chris waller is saying a soft landing is still possible, but the landing strip shrinking. i love that image. what are we going to get next, is the feds a job report, we get that tomorrow. what if jobs start softening. the jobless claims rose a bit. but they are still very very low. they are expecting a. tight labor market. we will see some slow in payroll. to, $50,000 after 315, that is still considered a solid gain. unemployment as close to a 50 year low, average hourly loading, the year-over-year rate is slower. before the pandemic that is double what it used to be. it is strong wage gains. the feds are meeting on november 2. even if you got a cpi that continues to slow. if you get a jobs report that looks like this and inflation stays high, it is unlikely that the fed will make any shift in its message and any part of what we are seeing now. shery: are global economics and policy editor, kathleen hays. we will get more fed speak later today. we have a a speaker later today. for more on the flying u.s. stocks, given the jobs report, let's bring in our equities reporter.

chris waller sees rate hikes into next year. charlie evans, you heard him, 4.5% to 4.75 percent. he thinks supply chain forces are getting more into this inflation trend, that is a danger. neel kashkari quite a ways away from a pause. he is a dove that became one of the hawks leading the pack. that's where they are. waller said today a soft landing is still possible, but the landing strip is shrinking. that's one reason they want to hit it hard now. they say they have to slow the economy down now to avoid having to slow it down even more later if they do not do enough. i think that is the thinking and will be by november 2 when they have the next meeting. rishaad: as you were talking about growth, i wanted to bring up the kpmg ceo survey which came out day before yesterday, which highlighted the 91% of ceo's they surveyed believe there will be recession. 57% think it will be take deep one. kathleen: when you raise rates like this this fast, look what happened in the mortgage market in the u.s. the 30-year fixed rate reached the highest in a long time. that is already hitting home

interviews i ever did is one of those mornings on sunday when i was, you get up and there was chris waller>> on the west coast at this point. for you it's a lot earlier. >> i was in the white house at this time. building up a few floors and chris hits me with a similar question you did and i come up withea a set of deadly sins, i just ran through them, the intellectual counterfeiting, phaedo and subsidies, currency manipulation, all that. and it just through the trilogy of books i wrote on china, i became more and more alarmed. the last one, crouching tiger, was about how you and i as consumers and our trade deficit with china effectively fund the military and its seven minutes that it hit the palace in taiwan and in building asymmetric weapons meaning the aircraft carrier that cost a ton to make literally with a million-dollar missilepr. it's how we failed and we were not as aggressive cracking down on the horrific human life abuses were essentially you use the slave labor and of the the healthiest ones are organ donors. i get back. to that and that's what i felt like every time i had the

look at charlie evans of the chicago fed, loretta mester, chris waller speaking earlier today.ou can see, inflation expectations are high. headed up to 4.5% to 4.75. that is the message from the fed. kathleen: what about --haidi: what about what the fed is saying for the jobs market? historically we have seen under treating in recessionary conditions and downgrading activity. could this be a different set of circumstances we are seeing for the jobs market in the u.s.? kathleen: so far the fed has said they see a still strong labor market. people were talking about jobless claims rising. at 219,000, that is still below the pre-pandemic level, 224,000. the question is, how week will it get? the concern is growing that if you have a recession it will get weaker. payrolls at 255, less than the month before. that is considered a healthy jobs gain. unemployment is steady at 3.7%. still at a 50 year low. average dollar lee earnings, 5.0% year-over-year from 5.2 percent, slowing down a little bit but still double the pre-pandemic rate of wage gain. this is a solid report, at least for

also get to fed president neel kashkari twice, chicago fed president charlie evans, fed governor chris wallerother twice. should work for everybody. jonathan: i can't wait. tom: it is too much. jonathan: kashkari twice. tom: we should give more formal speeches like in new york. jonathan: but we spoke and we are listening to him and a week later we are talking about a pivot again. dan morris of bmp par -- bnp paribas now. june was aggressive and everyone's are talking about a pivot. is it a bear market rally this week, what is different between now and then? daniel: we have to keep in mind what might be a driver for a sustained rally, but at least for a few weeks right now. we appreciate on one hand the sentiment is very bad. no one likes equities and no one likes risk. but at the same time, because the sentiment is so low, you get a bit of good news and i think you can see some of the price action we already have. so going into the third quarter earnings season and we have private -- surprises, market is looking for good news, i think it will be up. tom: this goes back to dr. coronado years a

given the fact you were once a fed governor, can you translate for us what we can understand from chris waller'sy point taking apart all of the bullish equity strategist out there, every argument, and saying, no, we are not going to stop our hiking? not because of financial instability, because of employment figures? mike: what happened -- randy: what happened was that after the late july meeting i thought powell was very clear about what they were going to do. the markets would not accept it. everyone started at -- started coming out saying, we are going to keep at it. in jackson hole, i'm going to say one thing a times, which is we are going to do that. [laughter] i think what has now happened is, the fed is -- has kind of entrenched themselves. no matter what happens we are going to do it. which i think is broadly the right message to be sending, they should still be taking things a little bit more nuanced about what the data will say, etc., etc. they have gotten themselves into a corner, which is a good corner to be in, because they have to execute on this, but i think they got there in a wa

esther george, lisa cook and chris waller. spin this at a time when people are ratcheting up their expectations with what the fed has to do with rate hikes, given the -- priced into the market is 4.5%. -- 4.5%? jonathan: it is not raining on jp morgan this morning. the stock is up 2.4%. the take away from these numbers from jp morgan, what is the number one talking point for you and the team right now? >> he raised his net interest income by $3.5 billion. where is the regulatory concern there? deposits have slowed to 3%. is there more wiggle room to them lending at a greater fate in the face of a worse economic environment? jonathan: the buybacks are set to come back, potentially set to resume early next year. what is left this hour? how many more bank earnings do we have? lisa: it depends on if you include 8:00 a.m. but we have two. jonathan: ok. i want to start with the rates story. can we start with the two-year yesterday? through 450, really powerful move. have you rethought where the fed funds are going to peak next year?