the message from christine lagarde sounds downbeat when it comes to the economy. e data are downbeat when it comes to the economy. are these two therefore on the same page? honestly, lagarde tried to talk the talk today but everybody pretty much heard the fact we are going to be seeing a pause and maybe the next move is cuts. scarlet mongering, directive matter -- microstrategy for global data at ts lumbar joining us now. schuyler, what do you think? that was my take, lagarde did not want to talk about peak rates or a pause because you saw pricing in cuts. but that is the signal we got. >> exactly. i think we got the dovish turn i had of the july meeting. for a while, the european economy has been on performing, economic surprise industries have been negative -- indices have been negative and it is an environment of stagnation and the ecb is finally recognizing that. that forced the rhetoric to change in july and i think the thought process this month was either we hike now or maybe we lose the opportunity to do a final hike in november because the data deteriorate

here's the ecb chief, christine lagarde. >> for online participants, if you ask a question, please turnones. with that, i handed over to present lagarde -- hand it over to president lagarde. pres. lagarde: thank you. welcome after the summer break that i hope you enjoyed. the vice president and i welcome you to our press conference. inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long. we are determined to ensure that inflation returns to our 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. in order to reinforce progress towards our targets, the governing council today decided to raise the three key ecb interest rates by 25 basis points. the rate increase today reflects our assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data. the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. the september ecb staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area c average inflation at five -- 5.6 percent in 2023, 3.2% in 2024, and 2.1% in 2025. this is an upward revision for 2023 and 2024 and a downward revisi

although christine lagarde refuses to say it is definitely enough. >> both matter.he level is restrictive and duration. it is not to say because we can't say that now that we are at peak. >>> thousands of u.s. auto worker goes on strike hitting production at gm, ford and stellantis as the uaw union president warns the group will not buckle. >>> good morning. welcome to "street signs." there is a lot of green on the board for the final trading day of the week. positive numbers for the stock market. we he finally got the a.r.m. listing. we saw all of the wall street majors end in the day in the green. in asia overnight, we had positive numbers with retail sales in china growing. industrial production surpassing expectations. hand over from asia pacific is positive for europe. this is the stoxx 600. we are up .80%. this comes after positive session yesterday with the stoxx 600 ending 1% higher which is in reaction to the ecb and the fact they raised interest rates by 25 basis points. they seemed to hint they were at the end of the hiking cycle. that is the market inter

>> christine lagarde was adamant about saying that this is not necessarily last hike. if you look at the decision one could say the hawks won the decision but the doves won the markets. orchids are saying this is probably the last hike -- markets are saying this is probably the last hike. >> that is going to be something we talk a lot about. the recessionary story. will germany tilt the rest of europe to that decline? >> there was a big concerned about whether this would be one hike to many. >> it is too early to say if this is one hike too many. ecb cut its growth forecast for the next -- this year and the next two years considerably. that means we are in a stagflation situation. policymakers last month were concerned about that. and at the same time they did also raise the inflation forecast for this year and for next year. the classic situation where we have strong inflation readings and at the same time little or no growth is something the ecb has to be worried about. that also leads markets to believe this will be the last one. but christine lagarde did not want t

christine lagarde very clear talking about the idea. she is not talking cuts just yet. important the cpi data is going to be. nice to see you. cpi ended the week. christine lagarde making it very clear the rates are going to stay up and stay there for a while. what is the cpi going to tell us about whether or not she is going to be able to achieve that? the bastion: ultimately, the message of hire for longer is going to have to be validated by the data. the cpi is the data investors will look at for the area given the single mandate of the ecb. we don't expect a particular large surprise either way. we think the inflation process is in place for the coming months. for this one in particular, we don't expect the largest surprise. more to come in terms of ecb news. kailey: for how long do you think the ecb is going to be able to keep rates high? this is where a recession forecast i would think comes into play unless you think the ecb is going to be willing to tolerate that because of the inflation fight. sebastian: our view is that rates will remain high until at least th

we have spotted christine lagarde on her way in. i believe that 7:15. she's already hard at work.is a two day deliberation. when it comes to the meeting, what is clear as we have seen market sentiment almost flipping on a weekly basis. but obviously there has been a very palpable change in tone when it comes to money markets and what they price in. they now see a rate hike from the european central bank. a lot of that precipitated by that report from reuters which also bloomberg was able to confirm about the print when it comes to cpi potentially above 3% next year. that was seen as a determining factor when it comes to the strength of the transmission policy of the european central bank above 3% next year that would still give a platform to the hawks that believe there is still a rate hike warranted. this is a tough call for the european central bank. whatever happens. this is a tough communications exercise from the head of the european central bank. we are ending now at a point at which whether you believe they hold are they hike today, this is a central bank facing a bleak eco

alix: how would christine lagarde tomorrow or the general ecb be able to signal a hawkish pause, take a break but still have a higher inflation forecast? what with the signal need to look like? zoe: probably something like we are willing to hike rates again if needed and we are data dependent, something like that. even if they hike tomorrow, we are expecting language along those lines, simply for the reason that as soon as they stop hiking, the markets say winter they going to cut? right now, economists think they will cut in march. markets think july. just to keep those expectations at bay, they will be hawkish in saying we are willing to do more in the reason is maybe not necessarily that they will but just that they will be happy to be on that table mountaintop for quite a while. alix: that was a new pill. that was guy johnson. he was dealing the matterhorn. thanks a lot. i give you credit, like, every day now, guys. you like it? guy: the bank of england has taken credit for it. we did it one month before few decided to do it. everyone is claiming it. they all see it as there's. al

>> since we are on the verge of reducing inflation we are on the right track, i don't see christine lagardeay we need to go further. 4% as a high level of interest rates. it might have some impact on the level of activity. we are on the right track to reduce inflation which must be our common goal. enough is enough. maria:. that was very clear. let's move onto the other big topic. this was a massive decision we saw reflected in the market. there is no a probe that will start into chinese electric vehicles ahead of the european commission who says they flooded the market with cheap subsidies. this was a political victory for your country who wanted this included. what will you get out of it? >> we did not push anything, we wanted to have a fair condition between china and the eu. china is a key partner for the eu but the partnership between her two continents must be based on the same rules and must be based on a certain level. if there is any doubt there is a competitive field between china and the you, it's up to the commission to launch an investigation. this investigation is most welcome

jonathan: christine lagarde said she's ready to go and that's new?t to the press. she was asked if you prepared -- if you were prepared for the job and she said yes. the interviewer said explain you think you are prepared. she said there is nothing to prepare for because joe biden is not going anywhere. it did take people by surprise have weekly she said yes and stopped lisa: at this point, people are looking at the polls in the concern about these issues and this rambling not to mention what we are seeing on both sides of the aisle and other people who have been in service for a long time and it raises questions about their health. at what point do we start to hear a sense of who could potentially run instead of president biden if this starts to get critical mass? annmarie: at the moment, the democrats are rallying around biden even though there are whispers behind closed doors about his age. he will be 83 next november. no one is doubting he will run at this moment. you see the push from the campaign and they are releasing millions of dollars in ad

jonathan: a big decision for christine lagarde. going into last week, the data it needs to tell them why they need to hike. but they failed to do that based on every piece of data last week. the -- our fed is on the sidelines unless you get a blowout labor number. tom: all of this is the transatlantic disparity there and it for into a stock market that's resilient. this is like new year's. in america the day after labor day is just like january 3. jonathan: equity futures on the s&p 500 are just slightly negative down by 0.2% and yields are higher by four basis points on the 10 year. yields aggressively lower on the front end through the last week. it's on the back of economic data in the united states. lisa: it's amazing to see 20 basis points plunging on the heels of some of that. this week will be quiet but there are interesting things coming up. wednesday at 10 a.m., ism services in the u.s. for the month of august. i'm curious to see whether we see a rollover at all above the 50 mark which is above recession even as we seek a

coming up, christine lagarde spoke in london and focus on the communication challenges.e any clues as to whether the ecb will hike or pause at their next meeting. more with anna, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ he hailing a ride to the concert hall? no. he's making sure his portfolio and retirement plans work in harmony. they want to adopt a child and build a new home. so they're talking numbers with their merrill adviser. she's not researching her next role. she's learning how to handle market ups and downs without the drama. personalized advice so impressive your money never stops working for you with merrill. a bank of america company. explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™. >> welcome back to bloomberg markets. the ecb president christine lagarde gave no insight on what the next move of evening september 14. she spoke in london and focus on challenges in communicating during uncertain times. and on jointly now. someone who has no problem with communicatio

said that the interest rate increase was done with the aim of controlling inflation , however, christine lagardencreased this version again in a day and a month. he did not deny the future . last year, the european central bank increased the interest rate by 10 times to 14%.

the forward-looking part in terms of the language that christine lagarde may use if the euro is going get into any trouble, that is where it might come in. if, for example, christine lagarde thinks she's been pushed into a corner, she goes ahead with a hike but then uses relatively dovish language for the forward-looking part, the euro might spike up and come all the way back down again, as she speaks during the press conference. there's a lot of possibilities here as to the way it plays out, but as of right now, people are taking it as a reason to say that yes, the hike is coming and it is not fully priced into the market which means a euro can improve. kriti: mark cranfield, bullish on the euro. let me pushback on that. the idea that if you are actually talking about recession led by germany right now, manufacturing numbers are expected to be weaker today in today's economic data, wouldn't a rate hike or excitations of it just mean way more pressure on the continent? is that perhaps why we are seeing right now choppy action in the euro and weakness in the euro? mark, your thoughts?

nothing to do with christine lagarde. we have a lot to do there.

inflation on the rise the interest rate is aimed at curbing inflation, however, christine lagarde did not rule out another increase in the interest rate in the coming days. in the past year , the european central bank increased the interest rate by 10 times to 4%. experts believe that the increase in energy prices is the cause of inflation. china started its official political relations with the taliban and the new chinese ambassador sheng should hand over his credentials in a meeting with the taliban prime minister because it is a country that recognizes the taliban because it has already signed the final agreement over the phone and made investments. terrorists have done this in this country so far they attacked chinese delegations in afghanistan several times. during the visit of the venezuelan president to china, when the cooperation agreement was signed between the two countries, his mother described this trip as historic and said that it was a new era in the forgotten friendship of the president. china has improved the level of relations between the two countries due to a strate

the euro area and the increase in interest rates has been done in order to control inflation, christine lagarde, however , did not rule out the increase in interest rates again in the coming days and months. the percentage has increased the price energy is considered to be the cause of inflation growth, the french company's lung cancer vaccine tests have had relatively good results , according to the company's announcement, the laboratory stage of this vaccine was carried out in the monitor of patients who were in the advanced stage of lung cancer . the vaccine has a 41% lower mortality rate compared to chemotherapy. in immunotherapy, the patient's immune system is strengthened in order to easily fight cancer . last year, by publishing material on cyberspace, he claimed that the taliban had established order in afghanistan and the people of this country submitted to the government of this group . cooperate in response to this issue, four members of the british defense committee launched a plan of scientific incompetence, and finally the head of the german defense committee of england did more a

we will also hear from central leaders such as jay powell and christine lagarde.pce. if the fed preferred measure of inflation. you are expected to see core pce drop as headline continues to heat up. that mirrors what we saw in cpi expected see the same thing with pce. the diversions we see between headline and core pce maybe it will row if we continue to see energy prices continue to climb. what that means for the federal reserve, we will see. from new york, that does it for us. this was bloomberg real yield and this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? have we piqued your inte

euro zone, said that the interest rate would be increased in order to curb inflation. made from christine lagarde, however, did not rule out raising the interest rate again in the coming days and months. in the past year, the european central bank has increased the interest rate by 10 percent to 4 percent . the lung cancer treatment vaccine has had good sexual results, according to the company's announcement, the laboratory stage of this vaccine treatment was carried out for patients who were in the advanced stage of lung cancer. chemotherapy was less in immunotherapy, the patient's immune system is strengthened in order to easily fight cancer, and two news about the resignation of the world cooperation and the acceptance of the taliban, the work of the head of the defense committee of the british parliament was used . established and the people of this country submit to the government of this group, the head of the defense committee of the british parliament also asked the government of this country to reopen the british embassy in kabul and cooperate with the taliban. they started scientific fl

christine lagarde was at pains yesterday so talk about inflation but the real story is growth. maria: there was a lot of commentary about this. it shows you how palpable how much tension there has been around the hiking cycle. she was not definitive that this was the last type. but also repeated that we have to focus on duration, strength and market is already anticipating because and she said we have not yet even pronounce the word cuts. she in -- she may not want to signal their dawn but does not want to start the word cuts. alix: the market believes they're not talking about it. how long are they going to go? >> i think the definitive level of euros is a point down from the dollar in the euro economy. you will have interest rates anticipating the dollar. it's really the euro versus dollar were focusing on here. he could get down to parity. even the ecb's own growth forecast won't get anywhere near that. i expect there will be a recession in the euro, and it will take somewhere into next year which will take the possibility of the plateau. the expectations of a cut in june of

haidi: ecb president christine lagarde on the potential for global growth after the central bank delivered 10th rate hike our next guest says the hawkish ecb will likely cause a global recession this year. join us now is jay hatfield from infrastructure capital management. great to have you with us. can they avoid this hawkishness when we have such solid data? >> we believe the data will continue to show cooling and also that the fed misinterprets the data because of the lag shelter component of inflation. inflation is purposely lacked -- lagged. so if they properly interpreted the data, they would realize inflation is tame. now we've their preferred measure, the labor market is cooling. the ecb pause and it will be a pause is critical because we think europe is now heading into a deep recession, particularly germany. horrible data coming out of germany and italy. haidi: the consensus seems to be the fed will not move next week. are you expecting the fed to realize this lag by november and december? will they keep the pause? >> yes. the next meeting is bullish because you get the dot plot

christine lagarde are talking about how this is needed to cool consumer prices.ntries that use the euro and the deposit rate has been lifted from 3.7 5% up to 4% which is as i mentioned an all—time high. markets were expecting the move to be the last, though, and what they think will happen now is that we will see a lengthy pause followed by rate cuts in the second half of the year. a lot to talk about when it comes to these moves by the ecb and we will have more on this in the business in 15 minutes. the kremlin has confirmed that vladimir putin has accepted the invitation to visit pyongyang. the north korean leader kimjohn ewan invited vladimir putin during the meeting earlier this week —— kimjong—un. vladimir putin promised to help north korea with its space programme. 0ther promised to help north korea with its space programme. other countries have voiced concerns about closer military ties between the countries which are both the subject of global sanctions. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. now to some of the other stories we are closely

. >> we will bring you the latest on the ecb decision and president christine lagarde's press conferenceater today. join me at 14:10 cet. we have asset management ceo from jpmorgan chase joining us. are you in the hawkish pause today? >> after the leak that happened yesterday, i feel it will be more the dovish hike. i feel that is where the ecb is going. they weren't happy with the pricing on monday. it does feel they want to hike. you look at the economic data and it smells of a possibility of policy mistakes. i think they want to be clearer around the fact we are seeing weakness. >> it is extraordinary that the news report came out. if they end up hiking, it would be a surprising turn of events. before the article came out, the market was leaning too a hike. now the market re-priced on the back of the article. that is key. what does that tell you about the state of consensus building within the ecb and the fact they felt they had to take it to the hire last second. what could be quite an informative leak. >> we had a number of hawkish members of the ecb coming out saying there was stil

that's the challenge we see addressed tomorrow by christine lagarde.orward to the outlook. today, novo nordisk down. the idea is to generate buzz, with tech stocks drifting off a bit. it's had a great run. maybe that's a reflection of what we see today. coming up on the european close, what happens next? are we seeing an acceleration, bree inflation? ♪ more electrolytes. zero sugar. you feel the difference when you get it right. stay salty. so, you've got the power of xfinity at home. now take it outside with xfinity mobile. like speed? it's the fastest mobile service around. with the best price for two lines of unlimited. only $30 bucks a line per month. that's hundreds in savings a year when you wave bye to the other guys. all on the most reliable 5g network nationwide. you really shouldn't walk out the front door without it. (jennifer)itch today at the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight o

in europe, christine lagarde in news conference yesterday was very sluggish.1.0 seven, positive by 07, positive by 0.1%. the euro is just a touch stronger. at the moment, we would be looking at 1.06. on my screen, i still have 1.0656. tom: when you round it up. that is the difference between the four digits. jonathan: just about positive on the session but down on the week intently for a ninth consecutive week. the move in crude is where the story is at. wti and brent crude. wti at $90.65. brent crude at mu highs at $94 a barrel -- at new highs at $94 a barrel. lisa a: this will feed into oil but not enough for growth. this is why europe is -- jonathan: a very toxic brew. the united auto workers of starting an unprecedented strike. the president saying the strategy will keep companies guessing and will give our national negotiators ask them leverage and flexibility in bargaining and, if we need to go all out, we will. everything is on the table. even said to address the strike later today. they are not sure what they will say about this yet. tom: i am wonderin

quite well, optimistic, but then suddenly the data turned and that is presenting a conundrum for christine lagarde and crew, so where do we go from here there? >> again, inflation is not under control in europe either and the ecb just raised 25 basis points. i am european and we come from the northern part of europe in denmark, and really europe is the biggest economic zone in the world and of course it is set up by many different countries and is very terrible war in ukraine we have also seen europeans, much closer and start making some pretty bold moves into energy, military, nato, and so forth and i think maybe europe is underrated. we saw some good developments in the equity marks of europe and there are lots of good things. it is too slow and bureaucratic, but sometimes crises are changing that thing so i think europe is hopefully here to stay and also it is the biggest economic zone in the world and even though it is fractured it is moving forward but i also hope we can have more aligned approaches to some of the big questions in europe. rishaad: always a pleasure having you on the program.

but worrisome for the eurozone which increased interest rates with the president of the ecb christine lagarde saying that the hike in interest rates will continue to be the case as they fight off inflation further. we also have unemployment numbers for the second quarter. 0.2% quarter on quarter. 1.3% up year on year then for the employment figure as well in the eurozone. across the market, a little bit of a mixed board. generally higher. ftse 100 is up .10%. cac 40 is up .40%. all of the markets taking that data in, frank. >> arabile, thank you very much. great to see you. >>> turning attention back to the u.s. the latest beige book revealing the majob market slowed in july and august and many businesses expect wage increases to ease and consumers will remain strong. the report coming two weeks before the next policy meeting. let's bring in skyler for the latest. thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> the beige book is the primary objective of 90% chance of a pause when the fed meets in two weeks. how do you see this impacting the markets from now until then? >> the market

christine lagarde has not given us a theory on where the ecb will be going, but she has said tackling inflation will be important. it is something we will have to keep an eye on. dani: i thanks to jill and valerie for your time. that was great analysis to start us off. these are the stories we're keeping an eye on today, starting at 9:30, the bank of england's decision maker panel will give us an update on inflation expectations. half an hour later we will get the final reading on gdp. 1:30 u.k. time, we will get an update on u.s. jobless claims, and finally we will hear from the new york fed president john williams who will be speaking at a bloomberg event and a talk from the atlanta fed president. you can get around up of all the stories that you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. >> coming up, we dive into the markets, including a look into japan as the job -- dollar in move hasn't been determined yet, that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ when it comes to getting your flu shot, cvs is pretty... flex. wanna schedule one online while prepping dinner? gra

what christine lagarde has to say today will have a huge influence on currencies, bonds, and a bubbly equities as well. -- probably equities as well. rishaad: we will see if they actually do hike rates, people might sell to europe because it means growth gets more stymied. i want to look at japan and see the latest there because we keep waiting for an abandonment of yield curve control. we have seen the end continue to fall, but you see it at eight year lows against the korean won. mark: it is not just against the korean won, obviously the chinese currency comes into play as well. in a way, you can think about the three currencies in one. because they compete in some of the same markets, export markets, where one goes, the other is likely to follow. the path of the korean won from here is dependent on a turn in the yen and to some degree, the trans--- chinese currency as well. korea in a way is making policy that that thinks is domestic, raised interest rates already, it looks like it will hold for some time, but they are looking over their shoulder closely of all the policy settings

the biggest risks for investors who plan to get in early and what wall street can expect when christine lagarde releases her decision on the ecb. >>> the top 100 financial advisers is out. we speak about one of the worst months for stocks. a very busy hour still ahead on "worldwide exchange." we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. (mom) bringing in a new roommate to save money - is that the plan? (dad) well we gotta find some way to save. so say hi to glen. from work. (glen) hey. that's my mom. (mom) i think i have a much better plan. we switch to myplan from verizon. we get exactly what we want and save big. all on the network we can count on. (daughter) it's a good plan (dad) that is a good plan. glen looks like we're not going to be needing you. so i'll see you at work. (son) later glen. (vo) this week. new and cu

they are sandwiched around christine lagarde. sales and revenue out on friday.k those two fast fashion companies will be interesting. take a look at the top line. look at what they are telling us about what the consumer is doing. ecb rate decision on thursday. that is the main event. the market is pricing in around 40% chance of a high versus a pause. it feels like a coin toss. alix: how do they illustrate a hawkish pause and they probably will have to downgrade or go productions for next year? it will be a communication nightmare. joining us now to break it down sreekala kochugovindan . what is the ecb going to do? >> they have a dilemma on their hand. you looking at activity data it is an irritating and probably quite a looker than they're expecting. they're already looking at contraction. very -- on the other hand if you look at the markets, still very tight, wage growth, wage pressures and if you break down the inflation components, yes, we deceleration. prices, core services take some time to decelerate. a row dilemma for the ecb and we can see that in the

while bank president christine lagarde refused to explicitly confirm that thursday's hike would be theone for this cycle, she did say what analysts are -- she did send what analysts are interpreting is rather strong signals. >> with today's decision, we have made significant contributions under current assessment to returning inflation to target in a timely manner. as i said, both elements matter. the level, sufficiently restrictive, and the duration, but the focus is probably going to move a bit more to the duration. >> investors in europe took heart from the production that the ecb could be done hiking rates. automakers lost some ground as investors worried that an eu investigation into eu electric vehicle subsidies. wall street broke a three-day losing streak as the latest u.s. court inflation data ended slightly higher than expected. retail data for august meeting expectations as sales jumped .6%. the dollar is at a six-month high against the euro as all major indexes ended the day up .8%. the big news on wall street this thursday, though, was the return of arm public trading. it w

christine lagarde has been talking about cpi numbers coming out this week.head of european equity strategy is joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: monday, 25th of september. it is ugly out there. >> the countdown is on in europe. this is bloomberg markets european close with guy johnson and alix steel. ♪

now christine lagarde is more concerned about a wage price, even as their economy slips into a technicale eurozone led by germany. we're not as worried about that here, but the bottom line is the job is not done, and that message was clear. i think the other side of this, is that the fed doesn't expect to cut rates as rap putly as it hiked hiked rates nor does it expect to go to the ultra low rates we saw in the wake of 2008-2009 recession. the balance sheet repairs that we saw in the wake of that great recession have really helped us to be much more resilient this time around, but it also justifies higher rates than we had prior to the crisis. >> but, diane, on the other side of the equation, the economic data starting to come in a little bit soft, and people are paying attention to, for instance, what we heard from some of the retailers, macy's and nordstrom, increased rate of delinquencies from credit card borrowers, that sort of thing. isn't the flip side if the economy weakens more materially and we see the stress show up, as we do with lags from central banks, i don't know, hiking

i think even if we get a hold, christine lagarde is going to get focused on telling markets don't expect us to get into easing mode yet. tom: michael, justina, i like the fact that you brought up the challenge for the ecb and on that point, i want to tap your expertise before we go back to michael because the china linkage is to europe and how clear cut they are, there is more optimism in the session as the result of a turnaround. are we sorting to have to rethink china's growth trajectory and our thing starting to turn more positive in china and in this quarter? does china become more positive for this global economy and get a lift for europe? justina: it feels like things are turning around. that is relative to very low expectations but we are getting some crucial chinese data this week and economists currently are projecting a more -- a little bit of a pickup because of all of the instructions everyone has been getting from the central government. we will probably see some improvement in policy driven demand and that will help -- that will hopefully change the narrative for europe as

yousef: also speaking this week will be christine lagarde. in many ways the european inflation story is a lot trickier than what the u.s. has to deal with today. how do they bring this home and make sure that inflation and cost pressure stay under control within mainland europe? geoffrey: in her sintra speech she was clear about the divergence in various parts of the economy in terms of labor growth you low productivity sectors in the euro zone actually driving labor market growth as manufacturing is in the opposite direction. where did she see the balance of risks up ahead. so steep based on the pmi's up ahead. best, drag down that overall demand as a whole. she actually has a much narrower path across compared to her colleagues over in the u.s.. let's see how that development is going there but she needs to expand on what she mentioned during her speech. >> i would love to leverage some of your strategic insights built from years and years of front lines of the industry. looking at european stocks beginning to think whether those evaluation

on september 20, jay powell does not have the stress christine lagarde has. much tougher decision to make over the next several months. tom: the answer is, there is this turmoil where america, it seems every conversation comes out better. how do you bet against that? jonathan: eight weeks of dollar strength speaks to exactly what we are talking about. lisa: i read an estimate from deutsche bank taking the $190 billion decline in apple valuation would have put it in one of the top 11 stocks of the stocks. just to give you a sense of how that relative valuation would be on europe. they don't have the tech story. they didn't have the fiscal stimulus story and that will be a big discussion. jonathan: there is u.s. exceptionalism of a different kind. lisa: a sugar lobby? jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ let innovation refunds help with your erc tax refund so you can improve your business however you see fit. rosie used part of her refund to build an outdoor patio. clink! dr. marshall used part of his refund to give his practice a facelift. emily

at jackson hole, christine lagarde stressed the outlook is uncertain.ference at 8:15 and bring highlights. howard schultz has re-retired, retired again. he stepped down from the company's board yesterday fully exiting the company's leadership after he had returned in march of 2022 to help it navigate a leadership transition, and some labor challenges. oh, boy. fi first time viewer, schultz departure was planned. delta air lines is changing how fliers can earn elite flier status. january 1st, customers will earn delta medallion status solely based on their spending instead of a combination of dollars spent with the carrier, and combined with flights. the new model is similar to the one american airlines adopted earlier this year, and the new rules will cut unlimited access to the clubs, that's not nice, for certain american express card holders, delta customers will earn one medallion qualifying dollar for every dollar they spend on delta flights as well as car rentals, hotels and vacation packages that are booked through the airline. i like going in tho

christine lagarde is sending somewhat different signals than chairman powell.hinese monetary policy is in a different place because the economy is in a different place. there is quite a bit of differences here, which is not always a good thing. shery: there are so many challenges right now, but i do not where to start because i do not think we have addressed in depth what is happening with the labor action and what the implications are for potential wage increases? if this is actually expanded to other sectors, not to mention we do have the student debt repayments coming up as well, which could depress the economy. what do you with the most pressing issue for the u.s. economy right now? >> you have to understand my background is in fact is a labor economist. i am very popular by the way. i think the most pressing issue is labor force, short-term, medium-term, long-term, and in the united states i just think we have not begun to absorb the fact that we have actually not enough people with high enough productivity, which is a business fixed investment issue as mu

christine lagarde has been consistent that the ecb will not stop until they get inflation back to itsarget. financial market traders are pricing and over 70% chance that it will. offsetting that is what is going on in the real world, the big industrial slump due to the legacy of the energy crisis and of course the slowdown from china. we just heard the experts reducing from germany for example. it will be a difficult call for the ecb. the ecb and all these central banks are reaching a juncture it will it will be hard to make the: raising rates. it was easier to hike rates when growth was tearing away early in the cycle. it gets harder from here. shery: our global economics first opponent enda curran joining us with the latest on global central banks. we have the latest on the world's largest public listing this year. softbank backed cheap designer arm is pricing shares of its ipo at $51, the top end of the market range. they are expected to start trading on the nasdaq on thursday. let's bring in equity markets reporter amy orr. christ really high. but what are the implications going f

what is the best policy prescription for christine lagarde and leaders in brussels? basically stay the course. for monetary policy we have tightened more than we should have. now the clear message is we are at the peak, which has been reassuring for markets and for fiscal policy i would say the same, stay the course, which largely means we have a big fiscal program in europe, which is now about $800 billion. the task is more to make sure the money is being spent rather than thinking about any new money. tom: is jerome powell central banker to the world. is central banker to europe? >> not quite. europe is not that dependent on the u.s.. for europe it is madame lagarde that we are glad to watch. lisa: you think people are too bearish in europe? >> not for the next few months. we are having a sharp inventory correction. the u.s. economy near-term will be slowing down. near-term europe is having trouble. next year, global manufacturing will pick up. inventory correction will be over. next year europe good surprise on the upside. lisa: will some of this slow down and neg

the language from christine lagarde last week was, yes, they are setting the high for long.om the european experience on the others of the atlantic? you see germany go into a recession. is softer growth the cure for what we are experiencing at the moment? gilles: i know a lot of economists have been wrong on that for the last year, but history would tell you it is very hard to get inflation without proper pain in the economy, especially when inflation is no longer about you. as long as it is proven otherwise, but is happening in europe is probably a lesson for what will happen in the u.s., even if u.s. resilience is amazing at the moment. the big difference between the 2 is in germany there is a more structural issue, which is coming back to bite them at the moment, which is to some extent disconnected from monetary policy. they would probably be in a softer patch. you want to kill inflation, especially when it has started to get entrenched. you need to engineer some softening of demand. there is not a lot in the textbooks that would tell you otherwise. lisa: is europe compl

christine lagarde has no chance on this.ger trend in a policy. jon: one person, not a consensus builder, he would believe the council into a corner and say we are doing this. lagarde is a consensus builder but she gets a and easier time because jeremy -- and she gets an easier time because germany -- people make out it was a deal between doves and hawks and the hawks i am hearing from, they are not that hawkish on the ecb, are they? elsa: they are less hawkish than they used to be because germany is feeling be weakness but one person had to do that because it was a crisis situation and that forced his hand. we are not really there now. jon: i teased this earlier when we were assessing sterling and lisa was asking a question regarding the u.k. and sterling. how important are right inferential for currency pairs? what does it mean? elsa: i agree with lisa bet it is ambiguous and i heard from people trying to talk up sterling as i carry trade. -- as a carry trade. the fact that i said earlier, you remove the tail risk up stagfl

lisa: have you heard christine lagarde's comments? they are the most noncommittal comments.g to happen, we are going to do what we do. can they afford to do that when the data is coming in so weak? can they afford to take that noncommittal stance when you see signs of stagflation mounting in the euro region? jonathan: single net mandate, does that change some things? do they? is it a dual mandate they don't have the following, any unwillingness to crash the economy to get inflation back to target? inflation is the number one job and put the stuff is open to interpretation. the mandate was different to how draghi viewed it. lisa: the market is implying that there is it will mandate for the ecb, not just the federal reserve. they're not going to curtail momentum to such degree in order to get inflation back down. because not did say -- clause did say the importance of getting efficient down. jonathan: it is all about dollar strength, prompting authorities in japan and china to step up defense of their currencies. japan issuing its strongest warning in weeks. china issuing the

that will be followed by the conference by christine lagarde.uto workers will be in focus thursday night and friday morning. at midnight is when the contract with the big three automakers expires. you could see a strike at the least one of those automakers if there is no deal in the next few days. by the way, they are far apart at this point. joining us now is sylvia jablonski. sylvia, the big number is cpi and ppi. looking at the inflation numbers will tell us what we will expect from the fed. how much is riding on that? >> i think so. good morning, becky. a lot is riding on it in the short-term market and how it reacts to it. do we have a pull back from last week or do we resume the rally from the first half of the year? i think the bigger picture doesn't matter what happens in one particular read. we know inflation is coming down. it has come down quite significantly. if we keep going in that direction and the economy is holding up, overall, it is not as big of an issue as months prior. >> do you think the fed will likely be sitting on its ha

christine lagarde gave a speech before the european parliament a few days ago. the chief economist at the doe mention higher for longer as well. they are all picking up on this. lisa: are we seeing something break in markets now? >> i think we could see something break like when you see this kind of volatility. it's the concentration of risks that will cause something to break. you just don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out use the old figurative analogy. the presumption here is that there is something out there that will break. we don't know what it will be. could it be micro, yes, but it could also be macro. it could be the regional banks again with their holdings on commercial real estate. that could break up the bond move causes a massive repricing. tom: that's where i am looking, commercial real estate. we've heard about cost of capital from blackrock today as well. a brilliant guest at an important time as markets unravel. i've got 5.14 to year yield which is up a basis point, maybe not leading out the curve is where you see price down an