let me go right now to chris cillizza, for an equally gutsy call. who would they like to least likely to run against, perry or romney? >> howard is right on both accounts, they don't talk about it. and two, if they did talk about it, they would say, they'd rather run against rick perry. chris, you mentioned it, you were talking about it. i think what you're looking at in almost any presidential election, but almost certainly in 2012, 40% of the people will vote for the republican nominee, no matter who it is, 40% will vote for barack obama. it might not even be 20%. let's say it's 20%. independents in the middle -- >> the people that vote for porky pig rather than president obama. >> right. and the thing is is we spend all of our time, chris, analyzing election, and in truth, you're probably talking about 10% of the voting population. >> and they make all the difference. >> they believe that romney tonally, tonally is more appealing to those candidates -- to those independent voters. businessmen background, he's from the northeast, he was the govern

no one has sort of stepped up into that role just yet. >> chris cillizza? you know, alex is right, but i would add, the guy who looks presidential and sounds presidential, right, you're the president of the whole country. i know it's a primary, in democratic primaries you're on the left and republican primaries, you're on the right. >> who says all gay people are democrats? don't they feel any love at all or affection or exceptions of the people in their own political ranks? >> you know what it struck me as, as i was watching, is that there's no natural in this debate. there's no natural in this field. let me explain. if that happened with bill clinton or ronald reagan -- >> what would bill have done? >> they would have said, you know what, this guy is in there, he's risking his life for us. they would have paused -- now, he might have probably gotten to whatever point he wanted to get to, but he would have paused, because he is naturally gifted at leading and understanding and that matters. >> you're on to something. here's what you're on to, is there any

thank you, chris cillizza for joining us. i read you all the time. you're right, bachmann had the worst week. coming up, have the neocons learned their lesson? we'll see. here comes dick cheney, the one member of the bush administration who ain't giving up. he was for attacking syria in 2007. but he was all alone. and even john mccain now says america isn't going to war in the middle east again. has the republican party moved on? are we hearing a lot about, you know, foreign adventurism has got to end. what a change in the clock. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc. impressive resume. thank you. you know what, tell me, what makes peter, peter ? well, i'm an avid catamaran sailor. i can my own homemade jam, apricot. and i really love my bank's raise your rate cd. i'm sorry, did you say you'd love a pay raise asap ? uh, actually, i said i love my bank's raise your rate cd. you spent 8 days lost at sea ? no, uh... you love watching your neighbors watch tv ? at ally, you'll love our raise your rate cd that offers a one-time rate increase if our curr

chris cillizza, he is something. they want you to do well, chris cillizza.atthews, and that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports." tomorrow, on the show, andrea interviews 2012 republican presidential candidate jon huntsman, and the one who said call me crazy, i believe in evolution, and that is hours before the debate tomorrow night. and don't miss a special edition of "hardball" tonight. we have two shows for you in front of air force one. my colleague tamron hall has a look at what is up next on "newsnatio "newsnation." hi, tamron. >> thank you, chris. rick perry says he is substantially more concerned about the people of his state affected by the wildfires than tomorrow's republican debate. the question is this hour, will perry skip the first gop presidential debate? plus, this hour, the senate returns to work, but the approval numbers are at historical low. the majority of the people saying that they would, listen to, vote out every member of congress. "newsnation" is moments away. ♪ maybe time can mend us together again ♪ ♪ it's not wha

>>> joining us now is msnbc contributing editor and postpolitics.com columnist chris cillizza.iden going to shanksville, pennsylvania, and leon panetta at the pentagon and president and mrs. obama at all three sites and the new york event is hosted of course by mike bloomberg, so a difficult challenging weekend for americans. >> yes, and you know, andrea, a time to reflect more than anything else on more how the lives and politics have changed. >> and in terms of our lives, wd and most of the ways, but we don't know all of the intrusive security procedures in place, but psychologically and politically, it has changed the whole nature of our society. >> well, a sense that, andrea, more anxiety and before september 11th, we never thought it would come home, and it has now and it has led to an anxiety in the politics and the future and changed the which we think about life and that of course impacts our politics. >> chris cillizza, have a safe weekend and we will see you monday, i hope. that does it for this edition of "andrea mitchell reports" and of course, stay with msnbc all w

i'm chris cillizza in for chuck todd this morning. the markets were bracing for bad news on the jobs front. it turned out to be even worse than expected. zero new jobs added in nongtd of august. it's the first time that's happened since september 1945. the unemployment number remains stuck at 9.1% for the second month in a row. mark zandi is chief economist of moody's analytics. what can you tell us about these numbers? >> well, the economy is stalling out. i think the debt ceiling spectacle in washington, the s&p downgrade really damaged what was already pretty vag ill confidence and businesses just froze. they haven't started increasing their lay-offs yet. that would be a recession. they stopped hiring. so we're right on the edge. we're very, very close to double dipping. >> mark, the obama administration often says -- points to private sector growth, the private sector is still hiring. but it only added 17,000 jobs offset by government jobs being cut. is that enough pry spratt sector growth that the obama administration can take a

i'm chris cillizza. let's get to the markets where futures are driving down again. orkin is here with the market rundown. >> off maybe 300 points on the dow. that's coming after yesterday's real problem in europe. we saw the markets down 4% in europe, 2% across the board. that's a function of the worries of the banking system. one little piece of business news coming out of washington this morning, the carlisle group, the private equity firm going public, private equity firm going public, a little ironic. that is the news this morning. "the daily rundown" is coming back in about 30 seconds. >> bottom of the hour now. i'm chris cillizza. this is "the daily rundown." chuck todd has left the building. he's on his way to california to prepare for wednesday night's republican debate. coming up this half hour, we'll talk to the political historian who predicts president obama will win re-election based on a formula he's developed. he's been right in every election since 1984. pretty good run. first, some other stories making headlines this morning. new wildfires cropped up

msnbc contributor and managing editor of postpolitics.com chris cillizza joins us. hi, chris. only one debate. it's tonight right here. >> well, andrea, that's right. i will as always be tuned to msnbc because-i this is a big night. i don't think we can overplay it. you know, debates matter. it's when the people who are going to vote are paying attention. we're post-labor day and in the rick perry era. everyone wants to see what he's going to do. i think an underplayed story line and one to pay attention to is how does michele bachmann fare in this debate in the last debate in iowa, two days away from winning the straw poll. she was the buzz and talk of the town. everybody was excited. that buzz has very much wore off. rick perry is soaring and michele bachmann in new polls support cut in half, so can she re-energize her campaign and get herself into that conversation with mitt romney and rick perry tonight? >> all things to watch. chris cillizza, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> we'll all be watching. >> now, a personal note, or how i spent my summer vacation. i had planne

no one has sort of stepped up into that role just yet. >> chris cillizza?you know, alex is right, but i would add, the guy who looks presidential and sounds presidential, right, you're the president of the whole country. i know it's a primary, in democratic primaries you're on the left and republican primaries, you're on the right. >> who says all gay people are democrats? don't they feel any love at all or exceptions of the people in their own political ranks? >> you know what it struck me as, as i was watching, is that there's no natural in this debate. there's no natural in this field. let me explain. if that happened with bill clinton or ronald reagan -- >> what would bill have done? >> they would have said, you know what, this guy is in there, he's risking his life for us. they would have paused -- now, he might have probably gotten to whatever point he wanted to get to, but he would have paused, because he is naturally gifted at leadi ining and understandind that matters. >> you're on to something. here's what you're on to, is there any natural leader

the contributing editor for postpolitics.com chris cillizza is joining us now.ow about the economy, and that is a story, but we know what is going on. in the political world, i just over the last hour, our campaign enbed in new hampshire noted another huntsman departure and when you tell me that huntsman is losing the head of the new hampshire campaign, i am raising my eyebrows and going, hey, this thing is problems? >> well, chuck, it is like you said. last month we saw earlier this month the main national campaign manager moving on and no big deal, but new hampshire is the place he has to win or at least move, because we know it won't happen in iowa, so when you lose the new hampshire campaign manager and they are i sag itnt is a personnel move, but if he wants to do well anywhere and a top staffer, it is in new hampshire, because it is important. and it feels like he can't get off of the ground and this is less than 24 hours after he announced the jobs plan in the state, and spending five days in the state. we haven't seen him move. any time in a national pol

the managing contributor eder or the of postpolitics.com, chris cillizza joins us.iting before president obama went on vacation at martha's vineyard and we obviously thought it was 24 hours earlier a few days ago, but this is the big night. the white house is not backing down from this moment, and they know it is a big moment, and the joint session of congress tells it. you know, this is a speech that we may look back on and say, was this the start of barack obama turning that corner electorally or just more of the same? in the past, he has risen to the rhetorical moment, and i think back to the jeremiah wright speech in philadelphia which turned a negative into a positive and a harder task here because the data out there is so pessimistic, but he has risen to the challenges before and clearly a big challenge for him tonight. >> well, there's almost no easy road path out of this economic doldrums or whatever you want to call it the pain of unemployment. david leonart writing of the threat of another recession if things don't turn around. and also, the substance of t

. >> i'm chris cillizza and that does it for this edition of the "andrea mitchell reports."the show, 2012 republican candidate jon huntsman joins us live just hours before the msnbc politico debatet ta reagan library. michael smerconish is in for tamron hall with a look at "newsnation." michael? >> thank you, chris. in the next hour we are keeping an eye out for the stock market following that dismal jobs report. and can the president lay out a plan to turn it around? and tropical storm lee formed to the gulf of mexico and louisiana has already declared a state of emergency as the gulf coast braces for up to 20 inches of rain. "newsnation" is minutes away. ♪ in here, pets never get lost. ♪ in here, every continent fits in one room. it was fun, we played football outside. why are you sitting in the dark? ♪ [ male announcer ] in here, you're never away from home. it's the at&t network. and what's possible in here is almost impossible to say. o0 c1 do you have an irregular heartbeat called atrial fibrillation, or afib, that's not caused by a heart valve problem? are you taking

chris cillizza joins us. we're talking florida. the candidates are all there or heading there.ough we don't have much time without saying, what was michele bachmann thinking in iowa on her way to florida, i guess? the meat locker? >> when i saw that, i saw kay henderson, a rotter in iowa. it said bachmann does event in meat locker. that was the headline. i thought that must be a metaphor. no, no, she was in a meat locker. you can see it there now. you can go two ways. the symbolism of michele bachmann as dead meat or you can go, michele bachmann as rocky. which is i think the one her campaign would prefer. out there punching some dead meat, warming up for the debate tomorrow night. obviously we spend too much time thinking about these things. >> so florida, critical. we know from our friend tim russert, florida has always been important. more so this year perhaps than any year. especially with social security being so much a pampt debate. >> a debate and then a straw poll within 72 hours. this will help us figure out who t the favorite is going into the primary season. >> not t

chris cillizza, jonathan martin, i will try to get a word in edgewise. >> good luck. >> j.start with you. we've seen the preview of the fight. the importance of this debate for rick perry, can it be underestimated? >> no. i think this is a huge debate for him. he's got to show after a fairly rocky performance in tampa that he's actually made some adjustments, he's improved his game, that there is a capacity for growth there. that's what i think a lot of folks in the party will want to see. especially donors still sitting on their wallets. can he improve his game? if he shows he can he will sort of get a rebound. if not, if he has a second bad debate in a row, after some of these polls coming out showing romney better positioned to take on president obama, i think it's going to create a serious problem for perry. >> what's interesting, chuck, to add to that, it feels like the whole republican world is just basically saying to rick perry, just give us something. >> they don't want a lot, do they? >> no! it's a low bar. he gets into the race. two weeks later he's the front-run

and with chris cillizza from the washington post. first, i would like to take a few quick minutes to give context about where i think we are and drive the compensation a little bit. as director sperling just said, the president has a $450 billion jobs bill. my theory of the case here is that we do not have the short- term problem. we have a long-term economic problem. i am a bit of a prop comic. i dug this out of my files yesterday. it is a 150 page report dated december 1999 looking forward to the next 10 years to 2010 about what the stock market might hold. it is from lehman brothers. there are many predictions. they did not predict their own demise. that is not the only bad prediction in this fantastic report. they predicted microsoft would become the world's first trillion dollar company. they predicted gold would be $1,500 per ounce. no mention of apple. one mention of china. they said the u.s. budget surplus would continue to build throughout the decade. my favorite lehman brothers prediction is that the u.s. economy will be ev

stern about jobs, the economy, the political landscape , and as the saying goes, you can't -- and chris cillizza from "the washington post" as well who has managed to show up. excellent. you can't do policy without politics so, hopefully, we're going to get plenty of both over the next 40 minutes or so. but first i just wanted to take a couple of quick minutes to give a bit of context of where i think we're at and hopefully drive the conversation just a little bit. as director sperling just said, the president has a $450 billion jobs bill, and i'm sure majority leader cantor will discuss republican plans as well, how he wants to get the economy moving. but it's sort of been my theory of the case here is that what we don't have is a short-term problem, but really more of a long-term economic problem. like gallagher, i'm a bit of a prop comic. i like to bring a prop here. and what i have, i dug this thing out of my files yesterday. it's called beyond 2000. it's 150-page report dated december 1999 looking forward over the next ten years to 2010 what the economy and stock market might hold. it's fro

your view, cillizza, is the party going towards somebody of true right-wing belief and attitude, not just somebody who's acceptable down the center right/middle? >> i think right now, chrisve got the choice between the heart, which is clearly rick perry. he's the guy who gets people animated. they believe that believes. right? he's the heart. and the head which is mitt romney. the head thinking steady, electability, can beat obama on his issues. so i honestly don't know the answer, but i do think you're seeing that basic dynamic play out in a we that's not dissimilar, i'd say, chris, to '04. remember howard dean as heart. john kerry as head. it's not that different. one is the candidate they love. the other candidate is the one they like, but think other people can like him, too. >> i agree with you. i still think they're looking for more heart and like to have somebody better and smarter than perry. here's frank rich writing in "new york" magazine, "whether perry snares big prize or not he could prove a shock to the system taint mount to barry goldwater in 1964, and just as misestimated now as goeldwater was then." he's arguing if perry loses the nomination or election