yet again we have more focus back on china trade data, very weak trade numbers being exhibited. to give you an idea of some of the numbers that came out, china witness 4d.4% drop in export weakest year on year number since january 2017 7.6% drop in imports and certainly investors are eyeing the trade data very, very closely. shanghai is 3/4 percentage point. stoxx europe is down let's move on and talk about some of the individual markets specifically and starting off with the ftse 100, down half a percentage point very important 48 hours coming up in this country we know that today the prime minister is expected to deliver statement at 3:30 p.m. and expected to go over some assurances regarding the backstop very contentious issue as far as the vote is concerned. it will take place tomorrow. it's not expected to go through the house of commons investors will eye what happens from there onwards we'll talk more about that on the show the picture for the rest of the european markets is also very much in the red. fste-mib is down .9% we have nothing trading in the green this morning

other point of the china trade data is weakness out trade with china and europe more than the u.s. point that the u.s. economy itself still okay. >> seems fine. and i do think you're right that basically traders could have overextrapolated the chinese numbers and pressuredthe market we have seen this pattern in the last few weeks where any weakness in the morning tends to be picked up and you have had strong rotation and the growth stocks weak today. apple down almost 2% and you definitely had some weights in there but i think it's an inconclusive day rather than a day saying is this rally in jeopardy? >> jim, where are you on this market that, you know, still off 12% from the highs big downturn big comeback still lower. >> we still haven't solved anything technically and saying that every time i come on this show but it's still true and you mentioned levels, 2600 on the s&p as it's a technician's dream and then sells off a little bit 200-day moving average to overcome for the indices, as well yet we are well above the lows and we're starting to see some stronger closes. i would me

trading in china. haidi: china trade numbers on top. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ rishaad: 9:00 a.m. in shanghai. china is set to release its latest trade datacts of the trade war be closely watched. >> the company says it has been brought into just -- disrepute rishaad:. rishaad:blaming -- disrepute. rishaad: blaming the shutdown on president trump.

. >>> cnn business, global stock marp kets are lower as investors reacts to china's trade data. t this, china's trade surplus hit a record high last year because people rushed to buy goods before tariffs in this trade war took hold. according to trade data released monday, china reported a $323 billion plus -- surplus, and that is merry christmas lost $323 billion, that is the way the president views trade deficit. it could erode further with new tariffs on hold. we'll wait and see. on wall street, futures are lower. you see a 200 point decline or so from the dow. the dow barely moved friday, but rose nearly 2% for the week last week. the s&p zch cloclosed up 2.5. a strong week for tech. all three snapped a five day winning streak on friday with that kind of lousy performance. general motors led the way higher on the s&p 500, it was up 7% after upgrading its profit outlook. >>> bud light wants to win over calorie conscious beer drinkers saying that they would add nutritional information to bud light packages. it will be the first u.s. beer to display the nutritional facts on its

china's trade surplus jumped to $57 billion and china's exports to the u.s. in particular declined by 3.5% and surplus with u.s. was the highest on record going back to 2006. the datals us that overseas shipments have been affected by the trade dispute. also companies aren't front loading their shipments anymore. so, the practice of asking the retailers asking exporters here to rush some of the orders happened earlier in the year global growth is also softening. another interesting point, brian, is that domestic demand also isn't picking up. that's one of the reasons why you saw so much negative sentiment in the stock markets over here today. >> maybe here as well. eunice, thank you very much. >>> now let's turn to washington the government shutdown entering its 24th day is there any sign of a break in the impasse? susan mcginest live. >> good morning. no sign of a break in the stalemate as of this morning democrats continuing to insist open that government first and then we can talk border security but either way, they say they're not going to fund a wall the only glimmer of hope happened with a suggestion over the weekend from high-ranking republican senator lind

. >> china's latest trade data reafirms that the economy here continues to decline. december export as well as import figures missed expectations and exports dropped 4.4% from a year ago andts analxpected it to fall to a 3% rise. imports shed 7.6% versus the forecast of 5% growth. china's trade surplus jumped to 7 billion. exports slid 3.5% to the u.s. and surplus highest on record going back to 2006. a few important points from the data. riffs are hurting exporters. companies front loaded orders which will taper o. mand globally is softening. shipments to.s the u. were the only ones affected. domestic demand is struggling more than expected despite effort by the authorities to stimulate growth. expectations are that beijing will have to sed up the policy easing and other measures t boost the economy and that president donald trump could use the record tradeurplus to pressure beijing as part of the trade negotiations. >>> adding to those global he cerns, s.is a key vote in united kingdom. it could determine the country's economic and political future. we have a repor

what's happening with the global economy picking up once again as we got weaker than expected china trade data>>> overnight in asia, japan's nikkei was closed for coming of age day. they fell after the government data showed december exports and imports both fell unexpectedly the hang sang off by 1/3%. shanghai that is off by .7%. kospi down by 5% of the three major averages the biggest decliner is the cac off by 1%. the dax is off by .75% stocks are weaker in italy and spain. look at what's happening with the treasury markets here. yield last week sitting above 2.7% for the ten-year and this morning falling below that to 2.655% >>> just happened the last hour, newmont mining buying goldcorp for $10 billion in all stock for stock deal to create the largest gold company in the world in terms of reserves and resources. there's been a lot of consolidation in this industry, barrett gold bought rand gold happening in september so we will watch for this. warren buffett won't be interested in this because he doesn't like gold. >>> in corporate news the ceo of utility company pg and e has stepped down

set, the import expert data shows that is the case that might sort of embolden the trump administration cast for more from china and to feel like it has an advantage in the tradeaw that 2018 data, china had a trade surplus with the u.s. and that has been the bane of trump's existence is this trade deficit the u.s. has from china. it buys a lot more from china that sells. i think that might motivate trump administration to really -- and these talks and go after some of those hard issues is looking for. they could beally discussing that when the vice from your comes to the u.s. january 30 and 31st. what are we expecting for those higher-level discussions? week we had talks between mid-level officials, some u.s. diplomats went over to beijing and from what we heard, they sorted out some issues about china maybe purchasing a bit more agricultural goods and some lng. they didn't really make a lot of progress on the u.s. demand for economic changes to china's economy on state subsidies, intellectual property practices and so that kicked the can forward to the visit which we are expecting at the end of january. this is really going to be a month out from when the dea

china trade talks ongoing. brexit uncertainty i think the key is the weak international data, the china trade data was poor on importsoduction was weaker than expected we're not going to get some economic data if this continues in the united states even some stuff this week, jpmorgan over the weekend, they lowered the global growth forecast, not a surprise look at the european luxury stock, the china slowdown story, you see it in the international stocks, the big luxury names, hermes, kerring, down 2% or 3% now. citigroup turned positive briefly. they had a lower taxes and expenses revenue miss for them though they were down 28% last year i guess everybody -- i call people at the end of the week saying going to buy bank stocks. they said, why, why should we buy them they had their earnings increased every quarter last year and we got our head handed to them. everybody says to me, you know, bob, the kbe is down 21% last year we had all the right stocks, we had all the right regionals against whatever one you want to play against and we got our head handed to you. you know what we buy we buy fin tech, mastercard, visa,

asia-pacific markets set for a mixed monday after their best week since november, earnings and china's latest trade data may's brexit d

trade optimism we seem to be feeling. today we are focused on the data out of china. the has taken the wind out of the trade story a little bit. proxies for china also on the slide. the australian dollar. maybe not such an outside move. money coming out of emerging-market currencies as we see that trade data. interesting the you want us strengthening. goldman sachs picking up their forecast for where the chinese currency can go to. difficult for gains if we see futures in the u.s. as negative as they are. the s&p has retraced, gone up the near bear market losses it made at the end of last year. oil prices also on the slide. let's talk about brexit. we are going to have a big week talking about brexit. the moment of truth is nearing for theresa may's plan. the prime minister's warning brexit may not happen if her deal is voted down. latest attempt to win support for a deal. jeremy corbyn said he is ready to call a no-confidence vote in theresa may. >> if she does lose that vote, do you immediately put out a vote in no-confidence for the government? table the motion at a

what we are looking at is basically the china trade data showing a worse than expected slump.ncerns about global growth. we await that theresa may speech in about half an hour. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. i am tom keene in london with francine lacqua for the week. a little bit going on with constitutional process in the united kingdom and a little bit in america. your monday birthing -- your monday briefing, here is first word news. >> foreign trade slumping at the end of the year, experts down more than 4% in december imports. both are the worst results since 2016. the u.s. and china expressed optimism before mid-level trade talks wrapped up. one of president trump's allies once the government reopen on a temporary basis to see if a deal on the border wall can be reached. if congress cannot reach an agreement in three weeks, the president should declare a national emergency. the partial closure is now 24 days in and the longest shut down in u.s. history. president trump is warning turkey not to attack kurdish forces in syria. the pre

it's china trade policy and what's happening with earnings season you mentioned earnings season. china we got the manufacturing data the fed is a factor. as we weigh all of those, in the first two to three months of this year, we'll have developments on all of those fronts how important is it to the markets for that >> very important. it's all the usual suspects. the fed, trade, dysfunction in washington you have a shutdown now. likelihood that nothing will happen legislatively over the next couple of years i'll add one added thing you have a wave of socialism in america today. you had a candidate announce that she wants to change corporate structure. that's got to strike fear in the hearts and mines of ceos or shareholders >> as we talk about the developments in washington, are they as much of a factor in market sentiment as other ones we know trade is the overriding policy decision now that will affect markets the most. how much of the markets -- in other words, how much of a pop or drop do we get from negative trade headlines versus fed headlines, versus economic headlines? >> the news cycle will drive in the sh

data from china. you talked about slightly softer data in the u.s. does this provide a strong impetus for both sides to figure out trade disputes >> i think we're seeing those signs before the latest set of data we are beginning to get the middle to end phase of the position what won't be solved is the longer-term stra tretegic shiftn american thinking about property theft, about technological dominance or otherwise >> just to stick with the u.s. what do you think the shutdown over there means for the president, for his decision on trade? is that a factor to resolve things and restore confidence in the market >> i think it helps. it detracts attention from trade. there's political issues to be overcome it does help get the agenda rolling forward in a more bipartisan way let's not forget about intellectual security, that has broad bipartisan support i don't think that changes, but it helps both to get the discussions on trade moving forward in a more constructive way and to get the debate domestically more focused on infrastructure which is something both sides of the house can find agreement on. >> picking up about the importance of intellectual prope

the topics committed china trade and weakening global data. let's get smarter. smart cities coming your way. we talked to a ceo about disruption, energy storage, and the power mix. ♪ alix: welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge," focused on companies, the hottest commodities with the smartest voices in the business. we want to kick it off with our take on the big story. today, it is a dramatic selloff in 2018. take on the big story. commodities close-out the worst year since 1986. what happens now? we have the team. the one exception is the route of gold in december. prices rose 4.5 on safe haven buying. does that continue? >> people seem to think it will. you have a volatility in equities, uncertainty between china and the u.s., trade war, and the weakness in the dollar. all those equal upside for gold. you have gold highest in six months. you can keep going with etf inflows, precious metals have the best among commodities. it looks like more for gold is on the way is on the way as long as the volatility stays in the market. alix: it was the physically backed e

president donald trump has said his government would soon reach a deal with china to end a tit for tat trade war well this is new data showed the trade dispute between the two countries is taking its toll on the chinese economy china's exports of fall into the lowest point in two years while imports are also down between your reports from beijing. the world's largest trading country has been trading a little less according to china's customs administration exports fell by four point four percent in december while imports were at their lowest levels in twenty sixteen concerns for the year ahead underlined at a news conference in beijing there are loonies in two thousand and nine the biggest the worry for china's foreign trade is to the complex and grim external environment uncertain and stable factors a stew numerous protectionism. them from certain countries are raring their heads from a slowdown in global demand and the continuing trade dispute with the united states are being blamed for the current predicament china find itself in china and the us are midway through a ninety day truce in the tit for tat trade war w

so we'll look to more data coming ahead next week on monday, foreign exchange reserves coming out from china on tuesday, tradeata the latest numbers coming through from december. we've seen a ramping up or front-loading of a lot of the numbers ahead of the turn of the year with this 90-day trade truce ongoing, it will be interesting to see what those trade numbers turn out to be the december figures coming out on tuesday we'll get the latest china inflation figures released on wednesday. back to you. >> emily, thank you very much for joining us that's emily tan >>> well, as i'm sure many of you know, manchester city premi champions. they don't appear to be giving up that title without a fight. they beat liverpool 2-1 last night and they narrowed their gap to four points adam reed expert on liverpool joins us around the desk this was the first time liverpool lost this season >> this season in the premiere league, yes. they did go 20 games unbeaten in the premiere league. you would think it would come to an end sometime. they were the ones to inflict the first defeat of the season on manchester city last season

in particular, some of the recent data from china has been horrific. the reason tradeata has been especially bad. if that is a harbinger of things to come in china, i think that is the key thing to keep an eye on. the fed is obviously important. --china is undergoing it is bad news for em. guy: kind talk about the sequencing around this? what we are getting a lot of right now is common is reporting the impact they are feeling in the slowdown. we have seen this in a series of numbers cap. you look at the apple numbers. that trend is clear. that is yesterday's news. what do you -- what are you seeing in terms of real-time indicators telling us about how much stimulus is going into the chinese economy and how effective that is and when the stimulus starts to have a meaningful impact? >> part of the problem with checking shifts in china's economy, the data themselves is unreliable. ordinarily would not create much movement. we have our own measure of china's economy. it shows things are slowing but not collapsing. in terms of the size of the stimulus, one thing that is cle

the top picks amid a china trade war and weakening data. let's get smarter.ity is coming your way. thateak to williams disruptions energy storage in the power macs. -- power macs. >> i am alix steel, welcome to bloomberg commodities edge.

yvonne: some are saying this week are traded at we got out of china -- weaker traded or change -- trade dataes everything we got out of china. does that signal that chinese demand has peaked? >> when it comes to china, we need to -- trade wise, we have very good trade numbers towards the end of the year. for the front loading issues, it's over. we have some payback. great in theo first quarter. do not get me wrong. the first quarter does not look great. if you look at the underlying commodity numbers, they were not that bad. let's look at crude oil. solid intake from china. we expect that to continue. maybe not 10% growth. digit growthsingle for this year. if you look at copper, for example, copper demand has been very, very good. import demand as well. we have some issues. availability was not there. that is why we have seen solid imports. overall, the commodity side held up very well. cold wind down but it -- coal went down. that should come back. in terms of iron ore, that was pretty flat, but what do you expect? the government was focusing at least on the policy side to restrict activiti

tour continue our global of the week's top business stories in china, where downbeat trade data providedhe latest indication of an economic slowdown. inchinese trade slumped december, underlining the impact of the trade war and an economic slowdown. the numbers are the worst since 2016, with both exports and imports falling from the year-earlier. what did the numbers tell us? are think the key takeaways amountowing domestic coupled with slowing global demand is hurting the export sector. do not expect this to turn around anytime soon. member this is just the latest software eating on china's economy -- soft reading on china's economy after slumps in retail sales, factory prices. the manufacturing sector is softer as 2019 gets underway. taxes on a larger scale to help the slowing economy. the statement follows a series of weak data we got. saying monetary policy will remain prudent, but flexible. they will try to make sure there is a reasonable amount of liquidity in the system. we have seen measures to ensure there is additional liquidity being pumped into the bank. there will be measure

trade talks. factory inflation data from china as well. the yen, safe havens are big.of a risk off tone. the bti, taking a breather after bursting into a bull market. perhaps markets a little bit pute optimistic on opec out cuts. by the way, not a huge number of companies -- 10 year yields. as to whether the auctions are going to be tougher to get away. when it comes to the euro stocks , we are just seeing reflected what is going on in u.s. equity markets. bond sales are also important. aboutd i are talking china's trade talks with the usa. they saidthe comment yesterday, the detail level of discussions, what does that do to markets? team.n join the mliv the guest host this morning, still with us. it seems as if we have lit a torch on a relief rally for sino u.s. relations. .his could be a kicker they do a had worked deal but it is not going to be the end all of trade issues. what do you make of that proposition? wax -- >> our view is the chinese need a trade deal more than the trump administration. that has already been signaled. if you look at the policy decisions an

let's continue our global tour of the week's top business stories in china, where downbeat trade datavided the latest indication of an economic slowdown. >> chinese trade slumped in december, underlining the impact of the trade war and an economic slowdown. the numbers are the worst since 2016, with both exports and imports falling from the year-earlier. what do the numbers tell us? a slowdown, or a slowdown because of the trade concerns? >> i think the key takeaways are the growing domestic amount coupled with slowing global demand is certainly hurting the export sector. do not expect this to turn around anytime soon. another key takeaway to remember is this is just the latest soft reading on china's economy after a string of soft numbers on slumps in retail sales, factory prices. the manufacturing sector is somewhat softer as 2019 gets underway. >> china will cut taxes on a larger scale to help the slowing economy. say itc policy officials is flexible as challenges facing the company -- the statement follows a series of weak data we got. >> the pboc saying monetary policy will remai

you could join me for global stocks have had a wobbly start to twenty nineteen week data from china and fears its trade dispute with the u.s. will continue well into the new year have investors on edge just minutes into trading the dow fell one and a half percent later regaining losses but the volatility well traders experience that at the end of the year and it could be here to stay in europe germany's dax only inched into positive territory as trading was coming to an end some asian stocks fell by as much as four percent. well let's go over to our financial correspondent now a u.n. score to firstly gains happy new year to you i hope you had a better start to twenty nineteen than the dow is worrying investors. yeah happy new year and at some point it looked like we might see the worst start to him into a new years since nineteen eighties three when two chips lost almost four hundred points in value and then was no obvious reason the market turned and ended even slightly to the upside so as i said we had no clear reason for this swing we saw technologists or shares financial stocks trading to the upsid

china u.s. trade conflict and the data isn't much better from within the eurozone only very modest growth in the euro zone. especially in france and italy germany is two and a half year low. actually i'm the only one really breaking up manufacturing is the u.k. head of breadth and getting ready for that but it may just be about germany isn't doing as bad as the rest of europe and that's what's driving the castors to the little bit of hope of entry into germany bit of hope with beginning of the year the thank you very much focused inputs. but german telecommunications provide a dodgy telecom has filed a lawsuit against the country's network agency the company's protesting preconditions for participating in an external ration mobile network frequency auction the agency stipulated that biggest for five g. mobile frequencies must invest to expand the country's mobile network and potentially allowed new entrants to use their infrastructure the move means all three of germany's main network operators have now sued to the agency seeking to determine the legality of such pre-conditions the deadline for

let's check in on today's trading action now broadly lower across the board this week trade data from china sparked fears of a global economic slowdown. stocks no longer pull down by the banking sector montepaschi siena in particular -- it shares were suspended as they dropped eight and a half percent technology shares were down trade as well currency markets and in particular the pound sterling will be tuning in its tomorrow's brags that vote in the u. k.. wall street in the red as well as earnings kit season kicks off their corporate profits rose rapidly for most of twenty eighteen and investors will be looking to see if the fourth quarter figures wrap up the year on a similar high note. citigroup shares up 4% as its revenue staff salaries. moving on some days other business headlines now. carlos ghosn's wife has written to human rights watch asking them to shine a light on what she described as her husband's harsh treatment in a japanese jai. carol gone alleged her husband is being denied his medication and being held in the unheated cell. disgraced order titan has been under arrest for

the economic data is still ok, and the story around china is improving as well. not the data, but the trade story. some of the news you have heard this week, is it inconceivable we could have a deal where the united states rolls back tariffs on china and the chinese pledge to get rid of the imbalance with the united states? ms. jones: executing on that might be hard. obviously we could pull back the tariffs pretty easily, but actually ending up with china buying enough to eliminate the trade deficit in a really short period of time is a high order. but moving in that direction removes the negative. if you remove the tariffs, that improves sentiment amongst a lot of businesses and removes and -- removes an implement to trade and to gdp growth globally. so it would be a positive to get something. jonathan: eric? mr. stein: in the short term there's a lot of incentive from the trump administration perspective and the chinese perspective to end the so-called trade war and get a deal and i -- and we see that markets like it. but i think about the u.s. trade deal, it's not just trade of goods. it

our top stories: affected by the global slowdown and a trade war with the us, latest data shows china's economy is slowing at a rate not seen for almost three decades. what next for brexit? theresa may prepares to unveil her latest proposals to parliament, but the divisions remain. what we are now getting are some of those who were always absolutely opposed to the result of the referendum trying to hijack brexit, and in fact steal the result from the people. tear gas and clashes in greece as thousands rally against the macedonia name deal. and the stargazing treat set to dazzle the night sky. the lunar eclipse worth waiting up for. this is the scene live from the griffith observatory in los angeles. china says its economy grew last its slowest in almost three decades. the figures reflect the continuing slowing of the world's second—biggest economy, which is not only struggling with the effects of a slowdown in global growth, but is also embroiled in a trade war with the united states. analysts say these figures are the worse since the world financial crisis a decade ago. the bbc‘s robin

let's start with data from china, fears trade disputes -- the dow fell 1.5%, regaining some losses.olatility traders experienced at the end of the year could be here to stay. in europe, inchin into positive territory as trading came to an end. some asian stocks fell by as much as 4%. we are joined from the frankfurt stock exchange. is this will we can expect this year? >> to me, ben, with first day of trading looks like a gigantic hangover from trying to drown out all the worries from 2018 viewed but it is not working. we are still seeing the same problems and we are probably going to continue to see the same problems. worries over the trade relationship within the u.s. and china and how that might affect other countries in asia as well as in europe. also, more u.s. politics going to influence the markets, like donald trump tweets and the government shutdown. and brexit here in europe will cause more concern. even know the italian government just managed to turn the corner at the end of the year with its budget, we may still want to have a close look at that. ben: exactly, because i

the mood music has improved and saysconomic agency locator the story around china's improving as well, not the data, but the trade story. some of the news you've heard this week, visiting conceivable we can have a deal where the united states rules back tariffs on china and the chinese pledge to get rid of the imbalance with the united states? executing on that might be hard. we could pull back tariffs pretty easily but ending up with china buying enough to eliminate the trade deficit in a really of time is a high order but moving in that direction removes the negative. if you remove the tariffs, that improves sentiment amongst a lot of businesses and removes impediments to trade and to gdp risk globally. it would be a possibility to get something. mr. stein: in the short term there's a lot of incentive from the trump administration perspective to end the so-called trade war and get a deal and i ,hink about the u.s. trade deal it's also a tech war. who is going to control technology going forward -- made in china 2025, those issues will be with us for a lot longer. we could solve the trade war longer-term and the

china growth data, even though we have seen a slowdown to 2009 levels. s&p futures also on the back foot. showing a divergence in asia. it seems for s&p futures, the focus is the tradeks and the sticking point of ip theft. manus? manus: yeah, it is. and if you look at the underbelly in the data of china, maybe not as tortured as we think. you've got the hang seng in the high. wti there having shale slowdown. cable, flat as a pancake. we need to find out what plan b is. we've been rising for week six of agreeing on the scene for cable. we'll find out what plan b is later on. in regards to that data, good or bad news for the global equity markets. join the debate with id plus tv on your bloomberg. let's get bloomberg business flash. annabel: thanks. italy's communications regulator turned down telecom italia's plan to separate it's in line record .china's economy slows to of -- analysts estimated the value of the network at 15 billion euros. the model three across europe. deliveries are expected to start next month. europe is priority for elon musk, twice as large as the u.s. he cited sales in europe and china as the main reason he isn't concerned about a potenti

new data showing china's trade surplus with the u.s. surged to a record $323 billion in 2018 and that's a 17% jump from the previous year. but analysts point out that the imbalance was fueled by chinese exporters racing to fill orders ahead of the march 1st deadline for additional tariff hikes. both sides are preparing for the next rounds of negotiations in washington at the end of the month. cheryl: what was good news may not be -- actually, it's bad news. that's the flip side of the data. the trade numbers are he depresg asian stocks and is putting pressure on u.s. futures. we're down 201 on the dow, s&p nasdaq in the red as well. todd horowitz is here and, again, what you would think would be a record surplus for the chinese seems to be the underlying current seems to be bad news. the economy is weakening and they front-loaded a lot of exports to the u.s. because of the trade fight. what do you make of this data we got from the chinese? >> good morning, cheryl. again, i don't even really care about the data. i don't look at the data.

trading in 2019. is a less than auspicious start. let me show you how fraught it is, from equities to currencies, you have the official pmi's and private manufacturing data in contraction in china. that is knocking the msci asia-pacific, the worst start to the trade year since 2016. aussie dollar is ground zero for the trade data. since 2016. you are looking at the market flipping around. we went from a rate hike in november, down to a cut in australia. the translation of this into the crude market, the very epicenter . if you are worried about global demand, oversupply, this is the personification of where markets are. equities are down, oil is down, crude is down. what does it take to get an opec emergency meeting? that is a question i put to the markets. let's check in on asian markets. yvonne has the context. day, if you want to put 2018 behind us, it looks like the same thing we are doing in 20. equity markets, a sea of red, the worst start since 2016. hong kong as well, the hang seng index down 2.7%. the nikkei is still closed. pmi numbers have disappointed in data weut also with the got on the asia side, malaysian seenas the weakest we have . south korean pmi in contract

trade negotiations. it is good the data is getting better. the focus is on trade talks. guy: thank you. giving us some updates on where we are with the china trade story. joining us right now in the studio is mike bell. how important is it we get a deal? >> pretty important. lot of the deterioration you have seen it is hard to work out how much of that can be attributed to the slow down. the fall you have seen in the say as, it is safe to good part of that is due to the concerns around trade. were you to get a deal, optimism picks up. early.ar too guy: how much of the rally do we see? how much is hard to say. is partly hope of a trade deal and the market pricing in the fact the fed will not hike this year. a rally seen a bit of on the back of the hope you might get a trade deal which may or may not come to fruition. there are risks you could see trey not go as well as the market is hoping for. -- see trade not go as well as the market is hoping for. the fed is likely to hike twice. if we get a trade deal, the fed goes because you do not have the drag on the economy. if we do not get a trade deal, the fed does not. they do not seem to be on

but more cautious about the economy global growth is less synchronized with china slowing down and data mixed from europe. trade has increased uncertainty for business and meanwhile, the economic cooperation and development. the oecd, slow growth and momentum on average from 38 countries it monitors globally including china and u.s. and ninth group in a row the positive leading indicators have declined while the sixth month in a row for the u.s. but the level at a pretty high level, just below 100 99.6. >> what's the basis for her saying this is the last of the cycle? >> she thinks just about done. >> slowing economic growth >> slow economic growth and nearing that neutral mark. i think that's something the market missed. getting all hung up here two or three if they did two or three, that would have been the end. to the point where they would have ended at a rate which is where they normally cut to in other cycles so however excited you might have gotten, they're going to 3 from 2.25. it's the charts at the bottom. >> 2.25, 2.5 >> 2.75. >> that's where we are now >> so one more rate hike up to 3. thank you, st

trading day of 2019. the markets have been open just a couple of minutes. already, look at that, the dow down more than 350 points, driven, we believe, by china's economic data and the report that president trump's trade representative is worried that his boss will accept a bad deal from china. joining me now for the latest is cnbc's dominic chu, also brendan gre greel greeley. give us the latest on what's happening there. >> there is concern about an economic slowdown and it's driven by the data out of china. that data showed that the chinese manufacturing economy contracted, slowed down for the first time in 19 months, adding to worries that the trade sk skirmish, the trade war, whatever you want to call it, is finally taking its toll not just on our shores here but on the chinese shores as well. you add that to the overall feeling of the stock markets at the end of last year, remember, 2008 is the last time we saw losses as steep as we saw in this past year of 2018. mix all that together and that's the sentiment we have going into 2019. still a lot of unknowns about a lot of the economic data front, chris. >> and yet the president is optimistic he will ma

trade war have reduced. in the meantime, what impact is having? focusing on china, the latest manufacturing datast the latest manufacturing data is still weakest in 2017. can we draw conclusions that this is all about trade tariffs? not really. the chinese economy has slowed since the second half of 2018 and if you look into the detail, most of that is domestic. i would argue that essentially on the back of a tightening of the monetary policy as ageing has been using as a leveraging campaign since 2016. that is now starting to bite on the real economy. the trade tariff does not have that much economic impact. china's trade with the us has continued to increase because the us has been frontloading there are exports trying to eat the imposition of tariff. so far we have seen the trade war impacting financial markets and hurting investment sentiment but not so much on the economy. i think it will be very different in 2019. eventually these ta riffs different in 2019. eventually these tariffs will start to bite the real economy and we expect that trade will drag on chinese growth going forward. than

we saw many of those in the white house discussing the importance of china, the trade talks to calm. how important was the micro data that china is perhaps worse than we anticipated? >> china is slowing. i don't think that is a huge surprise. at valuations of chinese stocks or global stocks doing business in china. they have never been lower. i'm not sure we are necessarily learning much here. our view is that china has the policy flexibility that will keep putting it on the table to stabilize growth. the economy is absolutely slowing. joe: we are at the start of a massive week for earnings. what did we learn today? data and u.s. economic what we've gotten on earnings suggest that the u.s. economy is a lot better than we had feared it was in q4, but the rest of the world is probably just as bad as we saw in q4. when we saw a regional bank outperforming a big way, i think it affirms the picture that everywhere else is the worry rather than here. wherethat's the case, does that put us in terms of how to position your portfolio? you mentioned violations are low in china. you are overweight in emerging markets. what abo

china data stabilize. ad we need to avoid escalation of the trade war. it is the china data that is concerning investors.onfident that growth will stabilize for this year. asia, youou look at cannot take it is one piece, there are different business cycles. it is not going into unless you think we are into a convergence were everything goes down. mixo: business has been extremely diversion. if you look at the asian business cycle it is following china. it is not very significant. it is mainly following what is happening in china. business cycle is scraping bottom like we saw in 2015 and 2011 and close to where we were in 2008. i fail to see significant more downside in terms of risk pricing and asia unless we are going to see a massive slowdown in global growth which is not the forecast at this point. >> our guest will stick around and talk about his outlook for 2019. another volatile year to the market. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> doing a check on currencies, we did see what was a volatile session. against i look the dollar and thought there must be something wrong. >> everyone is pointing to these flash cr