that would be a landslide well i'm joined by guests here in the london studio to talk this over chris hopkins joins me he's a pollster with the commerce savant a polling group i would wager is a researcher with the u.k. in the changing in a changing europe thanks for joining us guys and emma haywood our reporter is standing by as well in boris johnson's own constituency seat in london bridge in south russert will join emma in a short while chris let me bring you in 1st of all blithe valley has just turned blue gone conservative for the 1st time in since 1950 the 1st seat really to switch the 1st by many if they example is to be believed the opinion polls were consistently showing a conservative victory when they but nothing quite on this scale yeah absolutely thought i think from the exit poll was in about a 14 point conservative lead no poll was that large they did tend to show a fairly strong conservative lade that did tend to reduce over the course of the campaign and you know what we'll have to wait and see what might happen over the last few days but clearly you know all the polls seem t

chris hopkins works for this event polling firm which has slashed the conservative party's lead over labor to just 5 points he says labor's taken support from another left leaning party the liberal democrats we have seen the labor party make some progress here what they have managed to do throughout the campaign is to squeeze the liberal democrats were found you know 2060 remain voters were initially considerably more split over whether they would vote for labor or for the put them across and what we've come to the conclusion now is that far more are going to vote for the labor party and the looked at means and that can only be good news where as you know for the conservative party they always had quite a significant majority of the lifo and that hasn't really changed the campaign. israelis have another election next march its 3rd in less than a year neither prime minister benjamin netanyahu nor his main opponent benny gantz were able to form a governing coalition after september's inconclusive vote harry false it reports now from west jerusalem. it was the outcome feared by voters i

constituency back in the london studio chris hopkins and most own chris let me ask you 1st of all i. will mend it boris johnson described it for a one nation government anything but for the opposition parties we know about labor's was but joe swinson the leader of the liberal democrats lost her own seat and he's done back in charlotte a while ago. an appalling election for the liberal democrats who if any party wanted an election to be about breaks it they did but their message completely failed yeah i mean i think i think labor's bad night will mean the liberal democrats but not might fall under the radar slightly but they are staring at another leadership election best area not hardly making any gains i think they might have made there is potential them to have made gains on on their performance in 2017 possibly by want to. see they had so many defections in the last parliament that in fact they will lose seats for one palm was dissolved. it's just been a mess is that hasn't resonated and they were polling at 202122 percent only a few months ago i'm not just completely fall away an

this country and this country's economy let me bring in my guests i'll introduce you anyway to chris hopkins a pollster with 7 to the polling group and john maternal mishear a former political strategist with the labor party worked closely with former promise and tony blair as well 1st we're going to go to emma haywood reporter in the constituency of oxbridge and south rise to that of course is boris johnson's own constituency because while it looks as though he's won big on the national stage it isn't certain that he'll win his own seat. well joe you know we're getting a sense that boris johnson well arrive in the next hour or so it will be interesting to say whether he looks like a man who's worried about his own seat or whether he looks like a man who is enjoying winning so many seats so looks like of course but a big victory tonight it is an interesting thing not just because it's boris johnson's but also because there has been a concerted campaign by the other candidates to try to outsports john said a local campaign trip for it to oust a prime minister which would be the 1st time that

all right chris hopkins we thank you very much for joining us from london. israel's parliament has voted to dissolve itself putting the country on the verge of its 3rd election in less than a year prime minister benjamin netanyahu and his opponent benny gantz both fail to form a ruling coalition auster the last vote in september when terry cross that he's joining us from west jerusalem so what happens next terry. well what happens next is a 3rd election in march there was a sense of grim inevitability about this which had been growing ever more grim and more never to fall in the months since the september election and all of the repeated attempts and failures to form a unity government between the likud party of benjamin netanyahu the prime minister and the blue and white party led by former army chief benny gantz both men stuck to their positions ness and yahoo saying that he had to stay in power at least for several months in any unity government deal he was of course in the interim indicted in 3 separate corruption cases blue and white accusing him of cle

chris hopkins, we thank you for joining us from london.srael's parliament voted to dissolve itself, putting the country on the verge of its third election in less than a year. benjamin netanyahu and his opponent benny gantz failed to form a coalition. we are joined from west jerusalem. what happens next, harry? reporter: what happens next is a third election in march. there is a sense of grim inevitability about this, which had been growing ever more grim and inevitable in the months since the september election and all of the repeated attempts and failures to form a unity government between the party of benjamin netanyahu and the blue and white party led by former army chief benny gantz. both men stuck to their positions, netanyahu saying he had to stay in power, at least for several months, in any unity government deal. he was in the interim indicted in several corruption cases, blue and white accusing him of trying to cement his position and fight off corruption cases from that position of power. they said they would not sit in governme

boris johnson has got precisely what he wanted he's got more than what he wanted let's bring in chris hopkins from savannah to commerce chris i have to say this time last night you were saying 6 or 7 maybe he's got a strong king majority that's up there with tony blair back in 97 yeah absolutely i mean it seems to be the. completely justified if that the post correct which we've got no reason at the state a doubt that it wouldn't be he was committed justified in trying to call this election in order to get a large majority to push back that they'll through. you know he did run a very safe campaign and to work for him and you're frankly you know looking at those numbers it's a disaster it's not for the for the labor party will get on to that of course in the coming few hours here on al-jazeera on a special broadcast what does he do next once he's given the speech as he will do of course it is just the exit poll that's all it is we are not 12 hours ahead of where we are at the moment it's big though so in theory if it does translate into being that he had to get $26.00 as a minimum to do what h

he wants to do with breaks it and with the country moving forward let me bring in my guest now chris hopkins is still with us he's been with us for the last few hours with the polling groups around to commers chris let me just read out to you a couple of constituencies louis greater manchester labor since 1922 it's forms of conservatives wrexham north east wales labor since 1935 it's fallen to the conservatives workington that great construct of the election that the voter that the tories had to win over if they were going to win big the older white working class traditionally labor voter rugby league supporter they've won workington it all bears out doesn't it this exit poll at what point you think we can say yep it's pretty much on the money yeah i mean i think we probably could have said that a few hours ago to be completely frank and even the size the extent of it yeah i think so because i think in you know as soon as the valley result came in that we could see over that was only one seat we could see in the others that they were holding what swing was going against them and it was going

i'm not saks we'll leave it there for the moment and bring in my studio guests here in london chris hopkins is with us from 7 to comrades the polling group and mo hussein a former advisor to the conservative party worked in downing street for david cameron and also with former home secretary amber rudd let me start with you chris if i may. emma mentioned jeremy corbyn we heard him a short while ago acknowledging the scale of the labor defeat saying he will stand down just not quite yet he's talking about a period of reflection what is there really stickley for labor to reflect upon now under its current leadership when so much absolutely so much it appears needs to change yeah i think that's a really interesting question of the you know i'm not the person to have that conversation but i think all we found over the last few months particularly in the polling that we conduct and under all this conduct is the german who is deeply unpopular is unpopular as a person as a leader and in 2017 he had the element of surprise he was very new and he will you know he was also in a sense very lucky to ru

well we've been speaking to chris hopkins who works for a polling company which is the conservative party's lead over labor just 5 points and he says that labor has taken support from the liberal democrats we have seen the labor party make some progress here what they have managed to do throughout the campaign is to squeeze the liberal democrat vote where found you know 2060 remain voters were initially considerably more split over whether they would vote for the for labor or for the democrats and what we've come to the conclusion now is that far more are going to vote for the labor party and the lib dems and that can only be good news whereas you know for the conservative party they were always had quite a significant majority of the leave and that hasn't really changed the campaign. u.s. president donald trump assigned an executive order which he says is intended to end the anti semitism fox their affairs is actually designed to restrict criticism of the israeli government on fisher explains president donald trump has regularly boasted of his pro israel record he did it again as he signed

the liberal democrats are predicted to get 12 percent of the vote joining us here in the studio chris hopkins the head of politics at 7 to commerce the company that conducted the poll what is the poll tell us and so i think across all firms all polling firms what we have seen throughout the campaign is a narrowing of the labor lead of the we're showing the narrowest labor lead of all the final polls and i think that what that is likely to mean is it could still give the conservative party a majority albeit probably cost small one but it might be enough for boris johnson to get his back to deal through basically we need to acknowledge that you know that doesn't need to be much of a change in the vote share that we're looking at for there to be the potential for a hung parliament did your digital polling is it possible to translate your polling into numbers in the house clean needs to hit 330 just to be able to railroad the whole thing through yeah absolutely so it's not something that we tend to do but academics will take our numbers and put them into their own state models where we tend to fa

and the labor party plus of course other consequences besides now i'm joined this hour by guests chris hopkins is with me again from savannah commers the polling group folly mckenzie joins us a former advisor to nick clegg the former liberal democrat leader former deputy prime minister of course now chief executive of the think tank demos and emma haywood a reporter is standing by in boris johnson's somewhat shaky looking constituency of uxbridge in south ross that we'll talk to emma in a 2nd but 1st chris to you. we're beginning to see the fall of labor seats former labor seats in labor heartlands i read it even said field tony blair's constituency seat is in danger and could well fall this is for the 1st time in many many decades decades it's a quite extraordinary scene is it labor voters sometimes lifelong labor voters switching their votes to the conservatives something that many of them would have considered it thinkable in the yet i mean i think what we're tending to see more at least from the early results seems to actually be labor voters voting for the party party instead and i think

so it was a surprise the exit polls that proved to be quite a accurate but let's speak now to chris hopkins from 7 to com or is at the polling and research agency now obviously you have been crunching the numbers for quite a while leading up to this election of 1st of all were you surprised by just how big the majority was and where it came from i don't think so i think what we were always saying is that a very large majority was plausible i think from the whole campaign we always saw the fact that there was almost certainly going to be a conservative majority it was in the last few days that we fought the very small possibility of a hung parliament but i think generally speaking because of the start of the campaign were very large late and it didn't really fall away at that much very briefly if you can we just had boris johnson speak it's now a very broad church really the conservative party what did you make of what he said is he going to be able to pull everyone together i mean that is definitely his challenge he has created an electoral coalition that the conservative party haven't seen

victory for the conservatives and the clarity provided by the size of that victory let's bring in chris hopkins who's the head of politics of the polling company savant commerce chris you've had an hour to digest what we think the figures mean how does it unpack i mean it's still you know look the same as it is an hour ago still looks like boris johnson is going to get his his his huge majority that he was looking for when when he said how would this election you know about that with the idea it was supposed to be the bracks election all he said throughout the campaign is get breaks it done looks like he's finally going to have the parliamentary arithmetic to do that particularly a clickable usually when we have a 1st past the post system is as we do here in the u.k. people talk about the swing traditionally the swing is all. always been well if but that constituency goes red that constituency someplace else has probably gone blue but you can't apply tribal lines here because people were voting in completely unpredictable ways you can and i think that is really what the exit poll has tried to d

chris hopkins is they had of politics at this event a commerce polling company he says there's a strong chance of a hung parliament what we've seen in all final poll of the election is that the conservatives are on 41 percent and we found the labor party around 36 percent now of that gives only a 5 point lead and that is the rest of all pollsters going into the last election i think there are still one to come out tomorrow and maybe one more deceiving but what we're likely to see with that is it does reduce boris johnson's chances of a large majority and it does increase potentially the chances of there being a hung parliament come friday morning and the ring of labor leader across all pulses over the election you know we started out with with with a slightly narrower conservative lead and on the start of a very big one so i think irrespective of polling we have seen. the labor party make some progress here what they have managed to do throughout the campaign is to squeeze the liberal democrats we found you know 2060 remain voters were initially considerably more split over whether they

chris: i took tests and was good at it. it came naturally to me. i was always into the big questions. the big question in my mind was cosmology. i went to johns hopkinswhich had the space telescope. 1986, 1987, i went and got a phd in theoretical physics. susan: from there to wall street. what was that? chris: [laughter] susan: that doesn't seem like a logical progression. chris: i was one of the first people to do it. it is now a pretty common route. they call them rocket scientists. at some point people on wall street realize it is all numbers and here is this group of people who are good at numbers. i was not particularly great at physics. to make a career in physics, you have to absolutely love it and i liked it but i did not absolutely love it. i am not particular good at it, so i left and went to wall street. susan: were you good as a bond trader? chris: yes. susan: how long did you do it? chris: 20 years. susan: how do your lifestyle change while you were doing that? chris: quite a bit. me and my family would like to say we did not change much, but i think over time. i got paid more my first year than my father ever made. 10 times more than i

as director of the john hopkins, the program, doctor breyer provided fellowships for 1400 international scholars in hiv aids prevention research and treatment. chris is one of the bloomberg's most remarkable graduates in his success in research and practice with the continuing ongoing commitment from the policy leaders at the cdc and nih make for a powerful combination and have helped bring us to where we are today and on the cusp of ending hiv epidemic in america and across the world. today's event is cosponsored by the center for aids research and it is a collaboration across the three john hopkin schools in the schools of public health, medicine and nursing. with support from university for the office of provost. founded seven years ago it is committed to ending the epidemic through the promotion of disciplinary research and importantly by training the next generation of hiv-aids research here in the u.s. and abroad. the return on investment is quite clear, one example, hiv funding for junior investigators has risen from 7% of nih funds to 25% of all nih research funding now. this has created a larger well-trained and powered hiv experts who in