thank you. >> is it time to get more bullish based on the momentum that we have and based on what chris waller said. the way liesman characterized it was that waller said the quiet part out loud and talking about cuts? >> well, i think what i heard from that is that we're comfortable with where policy is and there's reinforcement that they're done hiking and we're on a pause. this pause period, and i mentioned this before on the program this pause period between the last hike and the first cut, markets tend to hold up pretty well, so if the question is what will happen between now and december 31st, i think that there is room for stocks to continue going up, but i don't think it matters. december 31st occurs and suddenly we give it all up and it doesn't matter as long as the data will roll in and how consumer spending will come home to roost in january and february. >> i feel like people are making it a calendar issue. >> the stock will go into 24 weeks and then it gets real and then we'll face a slowing economy and the data will be bad and all bets are off. is that how you see it, too? why do

soft landing, that is what chris waller said. i do want to ask you bip nation. 20 months of rate hikes, two pauses within there. the fed's favorite inflation gauge, pce, core, we're getting on thursday, latest read for october. september came in actually cooler than expected. here is what we're expecting for october, to come in .1 of a percent month over month, i believe down 3% year-over-year. what do you expect? how is this number? does it still hold the heft all of us should be watching because it could be affecting the stock market? >> well this is an important number because a favorite of the open market committee said they like to look at this particular measure of inflation. it's not exactly what people experience as president goolsbee was saying. you mow you do have energy, bills, we have to pay. so we're all very sensitive to that but, it gives you sort of a better measure on a day-to-day basis of underlying inflation, so where is the trend is in inflation? it has been coming down f we get to 3 1/2% or lower, that would be good news on that metric. i th

i want to say that because chris waller moved the market. do people pay attention to the cleveland president speaking about financial stability? she says kind of the point that we saw yesterday. jonathan: apparently they say what we want to hear that seems to be the take away for me yesterday. lisa: that seems to be how much people are going to look at anecdotes highlighting the slow down the we heard from the walmart ceo, which has been the reason may be that we've seen the u.s. economic surprise index fall to the lowest level since last april of this year. i'm going to keep talking. jonathan: [laughter] tom: victory lap, seven-year auction, you did it again. lisa: it wasn't that good and no one cared. tom: it spiked up, the world is coming to an end, and it came back down to where it was before. why? lisa: a failed auction did not fit the narrative of the day. jonathan: i am with bramo on this. governor bowman says one thing, open to more hikes base case if we need them, and governor wallace saying we are done. we are putting more weight o

kansas city fed president jeffrey schmid and chris waller and john williams and lorie logan. on "squawk box" at 8:00 a.m. >>> let's get one more check on the futures and if the market can maintain the rally. futures have been in the red. the dow is off the lows of earlier this morning. looking like it would open 55 points lower. joining me now is malcolm ethridge. good morning, malcolm. >> good morning. >> let's take your temperature, mal malcolm. what is your "wex word" of the day? >> my word of the day is brief. it could last another two or three weeks as we get ready to gear up for the next fed meeting. as we get closer to the next december fed meeting, a lot of positive sentiment for the futures that you ran through with the open today will probably start to fizzle out. i think a lot of what has happened is catch up buying for investors looking to capture a little bit of what they missed in the first two quarters of the year with the mega cap tech trade. >> a lot of this has been sparked by the declining yields giving the markets a boost. you are looking at bonds and what

fed governor chris waller saying he is increasingly encouraged that monetary policy is well positioned economy and bring inflation down to 2%. waller had been saying in the summertime and before that one of the most hawkish members, now he's sort of neutral, a little dovish. he says monetary policy is restrictive and is contributing to the decline in inflation we've seen. he's proven couraged by the october decline in inflation as well as the jobs report, which also showed a cooling of the job market. the latest data he says shows inflation moving in the right direction, but it is gradual. don't take out the party hats just yet, because he says inflation is still too high and the slowing needs to be sustained. he pointed out there was a reversal of progress in a revision to inflation data earlier this year, so the fed cannot be sure that it's done enough now to bring inflation down. but he makes a bunch of other encouraging remarks as the economy is cooling, according to his expectations, from those strong numbers in the third quarter, indications there's been a significant modificatio

yeah, fed governor chris waller igniting a bond and stock market rally when he said the quiet part outd, and that is if inflagsz infl inflation continues to fall, the fed will lower rates. those were good enough for 15 points on the s&p 500. the market reacted first pretty well to his remarks but shot up during the q and a when he talked about rate cuts. the ten-year fell about four basis points in yield. by way of background, i asked chief fed officials last week about rate cuts. they weren't having it. that followed the lead of jay powell who said recently on november 1st -- >> well, you can see what waller's talking about here when you look at inflation versus the fed fund rate. inflation has come down and the fundslevated. the gap will continue to get tighter as inflagtion continues to fall. now, it remains to be seen if other fed officials, even the chairman, echo those words. the fed has not wanted to talk about cuts for fear it would hobble its fight against infl inflation, and that is what happened today. >> steve, the significance of waller making these remarks opposed to a di

it is ratifying with the market has been saying the last couple of days since chris waller came out and suggested maybe we will be talking about the idea of rate cuts. the jobless claims numbers, while up a little bit are not suggesting any kind of fall off a cliff in employment. we have the report a week from tomorrow and we will see what happens. we are seeing a large number of people who are getting benefits taking longer to get jobs, which is what should happen as the economy slows down. incomes slowed down. wages grew .1% after 11 months of growing .5% or so. spending slowed down a little bit. still hanging in there. all this tells you that the story the fed has been telling is actually happening at this point. sonali: if the data is consistent with a soft landing narrative what of the upcoming data can fill that narrative of course? michael: we will see what happens with the ism numbers but we may get a bounce tomorrow. they should reflect the return of workers from the uaw strikes. we may see a little bit of a pop in terms of the ism manufacturing index and new orders. whether we

as it was and the most active part of the day was just before lunch and that's when the fed's chris waller

that is why chris waller had more of an impact on markets.anything other than ongoing disinflation and lower rates ahead. jonathan: selective validation of pre-existing biases, which seems to be the way. you cherry pick what backs up your thoughts are ready. kelsey berro joins us now. good morning to you. the world is moving towards you. lower bond yields. maybe a slower economy. how are you thinking about fixed income now? kelsey: yields have moved lower. what we had is the situation where the narrative can take you much further than what is actually happening in terms of reality. we looked at the move higher in yields in september and october. getting to 5% on the 10-year. we did think that was just a bit too far in terms of a move and we would look back and view this as honestly a great buying opportunity. we've had a positive view on fixed income this year. yields moved back down and that brought us back to where we were before the september fomc meeting. what i'm focused on right now continues to be the inflation data. the inflation data

. >> one of your colleagues, fed governor chris waller yesterday, said if inflation keeps coming downe could cut rates next year. what's your opinion of that? >> it's a forecasting question. the markets and the fed have been having a forecasting battle, if i can put it this way, for 18 months. where the fed has done its best to tell a story where we think rates are going to go, based on a forecast of where the economy is going to do, and the markets have had a different view on that. so far i think -- i guess because we control rates we're still right on that. but i don't see it as there's a right or wrong answer on rates. i think there's different forecasts out there. and there's a forecast that looks like inflation comes down calmly and my skepticism is poorly placed. and in that case, sure, you react to that. on the other hand, if you believe as i believe, that inflation is going to be stubborner than i would like it to be. then i think talking about reducing rates at this point is premature. >> does your forecast for next year at this point not include rate cuts? this. >> the good

we have michael bar, loretta mester, new york fed president john williams, chris waller, as well as fed governor lisa cook. there is a treasury market conference hosted by the new york fed today. jonathan: that sounds fun. lisa: right now people would say this counts as fun. jonathan: mary daly in the financial times yesterday. tom: i saw that. jonathan: too early to declare victory. tom: she is my favorite fed president. i think she has a huge understanding of the fabric of america. what i love about bath and body works, the beard and scruff cream is the best. jonathan: that is what you go to buy? thank you for sharing with us. let's check out burberry quickly. that is down 9.4% in london. the outlook is not looking bright. 1580 in london. joining us is the lead equity analyst at landau. let's go straight to burberry. does this signal the end of the post-pandemic boom? what are we returning to? what do you think we are going back to? sophie: this is obviously the big read this morning. burberry quite disappointing. we cannot conflate the entire luxury side of things to these results. b

we get a host of fedex become including chris waller and we will also hear from fed presidents from chicago, kansas city, new york, dallas, and of course, minneapolis fed president neel kashkari. he is speaking to us and michael mckee at 7:30 a.m. i want to know how far he will push back against some of the through the as him -- enthusiasm we are seeing in the market. jonathan: are there reasons for this federal reserve to be more tolerant of easing financial conditions? given unemployment is shifting a little bit higher, wage growth a little more subdued. that will be the question a little bit later. lisa: surgical cuts. the surgical sales, 1:00 p.m., u.s. treasuries sending $40 billion of three-year notes at a time. the treasury department will beat front loading a lot of these sales. we had three straight, very bad auctions in the recent slate of auctions, one of the first times that has happened since 2011. do we see something different this week? and today is election day, so if your kids are in public school, they are not in school today. what i am personally interested in is what is

austin goolsby and chris waller speaking at separate event. later we hear from michelle bowman and goolsby again. tom: auction update? lisa: at 1:00 the u.s. treasury $1 billion verdict of seven-year notes. it was partly because the auctions came out pretty well. tom: -18% on housing which is a stunning number. it leaps past 2008. the 30 year mortgage has cratered to 7.81%. that explains a little. jonathan: jonathan: what was the last time you read a story about sam altman and openai? lisa: it fell off the radar. jonathan: thank goodness. we have not got a price target yet from you for year end next year. i know you will be putting that out. one thing you're looking for is this rally to continue. what is interesting about your call is this is not a rate cut call. you are not looking for rate cuts until next year. what is this bullish view based on? john: it is based on a lot of things. thanks for having me on the show. the big story is it is technology is changing the way we live. we all know that but we get jaded about it. the whole concept o