matter of survival. where you have a big field coming in. and the heard gets cold a it usually at straw poll. two or three of the folks that didn't make the cut don't move on. there's no real opportunity for a real boost to raise more money if you d

we have an interview with chuck today, charlie cook and iowa pollster anne seltzer.lady, the democratic challenger in a key congressional race here. "andrea mitchell reports" live next from des moines coming up in 15 minutes right here on msnbc. >>> police in mexico have found the three grandchildren of a california congressman nearly four years after their mother reportedly abducted them. she and her current husband are under arrest, were paraded in front of the media. she had a joint custody agreement with her ex-husband, brian miller, the son of congressman gary miller. she's now facing three years in prison for fleeing the country with her children in 2007. >>> 80-year-old billionaire george soros is being sued by his 28-year-old exgirlfriend who claims he broke a promise to buy her an apartment and he roughed her up in the process. >> she's a ravishing former star of a soap opera now studying at colombia. and he is the richest and most powerful men. but the 28-year-old beauty says 80-year-old george soros promised twice that buy her a dream home apartment in thi

charlie cook is an msnbc political analyst. this just in they say the president is taking the budget team out for burgers on the hill. >> taking him for beers. >> more than burgers. >> we don't know exactly what they're ordering yet. the prez obama burger is marmalade, roquefort cheese. the michelle melt is carmelized onions, ruby tomato on a frosted wheat baked bun. >> i don't think michelle would allow the mayo on the president obama burger. >> they need a break, but everyone needs a break. but chuck, how does the president pivot? i interviewed nancy pelosi we're going to be playing that next. the fact is they're trying to talk about jobs. the result of this debt deal is they've got in money to play with. >> i feel like this is a broken record. we've had this discussion before. now they're going to pivot to jobs. >> what can they do? >> there isn't much they can do. there were some things that they thought they were going to get done in july. but the debt ceiling overshadowed them and they couldn't get them through. the free

charlie cook joins me as well, editor of the "cook political report."me point, mitt romney said if you don't like my answer, you can go vote for somebody else. that's pretty much what -- i mean, they've got some choices in iowa at this point. charlie? >> you know what i thought was interesting from that shot was you notice that everyone cleared out from away from the heckler, and if this was out of character, it wasn't sort of the midwestern nice that we're used to, and that's not the way it usually works out here in iowa. people are generally fairly polite and respectful and they'll ask a tough question, then back off and listen to the answer. the fact you saw the other spectators backing away and creating distance away from that heckler, i think that says something. >> here's live pictures right now of mitt romney out at these events. this is an opportunity for a lot of these candidates, debate tonight, straw poll this weekend, to go out and do a lot of glad-handing, to meet people face-to-face and give iowa voters a chance to see who they are outside

ann selzer and christy vilsack who is running for congress and debbie wassermann schultz, and charlie cookgue chuck todd as well. and no twinkies for you. >> no, maybe next hour. >>> well, there are calls for president obama to push congress to return from break and deal with the turmoil on wall street and the economic crisis. i will talk to walter simon and sam stein, and both will join us. plus, why are there more than 3 million jobs right now unfilled in this country when we have 14 million americans out of work? help us to understand this. randy wine gardguarder is the president of the american teacher's federation, and she is here to help us understand that. every day you live with the pain of moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis could be another day you're living with joint damage. help stop the damage before it stops you by asking your rheumatologist about humira. for many adult patients with moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis humira has been proven to help relieve pain and stop joint damage. humira's use in patients with ra has been evaluated in multiple studies during the

we will have it all tomorrow on the show, and chris cillizza will be back and charlie cook, the editor and our crack capitol hill team to follow it all. remember to follow the show online and on twitter at mitchell reports. my colleague richard lui is in for my colleague tamron hall, and he has a look at "newsnation." richard? >> well, thank you. next hour, we are following the developments in washington as the senate passed an emergency bill to prevent government default, and president obama saying it is the first step and more needs to be done. senator ben cardin who voted for that bill joins us live. and plus, we will get the latest on the tropical storm emily's track and find out what is in store for the united states. "newsnation" is minutes away. specialists, lots of doctors, lots of advice... and my hands were full. i couldn't sort through it all. with unitedhealthcare, it's different. we have access to great specialists, and our pediatrician gets all the information. everyone works as a team. and i only need to talk to one person about her care. we're more than 78,000 people lo

congressman, i want to read you a quote from charlie cook, the noted author of the cook political reportl journal today, perhaps only ron paul had no need to prove anything. he has always marched to the beat of his own drum and runs a campaign more about promoting his libertarian views than winning the white house. how do you respond? is. >> i think it's a pretty good position because i think you should go for the person who has principles and believe in 'em. if you noticed last night, most of the other candidates were all challenged for their flip-flopping, and rightfully so. they should be challenged. but i was 9/11 given a question -- never given a question about flip-flopping because they know where i stand. if you're a philosophical candidate, it should be philosophy. this country is shift anything the direction of limited government, a foreign policy that is different, balancing our budget, having sound money. though i would say it's coming together, the philosophy is coming together with the political change, and we've talked about this even four years ago. it was coined as a revo

charlie. >> rose: chef and restaurateur david boule is here. as frank bruny once wrote in the "new york times," the man can cook. he learned from the best. his french-born grandmother who hosted cooking sessions every sunday at her rhode island farm. his restaurant empire in new york's tribeca neighborhood centers around his flagship bulou. and his newest restaurant is in osacajapan called brush stroke. i'm pleased to have david boule back at is table? how long has it been, 20 years? >> 20 years. >> rose: where have you been and what have you been doing? >> thank you for having me back. >> rose: opening restaurants, closg restaurants. >> opening, expanding, evolving. >> rose: what do you think you've learned since you were last at this table? >> in those days i had come froi wear the chef's jacket, which i never wanted to do when i was younger. i never went to cook school and i i was focused on what i grew up on, the farm nature. and i was the generation of presenting ingredients, how should they taste? that's what it was ithe 80s. since the 90s have passed and we're another decade beyond that, where i am today, i'm learning more about h