christian schulz, citigroup director of european economics, is with us. just asked who has the leverage, because i'm not convinced that they are really taken by the negotiations with prime minister cameron and the rest of europe. it is not much for renegotiation at all, is it? christian: i think the reform demands that the u.k. had to the .u were already quite modest the results are not more striking than the demands originally were. given that we have some next week, it is unlikely there's going to be a massive breakthrough in terms of changing the eu. i don't think this is going to the a major argument for the pro-eu side of the referendum which could happen this year. it is more, this is out of the way now. now everybody can say what they want. cameron could start campaigning in favor of staying in the eu. he's been successful in recent years. we've seen that in the elections. jon: do you think he will be successful this time around? aristian: we still only see 20% to 30% chance of brexit. that may have went up recently. it is still not our base case.