tom: bob emails and says get a quote from chris harvey. 4200, lift it up. mix of news. ne is watching. go. chris: our start was 4200 as a target at the end of last year. we also had a soft landing target of 4400. tom: two targets. [laughter] hawk-ward. can you give 4500? chris: i cannot but this is why you go back to the economy. i can make adjustments but do i have a lot of confidence? no. it is really about the economy. tom: chris harvey, wells fargo. we protect the copyright of all of our guests. it's this really interesting analogue study from wells fargo looking back to the late 1990's. down features -20. on the spx, percent. fractional. down half of 1%. good morning. lisa a: we are taking a look at what you expect to hear from fed chair jay powell. i keep thinking about what chris harvey set about economic malaise until the fed goes all hot. unless they get more aggressive, you will have a bifurcated push along different industries that create a resilience and have to fight along expectation. tom: i think it is a really important idea. i cannot cite who it was yest

let's bring in chris harvey of wells fargo. i had a conversation with professor siegel asked him if it was a bubble and he said not yet. what do you think? >> i agree you're looking at the commercialization. back then it was the wild west nobody knew what the commercialization was going to be here you're seeing people adapt ai here and now. we put out a note this morning you have heinz talking about ai and how it's going to help the supply chain. >> i'm going to stop you for a second when a ketchup company is talking about ai, you don't pause and say, give me a break >> no, absolutely not. this is the greatest technology innovation or innovations we've seen in two decades. when you look at the companies, here's the difference between now and then now you know the established players. what ai is is it's a scale and size business. there's real opportunity here. this is not a bubble >> aren't we somewhat making leaps of faith here thinking that, you know, we're pulling numbers out of hat it feels like to say the total addressable

higher rates and that's kind of what put pressure on some of the big cap tech names last week chris harveyls fargo and others have been very colorful, trying to describe how big $3 trillion is that's the market cap of apple dave and i had a discussion about this a few weeks ago and a lot of people were incredulous about these numbers but it's true, and chris harvey adopted this over the weekend, $2.9 trillion apple is about the same as the gdp of france. people find this perhaps not the best way to make apples to apples comparison but it gives you an idea of how big these companies really are microsoft is as big as italy at this point $2.2 trillion for the italian economy. alphabet, as big as mexico, $1.7 trillion roughly apiece for mexico, compared to alphabet and you can see that then you go on and on with this. the whole point is these numbers are absolutely enormous. the bull case is that a.i. is going to continue to drive valuations higher, and that a.i. is going to do for valuations what the internet did for some companies in the 1990s that's the bull scenario others have different o

valuations and prices and the higher rates really putting pressure on tech last week take a look here chris harvey struggling to convey what is $3 trillion it's the gdp of france, and that's an interesting way to convey this. it's a way of explaining how big the companies have come. how about microsoft is bigger than italy, the gdp of italy alphabet is as big as mexico, 1.7 trillion versus $1.6 billion. and i think the key point here is none of this is having any impact on the bulls that are out there, and their argument is simple, forget about these numbers, they will get bigger because a.i. is the secret sauce, and they may be true on that but it does matter valuations do matter and nobody is saying this is apples to apples, and people were saying it's not fair to do the comparison, but how do you convey what $3 trillion is how big that is? years ago, $3 trillion was a stack of bills so many miles high, something silly like that. people say i didn't think about that >> didn't think about that in the size and scope what are the valuations? how expensive are they >> 25, 35. amazon has been trading

saying - >> meanwhile, chris harvey at wells fargo says -- >> and yesterday, black swan author warnedechoes of the great financial crisis >> this is something that resembles 2008, 2007, in the sense that we had a financial crisis, the reaction was to lower rates. which is a temporary policy to cure a structural problem. >> joining me now, allen boomer and aide yardeni welcome to both of you ed, what do you think after you hear these warnings and concerns >> i'm delighted to hear that the bears are still growling it's when everybody is bullish that i get nervous right now, this bull market is bright and shiny, and i think it continues. mostly because there is no recession. waiting for a recession is like -- it never shows up. earnings are picking up as profit margins improve i see all these bears are looking back to the past i'm also looking back to the past, and i see a similarity between the 2020s and the 1920s. >> ed, i think everyone's bullish. you can capture it scientifically better than i can, but you get laughed at now if you're bearish, right people are like, what are you talk

people have been struggling to explain that for example, chris harvey over at wells fargo has adoptedple has a nearly $3 trillion market capitalization and that's about the gdp of france. i know that sounds kind of crazy, but actually it is. it's a true situation. it's not necessarily apples to apples, but it gives you a sense of the scale of how big $3 trillion is. how about microsoft? microsoft is about the size of italy in terms of the market capitalization versus the gdp of italy, $2.2 trillion how about alphabet it's about as big as mexico if you compare its market cap to the gdp of mexico and you can go on and on with these comparisons, kelly tesla is bigger than taiwan at $791 billion conveying the scale of $3 trillion and none of it is derailing the tech wars. their attitude is a.i. will change everything and it will justify higher market capitalization and higher p-e ratios and this will change the whole game and this has been the position of dan ives at web bush for a long time. we'll see about about gdp versus market capitalization, obviously, it's not apples to apples obvi

charles: according to chris harvey at wells fargo, the tech rally itself, it is too unstoppable unlessssive. what he talks about they have to break the entire economy just to stop the tech economy but is that the rolled of the federal reserve? >> well, the role of the federal reserve i would like to send them to italy for a year i will pay for it. look the problem right now, this is a big problem going forward i think they're behind again but just the other way. remember when they were 0% interest rates started to skyrocket because of inflation, they sat there, they were behind. now the 10-year yield is at 3.07, they're going to 5.75 next couple months that worries the heck out of me and could worry the markets. just remember we have a economy gdp is not so strong, you have credit card usage skyrocketing and late payments starting to go up and savings rates have been plunging so if we lose the job market, by the way, in his prepared remarks jay powell said in order to get rid of inflation we'll need a softer labor market. thanks, let's get people fired. if we lose the job market i thin

is it panic time, chris for germany and how do you feel like i think we're way beyond the panic button at this point. i mean harvey flick believes that they'll settle in in september. they host japan. japan handed them a defeat and guitar. so it's an opportunity for payback. but i do think the quality of the players that they're divided on the pets. there's no cohesiveness. you need this to be successful. the past german teams, they had a lot of cor buyer and munich players. that was, in my opinion, one of the reasons they were very successful. they knew each other very well in the pitch right now. it's not the case of the flick, you know, is making big promises. the performances are not backing those up. well, let's see how they fare against japan. and yeah, i'm hoping you know, for a turn around chris, thank you so much. chris harrington from dw sports. thank you. if you're watching the news from berlin, just reminder the top stories were following for you this. our rescue is looking for a loss of merciful say. so nor equipment has detected signs of life in the search area or contact was lost with missing submer