joining me now, charlie cook, msnbc political analyst and publisher of "the cook political report." halperin, senior political analyst for "time" and msnbc. and michael steele, msnbc analyst and former republican chairman. thank you all. welcome. first of all, charlie, we arrive here in north carolina, elon university has a new poll with the charlotte observer showing mitt romney up four, that's barely outside the margin of error, i should point out, that you, charlie cook, you michael steele and our own brian williams are all proud elon parents. >> it's a very good poll and it's a poll of live interviews, including cell phones. it's a higher quality poll than a lot of the other ones you see, robopolls that aren't allowed to call cell phones. >> what does it mean? north carolina is a must-win for mitt romney. there are other routes for barack obama. he's got more options to get to the magic number. >> that's exactly right. i think you will see the obama campaign staying here because for every million bucks they spend here, they could force the romney campaign to spend two or three m

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up next, chuck todd, charlie cook looks inside the numbers for us and jonathan capehart. charlotte on "morning joe." 4g lte has the fastest speeds. so let's talk about coverage. based on this chart, who would you choose ? wow. you guys take a minute. verizon, hands down. i'm going to show you guys another chart. pretty obvious. i don't think color matters. pretty obvious. what's pretty obvious about it ? that verizon has the coverage. verizon. verizon. we're going to go to another chart. it doesn't really matter how you present it. it doesn't matter how you present it. verizon. more 4g lte coverage than all other networks combined. that bringing you better technology helps make you a better investor. with our revolutionary e-trade 360 dashboard you see exactly where your money is and what it's doing live. our e-trade pro platform offers powerful functionality that's still so usable you'll actually use it. and our mobile apps are the ultimate in wherever whenever investing. no matter what kind of investor you are, you'll find the technology to help you become a better one

. >> well, it's going to be a continuing problem because jonathan, charlie cook wrote today in the national journal that unless mitt romney does something to change his campaign, gop donors may abandon him like they did bob dole in 1996. romney faces the very real prospect that republican donors super pacs and other parts of the gop support structure will towards helping him and towards a last-ditch senate majority and a senate house majority. >> the problem that mitt romney has, he now has less than 40 days to turn this thing around. this is a man who has been running for president for six years and now it boils down to 40 days, three debates, one more if you include the vice presidential debate to try to convince the american people who are now really paying attention that he is the person to replace president obama in office. and it just doesn't seem like that it's working. again, we've got 40 day. less than 40 day. so anything can happen. after all, this is politics. but it seem highly unlikely. >> now, erin, but at the same time, isn't it a little kind of cynical for some of the republ

. >> steve still says he has time to win but national journalist charlie cook says it may be too lateell himself personally. he writes, the romney campaign made the extraordinary decision to not try seriously to connect their candidate with voters on a personal level until their convention, but the bigraphical film and the testals of people whose lives had been touched by romney were powerful, necessary, and largely unseen. and then says, debates were used for empathy. >> there's a question about if there's a mitt romney they can sell to voters, whether or not it's too late. we've seen various versions of mitt romney, whether it's his policy, positions or his bio, the point they chose to reference, but i think all of that is just a backdrop to his policies. you know, when you have a tax plan that raises taxes on 95% of americans. you have middle class families, their taxes are going up by about $2,000 a year. and then you put that against the back drop of someone perceived to be out of touch, who doesn't necessarily understand the challenges and concerns of everyday middle class ameri

. >> i will look at charlie cook's breakdown here. he 21 republican held seats that are vulnerable.s 15 democrats. for to you pull this off, i went through his numbers. i went through all of these numbers. it seems that you would have to hold every one of your vulnerable seats and if you win every vulnerable republican seat that charlie and stu see, you get to 29. that's quite the inside straight, is it not? >> i have always said that this is going to be a field goal. we won't win 50 seats. we won't win 40 seats. this is the metaphor i use. we had the ball on our own 20 yard line. no path to the goal post. couldn't figure out what plays to execute to get us to the goal post. no view of the goal post. we have driven the ball to the republicans 20 yard line. we have it in their red zone. any good football fan knows that if you're going to kick a field goal, a lots of your success has to do with the wind. if you have wind at your back, you'll kick that field goal. wind in your face, hard. still wind, uncertain. in august we had a brisk breeze at our back. if it continues, i think we ki

charlie cook says that's what romney needs to work on.t's true, but he also built up this narrative of himself as the problem solver and the data guy, and then he brought in paul ryan who is the budget details guy. so they had this veneer, and now that voters are looking at them and saying, you're the problem solver. how do you solve this problem? there's not a lot there. even beyond solving that empathy gap, there's a danger for romney "nightly news" in t in the debates to see there aren't answers there behind the talking points. when you're on the stage with your competitor, and they can push you on points, he has to get better answers or feeling like it's competent and knowledgeable is going to fall apart. >> we don't take the electoral college, not the popular vote. people say here's what's going on in ohio and in florida, and you're like, no. look at the national numbers. why? >> if obama is leading by three and a half points on average nationally, then he's going to lead in all the swing states. it's not that romney has a problem an

live at this great location along with convention host governor bev purdue and chris matthews, charlie cookperin, jonathan capehart and michael steele. all that next right here, "andrea mitchell reports." this country was built by working people. the economy needs manufacturing. machines, tools, people making stuff. companies have to invest in making things. infrastructure, construction, production. we need it now more than ever. chevron's putting more than $8 billion dollars back in the u.s. economy this year. in pipes, cement, steel, jobs, energy. we need to get the wheels turning. i'm proud of that. making real things... for real. ...that make a real difference. ♪ i don't have to use gas. i am probably going to the gas station about once a month. drive around town all the time doing errands and never ever have to fill up gas in the city. i very rarely put gas in my chevy volt. last time i was at a gas station was about...i would say... two months ago. the last time i went to the gas station must have been about three months ago. i go to the gas station such a small amount that i forget h

. >> charlie cook in his cook report noting that he is seeing some shades here of '96 in this electionr ten days critical for romney in the gop if things don't turn around? if things don't turn around, there could be a stampede. republicans reeling bob dole is not going to defeat president clinton is repeating itself. there is a lot of criticism that the romney campaign is incompetent. do you see those shades of bob dole there as well? >> mitt romney is often compared to bob dole because they're both running against relatively popular democratic incumbents, and for their vice presidential pick, they pick supply-side congressman. here is the difference, bob dole when he ran was senate majority leader, a washington insider. mitt romney is a bain capital guy coming from the outside as the governor of massachusetts. >> karen finney, you've got ten seconds. robert took all of your heim. thursday morning after the debate, what are we talking about? >> we are talking about 2016 -- no i'm kidding. we are analyzing if each candidate because i don't believe in trying to lower expectations. we're

the other thing, if you look at charlie cook and some independent prognosticators, they say there hasn'teally been coattails anyway in the house. senate races are a little different animal than the house race. >> maybe the next chairman of the nrcc. republican from oregon, thanks for coming on. >>> apple's iphone 5 hits stores here in the u.s. about 90 minutes ago. does the phone frenzy boost wall street? it is a quadruple witching friday. becky quick, i grew up with learning these crazy witching fridays so -- so it is option friday. what are the three others? >> it is options and contracts and the futures and stock indexes on all of them. all four of them are expiring at the same time. usually that means you see some positive activity. in fact, if you looked at the quadruple witching fridays in september for the last eight years, ended up every single one of those times the markets ended higher. this is something we got going for us. it is also a friday -- >> it's not even halloween yet. >> the last eight fridays in a row markets have also ended higher. what does that tell you? it tells

something that other polls don't -- i'm going to steal a line from charlie cook.st, he says technology has done a lot of things. technology has not improved polling. >> what is the margin of error, by the way? >> ours? three points. >> statistically. >> does it matter it was september 9th through 11th, right after the democratic election? >> yes. >> the unemployment report too. the crappy employment report. >> but pre, crisis in the middle east. >> how many days? 54. >> i think we're down to 53. look, i'm concerned about the state of polling in general. i tell you, we work really hard here. i'm confident in our poll. >> well, we'll see you on monday, because becky probably wouldn't ask about this. >> he tweeted this, and i tweeted back, he does have a slot here every day. >> 6:02, get your alarm going. >> 6:02. i don't know. is there shows on before 7:00? come on, man. you're killing me. >> at least you're on the real joe for once, we like that. >> don't get involved on that, joe. >> thank you, chuck. i'll get you involved in a little bit. rudy giuliani, coming up

charlie crowson off this morning. lauren cook here with a look at traffic. lynette with weather. beautiful day out there yesterday and of course the roads right now pretty quiet. >> yes and how about the orioles game? >> incredible. >> unbelievable. they are now chalk them the extra in-- calling them the extra inning beast of the east. keep it up orioles we're proud of you. >> i know a lot of people yawning this morning. >>> the weather is really going to be a shock to the system. it is chilly out there and brisk, make sure you have the jacket out and about. the numbers are cool. 40s in a lot another soft, this morning. -- of spots the morning. nottingham at 50. these temperatures are well below for this time of the year and we are going to be dealing with dry weather through the day. that's some good news as well. maryland's most powerful radar is dry right now it will stay that way into the afternoon for the next several days. get out there take advantage of it and enjoy it because you know all good things must come to an end. we lock at the hour by hour forecast for today and

alongside lynette charles who has a look at the weather and lauren cook with traffic. and charlie crowson and his wife, still waiting for that baby. >> yeah wow. >> i know. they've been in the hospital for since tuesday so he's been checking in with us and things are going well. they're just going slow. >> my mother was in labor with my sister from tuesday to saturday. so hopefully not a story like that. >> hopefully charlie's wife didn't hear you say that. everybody's face is like? >> all right, but there will be smiling about the weather. >> they will be smiling about the weather. a little cold this morning but still enjoy it because we are going to start to see a few more clouds in the area. the temperatures this morning 53-degrees in jefferson and that dew point coming in at 53. right now the winds are calm and pick up more from the south in the afternoon at about 5 to 10 miles per hour. that southerly flow is going to be a little bit warmer. jessup 53 degrees right now and the dew point at 52. in catonsville more of the same and 54 for a dew point. we look at maryland's most

i'm megan pringle alongside lauren cook who's looking at traffic and lynette charles looking at weather. charlie just sent me -- charlie crowson just september me a baby up -- sent me a baby update. he and his wife have been in the hospital since tuesday when they started inducing her. still no baby. that's a stubborn baby. taken after charlie. anyway the word is that at 10:00 p.m. they brought in the big guns and trying to push this forward. we'll update you and he's letting us know what's going on at the hospital. they in howard county and we'll keep you posted. >> i feel like we're part of it. >> get our scrubs on and head on down there after the show. >> i keep checking facebook for the update, for the picture. >> she's been a good sport and she's hanging in there. baby girl on the way. >> weather is going to be fabulous once again. we're a little cool this morning but nothing that we're not used to

charlie crowson off hopefully getting some sleep. with a brand w baby girl. lauren cook, looking at the roads this morning. and of course lynette charles has a check on the weather. >> yes. >> all right, so you said of course the sinkhole is a big story. >> yes and we are actually dealing with a crash right now first crash of the day in northwest baltimore. moreen that in just a few. >> i was like listening and wondering if the fog had something to do wit. not too much fog in that area. north and west howard county as well as frederick. we can see arbutus temperature this morning that's the big story as well. we are very chilly this morning. coming in at 48 degrees. look at the dew point. oh, we are nice and refreshing and dry. 47. but how close they are together. there could be a little bit of patchy fog across that area. the winds are calm and they're not going to be as breezy as they were yesterday. so that's also some good news i have to deliver no you this morning. the temperature in glen burnie at 52 degrees that dew point at 47. and as we go into barnesville. 42 a