this is charlie evans in his speech. this gives you a sense of the tenor of what's happening. the doves are kind of resigned to this rate hike come, and instead it's over the path that he wants to make sure the fed communicates this gradual and shallow path of rate increases. scott. >> why, steve, can't you still be a dove as charlie evans obviously is, and in the same sentence admit the fact that zero interest rate policy may not be appropriate for where the economy is and where we think it's going to go. if you move before you have hit it, then you are telling the public that you are not serious about your insflags rate. >> it will be interesting to see if it's a governor. we'll listen closely to the governor tonight. she has made some very dovish comments about raising rates and being opposed to it or suggested maybe it wasn't an appropriate time. we'll see what she says tonight. >> this notion, quickly, steve, also that the fed doesn't raise rates when the ism is below 50. i think, you know, manufacturers 12% of the economy. i don't think it's enough to derail the fed. at

one dove comes in replacing charlie evans. the bottom line this is that if the average index in 2015 was 4.3, skewing dovish, it still skews dovish but the new index is 4.7. for "nightly business report" i'm steve liesman. >>> the ceo of third avenue management is out. after last week's move to stop investors from withdrawing funds from its high-yield bond fund. the company said it and ceo dave barce have mutual lei greed to separate. the decision to stop withdrawals from its focused credit fund sent shock waves through the market and the mutual fund industry. >> so with the recent dramatic moves in the high-yield market, is your high-yield bond etf or your plain old bond etf or fund safe? ben johnson is director of global etf research at morningstar, and he joins us now. mr. johnson, welcome. good to have you with us. obviously, there are important distinctions between etfs and bond mutual funds. but for this purpose they will function largely in similar ways. what was it about that third avenue fund that got it in such troub

lockhart and williams go away and charlie evans goes away we placed by the boston fed president. bottom line is its an fomc that skews more hawkish. the index value was 4.3. up to 4.7. still on the dovish side of the 50 line but it's a more hawkish fed that may be more inclined to raise rates next year. back to you guys. >> joining us live from philadelphia is the chief investment officer. good morning to you, bob. thank you for getting up early for us. how badly would the market take it if the fed didn't go ahead and hike rates tomorrow? >> the street would be surprised if they didn't. i for one would not be surprised. the odds are as you point out 79%. i have for six months basically seen no justification, economic justification for a fed tightening. we're at basically 2% gdp growth and no inflation. i think the fed boxed itself into a corner by a lot of talking. with former governors and current governors. and i think it's going to happen more than likely. but i think the impact of it is going to be nominal. >> sure. >> and frankly, even moving forward into 16. i don't see int

come in in the center lockhart and williams goes away and charlie evans goes away. bottom line is it is an fomc that skews more hawkish. the index value was 4.3 and goes up to 4.7. still on the dovish side of the 50 line but it's a more hawkish fed that may be more inclined to raise rates next year. >> i wonder if it's telling that the u.s. dollar is at a 7 week low against the euro. i know it's a lot of positions being unwound ahead of the fed. a lot of people said the dollar was going to suffer going into the fed meeting. it was priced for perfection. 76% of the market believes we'll be seeing the first fed hike in a decade tomorrow. >> that's right. that's so much the focus on not are we going to get the lift off but investors are quite cauti s cautious. and the upside we'll see in the green back here but it's interesting. some analysts suggest there's still room for surprise but now we're talking about fomc. >> absolutely and other people argue that maybe the fed is really only going to hike interest rates to be able to cut them again next year. it wouldn't be t

charlie: evan?van: i think you have a lot of undecided voters in iowa and new hampshire, and when it comes time to buy, i think they will come to somebody with more experience and ability. charlie: michael? michael: i find it interesting that trump tweeted today that something like 2/3 of his for him todayote if he ran as an independent. thently, he is not definitive about whether he will do that. when he says something we party establishment finds to be wild, they may be hearing his words in , his comment that as long as he is treated fairly, he will not leave the party and run as an independent, so what does he consider fair treatment, and how careful to republican leaders have to be to make sure he is treated fairly, but this topic is still on his mind. charlie: watching the trump phenomenon -- you are not a political journalist, but a law fromssor, not expected thatyou read and see donald trump is a good chance to be the republican nominee. becauset is frightening of the discourse. i think whate

charlie: but he has this hard core that evan has read about? rk: he has matched the mood of a healthy plurality of the republican electorate. charlie: does he believe it, or is he simply using them in a machiavellian way? do you think he believes in all of this? mark: oh, yeah. some of it is updated for the changing circumstances. immigration, america being strong, a role of the government. charlie: i could tell you 50 candidates that will talk about america being strong. mark: not in the way that he talks about it. >> if you go back and look at the way he was talking in the late 1980's, he talked about japan victimizing the united states, he talked about young criminals running wild in new york city. in some ways, the core of his message is unchanged. he has updated it with new vocabulary. he figured out a long time ago that he could sell a kind of politics with the same sort of mastery that he brings to selling casinos and hotels. there are a group of people out there who will always be happy to buy what he is selling. he just happens to sell

that's something they could of , and someearlier people like charlie evans argue they should have doneher thing is that with all the quantitative easing and bond buying they did after they took great's to, people were concerned about runaway inflation. they did not know how it worked for a long time, so that was baked into the market prices. they might have to be hiking rates a year or two from now because of this inflation they will create. there are a few things going on there, but definitely credit fed communication in hindsight could have served them well. saidi know ben bernanke that for political reasons they had to talk about the idea of executive -- exiting the externally measures from day one. you think that was a costly political concession the fed had to make? >> absolutely. this is been going on since 2013, right? that's when all this started. here we are in december 2015 and they still have not raised rates, so they could have taken their time a little bit longer. joe: thanks, matt. we'll be watching all these things tomorrow and the days ahead. turn into a bloomberg news

on the dovish side we only get eric rosengren replacing charlie evans.e's a little bit less dovish but still very much. if you're in and around this dovish word you're pretty dovish. >> three pronounced hawks compared with one -- >> exactly. >> he was a 7.8 on the hawk scale on a scale of 10. >> 7.4. >> he's a 6. >> these are both 7s. >> these are both 7s. >> this would be the 6 area and your 5s are right here. >> so two doves leave, three doves leave to be replaced by -- >> but you don't have to do the math because i have done the math for you. >> you have. >> which is what i do for a living so you don't have to do the calculations. cue the next thing. here is the 2015 fomc, the average is 4.3. if you're on the other side of 5 you're more dovisdovish. i have shown you where the chair is, 3.7. now take a look at some other characteristics of this. your most dove ish member evans at 2.3. most hawkish lacquer atklacker . the governors are the permanent members. they create a stability around which the board rotates and the presidents are more hawkish. >> i

>> one i think it was charlie evans out today saying they're pulling forward sales. we're not seeing that in term of the people that i talked with in the industry. almost everybody says the same thing. there's no indication here that they are pulling forward sales. what we are seeing are a couple of factors that are troubling and i'm going to say people are taking out loans that long. thing length is a concern. 0% doesn't bother me for the primary reason that we see it advertised everywhere. do you know how many people get a 0% loan that take it out at the dealership? it's 14 or 15%. it's the tease to get you in the store and once you're in there you say i can't really meet all the terms here and the average auto loan rate right now is 4.68%. think about how long that financing is right now. >> great to speak with you, thank you. >> you bet. >> so what is -- why do you stick with this trade if the stocks are flat? >> because i'm paid -- at a time when yields are nowhere, i don't think of these as bonds. the yields are worth sticking around for valuations. companies a

but a different take from chicago fed president charlie evans, who has been dovish. admit to some nervousness about our upcoming decision." joining me for more insight is senior client portfolio manager at oppenheimer funds. also joining us, mike mckee. mike, when you hear charlie say he is nervous, you want to say, hundred are you, how nervous should we -- how nervous are you, how nervous should we be? mike: charlie is nervous about the effect of a decision that has probably for all intents and purposes been made. we don't hear much from janet yellen. she doesn't speak often. the last time she talked about policy was september 24. now she has a speech today, and tomorrow before the joint economic committee of congress. clearly she has some thing to say. for forecast for the year, the fed's forecast for the year, the forward guidance has been a rate increase before the end of 2015. there's only one meeting left. the markets have price it in. she will say, stick with me, we are going there. betty: but not everyone has price it in. ira: the market is about 75% sure, so

first of all, your most dovish is charlie evans. most hawkish is jeff lacker.we'll show you another way to knock this out, and the governors, 4.1, the regional presidents average 3.2. so you see the change there. a little bit more hawkish here and that really gets at the issue of how many rate hikes we will see next year. simon will have more tomorrow when we have 9 full results of the fed survey. >> i have a question for you, steve. a lot of people believe these dots they come out with, that show how interest rates are rise, the market does not believe they will rise anywhere nearly as fast and they will have to come down, when the new hawkish guys get in, will we have a new set of dots? >> that is a great question. everybody's dots are in there voting or not. what will happen is the dots of the voters, which we don't know who is who, unless they tell us, some do, some do not, the net dots or the average dot will be a little higher. that's why we measure this. what will happen is this fomc will have a higher average fed funds rate for next year. i would point

we've heard from charlie evans earlier. he is nervous.s concerned about the natural rate being and suggesting we not go too far too fast it is really going to depend on the data and how it all develops as janet yellen is about to tell us. alix: a perfect segue. janet yellen speaking at the economics club in washington. janet yellen: thank you to the economic club of washington for inviting me to speak to you today. i would like to offer my assessment of the u.s. economy nearly six and a half years after the beginning of the current economic expansion and my view of the economic outlook. i will describe the progress the economy has made to the federal open market committee's goals of and stableloyment prices and what the current situation and the outlook imply for how monetary policy is likely to evolve to best foster the attainment of those objectives. the u.s. economy has recovered substantially since the great recession. the unemployment rate, which ,eaked at 10% in october 2009 declined to 5% in october of this year. at that level, the

we know the doves like the inner circle and there's charlie evans, who, chicago, and it's interestingy shifted the talk. the timing does not matter as much as the trajectory. if they fix that statement and get forward guidance this there, something stan fisher's not wanted, i think they corral the cats and get a unanimous vote. >> saying we're in the countdown, just to work with us, we're in the final countdown? [ laughter ] >> so you can play the music? ♪ >> there you go. there it is. >> you said "the countdown." >> i said it. i've. working with writing things up. you know i love the beaters, joe, and they are always, you know, i think this is hello, good-bye, you know. >> that's not bad. >> i've been writing it for awhile, and ticket to ride, but you know all the terrible underlying about what the beatle songs are about. >> i like the place in england. i think it's a place. >> that's one of the interpretations. >> oh, my. >> look it up on wikipedia. >> oh, my god, diane. >> i know you, joe. i don't want to go there. >> we're going with the song and metaphors, go with my theme from t

evans. back to charlie and gayle in new york. >>> the san bernardino massacre does not fit the pattern of other recent mass shootings. eugene o'connell is a professor john j. college of criminal justice and a former new york police officer. welcome. >> thank you. >> tell us, how do you determine motive? what are the clues that might indicate how this happened and why? >> it's easier today than it used to be because people leave trails, they leave text trails and emails. not always but often. social media, and then you try to figure out who these network with. tremendous interest of course in the wife having come into the country apparently from saudi arabia. any travels they took. very painstaking. it has to be evidence-based. the likelihood is things that come out now will turn out to be erroneous so they need to stay focused and stay on the facts and stay on the evidence. >> facts are very organized. >> they were able to use these weapons in a scary kind of way and they maximized the taking of life. they didn't say anything. they just shot and slaughtered these poor folks. >> what stands out

. >> carter evans, thank you very much. now back to charlie and gayle in new york. >> thank you. >>> the san bernardino massacre does not fit the pattern of other recent mass shootings. who is a prefer at john jay college of justice and is a new york city police officer also. look at what they are looking at and tell us how do you determine motive? what are the clues that might why. >> it's easier today than it trails. they leave text trails and e-mails. not always but often. social media. then you try to figure out who he is networked with and tremendous interest in the wife having come into the country apparently from saudi arabia. any travels they took and it will be very painstaking and it has to be evidence-based and what we want to know right now the likelihood things that come out now will turn out to be erroneous so they need to stay focused and stay on the facts, stay on the evidence. >> facts are they were very organized? >> facts are they were very organized and facts are they were able to use these weapons in a scary kind of way an

charlie: foreign leaders who condemned the comments include british prime minister david cameron, who says they were divisive, unhelpful, and quite simply wrong. joining me is evan osnos, bob