but i had a chance to talk to chris murray just yesterday. he's been the one driving these models at the university of washington. i think what's changing a bit is they're getting data from other countries around the world. they were primarily basing a lot of what was happening with their original models, which were closer, showing closer to 100,000 people dying, almost exclusively on wuhan. saying here's what wuhan did. if we can do the same thing, then we could sort of get to this number. but we're -- it's not clear that we can do the same thing. wuhan had a significant state of lockdown. now they're seeing other countries that did have significant lockdowns but not as extreme as wuhan, maybe not as early as what you saw in wuhan. yet, they're having success. seeing social distancing measures be successful even if not implemented as stringently as wuhan. maybe a little bit of evidence that even a little bit or moderate amount of social distancing can go further than they originally thought. a caution to your point, alisyn, to a lot of stati

chris murray, thank you so much. sanjay, i want you to stay with us. i want to bring in the former baltimore health commissioner. dr. wen, 140,000, 200,000 deaths. i guess that's also assuming that all the states or maybe it's not. maybe just assuming current stay at home orders. dr. murray's was 80,000 deaths, assuming all the states within a week start to do stay-at-home orders. it's alarming. >> that's right, it very much is. these are the optimistic est matsz. that's assuming we are doing everything, which we know we're not. i think just to underscore this point that we know what works, and we need to be doing that. we need to be strengthening health care capacity, getting tests out. also we really need to be abiding by the social distancing guidelines because that's what's really turned things around in other countries and would be what works here, too >> sanjay, the white house task force said to be actively discussing whether the public should be wearing masks. the president at the briefing suggested people should just wear scarves. i want to pl

it would be great if you were to -- chris murray validates that. i am not a modeler but i would calculate this is at the beginning of february when the epidemic started in new york. >> 14% of the people in the study had antibodies of coronavirus. is that a high number or low number to you? >> the new york state number means less to me. it is about 20% or 21%, much less than the rest of the state. one and five of new yorkers may be infected if the study is validated lie a large sampling. a large percentage of those became infected before march 22nd when the order implemented to do social distancing. that tends to reenforce this pep mi epidemic had been going on for weeks. it is a lag and it plateaus for a while and it goes up exponentially. a lot of these pieces are starrista starting to come together of this horrible tragedy that happened to new york. >> do you think we see a similar number in cities nationwide? >> well, it is possible. we heard about california. i think this epidemic was probably well underway in february just like it was underway

chris murray. back with us is also dr. sanjay gupta. dr. rray, can you explain the new changes to your model? we had you on before. you pointed out as more information comes in, as more data comes in, the numbers will change. why the lowering now? >> so, two key things. we've been able to incorporate with all the influx of new data in the united states. first, we found out a lot more about hospital practice, and so what we're seeing is that hospitals, particularly new york but elsewhere in the country, are admitting fewer people compared to what the original data suggested. you know, compared to every death that we see. they are putting fewer people into the icu and there is lower ventilator requirements. that's brought down the sort of shortage estimates quite a bit because of that new data influx. and the other big news is that we're seeing peaks in the epidemic in other places other than china. in italy, in spain -- in fact, seven different regions have seen the epidemic peak and come down, and that really informs our models about the imp

i interviewed chris murray about that. he said the stay at home orders, people were abiding by these more than we thought they would, especially in southern states and they're having an impact. it was a significant downward sort of move from 90 to 60,000 over that few week period. it goes up now because, you know, we're starting to live the orders. so we have evidence by the models it worked and we have evidence that it will avert back quickly once the stay at home orders start to get lifted. i think the question really is how much? how much of an impact will it have? we always have known as we talked about on this program several times that at some point as we start to lift stay at home orders around the country, the numbers will go up. but i think most people, just about everyone i have spoken to, in fact i can't think of a single public health person i've spoken to who hasn't said it is too early to be doing this right now for lots of different reasons, so as a result, the uptick, 15,000 person uptick over the past seve

chris murray an expert who helps create models used by the white house he says the u.s. seems to be pretty close to the peak but there's this warning, the down slope will be very slow. >> we know families across the nation are celebrating easter and passover this weekend. experts say social distancing and stay-at-home orders are working and dr. anthony fauci says a large body of antibody tests could be available in the next week. >> president trump is taking a slightly more cautious approach to re-opening the economy. he says he's look at a date. he notes nothing will happen until he's certain that the country will be healthy. >> cnn national correspondent kristen holmes is at the white house for us now. good to see you this morning. the president says and i'm quoting here, without question this is the biggest decision he's ever had to make. of course, he won't make it in full. that's really local jurisdiction call, is it not? >> reporter: no, it is. but look this is a huge call for the president. this is a very big decision and one source tells us president trump is not

chris murray. we'll continue to check in with you on the models as they shift.cing around the pain that keeps you up again, and again. advil pm silences pain, and you sleep the whole night. advil pm >>> we hope to enthe program tonight by focusing on health care workers as we do many nights but the white house task force briefing went longer than expected. tomorrow night we'll bring a nurse's remarkable account of what she faces. the news continues right now. i want to hand things over to chris for cuomo prime time. how are you doing? >> i'm doing better than i deserve. good to see you. hope you had a good weekend. and welcome to everybody here in the new age of rebirth and renewal. i am chris cuomo and welcome to prime time. the president can try to rewrite history and cover up and do what he does best, which is cover his own flank. but all americans want to know, all we must demand to know is how the hell is he going to get us out of this. saying time to reopen is not enough when 23,000 lay dead. more than half a million of us are sick. you know i have it. i'm

chris murray in the last hour. he is responsible for the model used by the white house to forecast coronavirus. he told me he is increasing the predicted death toll to 74,000. take a listen to this. >>> we are just seeing this steady rise. you are seeing it in the case numbers as well. there are a lot of signs that we are trending down but there are signs here that things are not quite on the same trajectory they were a week ago or ten days ago. >> okay. what is the lesson or the takeaway from the numbers going up to 74,000? >> we are trying to get evidence and scientific basis for thinking about when social distancing might be relaxed. there is always going to be a risk. >> multiple states are planning to reopen in the next few weeks. how concerning is that? >> we are all concerned of course. we want to make progress. slowly. and carefully. and safely. and with states opening up and some of the states haven't met all of the criteria in phase one that has been laid out in the national plan. we are of course worried

talking to chris murray who sort of authored these models you're talking about from university of washington, they've come up with this number, .03%. bafrkly, if you do the math, more than 90 people in the entire country a day would be getting infected and getting sick from this virus. 90 people is not very many, but it's not zero, either, to your point. i'm not sure. i think when you say it's going to go to potential zero, it's hard to imagine that because the virus is still circulating, people are still going to get sick. i think it will be that balance of what you're willing to accept. >> sanjay, there is an incredible story, i know you've seen it in the "new york times," about a 45-year-old doctor who contracted the coronavirus. they tried hydroxychloroquine on him and it didn't work. then they hooked him up to something i had never heard of called an ecchm orymol machine. here's the image of this machine. why do you think it worked, and is it available at hospitals across the country? >> this is a fascinating machine. it's been around for a while. it was popularized at the university of

if you remember, chris murray from the university of washington sort of gave a number. he said there needs to be fewer than 90 new infections a day, i believe is what he said, so 90 new infections a day across country, a much newer amount than we're seeing right now. we're going to get details on how this is likely to play out, but i don't think we're going to see any states that meet these gating criteria right away. we'll keep an eye on those as well. >> sanjay gupta there with us. now dr. derrick angus. he is department and chair of the university of pittsburgh and they are fast-tracking a clinical trial in the hopes of finding a secure treatment soon. doctor, great to have you on this morning. can you tell us which drugs you're testing out now and which are showing the best promise of success here? >> so i can't tell you which is showing the best promise of success. one of the issues with clinical trials is you can't, as an investigator or clinician, know what's going on. you can try to create a trial where the central coordinating can assign the best performing the

chris murray along with dr. sanjay gupta. you explain the newest modeling and how it differs from previous? >> sure, we've taken advantage of cell phone mobility data to get better insight where social distancing has been working. that's led us to have lower projections for places like florida, texas, some of the states where we thought there wasn't as much social distancing. we've also had to upgrade estimates of deaths in new york because the peak is lasting longer. combination of those lead us to about 60,000, 61,000 deaths overall. more importantly, we've also looked at the trajectory of the models going forward and given some ideas when it might be possible to think about relaxing social distancing by state. >> what does that tell you? >> well, it says that can't be that soon. even the earliest states, hawaii, had a very small epidemic, doesn't seem to be taking off, probably first week of may could be thinking about it. and we're seeing states where they shouldn't be thinking of relaxing social distancing out into mid-j

chris murray. he is the director of the university's institute for health, metrics, and evaluation. thank you so much. the current coronavirus deaths in the united states, 56,000 today. states starting to lift their stay-at-home orders. as a result, i think that's part of it. you've adjusted your model. what's your forecast? >> our forecast, now, is for 74,000 deaths, as our best estimate. the range is pretty wide because there's a lot of unknown factors there. but our best estimate is going up. and we see these protracted, long peaks in some states. we're also seeing signs, in the mobility data, that people are getting more active, and that's also feeding into our assessment. >> yeah. the -- it was for -- i think it was 60,000, right, that was the low end, right? and now, it's up to 74,000. i mean, just in my limited time that i am out, on my way to work, in the car. i notice or if i'm going to the supermarket in a limited time, i do see more people out. more family members. i even see people out picnicking and social gatherings. friends hanging out together. people in parks or wha

chris murray said if we stop at may 1st, seeing return to almost where we are now, sometime in july. rebound may not happen in every state but substantial risk of rebound remains if we don't wait until most transmission is near zero in each state. matches up with "new york times" report that says government projections show a spike this summer in stay-at-home orders are lifted after 30 days. could mean as many as 200,000 deaths even if schools are closed and some social distancing still followed. government's numbers. i'll talk to political leaders from both coasts. for more, erika hill in new york. governor cuomo sounding cautiously optimistic that new york is slowing the infection rate despite the high deaths this week. >> reporter: he used those words. cautiously optimistic. hospital admissions are down, icu also down. good news. but deaths still high, 737 on thursday. seeing the dip in hospitalizations, fewer people needing to go into the icu is because of the measures put in place that people have been following. as you just pointed out, now is no time to lift any of those order

chris murray. he's responsible for the modele used by the white house to forecast coronavirus. he told me he's increasing the predicted death toll to 74,000. >> we're seeing the steady rise. you're seeing it in case numbers as well. there's a lot of signs that we're trending down, but there are signs here that things are not quite on the same trajectory they were a week ago or ten days ago. >> what's the lesson? what's the take away from the numbers going up to 74,000. >> we were trying to give some evidence some scientific basis for thinking about when social distancing might be relaxed. there's always a risk. >> multiple states are manning to reopen in the next few weeks. how concerns is that? >> we're all concerned of course. because we want to make progress. slowly. and carefully and safely. and with states opening up who in some of the states don't seem to have met the criteria in phase one. that's been laid out in the national plan. we're of course worried that this coronavirus which cleverly knows how to be transmitted from person to person will have a field day. as peop

this is from chris murray model, but experts are saying it's not really adding up.the coronavirus task force need to do independent modeling? i want to bring in -- >> we don't know. charles: okay. i'm going say it appear that is bill gates obviously was pretty pressing and there's been a lot of discussion about the role of silicon valley and how intrusive any aid from bill gates and others could be on our daily lives. >> right, charles, the fact is that even though viruses can spread exponentially we have no idea what the number of casualties will be or what the long-term damaging because we don't know how many people are dying from coronavirus. we don't know how many people are infected or how many people got it, we don't have all of the data. any modeling that we do is based on the set of assumptions that might be false. it could be that, you know, resident greatly overestimated it or could be that he underestimated. we are all guessing. no one knows. charles: what about -- you brought up china but we have italy and we have spain. i know a few weeks ago when this

chris murray who san expert who helps create models for the white house says we seem to be pretty close to the peak but the warning is this. the down slope is going to be quote, very slow. >> families across the u.s. are finding new ways to celebrate easter, celebrate pass overthis weekend. experts say that social distancing and stay-at-home orders they are working and dr. anthony fauci says a large number of antibody tests that could be available within the next week. >> let's take to you the white house. president trump is taking a slightly more cautious approach to re-opening the economy. he says he's looking at a date. he notes nothing will happen, though, until he's certain that the country will be healthy. >> as it has been for weeks new york is, by far, the hardest hit city in this country. there are now more cases in the state of new york, let's say, than any other country in the world. let let's get the latest from new york this morning. it's a staggering statistic that just the state of new york, just behind the u.s. if it were its own country would rank number two. >> reporte

chris murray says the u.s. seems to be at a peak, though he's warning the slope of the curve afterwards will be very slow. >> across the country this weekend, families are trying to find new ways to celebrate easter and passover. social distancing is being enforced at most churches and places of worship. experts say following the guidelines, that's helping. >>> at the white house, president trump is taking a slightly more cautious approach to reopening the company, noting nothing will happen until he is certain the country will be healthy. we just learned that new york city public schools will remain closed until the end of the school year. >> we have a reporter standing by to cover all angles, chris tan holmes is at the white house. and ryan young is in detroit. >> we start at the white house. kristen, talk to us about how president trump says he's going to make the decision about restarting the economy. >> there are questions as to whether or not this is his decision to make. you have to keep in mind, despite

i talked to chris murray who runs the washington university model. those curves could change a lot of people start to get out too much. then we have to deal with you norma's gaps -- with the enormous gaps for state and local governments. larry hogan of maryland suggests it could be as high as $500 million, and we have only begun to address that. david: let's talk about that specifically. there is something of a political battle brewing over the states. people like mitch mcconnell saying we should not be bailing out states that have been profligate in their pensions. how will that get results? we had president trump saying maybe we will condition it on whether they have sanctuary cities. rep. beyer: that is pretty much unconstitutional. few so-called sanctuary cities anywhere in the united states. got mcconnell's let them bankrupt, let them eat cake thing is the people that would be thrown out of work would be police officers and firefighters and the people that pick up the trash and the doctors and nurses , the people that keep our whole culture and

sorts of different things people are trying to pay attention to where we are on the curve, what chris murray is looking for is do we get to a baseline level of deaths in this country and i hate to sound clinical about this, but of 60 or fewer every day, once you get to that point, then we can isolate the patients and contact trace, and all the patients that are still becoming infected, it will be easier to control at that point. i think that's what he was saying. the virus is still going to be there, according to his model, but at a very low level sort of background activity. >> in the last hour, i've been talking to a number of doctors and epidemiologists, all of whom were talking about what governor cuomo referred to as the bridge out of the pandemic to the economy opening back up, people being able to go back to work and that bridge, according to governor cuomo, is testing, testing, anti-body testing but also to see who's positive and who's not. if that is the case, a number of the people i talked to in the last hour were saying, we are not yet set up state by state to do that level of te

i saw chris murray who came up with the models on tv a little while ago, actually on msnbc, he laid out the case very clearly. he said, listen, every day matters. and everything everybody does matters. and the sooner that states take this seriously and she shut down movement in populations and employ social distancing and get really serious about this, we will be able to cut these numbers, but if we don't, those numbers have a chance of going further up and up. you know, the rise is exponential. and we are at a point where -- where we can make a difference. and if we don't take action now, we could be seeing numbers that are much worse than what we heard today. >> hey, kim, the president seemed like this was news to him that states were competitively bidding against each other like ebay. he also quickly indicated the states, in effect, should be happy they're getting what they need. how do you think the republican governor of the bay state of massachusetts would feel about that? >> yeah. it was 11 days ago that he said charlie baker, the governor of massachusetts said that he told the p

charles: on that note, paul, in the last week we've gone from you know, one of the key models that chris murrayodel showing 93 potential deaths from coronavirus this year to 60,000 in today's report. so those are obviously good reports, good news too. this volatility, crazy as yesterday was in the month of march, average up day was up 5%, and the average down day was down 5.1%. unchanged seems like golly, a walk in the park, paul? >> yeah. when you look at the vix, the volatility index it is really hard to trade, to invest when the vix is above 30, let alone, 50, 60, 70. it was 85 a couple weeks ago. to your point and gary's point, it is clear march 23rd will end up marking the internal or momentum low, the point at which we saw maximum downside acceleration. we had, new low list was bigger in that period. a lot of things was that snowball being biggest right before it hit bottom. the rally has been constructive. throw in energy for a minute because it got so decimated. of course it will bounce the most. charles: right. >> i love semis and materials and health care. that those are not bad leade

chris murray says the u.s.at a peak, though he's warning the slope of the curve afterwards will be very slow.

chris murray, the director of the institute for health metrics and evaluation at the university of washingtoncoronavirus models are used by the white house. doctor, thank you so much. so let me give you the latest model for the u.s. you updated it today. it estimates nearly 66,000 total deaths by august 4th. that is up from about 60,000 from your last model, a nearly 10% increase. why are you revising this upward? >> well, a number of states have been updating their own death numbers. they've started to capture all those deaths that were being missed in elder care facilities, and so we've seen real increases in a number of states and, of course, it's natural that we -- our model, which is driven by the data, is going to reflect that increased number of deaths that the u.s. has experienced. >> okay. so, is that because they -- i don't know if you would know this. is that because they've increased it because they're opening back up and they're thinking that the numbers are going to go up or is this because people -- what's the factor there? >> the factor is that there were people dieing in elde

chris murray at the university of washington says this toll could hit 74,000 by august. listen to this. >> do you think that these states are opening too early, too soon? >> i certainly do. if you're focused on trying to protect people's health, then the answer is absolutely. it's a safer strategy to get the number of infections in the community down to a really low level and then testing and contact tracing and isolation can work. >> joining us now, dr. sanjay gupta, cnn's chief medical correspondent. sanjay, i wonder if the question is, are some states ready to relax these restrictions and others are not? they're based on the prevalence of cases, population densities, et cetera. what do you think the right answer is? >> you can look at the data on the country as a whole and state-by-state as well, and there's really no states that are probably at the point now where they can say they're absolutely doing adequate testing and have all the necessary testing, you know, infrastructure going forward, including the contact tracing, which is something dr. murray has talked abo

chris murray. we'll continue to check in with you on the models as they shift. we'll be right back.unced "motaur." for those who were born to ride, there's progressive. confident financial plans, calming financial plans, complete financial plans. they're all possible with a cfp® professional. find yours at letsmakeaplan.org. sun care is self care. with a cfp® professional. i used to not love wearing an spf just because i felt like it was so oily and greasy. but with olay regenerist whip spf 25 it's so lightweight - i love it! i'm busy philipps, and i'm fearless to face anything. with moderate to severe treplaque psoriasists uncover clearer skin that can last. in fact, tremfya® was proven superior to humira® in providing significantly clearer skin. tremfya® may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. serious allergic reactions may occur. tremfya®. uncover clearer skin that can last. janssen can help you explore cost support options. >>> we'll end the program with f

when i really dove into these models and talked to chris murray, the one that's sort of helping author these models, he's taking input now from other countries as well. initially the models were really based on china and saying, hey, if we do what china did, where were our models be, and realizing we couldn't necessarily do what china was doing in terms of stay-at-home orders. what i think is somewhat optimistic is that these other countries that have had stay-at-home orders, maybe not as strict as china or as early as china, have still had some benefit from that and that's informed these models. jake, when i take a closer look, even state by state, i've looked community by community at some of these models, that's wide variation, jake. new york, i looked at the variation, somewhere between 300 to 1,800 people who may die during the peak days. so, significant variation at each level. we've still got to be a little humble with regard to these models. >> right, they're not facts, they're just projections based on the input of facts. dr. deborah birx who heads the coronavirus task force a

chris murray, the chair of this, gave us a preview for what this new model is going to look like todayy. listen to this. >> there's been more social distancing across the country than i think we expected. certainly, they're going to go down for a number of states in the south. like florida that will certainly come down. the other phenomenon that's sort of a little bit of a counterbalance to that is that places like new york seem to be stuck at the peak for longer than we originally expected. >> doctor, what about that? why is new york stuck at the peak? do we know? >> yeah, i mean i think it's a big question right now. i think there's probably some kind of necessary interactions that are maintaining viral transmission at the level that it is. even with essential work, there's people going to grocery stores, there is still activity. i know during the last two weeks, we've asked people to delay essential tasks if possible to flatten the curve. that seems to have worked. the big question, as we are flat, how quickly the descent will be. that also has to be with human behavior. my drive in

the university of washington's professor chris murray, who i know you're familiar with his work, he runs the model frequently cited by your task force, he told cnn that he is worried if the country opens up too soon, quote, the risk of rebound is very great. and according to his model, when it comes to stay at home and social and physical distancing measures, quote, if we were to stop at the national level by may 1st, we're seeing a return to almost where we are now, sometime in july. do you agree with him? and what happens if parts of the country try to go back to some semblance of normal but the testing and contact tracing capacity is not there? >> well, i mean, chris is a very good moldideler and we relied o him heavily to give us capability to make projections. but i believe what they were referring to in that model, jake, and it's important, i agree, that's why i said a few moments ago, if you just say, okay, it's whatever, may 1st, click, turn the switch on, obviously if you do it in an all-or-none way, there's an extraordinary risk of there being a rebound. in that respect, that m

and they put a number on this, jake, chris murray and his team over at the university of washington say it has to get below .03%. that's about 90 people per day or so. fewer than that would be dying in the country on any given day, 90. as you mentioned, may 1st, i think it's a thousand, if that's what the numbers show. so it's nowhere close. but also, not to belabor this point, jake, that you and i have been talking about for three months, testing has been important, is currently important, and will continue to be important. and i'm talking about testing for the virus. antibody testing is important as well, but the viral testing, the swab testing, is always going to be important, because as we start to think about reopening, you're still going to find people who are infected, you still have to be able to isolate them. you still have to be able to trace their contacts. it's a laborious task but it's important to get to that point so we can reopen the question. without it, you can't find those people, and second, there will be a crisis of confidence because you don't know, is the person n

i'm looking at the chris murray model, it suggests that april 16th could be sort of the high-water markf you will. 2600 deaths. how often is the team reevaluating its own modeling to, to give us an update in terms of, again, maybe these projections are too high, maybe they're too low and also how will it inform, just how much longer the nation has to be shut down? >> well, you speak about the murray modeling and what i can tell you is that dr. deborah birx and her team did modeling that very closely aligned to what, what the murray modeling suggested, charles, an that was the information that was presented to the president over this weekend when he made the decision to call on every american, regardless of whether you're in a community that is impacted by coronavirus, to continue to avoid gatherings of more than 10, work from home if you can, use a drive-through instead of going into restaurants, if you're sick, stay home, all of those principles are available. although i must say to you, charles, as you're a great champion much american free enterprise, i'm sitting here at the walmart

we may decrease the rate at which it circulates tremendously, and originally when chris murray wrote his paper he said it would come down to less than 90 deaths a day, which seems like a lot but obviously a lot less than we're dealing with right now. i think it's tough to get to zero, because this virus is contagious. we know it can be quite lethal. we may slow it way down, but not zero. >> the fda authorized a saliva test for the, quote, emergency use of diagnosing covid-19. how would that work? would that dramatically increase the capability of people to be tested? >> so one thing i'll point, this was an emergency authorization test. i only bring this up, jake, because there has been, understandably, a rush to get testing out there, different ideas in terms of how we evaluate this disease. people want that quickly. this was a -- it looks promising. it was based on 60 patients, they were tested using the saliva test compared to swab tests which is more the gold standard. and they were 100% accurate, obviously a good sign. it's obviously a lot more comfortable too, the swabs, people

at the institute for health metrics and evaluation have been doing just phenomenal work led by chris murray. what i can say is those models confirm everything dr. fauci and dr. birx have been trying to surface to the president, which is we are flattening the curve but every model builds an assumption. the models coming out of act now or other models are built into policy we need to recognize and embrace. let's be clear here, the model dr. murray is re-i.iterating ev day with his team, assumes we're social distancing as we are currently until the end of may. that's an assumption. so any forecast of economic or health builds in key assumptions. if we want to continue to flatten the curve, the forecasts we're relying on say let's keep doing what we're doing until the end of may. >> we also heard from the treasury secretary mnuchin today, as well as the president in his briefings, he keeps pushing, pushing hard to reopen. we're going to talk about a new task force being set up and contemplated at the white house. the president wants to see the government reopen, that's very clear. and that's th

chris murray at the university of washington. also, joining us chief medical correspondent dr. sanjay gupta. cnn medical analyst, dr. jennifer lee, as well a clinical soci associa associate professor. can you come to a conclusion how the united states reached peak daily death toll? >> that's what the model is saying. we rerun the model, basically, almost every night. and the new returns from different states are suggesting different peaks in different states. but, overall, at the national level, we seem to be pretty much close to the peak. our model has pretty even numbers for the next four days or so. so it's not as if we are going to see an abrupt peak and decline. but we do see it leveling off. >> overall projected deaths in the united states, the model now projects about 61,500 people dying from coronavirus by august. yesterday, i think it was about 60,000. or earlier this week. what -- if -- if the peak is now, is there a reason that the number is a little bit larger than it was previously? >> yeah, it is, because some states still haven't fully implemented social distanci

i think it's worth pointing out as well, anderson, you talked last night to chris murray who made some of these models that everyone is now citing in terms of, you know, the number of people who could die. those models are predicated on the idea that we essentially have every state in the country with stay-at-home orders. that has to happen by the end of this week, he said, in order for us to even have that few deaths. so, you know, i just don't understand it at this point. i don't get it. obviously the president has made some of these recommendations, whatever, 17 days ago for the first time nationally. but there's lots of states, even where i am here in georgia -- i know the order has been now made, but it doesn't go into effect, i think, until friday or so. >> yeah. same in florida, friday. >> same in florida, yeah. i mean, those models, again, are spread rated on the fact we essentially have a national stay at home plan. other countries like italy and everyone always cites italy as a worst case scenario, but they ultimately did do a national plan. much smaller country, i get it, bu

. >> o'brien: i wanted to know what pandemic modeler chris murray thought of all of this. the institute for health metrics and evaluatithe university of washington. >> o'brien: its models are often cited by president trump's coronavirus task force. so, really, when you think about it, chris, there's no scenario going forward th you can envision that doesn't demand mass testing, if not testing for everyone >> the issue will be, you know, the capacity to test. right,ow many tests are praccally feasible come june state by state? and it may not be anywhere neare enough tble to do full-scale mass testing. so then if you take measures off ma1, and there's a pretty quick rebound, so by mid-july, we'd be right backe we are now. >> o'brien: really? actly the rate of death and hospitalization that we're dealing with? >> pretty much, yeah. so, we're not going to want to take off measures may 1, let's put ithat way. >> and the second wave won't be like the first wave. >> o'brien: that the president isn't heeding scientific warnings, once again, is causing alarm among those who've been

and the way chris murray and the folks at the university of washington says when it drops below 60 people per day then we start to think about the fact that we have this infection under some sort of control. we can isolate those people. we can contact trace. we can do all those things and talk about lifting some of these stay-at-home orders. what happens if you don't? the numbers don't come down that low, chris. it just takes longer to get to that point. so, you have to stretch out the stay-at-home orders length and you worry that you're going to have a rebound, a resurgence here. we always look at this in terms of this curve. that's a nice curve if you can abide by that as long as it stays below what hospital capacity is. you don't want to see that because you can have several peaks within one country here in the united states. >> we have a weird paradox working right now where the closer you get to the clinical community, the less they know and the less they want to project. they can't even tell somebody like me what course of symptoms i'm on and what duration it will be. and i'm not cr

they are looking at this last stage here, how many people are dying on any given day, and the way chris murray and the folks at the university of washington have said, when i drops below 60 people per day, then we start to think about the fact that we have this infection under some sort of control. we can isolate those people, we can contact trace, we can do all those things and we can talk about lifting some of these stay at home orders. what happens if you don't? well, the numbers don't come down that low, chris. it takes longer to get to that point. so, you have to stretch out the stay at home order's length and you worry that they're going to have a rebound, a resurgence here. we always look at this inthe cu. it's a nice curve, but if you start to see this, where it's going up and down, obviously, you don't want to see that, because you could have several peaks again in one country. >> we have a weird paradox working right now, where the closer you get to the clinical community, the less they know. and the less they want to project. they can't even tell somebody like mel what course of sym

if you talk to chris murray at the university of washington, he even puts a number on it. he said there has to be futer than 60 deaths per day in the united states. like you, erin, no amount of death you can talk about that seems reasonable, but having to put a number on it is what he did. he said 60 is a reasonable number, at which point that's a low enough background sort of level that i think we can start to return people to work. >> all here, thank you very much. >>> and now to more on the federal response to the pandemic, which also just came up in that briefing. frustrated governors in need of supplies are asking who's in charge? you may have heard one of the questions there regarding kansas. who is in charge? is it the administrator of fema? is it the president's son-in-law, jared kushner? laila santiago is out front. >> the states have been told you're on your own, it's the wild, wild west. >> we are running dangerously low on ppe. >> those supplies are being diverted by the federal government. >> literally a month after president trump declared covid-19 a national