pmi will be important out of china.e china data has been consistent with a little bit of weakness. some possible destabilization. a lot of the many stimulus has worn off. effectalysts think the is fading. might need to. whether they are going to is a different story. the finance minister said don't expect any more stimulus from us. that is not what you will get. >> they will not go for a large package. some people will describe it as stealth stimulus. they do not want the economy to weaken too much, but the reason they are not so worried is you view look at the labor market -- if you look at the labor market, they are no longer having to create so many jobs. really -- they can actually manage with a lower growth rate. why not cut rates? they have a lot of firepower. good question. if you look at the growth of social -- total social finance. it is coming down. 15% year on year. not so far ahead of nominal gdp. the rates are rather tight. factthink it reflects the that the monetary transmission mechanism in china. credit

china pmi data and what is happening in syria. >> coming up, a merging markets are on a streak.inable? we will talk about that. >> time for company news. a bail required by french investigators. the supreme court held up the request made in july for the penalty for money laundering. ubs says they are disappointed and will appeal the ruling and fight the underlying investigation. will close and cut 1700 jobs. they are selling off assets. almost 200 shops have been bought by vodafone. will take 2000 staff members. in ukrainest at risk and russia predicted losses. bad debt charges are rising because of the crisis in the region. it will rise 1.7 billion euros. >> let's go to investment strategy despite heightened volatility. of money managers failed to outperform their benchmarks. themore, let's welcome chief strategist. let's talk about the emerging markets in data that beat estimates. the emerging market index is lower today and has been on a since september. before then, of 20% from february to september. what is going on with emerging market equities? why the recent dip? >> let

profitsly as china pmi declined for the first time in two years. e you also concerned about china and the rest of the region as it percolates? >> yes, we are. i think the chinese economy slowed down and the chinese government is trying to stimulate the economy. i think the rest of asia will go through. on top of that monetary policy there are reasons to worry about weakness here in asia. not bullish on the emerging markets and concerned about them, where are you not concerned and feeling ok about >> the your money echo is doneck market -- it extremely well. monetary policy is being tightened. overall monetary policy is still in favor for the equity market gains. >> we are going to leave it there. is the bp of wealth management outside of singapore. dirty work, trying to live a -- try to earn a living out of one of the most polluted rivers of rubbish. ♪ trash is another man's treasure as the old saying goes. --ever coined that slays that phrase probably did not river in mind.s it is one of the world's most polluted waterways. >> twice eight day -- tw

more than to move others, i guess, when it comes to the pmi numbers out of china.h what else is moving across the markets. >> yes, david saying 51.1, and the estimates from the economist was 51.2, and this was down from the previous figure in july, which was the highest in more than two years, and we will get reaction, and with us is the chief greater economist, and this is pretty much in line, isn't it? >> yes, but we need to also pay for the pmi. a couple of weeks ago, it was quite -- it was significantly lower. sector, and private we also have to pay attention to the other numbers. >> they were shocking, weren't they? >> you probably do not want to land more. and the demand side, the manufacturers, they are very cautious. >> let's just look at this. in 45 minutes, we will get the hsbc reading of the purchasers index, but it does show expansion. we really did not want to read too much into it. >> i think this official pmi is of the largest listed companies, so it suggests that they are still moving at a pace, and we have to keep in mind that in q3, the china gdp

fairly dismal data set from the two china pmi theories published today.e signs coming out of the china economy? abouthas been a concern lending, shadow banking, the amount of credit. there has been a number of key indicators. coming into the third quarter of the year, there was a lot of optimism about china's growth. a lot of that evaporated in july, when we had extremely weak lending figures. the lowest figures for new lending since october, 2008. coming into august, the signs are that that week lending is starting to weigh on the real economy. i talked about the pmi data. have also had export data out of korea. korea's exports, very well aligned. the korea export numbers were disappointing. we had a contraction in korean exports in august. that is a bad sign for china's factory sector. and we had more signs of trouble from the real estate sector. the real estate sector is the main contributor to chinese domestic demand. they say that in china's top 100 cities, house prices fell month on month for a fourth consecutive month in august. pmi data, export da

china's official pmi index was 51.8, the state was 50.2. how is this being taken? manus cranny?the contagion effect from e issues-russian political is really encouraging across europe. manufacturing in the u.k. is down at the lowest level in 14 months. european equities are having a monthstart to the trading of september. we added just under 2% in terms of equity values last month, the best month since the start of the year. manufacturing at a 14 month low in the u.k. italy and germany are contracting in terms of manufacturing. you then go to the structurally changing country of greece and then you have expansion. the numbers tell the story of structural reform. not the rhetoric of what we need to do. it is as if you could hear the coming from france calling for a lower euro. which takes into the biggest call, jpmorgan has released a call on the euro-dollar. along with that, we have goldman sachs who has released their view as well. they have cut their six-month forecast to one dollar 25 from $1.34. parity by 2017. not sure what form of quantitative easing it will take . euro-do

not really budging, coming from the pmi data from china. not so much today. you want to watch out for the euro. already 131.22. the lowest in over one year. rate decisioncb on thursday. expected to keep things unchanged. watch out for comments and guidance is always key language they use. we have this ongoing debate within the eurozone. france wants the ecb [indiscernible] at exactly going along with plan. what we have on thursday, almost at the same time, the bank of england come out with our policy. andere briefly above 166 one point at 9:30 this morning and not really doing a lot. rish, i will send it back to you. >> coming up, what lies by need. how pleasant particles is finding its way into the food chain. next, practice makes perfect. the latest on bridging. "asia edge" returns and a couple of minutes. ♪ >> the first full trial of the exchange went smoothly. brokers working over the weekend and they said mock trades carried out with the no major issues. the unprecedented access in mainland china. on link is expected to start the 13th of october. for mor

mining stocks lead markets lower as investors flash the pmi reading out of china.ario draghi takes center stage today. when he's expected to defend his program in a speech to european lawmakers. >>> fiscal fighting? germany and france are set to clash after g20 leaders turn up the heat. >> a country like germany definitely has a surplus. now the more than they can do the better. >>> the big get even bigger. aliba barks alibaba is now the country's largest ipo as they look to meet surging demand. >> you're watching "worldwide exchange." bringing you business news from around the globe. >>> i'm carolin roth. coming up on the show, europe is asked to up its game as the central bankers move down under for a g20 meeting. we go live to australia. >>> and wall street bracing for climate exchange protests after a huge demonstration in new york. we have all the details. >>> it's cnbc survey time. we're asking how your nation views corporations. are they faceless bohemuths or job creating necessities? that is up next. >>> you're watching "worldwide exchange." bringing you bu

in europe and in china, the pmi --ufacturing data is 30.5 50.5. 50 is the red line. e contracting. in china, it is also 50.5. in the u.s. we are at 58. there is a big difference there. you can see that is rolling over. theall of the concerns, angst about what is happening here in the u.s. in our economy, and considerable time on rates etc., manufacturers you're doing better than elsewhere. >> it is explained to a degree by the slow resurgence of the u.s. economy. companies aren't going to be goods,g more, buying stocking goods, they are going to be spending more on capital goods. play inuld in theory favor of the u.s. or the factoring industry. manufacturing is global as well. much of what american companies might be buying could be, and maybe is coming from overseas -- just not enough of it. is buying aermany company in the u.s.. he says he's going to be moving some of the manufacturing that were in europe are moving here to the u.s.. >> how significant? people love that headline saying we aren't going to be manufacturing in the u.s.. he says they will literally shif

another thing that could be problematic, china housing troubles. we got fresh pmi data out of china that suggests a rebound. but if you look at headlines in china, every day they go from bad to worse. and the question is, does it start to have a ripple effect within the banking sector because so many people in china invest in real estate because they don't really have many other choices? and then let's tell you what's going on with brazil. the data we've just gotten, it's in recession in the first half of the year. the markets in brazil have actually been rallying, because it looks like this woman could actually lose the election. this rally is because the numbers get worse and worse for her every single day. however, what we don't know is the person who succeeds her, marina silva, whether or not she has economic policies, tyler, that would actually help brazil. that's not clear. there was another candidate, he's in third place. >> her politics are what, basically? >> doma? >> yes. >> and the succeeder is somewhat leftist. >> she ran on an environmental platform. s

china september flash, pmi tomorrow morning. >> right. >> lower fit, 2015 gdp goal, idea there will notfforts made by china in terms of perhaps on that front. all of it kind of cited as negative. >> one of the things, our proxy for china, by the way, the casino stocks. a very big downgrade today. a guy threw in the towel with casino stocks. why does it matter? wells. wells very good firm. las vegas, sands and wynn are directly plays. the slowdown in china, it's funny, a lot of people feel what happens happened the end of showy spending. but when you're buying things on the internet in alibaba, no one sees. china's very important here in terms of being able to drive world growth. they take themselves -- don't forget, europe is just a giant began tick market for chinese exports and europe. a lot of people -- a bunch of discussions last week with people about u.s. interest rates and how the fed has to do this and that. no one talks about the fact that the rest of the world is so slow, it doesn't matter what the fed does. maybe the fed could issue a lot of bonds, you know, play off their tr

you have china slowing down pmi numbers overnight proved that once again. you have europe slowing down as we heard from ford they're worried about what's happened there. you had argentina being held in contempt of court. you have potential slowdowns in north america. what happens as you look at the middle east and the chaos there? what's the tipping point? >> yeah look i think this is a question of where does global growth go? the united states has, in many ways decoupled over the last really two years. and the question is whether we can continue to decouple from some of the slowing and the rest of the world. >> what are you saying? >> i think we're just at that point. where if we don't see stabilization in europe if we don't see a stabilization of the china growth rate overall global growth could be in jeopardy for next year. but at this moment i think that we're still optimistic, that the ecb will stabilize europe and that things actually are going to be better a year from now than they are today in terms of the global growth outlook. >> patrick, do you a

pmi later this week as well. the aussie number may have been natural issues. that worth noting production in chinaalized basis. we expect to see pmi modestly weaker but still showing some expansion in the economy. if not, expect to see a lot more stimulation. >> they are going to deliver that no matter what. we talked about this a lot. that is looking at the house price numbers. that number we had on friday was a bit of a shock really. risk as we biggest move ahead? because interesting gauged to some extent the biggest risk as rise of interest rates in the u.s. it is clearly the federal reserve maintaining its language of considerable time that interest rates can remain low. they want to make sure the u.s. economy has sustainable gains going forward. that means they are going to have to be satisfied before they start raising rates. is the firstfor us quarter, second quarter of next year. you look at the earnings in the u.s., pretty solid. we are forecasting 9.8% for the rest of the year, calendar year that is. big contributions from health care, i.t. and telco's. they are really supporting markets

now that we're getting pmi data from europe and china, the iea has revised down demand expectations for those two countries. so we are seeing weakness, stocks building and prices tend to fall off. >> gareth, everyone is, of course, focused on geopolitics and the fact that it hasn't had much impact so far on the oil price, particularly the issues in iraq, syria and also ukraine and russia. >> there was no immediate loss in oil supply and perhaps the positive impact of those is soon abated. but we think the markets, nonetheless, underestablishme underestablishmenting geopolitical risk going forward, in particular around iraq, syria and also russia. more importantly, i think there's a scope for higher prices on the basis that demand tends to increase seasonally as we approach the northern hemisphere winter. we have saudi arabia and opec will adjust itself production in most of the tech prices. some may believe that that is not the case. >> gareth, a lot of taukz on the sanctions that europe is imposing on russia. is it plausible for europe to reduce its independent dependency on russia in

shares of china's exi is hitb a 52-week high reacting to the positive pmi numbers from the private sector in august. let's bring in j.p. morgan's chief emerging market analyst. great to see you. >> hi, pell many lis melissa. it's great to be here. >> why doesn't the stockmarket reflect that at this point? >> actually the stockmarket does reflect that. there has been a dramatic change in the composition of the index. so you have big parts of the index and now growth related, so internet, tech, you have components like telco and energy, which was somewhat independent of the slow down and fixed asset investments that's going to be real feature as we move into 2015. materials are now just 3% of the bench marc. so what we find in emerging markets is our benchmarks are terribly darwinian. the sectors that have problems get de-rated viciously, when you have growth, those sectors become bicker. >> it's brian kelly. tomorrow we have ecb and europe's banks fund a lot of the emerging markets, what's your view if the ecb does qe or hints on that, how will that impact emerging market stocks? >> well,

pmi numbers out of europe and china are not helping sentiment.ive you context on the declines we saw yesterday -- in the s&p 500, 90% of the 500 numbers declined, and 25 out of the dow's 30 constituents lost ground. it was fairly negative, and this was a different take than what we have seen in the past couple weeks with minor pullbacks. >> sure. what seems to be the trigger -- any sense? macro concerns? the domestic and global economy. the china finance ministers signaled there would be no further stimulus even after data came in fairly weak. but we also got existing home sale measures, which showed an unexpected drop in the month of august. that put investors in the mindset of putting -- of being at record high levels for the last couple of months. volatility is still relatively contained even after the vix jumped. >> in terms of what we'll be watching for today? >> it is what you just discussed, this risk-off sentiment circling the globe. straighte for a third day, and bill dudley was speaking at the influential brokers conference, and there i

. >> overnight, china's manufacturing teetering on contraction, same story in europe. ath of those pmi numbers 50.5. when you go below 50, you're contracting. we will get our own read on you as many fracturing at 9:45. the richmond fed gives a read on manufacturing at 10:00. earnings, really only two of note, carnival which is at 9:00 15, bed bath & beyond after the close. >> very good. front and center, a lot of news. let's get to a data check. i almost did not do a second screen. futures negative. less weight than i saw yesterday, euro advancing. hydrocarbons churn. on to the second screen for quick check, dollar-ruble with a focus on syria, a little bit weaker. gold advances this morning, up eight dollars. there is a data check. let me look at the back monitor on what is going on in syria. back 40 years on opec adjusted for inflation. here is the surge. adjusted for inflation. this explains our reliance on a higher price oil. >> despite all the talk about how we might be headed toward energy independence. >> global demand is rising about 1.5% to 2% per year. disabilityo economic in

china had already rolled out some stimulus, to stimulate the economy. i think effect we'll see in the fourth quarter. if that kicks in, i think the whole pmiumber, and the job market will improve in the fourth quarter. >> jackson, premier li keqiang wants the economy to grow at about 7.5% this year. he's underscored the importance of a stable job market, though. how will the latest reading affect his plans? >> well, i think that 7.5% is not set in stone. and i think the first priority now is to stabilize the job market as you already mentioned. so i think if the number doesn't fall below 7.2% or 7.3% they are in no hurry to roll out the projects to stimulate the economy. however, if the jab is worsening quick they will immediately roll out projects to stimulate the economy. >> so what kind of measures are you expecting? >> well, the people's bank of china can always roll out their big guns, such as require rates -- require ratio cults or interest rate cuts. but, as they tend not to abuse this policies, and they have been doing is to grow out microstimulus and relax loans and mortgages to developers. i think they will keep doing this for de

. >> overnight, china's manufacturing teetering on contraction, same story in europe. ath of those pmi below 50, you're contracting. we will get our own read on you as many fracturing at 9:45. the richmond fed gives a read on manufacturing at 10:00. earnings, really only two of note, carnival which is at 9:00 15, bed bath & beyond after the close. >> very good.

china. asia might of dispute that. >> it is all everybody thinks to look at when we look at asia. when we look at the data, when the pmi'sood, we are thinking, are they really good? bad, you must be thinking they are really bad. what is the view? >> i think the view has changed substantially on china in the last year. there was a lot of concern as to whether the governor had the -- government had the polls of what was going on. whether the pace of reform would continue. fast-forward to do it -- to today, on the ground the feeling actionsmore confident are taken to sustain growth to deal with things that could and start tobbles develop a sustainable economy the rest of the world needs. companyven't seen any without the back of it. is it realistic to bring it to a soft landing? are we being too optimistic? think in every emerging market it is too optimistic to think you will get a sustained upward trajectory without bumps in the road. china andg now in what we're seeing with suggest there would be some bumps, but they are survivable and manageable with a careful focus on selecting the right investments and watching the reg

china. the slowdown in chinese activity provide more evidence at the second largest economy to be cooling. the official manufacturing pmi from the 27-month high reading of 51.1 in august, just shy of the reuters forecast of 51.2. meanwhile, the hsbc market slipped to a three-month low of 50.2, so barely clinging on though to that expansion territory above 50. the asian markets shrugged off the data. some analysts suggested that beijing will need to step in with further easing measures. >> and with debt levels in china near 250% of gdp according to recent estimates, is the country at risk for default? samantha laura is here with more. >> reporter: this is reminding us of china's level of debt. the report is pointing out that china's debt to gdp ratio is at 250%. and as you can see, that's slightly better than the u.s. and the u.k. and certainly a lot better than japan, but as a developing economy it has accumulated debt at lightning speeds. and countries like argentina have been sitting in the same position as the gdp ratios leading to financial crises. we know that beijing used credit during the financial crisis of 2008

china is still on track for 7.3 are to 7.5gdp growth. your rap, yeah, growth is very pep ted to say the least. pmi is still in expansionary road.ed, back and forth, hawkish, dovish. keep something in mind. my mind the fed has been hawkish since january 2014 and we started year at 1800 in the s&p 500. david: fed hawkish? some people might debate you on that one, larry. >> that's okay. >> larry gave as you perfect segue showing how far the s&p has come. david: indeed he did. our next guest predicted that. every year he reveals predictions for the year. after last year's market rally, byron wein thought the s&p could post a 20% total return this year. liz: so far the s&p is up 7.4%. so with just over three months left before the end of the year, is he revising his call, or do stocks still have more room to run? joining us now, byron wein, blackstone advisory partners vice-chair. are you tweeting that at all or watching calendars and saying come on? >> the fourth quarter is usually good every year, particularly in midterm election years it is good. liz: do you look at that prediction and say it has been the fifth year now of a big

pmi data was weak as well. i think this is going to tip the balance toward additional stimulus for the chinese economy. >> ok, thanks for the reporting. tom orlik out on the china data. coming up, eu leaders vow to hit russia with sanctions. will russia change course in ukraine? now reached aict point of no return? we will take a closer look. any market relevance here? we will find out. ♪ >> welcome back. you are watching "the pulse." let's get back to our top story. the eu vows to slam sanctions on moscow as the ukrainian president, difficult to read there, said that the conflict has reached the point of no return. russia on the brink of a full-scale war? we are already in a war, aren't we? this feels like a war, looks like a war. that is where we are now. >> by all accounts, it is a war. thatems that gradually, position that this is an internal rebellion has been updating. -- abating. increasingly, references to a state of war. the though everybody saw policy makers short of calling it an invasion because of the implications of escalating the sanctions against russia. but they do call it a military aggression. they call it incurred in. -- incursion. >> if you

china over the weekend. -- wevernment had already can is had already been signaled. we had some fairly low reasoning -- greetings from the pmir august, but the extent of the slowdown showed industrial output data was really quite surprising. growth inon year industrial output. that is the lowest since the financial crisis. even more troubling, electricity output, which many people look at as the true gauge of what is going on in china's industrial sector, contracting 2.2% year on year. fairly difficult to digest it out of china over the weekend suggesting that the 7.5% target for full-year gdp growth might be out of reach. to read theomething national bureau of stats putting out a statement explaining their interpretation of these numbers, and what did they have to say about it? >> that was a bit of a surprise. normallyovernment is quite tightlipped, but in the last couple of months, we have had two separate government departments who felt moved to send out notes explaining weakness in the data, first and july when the people's bank of china put out a note explaining why total social finance had plummeted so far, and over th

china is a tougher. they are trying to manage the short-term bonds and the cycle. we have seen quite a bit of stimulus in the last few months. these other pmiounced. production --ial you saw industrial number productions bounce. it does highlight that they are scaling back on stimulus. i don't think you are going to see a whole new set of measures trying to boost overall demand. most of the measures you are going to say likely to be targeted at the housing market, because that is the one area which is still worsening, and if anything, worsening at an accelerating pace. that is quite worrying when you think about the scale of the property bubble that there has been in china. they seem to be propping up various parts of the economy, but not real estate. they must be rather worried about how they are going to prevent this from really causing water damage across the economy -- broader damage across the economy. >> we will get measures on thursday. thank you for that preview, chief economist of the bank of singapore. thanks so much, richard. are forcedthousands from their homes in cashmere after one of the worst floods in decades. you will have

pmi is run by hsbc. people think the manufacturing index is a bellwether of the economy. they think china is a bellwether of the economy. we've shown over the last two years that manufacturing is performing counter cyclely to the economy. so this idea that you can wake up and check the china manufacturing gauge and see where china is going, it's wrong. it's been wrong for a long time. it's important to look at the multiple sector and then the credit environment, you can understand it's not just one proxy. >> sth is not as exciting at chicken and beer. why is everybody so crazy about the iphone in china? >> prestige. they can't get it. >> how big of the black market is this? are we talking about hundreds of these devices, tens of thousands? >> who knows. but if you went to the grand central store the other morning, you had crowds lined up, a lot of them chieb owes because i could hear the mandarin. people are coming over here just to get the phone. >> they're flying here to get the phone and take it back? >> looks like it. >> leland, thank you for joining us. next time bring us some batter

china would tell you if europe doesn't turn around, we've got no place to put the stuff we do export. it's russia. it all started with russia. we could have been up today with that chinese pmi. chinese was okay. we are looking at a self-inflicted wound between the tensions in western europe and russia, and as it gets colder, all i hear about over and over is gazprom shutting down the west. david crane talking about solar power in germany. europe is powered by natural goods. natural gas comes from russia. if they don't get a settlement here, if the tensions continue, europe does go down minus one, minus two. that means china, just the reverberations. >> the bear market is in commodities. event lu, you would think what a great beneficiary we are. >> the stuff i saw yesterday on the nasdaq had nothing to do with commodities. >> that was a lock-in feel. yesterday was a very bad hangover. there was a big belief that alibaba did well. we are in great shape. alibaba did well, everything is good. with the exception of mobile eye and go pro, the news was all bad. apple was such a buy. no one wanted to touch it. alibaba, you take $92 and $68. this stock can trade down to around $84,