chris murray. he's obviously the president of the institute for health in washington. we cited models from the white house projecting deaths. dr. murray, thank you for being with us. can you walk us through the new numbers? i think the last time we talked, i can't remember exactly, but i think your projections were in the 60,000 range. they had been as high as 81,000, i think, at one point. what are the specific factors that have made the numbers jump so high just since last week? >> well, we had been operating in the modelling assuming that states were going to stay the course, keep social distancing on through to the end of may, bring new infections down to a really low level and states would switch over to a testing, contact tracing, isolation strategy. that's clearly not happening, so we've now built into the modelling what we're seeing around the country, both in terms of the mandates coming off, but also even before the mandates came off where we see in the mobility data people starting to get out more, having more interaction. all that translates into greater ris

chris murray. director of the institute for health metrics. it's been cited by the white house, which now projects deaths above 134,000. dr. murray, thank you for being with us. can you walk us through the new numbers? because i think the last time we talked, i can't remember exactly but i think your projections were in the 60,000 range. they had been as high as 81,000, i think at one point. what are the specific factors that have made the numbers jump so high, just since last week? >> well, we had been operating and modeling assuming that states were going to stay the course. keep social distancing on through to the end of may. bring new infections down to a really low level. and, then, states would switch over to a testing, contact tracing, isolation strategy. that's clearly not happening. so we've now built into the modeling what we're seeing around the country. both, in terms of the mandates coming off. but, also, even before the mandates came off where you see, in the mobility data, people starting to get out more. having more interaction.

joining us, chris murray, director of the university of washington's institute for health metrics andation. also michael osteholm, director of the university of minnesota's center for infectious disease research and policy. also cnn's chief medical correspondent dr. sanjay gupta. dr. murray, your newest forecast showing numbers trending downward, can you explain what you've been finding? >> yes. released from today we're forecasting through to early august 132,000 deaths. that's down. that's a real surprise to us. and again, it's reflecting that the scale-up of mobility that started late april, ran all the way through may, took off over the weekend, has not yet translated into big numbers. so the data are suggesting that our forecasts were a bit high. we're coming in at 132,000 deaths now. but there are some states that look pretty troublesome in the near term. >> when you say they look pretty troublesome in the near term, what do you mean? >> well, alabama, louisiana, florida, the carolinas, and arizona, the trend up in cases has been there, but it's also turning into a tick up in de

chris murray is the director.nd his team wrote a model that, unlike many others at the time, factored in the human >> if you ignore tavioral response, you're going to massively overshoot. and so, i think it is a reasonle strategy to try to look at models, like the economists do, which build in how individuals, local government, state government are going to respond to the problems 'r they unfold. >> so i'm sure yinterested in seeing all the states. >> reporter: producing speedy state-by-state results consistently lower projections, thuniversity of washington model was frequently cited by the whithouse in daily coronavirus briefings. >> and i think if you ask chris murray, he would say... >> reporter: but the model initially assumed there would be widespread adopti social distancing restrictions in the u.s. once it came clear that wasnha ppening, the modeling team went back to the drawing board, releasing a new version on y 4. it now uses mobility data gleaned from cell phone usage to better understand ho cwell peo

chris murray on new coronavirus projections. coronavirus is expected to make a trip to the grocery store a little more expensive. meat prices are expected to jump by up to 20%. that's if you can even find it. here's cbs' dean reynolds. >> reporter: as meat processing plants gradually resumed operations, the governor of iowa, which has seen a spike in covid-19 cases, was optimistic. >> we are leading, and we're leading by example, and we're going to continue to lead. >> reporter: but as the huge tyson foods plant in water came back online, sporting a retrofitted workspace and new protective gear, there was word that over 1,000 workers there had tested positive, more than twice as many as the governor reported the day before it reopened. no wonder workers are wearing. >> everybody is scared. everybody. i don't know, because i neepped money. >> reporter: and consumers want the meat. empty grocery shelves reflected a scarcity that prompted wendy's to cross out some of its fast-food favorites, at least temporarily. costco capped meat

chris murray the director behind the model says it's possible, possibly because people are still wearing masks. do you worry people they are relax about this as weather warms up? >> it's a bit of a paradox. maybe part of human nature. that we do something and it works we stop worrying about it. so we stop doing it. that's been one of the challenges. the public health officials about this fighting this virus. which is the they told everyone to stay home and bend the curve. we're home it's not bad maybe we should leave. people wear masks and maybe we don't have to wear masks. it's hard to prove the counter factual. the fact of the matter is first of all i should say the at 140,000 that's much worse than the model showed a few weeks ago. the number is still way too high. and it's much higher than it should be. than it had to be. but to the extent good things there's progress in the model. that encourage us to do more good things not less good things. >> if i have to wear a mask and i do all the time. someone doesn't catch me with my mask down trying to put it on or something walking my dog.

this is chris murray's model. increased his estimate from 80 or 90,000 deaths in the united states to 140,000 deaths by august. i hope that doesn't come true. but we need to be very careful. georgia, at least, did not meet the cdc's basic guidelines of 14 days with decreasing cases, and i think that's just another warning sign. >> okay. as always, dr. larry brilliant, good to have you with us. thank you very much. >> thank you, ana. >>> up next, coronavirus and your kids, the new cdc alert telling doctors to be on the lookout for a covid-related illness appearing in children. what parents need to know. what we are learning about this syndrome here in the "cnn newsroom" next. [horns honking] birthdays aren't cancelled. hope isn't quarantined. first words aren't delayed. caring isn't postponed. courage isn't on hold. and love hasn't stopped. u.s. bank thanks you for keeping all of our spirits strong. we've donated millions to those in need and are always here for our customers and employees. we've donated millions t

chris murray, when he was describing one of the major movers in his model. he said it's the motion. it's how mobile we are. and that's the same thing as opening up. >> thank you, both. i appreciate it. >>> new projections with numbers of cases and deaths soaring. but with more and more states starting to reopen now, who will pay the price? and how high will it be? every financial plan needs a cfp® professional -- confident financial plans, calming financial plans, complete financial plans. they're all possible with a cfp® professional. find yours at letsmakeaplan.org. home instead has helped seniors stay home. now, staying home isn't just staying in the place they love. it's staying safe. home instead. to us, it's personal. >>> new numbers on the coronavirus pandemic are staggering. projecting 134,000 deaths in the united states, by august 4th. nearly double its last projection. data now reflecting early days of states beginning to reopen. now, i want to bring in andy slavitt. he is the former acting administrator on the center for medicare and medicaid services. andy, appreciate yo

when the origin the chris murray studies came out from washington, he was saying that there would be 60 or 70,000 deaths by august 3rd. clearly, we've already passed that and it isn't anywhere near august 3rd. that was always the target. this is going to be a much longer pandemic. we're going to be dealing with it in the united states until a vaccine plus the time it takes to vaccinate everybody, so if we're adding 2,000 deaths a day right now, and we're at 79,000 right now, it's not going to take very many days before we exceed 100,000. and each of these are a human being. each of these is a tragedy. many of them could have been averted, so we need to think about, this is a huge number for us to be dealing with in may. >> yeah. in may. that's what's so scary. all the projections were through august or at least until we hit august. dr. larry brilliant and dr. gigi el-bayoumi, thank you very much, both, i could always ask you more questions, there's so many. so much we don't know yet. thank you. >> thank you, ana. >>> i want to talk more, though, about the new concerns involving the c

i talked to chris murray, the author, one of the authors of this projection, ihme projection and he said yeah, the numbers have been going up even not taking into account the fact that these states are reopening, so we're going to certainly see increasing numbers on these projections as it is, as these states start to reopen. i can tell you here in georgia, we had the second largest number of deaths over the weekend, about six days after the states started to reopen up. so you know, it's not entirely surprising that the numbers will go up. i will tell you these projections overall have been from ihme kind of low compared to other projections out of columbia, out of the cdc. so there's a large range from 30,000 to 150,000. obviously it's not going to be as low as 30,000 now. we know what the lowest number is going to be, but these models are, have sort of been all over the place and depending how you look at them, when you look at the mitigation measures going into place it gives you very different numbers. >> as we look at them, though, right, if they are at this point all we have to go

and if they do go out, just simply wearing masks, according to chris murray, makes a huge difference. they expect the numbers to be higher despite states opening. why? because people were wearing masks more than they expected and they wewere having more of impact than they realized. so when you go out, wear your mask. a lot of people are doing it but it does seem to make a difference. >> why am i laughing? a lot of people are doing it and that's what they base their projections on and the president won't wear a mask. how do we expect people in this country to take it seriously when they have to basically believe their president is an idiot? >> this worries me. i'm not trying to hammer this point. obviously the president is worried about the exposure he had in the white house. that's why he started taking this medication. >> and he has people tested all the time and he's doing deep tracing on the people who get it. all the things he doesn't want to do on a national level. so he's worried. >> correct. he's worried about himself, which is why he is taking this medication now, a medicatio

chris murray says, quote, this rise of mobility in the last week or ten days is likely leading to someransmission. this is what the rise in mobility looks like, all of this from the weekend. take a look at what happened in panama city beach in florida. as you can see, people at the beach are heading to the beach. there they are on the beach. clearly not

chris murray, one of the experts behind a key model often cited by the white house.octor, 95,823 confirmed deaths in the united states. what do you think we'll hit the sad milestone of 100,000 deaths? >> i think we'll hit the milestone of 100,000 deaths over the four-day weekend. so coming soon, unfortunately. and so, yeah, pretty soon. >> pretty soon, 100,000 americans dead over the past three months alone, march, april, and may. what will the daily death toll look like as we go into the summer? >> well, we expect the daily death toll to go down slowly. that's the current forecasts. there are four states that have got our attention already, where the death count is starting to creep up and the case count is a leading indicator. those are arizona, florida, texas, and wisconsin. but overall for the whole country we expect a slow decline for the next two months. >> as the country reopens, people are moving around a lot more. but that hasn't necessarily led to an increase in cases, at least not yet. why do you think that might be? >> i think, you know, we've been surpri

chris murray of the institute for health metrics and evaluation. dr. murray, good to see you again.thank you so much for coming on. two weeks ago we started to see this move toward reopening, and that's really changed your modelling. is this happening because of reopening and relaxing social distancing? >> absolutely. the reason we're increasing our forecasts is exactly that, states -- we originally had thought that people would go the distance, keep social distancing in place right through to the end of may, bring the number of active infectious cases down to a very low level, and then we could have transitioned into managing that number of cases through testing, contact tracing, isolation. >> mm-hmm. >> but what's happened is the states have relaxed early, people have heard the message, they've gotten out, they've become more mobile, they're having more contact, and we're seeing the effects already of that transition and then that's playing out in the projections. unfortunately. >> yeah, i judge how many people are out by the amount of traffic that i have to go through every day,

chris murray, the director of the institute for health metrics and evaluation.r, appreciate it. good to see you. so you're a doctor, not a politician. i just want you to respond on the facts, please, so people know the truth. your model has doubled its death toll prediction to 134,000 by august. and despite what the president says, it does not assume a stop in mitigation, is that correct? >> that's correct. i think the president was probably thinking about the johns hopkins model that was a scenario of no mitigation with the 3,000 deaths on june 1st number. but in our model we see deaths going up much higher than we originally thought. and that's really being driven by people getting out and about more, more mobility, and most importantly, states relaxing social distancing mandates. that's pushing up contact rates, pushing up transmission. there are some positive factors that are actually built into what we're doing that are helping make it less bad than it's going to be, and that is the rise of testing and contact tracing and a little bit the effect of rising t

and sanjay, chris murray, who developed the university of washington imhe model, said there's longerail of deaths and his team is now using a hybrid approach gathering mobility data and data to, quote, reflect the effect of premature relaxation of social distancing. this is what you and i have expressed frustration about now for weeks, which is, governors are relaxing these guidelines, and the economic pain is very real, and nobody makes light of it. but without widespread testing, so that while we reopen our economy, we're able to know who has the virus, who doesn't, and isolate people who have it, we're just going to extend this economic pain, not to mention, of course, the health pain. and it's like mayor vaughn from "jaws," excited for a wonderful summer with lots of economy, we can't do that if there's a great white shark in the ocean. >> i agree completely. and we have to outpace this virus. and, you know, we've known for some time that a vaccine would be obviously a significant way to reduce, you know, to stop the spread, obviously. we know an effective therapeutic, maybe we'l

. >> yeah, i think that's right and chris murray has made this point and his projections go into the beginning of august but the virus is out there. and certain situations it can be a deadly virus. so we know this, and there's certainly things that can be done to greatly reduce the growth of that. we know the numbers are going to go up, but how fast they go up, the pace of that growth is something that can be addressed. again, these critical comparisons, there's going to be time to look back. now we have to be looking forward. but south korea, they have fewer than 300 people who have died. their first patient was diagnosed on the first day the first patient was diagnosed in the united states. again, that's going to come off -- as a doctor i'm not trying to draw those comparisons for the sake of criticism but rather what did they do? if there is a second wave what can we learn? because it looks there may be a second wave but it looks we can do a lot better even short of having a new medication or new vaccine, there are things we can clearly do better. how do you explain fewer than 300

chris murray is director of the institute and joins us now. dr.odel increases the number of deaths by thousands. what specifically made the number tick up? >> well, the number has gone up because we've seen these protracted peaks in some places. you know, it took a while for new york, for example, to come off the peak of deaths. now fortunately it's on its way down. we've seen that phenomenon in a number of places. we've seen states adding presumptive deaths to their death counts. not all states are doing that. we're in this funny zone where we've got the states adding in prufrpive deaths where people couldn't get tested before they passed away. so, we're seeing quite a lot of fluctuation in the numbers that's contributing. and remember that the increased numbers there are still assuming what's not going to happen, namely that people would have kept to social distancing through the end of may. we're working hard to factor in how that's going to bump up the numbers as we expect to see some longer and resurgent epidemics in some states. >> there's n

when we talked to chris murray, he said initially the mobility data suggested people were actually doing a pretty good job of staying at home. and the way that they got this data they were looking at cell phone carriers, anonymous data when they added in four cell phone carriers, a different picture started to emerge. people moving around more than they thought. but, right, it's no surprise, to your point, that the numbers are anticipated to go up as these states start to reopen. there will be more infections, there will likely be more hospitalizations, and more deaths. and, you know, one thing, i'll just say, maybe it goes without saying, is there are criteria to open up the states. the conversation right now in the united states seems to be not only do we want to open, we want to do it now and not even abide by the criteria that were set out. there were criteria. and so people are really, as dr. fauci put it, leap frogging. everybody wants things to open, but now no one even seems to want to pay attention to the ease easy to read criteria. >> even some of that easy to read criteria, th

chris murray, director of the institute for health metrics and valuation at the university of washington with us is dr. sanjay gupta. dr. murray, your projections for overall deaths has been revised down several thousand. that's good news. what is behind that? >> i must say we were pretty surprised, anderson. we were expecting to probably go up because of the big surge in mobility in the last two, three weeks that we've seen in the cell phone data. but what's really being fascinating is there's not a strong correlation between where mobility has gone up and the trend in cases in deaths. even when we take into account the increase in testing. and our explanation for that is if you dig a little bit deeper and look into how the fraction of the population in different states are wearing masks, we think that's the key difference there. both their behavior and mask wearing. 40% of the u.s. wears a mask all the time. about 80% wears a mask sometimes, and that's probably helping separate out that impact of rising mobility from turning into increased transmission all over the country. >> so what

because the number of people who could still die from this still, the numbers, we talk to chris murray on a regular basis, those could be low. even with this updated estimate, i think it's still low. we're not doing the things we should do about it. they gave clear guidelines. 14-day downward trend, have testing in place. what happened to that conversation? it just sort of disappeared. the states say we're going re-open without following clear, easy to understand guidelines. >> what happened was the president suggested that the government look into injecting human beings with disineffect tonight and then got mortified and embarrassed about it -- i don't know about mortified but certainly embarrassed and ridiculed. >> yeah, and he sided with the protesters, too. the people out there in michigan and elsewhere saying we need to re-open our lives and re-open government, and saying that this is oppressive. he sided with them and that was a signal to the governors despite what happened early on with the georgia governor, he decided that he was going to side with them, and cthat changd the wh

chris murray when he was describing -- one of the major movers in his model, he said it's a mover, it's the motion. it's how mobile we are, and that's the same thing as opening up. >> thank you both. i appreciate it. >>> new projections with numbers of cases and deaths soaring, but with more and more states starting to reopen now, who will pay the price and how high will it be? [anthony] hey mama, what's up? [mama] i'm confused. confused about what, everything ok? yeah, i only see one price on my phone bill. that doesn't sound confusing mama. you're on t-mobile, taxes and fees are included. oh come on, there's always extra fees! not on t-mobile mama. why can't all my bills be like this? i don't know mama. bye mama, love you. anthony? umph! at t-mobile, taxes and fees are included. and right now, when you switch your family, get 4 lines of unlimited for just $35 a line. "show me what you're made of." so we showed it our people, sourcing and distributing more fresh food than anyone... we showed it our drivers helping grocers restock their shelves. we showed it how we're donating millions

and now chris murray's new model is predicting that we will have 140,000 cumulative deaths by the first week of august. that's an explosive growth in a virus that can cause that much death in such a small number of months with such an acceleration. we do not have it under control. the virus is leading us, not the other way around. and we open up recklessly at our expense. we have to open up, but we have to do it cautiously, and there has to be a quid pro quo. every time we open up, we have to cram down on the existing viruses, put a circle around them with absolute quarantine. if we quarantine a few people, then the many, the rest of us, can begin to get out, but you can't do one without the other. >> dr. fauci and other public health officials testifying with him tuesday agreed that covid-19 testing is not at the level it should be in this country, despite president trump claiming monday that the u.s. had met the moment and prevailed on testing. how much testing is enough, do you think? >> so, if you have a cancer, a melanoma on your nose -- i hope you don't. i hope i don't. and you di

professor chris murray of the institute for health met tricks and evaluation at the university of washington has been running a model of the coronavirus and professor murray's model which has in the past been used by the white house has now been revised to project about 135,000 covid-19 deaths in the united states by early august. here is professor murray with ka katy ter today. >> the big increase in numbers is taking into account the trends in mobility.r today. >> the big increase in numbers is taking into account the trends in mobility.ur today. >> the big increase in numbers is taking into account the trends in mobility. people are out and more active in the last few days and there is taking off of social distancing that has a direct impact how much contact and mobility that people will have. that gets factored into the model and that's driving up the numbers. >> professor murray's model predicted that we would be roughly exactly where we are today on the number of deaths and now he's predicting a dramatic increase. "the new york times" is reporting that the trump administration has a mo

and if they do go out, just simply wearing masks according to chris murray, the author of these projections, makes a huge difference they said. they expected the numbers to be higher. they revised the numbers down despite states opening. why? mainly because he said people were wearing masks more than they expected and the masks were having more of an impact than they realized. there's a piece of good news or actionable news for people who go out. wear your mask. a lot of people are doing it. it does seem to make a difference. >> why am i laughing? a lot of people are doing it. that's what they base their model on in terms of the downward projection and the president won't wear a mask. i mean, how do we expect people in this country to really take it seriously when doing so means they have to basically believe their president is an idiot? >> you know, this worries me. i know it's -- i'm not trying to hammer this point, but obviously the president is worried about an exposure that he had in the white house. i think that's why he started taking this medication, right? sounds like there was a s

listen to chris murray who runs the model explaining why he thinks people are getting out of the house and you'll have a higher death toll. >> what's happened is states have relaxed early. people have heard the message, they have gotten out, they become more mobile. they're having more contact, and we're seeing the effects already of that transition and then that's playing out in the projections, unfortunately. >> jen, the increased mobility is inevitable as states reopen. i think one of the big subquestions to that increased mobility is how do people behave? will they keep their social distance, will they wear masks in public and so forth? >> good morning, john. good to be here. it is a critical time and a critical question. from surveys we have done and others, people are still afraid, and most say that they want to be very cautious, but as you noted, the people are moving. i think we're seeing fatigue of staying inside, and also some mixed messages. one state is doing one thing, another state is doing something else. federal government has provided just very general guidelines. so i

. >> repeporter: chris murray, director of the institute for health metrics and evaluation at the universityf washington isn't mincing words. relaxing social distancing guidelines too soon, he says, will cause a major spike. >> this rise in mobility the last week or 10 days is likely leading to some increased transmission. >> reporter: the model's projections, favored by the white house, worry health officials as states across the country reopen. katie meeks owns a houston toy store, once again open. >> we had people right at 10:00. i had people call the day before asking, and they were here first thing ready to shop in person with their mask on. >> are you having any issues with social distancing? >> no, i would say for the most part, people have been respectful. we put a sign on the door asking people to please wear a mask when they come in and reminding them that we will be practicing social distancing in the store. >> reporter: people wore masks in her store. but across the country, more instances of defiance. in flint, michigan, three people are charged with murder for allegedly killing