some in the markets expected christine lagarde would say early in q3, and she didn't say that. it is in q3 almost for sure, but leaving the precise month, you know, to the data that would come in in the coming weeks and the coming months, so that was a slight dovish surprise, but overall, it is basically a continuation of a process of i would call it prudent normalization. it is true the word normalization is hard to explain. it is basically the phasing out of all the pandemic exceptional measures, not commented much in the markets on, but it is important. tightening. the fed is ending the pandemic emergency purchase program. and so there is a process of what they call normalization, first from the pandemic, and then you get the russian invasion that creates a new issue in the hole normalization process, so the ecb is going to, between the inflation growth risks. kriti: you hinted at this earlier. we talk about not even just today but for the last couple of days whether euro-dollar parity on the horizon is a cause to worry for the ecb or did they think we are perhaps far-off fr

i believe we are going to christine lagarde in frankfurt. re is madame lagarde. >> largely owing to pandemic related restrictions. several factors point to a slow growth also in the period of hedge. the war is already weighing on the confidence of businesses and consumers including through the uncertainty that it brings. with energy and commodity prices rising sharply, households are facing a higher cost of living and firms are confronted with higher production costs. the war has created new bottlenecks, while a new set of pandemic measures in asia is contributing to supply chain difficulties. some sectors face growing difficulties enforcing their inputs which is disrupting production. however, there are also offsetting factors underpinning the ongoing recovery, such as compensatory fiscal measures and the possibility for households to draw on savings that they accumulated during the pandemic. moreover, the reopening of those sectors most affected by the pandemic, and a strong labor market, with more people in jobs, will continue to support i

kriti: that was christine lagarde and jerome powell.e are going to bring you that conference as we learn more but for now, michael mckee is joining me. we heard comments about what jerome powell in particular said , that he supports moving more quickly and frontloading those hikes at a time the market is pricing in a three 50 basis point move. >> he did not endorse the move. he all but said they are going to do 50, then see what happens. but he did not push back against the idea either. i think the fed at this point is willing to let them go there. the markets will price in, and that may be -- that may have a slowing effect and they can take a look around once they get there. kriti: another thing that stood out is what president lagarde said. she said the european recovery stalled to a great degree. i do not think that comes a surprise, as the war in ukraine has more seriously hit europe and the u.s. i am wondering how long they can prolong that until they get hit hard. >> the longer the war goes, the worse it gets. particularly if they

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christine lagarde forward -- christine lagarde came out and poured more cold water today. praet joins us next, former chief ecb economist, for his take. this is bloomberg. ♪ at xfinity, we live and work in the same neighborhood as you. we're always working to keep you connected to what you love. and now, we're working to bring you the next generation of wifi. it's ultra-fast. faster than a gig. supersonic wifi. only from xfinity. it can power hundreds of devices with three times the bandwidth. so your growing wifi needs will be met. supersonic wifi only from us... xfinity. guy: wrapping up a short week. we have an interesting thursday to factor in. stocks are higher broadly. the action in fixed income and foreign-exchange, the euro trading 1.07 against the dollar. the countdown to the closed starts now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets: european close with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: counting you down to the close, this is the price action. stocks are a bid in europe. doesn't feel like a big conviction story in equities. the stories and fore

how does christine lagarde tread that line today? you look at the macro picture, we are at the stage were growth projections for europe have been consistently cut. when you look at the inflation picture that continues to jump in europe, yesterday, you have that confirmation, now and double-digit inflation. a lot of this makes the ecb look behind the curve. the other big issue is, going forward, this is a medium-term outlook that is incredibly cloudy for the central bank. if you're a central bank, if you want to take the right monetary policy decisions, you have to be able to track and measure risks. a lot of this from the war in ukraine, the impact of the sanctions, the potential energy embargo that would have further ramifications on the inflation picture in europe. at the same time, all of this happening at a time when we know there is a growing debate, particularly in this country, germany, that you know very well cares a lot about inflation that the ecb is not being aggressive enough when it comes to inflation. all of this also h

>> he was speaking at an imf event along with christine lagarde the head of the ecb and other monetary officials. this was not a long speech. it was basically one long paragraph that signaled he is on board with the basis points. what's listen. >> it is appropriate in my view to move more quickly and i think there is something in the idea of front end loading whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate. that points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table. we make these decisions at the meeting and we will make them meeting by meeting, but i think 50 basis points will be on the table for the may meeting. >> a lot of people are saying this is all but a done deal. we shouldn't be too surprised, because other fed officials saying it could be appropriate. even saying they are on board. the chair of the st. louis fed said more and more we should do it or they are hoping that they will do it. another issue is he talked about frontloading rate hikes, how that could be a good deal. how may times have we heard larry summers on bloomberg for months now saying the slower the fe

coming up, we will hear from christine lagarde about a very european style of inflation.we have reaction next with our guest right here on "daybreak: europe." ♪ >> i believe that we share the same resolve, which is to tame inflation, which is to use all of the tools we have to do so. but we are facing a different beast. we have to use the tools and the sequence, which is appropriate depending on the sources of inflation. if i raise interest rates today, it will not bring the price of energy down. manus: christine lagarde on the european style of inflation, the nuances of the difference between her inflation and the u.s. i want to give you a snapshot of risk, you are seeing a real drop in commodities, major moves on the yuan. i told you it was about yields, yuan and yen, but if you look at the global map, you begin to understand the scale of moves. three standard moves on aluminum, copper down by 1.5%. focus in on the fx band and you see the yuan moving aggressively lower and the dollar higher. likewise on the aussie rates, a lot of it to do with beijing residents concerne

christine lagarde said in february and march that the preponderance of inflation in europe was energyven. yet we are getting numbers this morning that seems to belie that view. i don't think there is a dilemma here. the path is clear. they should be raising rates, moving toward normalization of the balance sheet. i think the market right now is pricing in three interest rate hikes from the ecb. at the very least, that is the right magnitude that we will see come out. i don't think there is a dilemma here, i think the path is pretty clear. lisa: if the ecb raises rates three times this year, does that make the euro stronger or weaker against the dollar at a time when that will slow growth when it is already slowing? thierry: economists like to say, all else equal. especially when you consider inflation in the u.s. might be topping out in the next few months, especially when you consider that the sanctions on russian energy are probably going to drive european inflation higher, european expectations higher, drive the sentiment at the ecb to be more hawkish relative to the rhetoric comin

remember, christine lagarde has covid. how will that change the trajectory? they say it will not but she has a difficult job to do. the german 10-year selling off again. euro-dollar, we came into this morning with a positive dollar story coming out of the fed minutes. the ecb accounts seem to be turning things around, trading back north of 1.09. >> you mentioned that ecb president christine lagarde has covid. news coming through that nancy pelosi has tested positive for covid as well. she was supposed to travel to asia this weekend visit taiwan. it would have been the first, house speaker visited taiwan in 25 years, but a positive kobe case calls into question whether that will happen. another headline crossing out of washington. the ecb has revoked -- the senate revoking special trade status for russia. a down day in the u.s. as well. essentially flat on the nasdaq 100 but the bond market is where you want to focus, not even nominal yields either but the real yields we are watching, the tin europe four basis points, what does that mean for the equity markets

the flexure one being what we will hear from christine lagarde and jay powell. 8:30 a.m. time, a read on the u.s. labor market, jobless claims, talking about a fully employed america or are we? how much do we continue to talk about that at a time where the participation rate has not gone back to where it was. does the nature of the conversation change if jobless claims go ever lower given the fact so many people are on the sidelines and we have not climbed back to pre-pandemic participation rates. 9:45 we hear from president biden giving an update on the latest in russia and ukraine. i'm particularly interested today because russia is claiming they have taken over and -- taken over mariupol, the key land bridge between crimea and russia. how much does this change the nature of the conversation and frankly what the allies are willing to do in terms of what their supplying ukraine and what kind of redlines and sanctions, further sanctions they can impose. 12:50 p.m., this is what i'm watching, chair powell and christine lagarde at an imf seminar. let's take a look. two-year

who do you think is going to be more interesting to listen to, fed chair jay powell or christine lagarde of the ecb? jonathan: based on news conferences, chairman powell. how this goes, i don't know. it is going to be interesting to see if president lagarde pushes back against her vice president forget that is going to be interesting. tom: to lisa's comment on labor per dissipation, underplayed yesterday was the jp morgan oil energy outlook, which was a primal scream on building oil demand. that is may be the most optimistic thing i have seen all week. jonathan: and where the consumer stands with oil prices. wells fargo say this, from chris harvey leading the equity coverage. despite what consumers are saying about inflation, they are still spending bank earning calls, indicating the consumer remains very active. let's get the view from citi with david bailin. just how supportive is this consumer of this equity market? how strong is the american consumer right now? david: the american consumer is actually weakening relative to what they were just a few months ago. when we take a look at

tom: bruce kasman, and christine lagarde out of the ecb. one of the busiest days in the history of bloomberg surveillance. we have bank earnings out and we will cover all of that for you. we have the ecb as well and very important lagarde press conference but far more important like, our view of international economics with the imf during a war in ukraine. markets are fairly quiet but the 10 year yield is 2.70%. from washington, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i am ritika gupta. president biden is sending in heavy weapons to ukraine. the president authorized $800 million in new firepower for the ukrainians including artillery, armored personnel carriers, and helicopters. the president announced that a package after a phone call with the ukrainian president. the european central bank is likely to prioritize the fight against inflation as a risk to the economy caused by the war in ukraine. the bank is said to maintain withdraw of stimulus when it ramps up a meeting in frankfurt ahead of ger

and chair powell and the ecb president christine lagarde will be speaking on thursday. with us, ahead of the ecb meeting is brian, michael and subadra. how much pressure is the ecb under? do think the market has gotten ahead of itself? michael: you can see that they are under pressure in some of the things they have said, bailing out spreads if they widen, and the inflation kind of in their backyard, but then the energy prices and pipelines in geopolitical risks. so at the that the market has held itself with the ecb, although the pendulum has swung back toward fighting inflation and not letting it get out of control. i think it is harder for the ecb to get this one right. the fed has a difficult job and the ecb's might be that much harder. lisa: do not want to miss my favorite part of this show, the rapidfire around. we will start with three questions and we need three quick answers. will the terminal fed rate for closer to 2% or closer to 4% this cycle? subadra: 2%. michael: 2%. brian: 2%. lisa: wow, what is a better value, investment-grade or high-yield corporate bon

i'm be interviewing janet yellen and the ecb president christine lagarde together a rare opportunity for an exclusive opportunity with two of the most important policy leaders in the world 11:00 a.m. eastern on cnbc after the break, the netflix nightmare continues. shares taking another leg lower after bill ackman said he sold off his stake at a big loss. we'll talk to kevin mayer who last month tweeted, mark my words. netflix will have ads in the next two years his take on the strategy piv sxt the market reaction next on "closing bell. i am here because they revolutionized immunotherapy. i am here because they saw how cancer adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here.... because of dana-farber. what we do here changes lives everywhere. i am here. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ with a bit more thought we can all do our part to keep plastic out of the ocean. hybrid work is here. it's there. it's eve

nation," margaret's guests including ukraine's prime minister, european central bank president christine lagardeelizabeth warren. and a reminder: if you can't watch us live, don't forget to set your dvr so you can watch us later. that is tonight's "cbs evening news." i'm norah o'donnell in our nation's capital. good night and have a great weeken >> judge judy: you have a common property line. >> yes, ma'am. >> judge judy: and there's been some difficulty. >> announcer: neighbors in a land war. >> judge judy: you did a survey. >> she said that my survey was wrong. she didn't agree with it. and so she went ahead and built a fence on it. >> judge judy: the fence that she built was on your property. and you forced her to take it down. >> announcer: can the judge knock down barriers to peace? >> judge judy: if this is what is occupying your time, i think that you probably both need to be on some serious medication. >> announcer: "judge judy."e abr the courtroom >> announcer: "judge judy."e abr the courtroom of judge judith sheindlin. captions paid for by cbs television distribution christine boiger i

nation," margaret's guests including ukraine's prime minister, european central bank president christine lagardeeth warren. and a reminder: if you can't watch us live, don't forget to set your dvr so you can watch us later. that is tonight's "cbs evening news." i'm norah o'donnell in our nation's capital. good night and have a great weeken >>> a tragic update as san jose police reopening a hit-and-run investigation more than a decade after the crash. >> i lost my friend. not only was she my daughter, but i lost my friend. >> covid positivity rates on the rise again, the sudden upswing in one bay area county in particular. >> and the rain has moved out, leaving behind the grim reality of a drought. >>> and later, a southern california dog finds hearst at the bottom of a 12-foot hole. the trickery rescue just pulled off by fire crews. >> right now at 7:00, and streaming on cbs news bay area. a hit-and-run victim days after the crash, and now police are relaunching their search for the driver. >> even though it's been 11 years, san jose police tell max darrow they hope to bring the family some just

what does christine lagarde do in this situation in which you are seeing really dramatic pricing powersonsumer across europe -- at the same time that is potentially posing a risk to growth? how does a central banker walk that line and what does fiscal policy have to do with that factor? jonathan: i don't know what she will do but i will two year yield has changed in germany. tom: -- central banks too slow to counter inflation and i look at the dynamic in europe and frankly it is more interesting than the fed. jonathan: german yields come in three or four basis points. coming up, 8:15 eastern time, 35 and its away, this morning is going so quickly. global sanctions had other weinmann joining us very shortly -- oliver wyman joining us very shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with newsom around the world, with the first word i am ritika gupta. leaders around the world are condemning moscow over multiple reports russian troops have committed war crimes in ukraine. russia could face more sanctions over the matter. images -- images were shown of people killed executio

foreign relations ahead of that event on thursday were we get jay powell speaking in tandem with christine lagarde. real yields and to meet this really is one of the underpinning stories of assets. real yields are almost zero for the first time going back to the heart of the pandemic in 2020. are we just waiting for that inevitability. jonathan: tk, are you doing your taxes? tom: that was mike from a helicopter pad. he says strong and weak currency. this is a really serious thing. currency pairs are one way or the other way. the canadian bonus round is both ways. the answer is the only way to say this in english is to say japanese yen is weak, not up. we are sticklers for that unless we are from london, where we quote it differently. jonathan: we have missed each other. the derating has been most severe while defensive areas have actually seen multiples expand. this has been a theme for the team at morgan stanley did big defensive shift beneath the surface of the equity market. dan, you have been right. this defensive shift. whether there is a tactical opportunity to lean the other way. what would

what do we expect the messaging to be from christine lagarde? kristine: the expectatio is that they are going to affirm that they are on this path to tightening. markets have gotten ahead of themselves when it comes to the ecb. they have moved on from focusing on the asset prices program and ramping up the rate hike expectations. what we are seeing now for the ecb complex and how markets are viewing it is where we were for the fed 15 months ago, slightly behind because the ecb is behind on policy tightening. it will be interesting if we see any pushback at all with regards to the rate hike bets and any attempt from lagarde to rein in markets and get them refocused on the purchase aspect of the policy rather than the rate hikes which are further down the road. tom: inflation clearly essential. what are you looking at in terms of how the inflation dynamics are impacting corporate balance sheets? caroline: this is where this will be important to look at the details from the commodities sector. other sectors may start to see mounting pressure. howev

the european central bank president christine lagarde isn't ruling out interest rate hikes this yearjob of managing borrowing costs across the eurozone isn't easy with some member countries in a very vulnerable place.so with inflation surging to new records in the us and uk and central banks raising rates, will the ecb be forced to act? let's talk this through with carsten brzeski — global head of macro for ing research. lovely to see you again. what do you think the cbd will do today or announce? i do you think the cbd will do today or announce?- today or announce? i don't think they _ today or announce? i don't think they will _ today or announce? i don't think they will announce i think they will announce anything, because there is very little they can do imminently to bring down inflation, inflation is driven by high energy prices and high commodity prices, also price markup after the epidemic and supplied chain issues. there is very little they can do to bring inflation down, what they can do and they announced this at the last meeting, as normalisation policies, gradually, open

jay powell and christine lagarde speak today. tom: the money markets now pricing in 325 basis point hikes from the ecb by the end of the year. we will get into that shortly. a selloff in the peripheries but also german boones as well. use all repricing in the other direction yesterday when it comes to u.s. sovereigns, you had bank of america saying maybe there is a buying opportunity but how does this hawkish ms. from the ecb flow across to the fed and the right cycle there? markets expecting 50 basis points in may and june, some even suggesting another one in july as well of 50 basis points. the ftse 100 lower by .2%, the cac 40 higher by .2% with that presidential debate and the pull suggesting president macron came out ahead after going head-to-head with marine le pen. the final vote is sunday. the ftse in italy is lower by 27 basis points, range bound on the benchmark earnings. we will pick out some of the individual members in the u.s.. tesla had is very strong earnings. futures estate with gains of .4%, u.s. yields currentl

tom: their political calculus come which christine lagarde is experienced at, is clearly different from the fed. but with the amount of times i trash on young ferro, i am in awe that you read the ecb minutes. jonathan: i read it during this program when it came out. i think there is some signal. the agnes of the prosthetic -- prospect -- the ignorance of the prospect of stagflation is to move away from ecb monetary policy. lisa: you are seeing a row correction in the german bond market and the entire european market because that is the signal they were taking. they want to project a certain confidence about the european economic trajectory. jonathan: next week it is all about earnings season. lisa, you have been atop of that. it is the forward look. the forward look for this economy. lisa: credit suisse put out a report where they say first corning quarters -- first quarter earnings they expect lower. after this rolloff from the weakness from the ukrainian conflict, how much do we get companies pushing forward to the same momentum and what does it do for the fed? tom: this is math, don'

the sterling in london with the french election, christine lagarde has a bigger challenge. jonathan: the date it in the u.k. of consumer confidence is at a new low and retail sales are softer. inflation starts to hurt the consumer and the consumer starts to feel bad and then it shapes what the consumer does. when you start to hike into weakness, the currency falls, it does not rally. tom: this is a friday where we are trying to slip into the weekend. i've got sterling under $1.29. that is a well statistic. jonathan: a one point 2% move this morning. lisa: it has accentuated the concern saying even if rates go up at the bank of england as much as people expect, it's not going to cause the currency to strengthen because we are talking about hiking into a slow down. this is really the dilemma that central angst have around the world. you heard that to some degree yesterday at the imf meeting. jonathan: we are obsessed with the front end of the yield curve and the hawkish talk. what's happening with the long and with inflation expectations? even with all this hawkish talk, brea

that will be the ecb's problem tomorrow, kriti, and we will have extensive coverage of what christine lagardesay. i think the ecb has some real challenges ahead of itself. the fed has challenges. the ecb's are even greater, i would argue. kriti: it is fascinating when we talk about historical precedents. can europe drag the rest of the world into a recession? this is the risk yellen is alluding to. guy: absolutely. the u.s. is a more insulated economy. europe, certainly a more trading economy with the rest of the world. we will focus more on what is happening with these markets. someone of a short squeeze in the treasury market ahead of the long weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: as we start the countdown to the european close, this is what the price action looks like. european stocks are down. the yen is down. coming up we have analysis ahead of the ecb tomorrow. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: wednesday, april 13. european stocks are lower. inflation, firmly in focus. the countdown to the close starts now. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets: european close with guy johnso

christine lagarde her fellow policymakers look ahead.s is bloomberg. ♪ manus: it is your daily daybreak with manus cranny in dubai and dani burger in london. tim graf is our guest. we are going into the ecb. the bund market yields are the highest since 2015. there is a fundamental repricing. we have government bonds, we have two-year paper and bobble purÉe you talk about what is overpriced and underpriced from central banks. you say the ecb is underpriced. how underpriced is the ecb? tim: they are not as underpriced as they were a few months ago but the market is underestimating further rhetoric from this week's meeting. we could have some scaling down of qe. i think we get revisions on language around asset purchases to come and the potential bringing forward of first rate hike which markets are pricing for to be fair. a lot has been put into the money market curve but there is still a consensus belief that the first realistic line will be september or october. i am more cautious on that thinking it could be as soon july insofar as the

mohamed: i don't get the phrase who christine lagarde said that war in ukraine could equal famine in francine: is there anything that governments can do? you talk about how the markets have not caught onto this idea of rationing of energy prices, or is that what we will have if this were doesn't stop soon? mohamed: yes, if the war doesn't stop soon, you are going to have high commodity prices, significant supply disruptions. what you and i will do in a world like that, we will stockpile. what you get is a lower supply and higher demand. francine: what do you get from the markets? the markets are still saying that we are fine and we will get through it. does that lead to more correction? mohamed: if you are an equity investor taking on a lot of risk, where do you go to? cash guaranteed returns, bonds, capital depreciation, where do you go? in a relative space, what you are talking about would shift us into an absolute space and that is a different proposition. francine: when we see that at some point because of the absolute space? none of this is modeled and this is not priced in anyw

remember, christine lagarde has covid. how will that change the trajectory?ill not but she has a difficult job to do. the german 10-year selling off again.

let's listen to exactly what he said at an imf panel that included christine lagarde, head of the ecb. >> it is appropriate in my view to be moving more quickly. i also think there is something in the idea of front end loading whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate, so that points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table. we make these decisions at the meeting and we will make the meeting by meeting, but i would say 50 would be on the table for the may meeting. >> i have been hearing in talking with -- and talking with my print reporter colleagues and they say this is an explicit endorsement of a 50 basis point rate hike in may just a couple weeks away from jay powell. jim bullard from the st. louis fed led the pack. chris lawler picked it up as well. other fed officials. even if they have not exactly set i'm going to vote for it, they know it is on the table. i think this kind of ties it all up. this is about frontloading rate hikes. what has larry summers been saying? what has bill dudley been saying? you've got to go pastor coming your way b -- faster, you a

christine lagarde is speaking, something you want to watch out for.et back into the earnings season where i'm fascinated to hear what meta will have to say. paypal could be fascinating as well. you referenced what was happening with visa, but we will see what paypal has to say. kailey: absolutely and u.s. gdp data, that will be messy and on the european data front we will get cpi from spain and germany and of course, yes, more earnings from tech companies with the barclays standard chartered reporting in europe and of course, also considering geopolitics, antonio guterres will be meeting with president zelenskyy after he met with putin and lavrov earlier this week, bringing us back to one of the stories we have been so closely following today, gas in europe. after two hours of us discussing it i'm still not sure if i have real clarity on what's going on. guy: yeah, i think a lot of the lawyers out there will be going through the fine print of that contract. when does it satisfy? at euros or the point at which it's converted into rubles? that could be

the fed strong powell and christine lagarde due to take part in a discussion on the economy hosted by the imf. manus: coming up, the rate debate. we hear from the san francisco fed chief about the direction of interest rates. dani: expeditious is the word of the week. we are going to get back to the conversation on the french presidential election. more analysis to come with nicholas duncan. this is bloomberg. ♪ manus: it's daybreak europe. i'm manus cranny in dubai. to switzerland next. organic revenue of 7.6%. the estimate was for 5.08%. price rises. you are looking at pricing up by 5.2%. the estimate was just under 4%. they still see a profit margin of between 17 to 17.5%. a monster beat. cost inflation continues to increase. they will raise prices to help offset inflation. you will hear a lot of that through this reporting season. let's talk about the beige book. the u.s. economy growing steadily through april. high inflation is clouding the outlook. the san francisco fed president sees interest rates being raised to neutral by the end of the year. >> next dishes march to neutral

whether christine lagarde, with all the challenges and the original theory and practice of the europeanal bank experiment. they have a massive conundrum now. how does she move forward given 7% inflation which is unspeakable to begin with and germany? -- in germany? david: it's tough all around the globe. she faces a situation not that much unlike chair powell. up until now the u.s. stood out by having higher inflation and then other countries around the globe. what central banks need to do is attempt to judge what the staying power is of inflation. if as ill remains in the base case, inflation proceeds as the economy continues to normalize, central banks are going to need to do less in terms of crushing the economy in order to bring it down. most of all what is required to run a successful monetary policy is for central banks to continually adjust to unforeseen developments and circumstances. they are just like a rocket engineer always firing the thruster rockets to get back on course. tom: is the thruster rocket to get back on course the utilization of foreign exchange? are the dynamic

eurozone cpi and consumer confidence and then on monetary policy, a jerome powell of the fed and christine lagardell speak at an imf panel. coming up, and interview with brian moynihan, bank of america chairman and ceo. he will join david westin. for myself in new york and anna in london, thank you for joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> from the world of politics -- >> they're looking at a you sanctions to cripple russia's capacity to continue to rearm itself. to the world of business -- >> we cannot have a recession around good health and it is incumbent around company like johnson & johnson to continue to innovate above current standards of care and making sure they're assessable and affordable. >> this is balance of power with david westin. david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york to out television and radio audiences, welcome to balance of power for a special edition of our program today. we welcome the chairman and chief executive officer of bank of america, mr. brian moynihan. thank you for being with us. you had your earnings monday, the stock is up on the news, you reported a

lisa: you suck christine lagarde confirm this morning that she also has been diagnosed with covid, althoughust a mild symptom attic case. how much are we going to see wholesale disruption at a time when people want none of that? people want to move on. you are seeing that be the feeling more than anything else. still annoying when your plane gets canceled, just theoretically. jonathan: theoretically. not through experience. or twice in a row. that is killer. lisa: well, i am not alone. jonathan: florida, all those getting canceled. lisa: all weekend long. tom: would you like to expand on that? lisa: first world problems. [laughter] >> i think people are overestimating the strength of the consumer. >> if the fed wants to slow demand they need to get financial conditions tighter. >> inflation will roll back. it will probably be later this year, early next year type of phenomenon. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. it is a thursday claims in 30 minutes. what we claim is optimism, way too much opti

that is the question facing christine lagarde. both could get worse as we see war in ukraine waiting on. how far away are we from peak inflation in europe? let's get more with the ubs chief strategist. if you had to place a bet on july, what would it be? >> i think the ecb is going to hike in july. i think they are focused on inflation expectations rising. they are focused on the price of goods rising. it is largely focused on energy, which is different from the u.s. the genesis of inflation is not the same across the world. in the u.s., it is distributed across goods, services, energy. in europe, it has largely been energy. food prices are rising. we are not going to see peak inflation in europe anytime soon. peak inflation in the u.s. we have probably already seen. in europe, it will be late summer before we seek peak inflation even if driven only by energy. i think the ecb does hike two times this year and three or four times next year. growth is slowing. there is no doubt the growth/inflation mix is worsening. i think markets

later this morning, christine lagarde will speak. then the bank of england governor will speak.here are some big questions about how much further the bank of england can go already given where the data is in the u.k.. lisa: given the fact that they are tightening into weakness. at the same time, it is inflation. if their job is to curtail inflation, what are they doing? how can they maintain a mandate that is to curtail inflation? jonathan: the bank of lincoln facing challenges to the rate hiking cycle. the ecb has not started and we have this big slowdown emerging in china with the lockdowns in shanghai. challenges for those two bankers this morning. how does your communicate tighter monetary policy? tom: i think this is the common ground between paul krugman and glenn hubbard is they will wait and look at the data. they are by definition experts, they can pontificate all they want. they will wait to see the data, including inflation rolling over, which maybe is a consensus presumption. jonathan: the word consensus is interesting. a month ago when the city came out with that ba

i'm fascinated to hear what christine lagarde has to say. wti is below 100 now.you have the dollar ruble trade, basically round-tripping since the invasion, a lot of people pouring cold water on that. the sense is that that is not a real market, that is a supported market by the russian authorities. you can pay your money and take a chance on the -- on this. this is what the breakdown looks like. i mentioned the health care sector. of care are the only sector in positive territory today. london, switzerland doing ok. insurers are up, beverage up. i would say down, but relative to the market they are down. the defensive end of the market is where people are running to today. still getting sold in aggregate. the real number is down, but the relative number is better. the bottom end of the market looks ugly. travel and leisure is down by more than 4% today. the luxury sector is down by 3.44%. the numbers there, really not looking pretty. relatively the top end of the market looks ok. there are some really big names doing big damage today. asml, the chipmaker is down

we heard from christine lagarde, from olaf scholz, saying that this was a victory for the european project because the victory of emmanuel macron means continued stability within europe, with and also the nato alliance, because as you know, marine le pen wanted to leave the military command of nato. there will be no such thing with emmanuel macron, who wants to increase the defense spending to 2% of gdp, which is the nato target. that means continuity and stability. france is still presiding of the eu until the end of june, so macron will continue to try to achieve more european integration, so there is clearly short-term relief among european partners because france is still considered a reliable partner. kailey: bloomberg's caroline connan, thank you. let's get more perspective on the challenges ahead. we are joined by christine the -- by christine verger, institute jacques delors vice president. christine: the victory of emmanuel macron is better than expected because the polls recently were indicating 55-45. he got less than in 2019, but still it is a good victory for him and a clear d

christine lagarde expected to start to cut back on bond purchases and raise rates as well. along with all other central banks in the western hemisphere. let's get to something that caught my eye, and that is really something that caught everyone's eye. elon musk, $43 billion cash offer to buy twitter. he wants to pay 54.20 a share. it is the 4.20 that is interesting to him into us. it is the largest investment, and he turned down a board seat at the company print twitter said it would review the proposal, and any response would be in the best interest of all twitter stockholders. maybe they met stakeholders there, because that is an even broader group of people. in any case, it is a 54% premium over the january 28 closing price, we have seen twitter trade as high as $77 over the last year and a half. elon musk has no confidence in the board, and that may not help them decide in his favor. let's talk more about bloomberg's head in san francisco. elon musk is scheduled to talk on twitter soon. if he does, we will take our viewers live to that because it is public. is he serio

here is the ecb president christine lagarde. >> the war is already laying on the confidence obusinessesonsumers,, including through the uncertainty that it brings. with energy and commodity prices rising sharply, households are facing a higher cost of living and firmsre confronted with higher produion costs. bottlenecks, while a new set of pandemic measures in asia is going to bidding to supply-chain difficulties. brian: that caution from the ecb sending the euro downward against both the dollar and sterling, as traders put any expectations for a rate hike from frankfurt on hold. the dollar is higher against the greenback. but all indices ending the day higher. the cac 40 in paris is up 0.7% at the close. . wall street closing in the red, as investors digested this week's data showing u.s. inflation at a four decade high. major investment banks including goldman sachs,, citigroup's, and morgan stanley, all reported drops. most banks are still beating analyst estimates. the dow ending the day in negative territory by 0.3%. the nasdaq closing down over 2%. finally, from a hefty bid for tw

the fed chairman jerome powell, ecb president christine lagarde, boe governor, and the ukrainian finance minister were among those who left or turned off their cameras when russian officials joined virtually. russia is on course for its first expert -- external default in more than a century. the bridge to the terms of two bonds after it paid them in rubles instead of dollars. goldman sachs and jp morgan are among the groups saying the failure happened earlier in april. russia could still avert default if it pays in dollars before the grace periods ends may 4. chinese authorities say they need more time to figure out what caused a chinese jet to plunge into a hillside last month killing all 132 passengers and crew. officials confirmed black box analyses are ongoing. the scanned details to criticism on social media in china and suggests investigators are being particularly cautious about the probe and public disclosures. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is blo

those not attuned to this, they have some form of monetary policy that has coalesced around christine lagardert of fiscal policy is support for beleaguered nations with gas and such. it is absolutely, totally different than what we see with the fed. jonathan: five straight days of your weakness. lisa: this is not good. member when a weaker currency was a good? especially with the inflationary environment. how does the ecb get ahead of this? we are not just talking about the lack of rate hikes, but the impending weakness in the region. tom: if you want to triangulate this, you have one currency pair, another currency pair, and you find a third, and that is called a triangulate. it doesn't triangulate with euro swissie. jonathan: coming up, andrew slimmon is going to weigh on this with morgan stanley investment management. it was clear, tom. lisa: trigonometry. jonathan: up on the s&p. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for up to half the price of verizon, so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this pho

the ecb, i will say this is an original meeting for christine lagarde. >> so many she has to be thinkinging what is happening with the global picture on inflation. the ecb not a new to that challenge. then you have to factor in what is going on with the war leaving the refinancing rate unchanged at zero. the deposit rate left at -50. how quickly does that close is the question people are asking themselves. how quickly do we get back to neutral, a lot of challenges. the data since the last meeting has led some credibility to the idea that we will be seeing a liftoff from here. rates will rise "sometime after the next bond buying ends." any rate increase will be gradual. asset purchases should be concluded in the third quarter. rates at the present level until inflation meets its goal, underlying inflation. data reinforces expectations that the app should and in the third quarter. adp has to end and then we can get to rate hikes. the conclusion is we should get rate hikes before years end. the market is pricing and 71 basis points, which would take us into positive territory on the deposit

monetary appeals and both the head of theal ecb, christine lagarde, and powell agreed u.s. needs to meet poormore quiy lagarde saying on the table but wouldn't bite when the sara asked if ready to raise rates in july important thing heard from chair powell, maybe you heard it, too, talking about potential for tight policy labor market tight, before talking about tightening policy, but relatively new, maybe not first time he said it, the idea of the fed going to tight policy, what does that mean? fed speak, going above the neutral rate there's the chair openly talking about the idea of not just going to the neutral rate which is this 2.25, 2.50 range but perhaps going above that and that is where we're talking about here, kelly, where the market's priced. priced at 2.66 by end of the year, that suggests the market is starting to internalize this idea of the fed actively moving to restrain the economy. >> absolutely. seeing the nasdaq down about 100 points all markets lower, but not by a huge amount. steve, thanks. steve liesman. we'll continue to monitor that event. >>> up ne

jonathan: christine lagarde, the ecb president come on cbs.e way more exposed to what is happening in china relative to the united states, and there is a slowdown building in china with the potential of lockdown spreading from shanghai to beijing. that shakes things up in the chinese equity market, shakes things up stateside. we are 0.8% lower on the s&p, down by 0.9% on the s&p 500. this month has been absolute brutal for the nasdaq 100. big story in the premarket is twitter, up more than 5% in the premarket at $51.70. did trade at $52 very briefly. came close to that level, then backed away. tesla also bit lower off the back of some of this, down by more than 3% as we report today that we could reach a deal as soon today. tom: i would suggest that that markdown from $54 down to $52 or just under is about normal. there's always a little bit of squishing us there. jonathan: came very close to $52. closing this one up is going to be very interesting. i am fascinated to see if he can close a deal and if -- and what he is going to do with it. tom

rates and inflation on on "the exchange" tomorrow there's a panel tomorrow with jay powell and christine lagarde. it's beginning at 1:00 p.m. eastern time >>> while new home construction remains strong, sales of the existing home inventory keep slowing. it doesn't help that home prices are high and mortgage rates are now soaring. we have the latest numbers ahead. plus brace yourselves. another round of results are coming after the bell today. and we have a preview in earnings exchange. the action, the story, and the trades for tesla united airlines, and alcoa that's next on "the exchange". exploring the heart of historic europe with viking, you'll get closer to iconic landmarks, to local life and legendary treasures as you sail onboard our patented, award-winning viking longships. you'll enjoy many extras, including wi-fi, cultural enrichment from ship to shore and engaging excursions. viking - voted number one river cruise line by condé nast readers. learn more at viking.com. >>> welcome back to "the exchange." here's your cnbc news update at this hour. in the besieged city of mariupol a ukrain

the panelists include the head of the imf, ecb president christine lagarde and more you can watch itaming on cnbc.com, youtube, facebook. doesn't get much better than that losses picking up steam. dow down about 93 points or so so heading back toward the lows. the s&p down about .25%. looks worse because we had been gaining up until about 3:00. energy and financials are strong, but health care staples, utilities weak industrials and communication services dipping into the red. nasdaq down .4%. >> up next, a look at which companies could be big winners and the losers as well off the back of rising interest rates. ten-year yield continues to move up 2.85%. we hit past 2.% da90toy. we'll be right back. (vo) while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a children's hospital — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you give back. so you can live your life. that's life well planned. [sound of helicopter blades] ugh... they found me. ♪ ♪ nice suits, you guys blend right in. the world nee

jerome powell, christine lagarde, andrew bailey, and the ukrainian finance minister also among those who left or turned off their cameras when russian officials joined virtually. russia is on course for its first external default in more than a century. the country was judged to have breached the term of two bonds by derivatives panel afterpay did in rubles instead of dollars. goldman set -- after it paid them in rubles instead of dollars. they could still avert a default if they pay in dollars before may 4. the philippines will await the actions of major central banks before setting a course for rate rises as the central bank says uncertainty is cloud in the outlook for inflation and growth. the finance secretary carlos dominguez spoke exclusively to bloomberg about whether the bsp can comfortably keep its key rate on hold for the first half. >> we will have to watch exactly what other countries do, particularly the u.s. we don't want to be behind the eight all here -- eight bal lhere, because if the u.s. raises rates, people in the philippines will of course want to follow those ra

meeting and what everyone must talk about going into the minutes is that at the last meeting, christine lagardeas tipping towards yes, a more hawkish you than people expected. there could be rate hikes this year etc. and what we are seeing from the minute is that the hawks are much more worried about the inflation pressures and you can see seven a half percent year-over-year, nearly four times the 2% target. they think that inflation increase is spreading out, they are getting entrenched, they have to move. ukraine were creating uncertainty. hawks think we can get a hike by june or they are pushing for that. some think that it will be in september, but that the ecb shares might start with a 50 basis point hike to get quickly from -50 basis points to zero. shery: kathleen hays are global economics and policy editor. nato and europe officials are warning the war in ukraine may last for weeks or even years. western nations continue to step up sanctions on moscow, with the eu agreeing to ban coal imports from russia. let's bring in our political news director jodi schneider. what are the implicatio

stagnation that they've been dealing with for years and they're not going to do what jay powell or christine lagardebecause they're not dealing with those kind of inflationary environments. it's not a depressed economy it's compared to everybody else, they're not experiencing the boon. >> demographic >> demographics are terrible aging population they're going to push for a stronger yen -- >> why should -- do you think our president and his team are well aware of what's going on in terms of being able to send things over here like the old days in the late -- >> the automakers are going to complain that who faces some of the stiffer competition. >> i agree with that and they should complain they've given south korea a free pass this yen decline is something that you taught me, you got to watch it we cannot just asterisk that country. >> no. and it's -- eventually it's going to be painful because you never want to see these things moving too fast and too far. >> how about the ruble saving people >> they're intervening, capital controls -- >> don't you think it's amazing -- i didn't mean to interrupt. a