having seen christine lagarde, i'm even more surprised.raordinary, how jay powell seems to have pivoted. he is looking around corners, whereas christine lagarde feels like she is in a different place. alix: pivot party. the data here is still strong. take a look at retail sales. something is not working. coming up, sylvia jablonski joins. this is bloomberg. ♪ ahhh (jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren't hungry or fatigued. after i started taking release, the weight just started falling off. since starting golo and taking release, i've gone from a size 12 to a 4. before golo, i was hungry all the time and con

lizzy: do you think he's made it easier for christine lagarde to make their own bold passes later on?re, yes. even just before blackout, powell was pushing back on market pricing a bit there. lagarde's last remark said that she thought that the policy may -- rate will stay where it is for a couple of quarters. i don't think we will be hearing a huge amount of this from the bank of england anymore. more likely is that they will acknowledge the policy rates are going to come down in 2024. they will be more circumspect than the fed has been. for the bank of england, inflation is stickier and wage growth is faster. there's a greater inflation problem perhaps years and elsewhere. lizzy: thanks to jamie rush. you've set us up perfectly for our next conversation. bloomberg economics ranks that the bank of england is going to hold rates today at 5.25%. to discuss the commentary around it though i'm joined by michael saunders. he was a member of the bank of england monetary policy committee. now he's a senior policy advisor. great to have you on the program. you heard jamie talking about the p

he joins us now as we go to christine lagarde. used of silver what was going on in your press conference. it's almost historic times. why are we seeing this with powell, bailey and lagarde? mike: i think what is happening is we're seeing inflation fall faster in the united states than in other places. the central banks are acknowledging that inflation is coming down in their monetary policies of worked and there doesn't seem to be a reason to raise rates further. tom: if we see the mortgage rate commend the dynamics of the inflation surge we saw, will there be a roaring 20 20's? mike: we may see inflation rise at the beginning of the year because of base effects from low inflation but the way people are spending, we are seeing solid but small gains. not the outsized gains we saw earlier this year. part of that was inflation driven in part of that was a hangover from the pandemic. but we are beginning to see people get into the normal 2019 spending patterns. retail sales, everything was pretty much as you would expect with gasoline

the party continues despite christine lagarde and andrew bailey. back against the narrative vibrated that's next year. we had a surprise court hike from a bank, but futures pointing to write higher opening both here and in the u.s. euro stoxx 50 futures higher. ftse 100 futures higher .3 of 1%. s&p futures and nasdaq futures both higher .1 of 1%. all-time highs on stocks, everything rallying from stocks to treasuries, credit to commodities all an excitement of fed cuts in 2024. treasuries declining in the asia session, two year treasury yield up four basis points. goldman sees dropping to 3.7% by the end of the year. bloomberg dollar spot index to study this morning despite the hawkish tilt from the boe yesterday. brent on course for its first weekly gain since october, so a shot in the arm from jay powell. it has been a busy week for central banks, the latest commentary from europe suggesting central banks there are in no hurry to join a u.s. pivot. andrew bailey and christine lagarde have both reiterated their commitments to keep rates high to ta

christine lagarde wrapping up her news conference. many investors have been pushing and anticipating rate cuts. christine: we did not the scott -- discuss rate cuts at all. no discussion, no debate on this issue. not everyone takes the view that between hike and cuts, there is a whole plateau, whole beach of hold. it's like -- i don't know. solid, liquid, gas. you don't go from solid to gas without going through the liquid phase. guy: ok. that is an interesting way of looking at it. maria has been there at the ecb today in frankfurt and is still there. rate work today, first of all. let's talk about the gap between the ecb and people are surprisee fed. many people are more surprised that the ecb stuck to this idea that it did not even discuss rate cuts. do people believe the ecb when it says that? maria: look, it's a very good question and will become a fundamental question. before we get to that, you played it very clearly. it is clear this is a central bank that wants to stretch this idea of higher for longer as long as it possibly c

guy: what do european equity markets needed to hear from christine lagarde?hat's the perfect message here? we are getting it under control we will deliver that lower inflation. it is going to happen but it is good to happen later. that later bit should be taken as good news. helen: she has been so focused on this inflation point i don't think she will say in q1 of next year we have inflation. so her saying we will wait but we are going to be certain. >> so a hawkish lagarde is equity positive because that goes against the nature and the muscle memory we built up. >> it goes back to your first point of the why. if by managing it that way what she is saying is we are doing it because inflation is under control we are not going early because of recession concerns. what we are seeing priced in at the moment with the ecb first before the fed is there's greater recession concerns. in the u.s. it is all about inflation. if she is able to reverse that narrative i think it would be positive for european markets. >> thank you very much. coming up we have some deals goi

he sounded a lot more like christine lagarde at the october fomc press conference and saying were notn talking about the cuts. things move pretty fast and reality is on jay powell's side. there's been a massive amount of disinflation in the united states with unemployment low and growth strong and the fed sees it and they got good news on inflation just as weak as they went into their meeting. they are paying attention to it and it's the message he should be giving. romaine: when you consider how far with come in terms of inflation coming down in the idea the fed feels confident not to signal that the rate tightening cycle is over here, was that lock or was this about the way that powell & co. navigated this policy tightening cycle over the last year and a half? >> jay powell is not the person landing this plane. the entire cycle has at next to nothing to do with the fed. we got the inflation because of covid in ukraine and we are getting the disinflation because workers came back to work and the economy is opening up and he didn't drilled oil or any of the things that need to be done

christine lagarde -- i will get them in the right order.ck on a market that is prized -- has prized significant cuts, and early cuts, for next year. pooja: there will definitely push back, and the keyway the fed will push back is the dot plot. the dot plot is unlikely to show -- i think that's where markets might get disappointed. i think the payroll number does not change the picture for the fed. i think they are still holding around the 200 mark for average hourly earnings. i think the pushback comes be at the dot plot. it is just that financial conditions have eased a lot from the november. i think the central bank -- i think especially ecb, the momentum for rate cuts has been way too aggressive. i feel there will be pushback, but ultimately after the december meeting we are all data-driven and seeing that slowdown. any selloff, i think, will be short-lived into these meetings. just because markets do not get what they want. now the key driving seat will be driven by data. i think that is where you will see that long-duration coming back

the european central bank, certainly christine lagarde has said it is too early.m the bank of england and even the federal reserve, although they have hinted at rate cut next year, it is not as many as markets are expecting. the us expecting around six, in the uk four have been pencilled in but the central bank is a saying hold your horses a big guy we're not there yet. —— hold your horses a bit. the fight is not over so you are having this nod from the federal reserve, that rate cuts are going to come and steal in the uk, for example, if the pound is weaker, then it means that the cost of importing goods is more expensive and that causes inflation to be even more persistent so that is part of the reason and because of the bank of england is being hesitant, the pound has gone up slightly, so it is hoping it is going to do thatjob for it. thank you very much for that. well, let's stay with inflation and the global cost of borrowing, because as 2023 draws to a close, the bbc has been speaking one of the world's leading experts, bruce kasman, chief economist at the b

thursday, christine lagarde, governor bailey at the bank of england.ll be delivering rate decisions after jay powell. that is how the events are going to shape up. today, very quiet. the question, how much pushback of these three -- are these three going to deliver to current market pricing? kailey: that has been our question of the day. joining us now is evelyn hermon, bank of america european economist. if we take these three collectively, the fed, the ecb, the boe, i wonder how much they will all be singing the same tune, hey markets, you have gotten ahead of yourselves. >> it is difficult to imagine them not at least tentatively trying to push back. we are probably done with rate hikes. how much of a pushback can you generate once central banks are conceding that message? guy: if they do not pushback, are they cover up current market pricing? >> we have had policy speakers including more on the hawkish side who have said we are probably done with rate hikes now. that does not mean they move into cuts immediately. it means the next move is likely to

emphatic from christine lagarde there. >>> the bank of england pushed back against any suggestion of policy pivot as it held steady at 5.2%. it said rates would need to remain higher for an extended period and would remain sticky in the economy. >>> elsewhere, the swiss national bank held rates at 5.7%. it said pressures have eased, but flaggeduncertainty. >>> norway's central bank hiking its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and saying it will likely keep rates at that level until the end of next year. it has been a busy week. i'm happy to say the head of global sovereign and currency from fixed asset management joining mess o on the set. do you think the market reaction was consistent with the messaging the fed wanted to give? >> i think so. i wasn't surprised. i think we have seen early signs of central bank success to bring inflation down 2% next year. as inflation comes down to 2%, monetary policy can be normalized to a neutral level which will be around 3% for the fed and 2% ecb and maybe 1% for bank of japan. bank of japan going in the opposite direction. >> you said 1% for ba

a piece of this is not just the power pivot but christine lagarde being hawkish which is helping thewhich is pressuring down on the dollar. the breath has increased. this may suggest it is not as strong as it was in july. this is the members above the 50-day moving average. here it is almost 90%. in july, it was also 90%. now we are at a higher level for the s&p 500. the number of participants about the same. if this keeps rising, it will be healthy. if it should turn back down, that could be a bearish divergence. you can make the case now even though the breath looks good, it is not as good as the last rally. let's look at the rally, not shabby at all. official bull market up 23%. most of this is coming in the first half. the best first half ever, a record first half of the nasdaq 100 contributing to the bigger than 50% gain on the year. alix: we have triple witching and reconstituting of the major indices. i'm wondering how this plays into flows and etf's. abigail: it does create volatility on the day. we are not seeing it relative to the surface level but volume on the open 500% a

rishaad: yep, that is christine lagarde. let's get to our bloomberg rate strategist.lly just looking at the whole physics of going from solid to gas here, it is surely a little more nuanced than that, david? david: well, to some degree i think they are trying to get the message off, we know the markets are very biased towards rate cuts. they want them sooner rather than later. the central banks are trying to say they will come eventually, but meantime don't go too quickly for the rate cuts. they are more and second, third quarter they are trying to indicate, where is the market are saying we think they could be in the first quarter, as soon march. i think they are just trying to do whatever they can to push back against that idea. a look at the boe, they really did surprise markets because everyone thought they had a table melting, which means they would stay there a long time, but three people yesterday indicated there could be a rate hike. that surprised markets by how hawkish that sounded. where as the fed message was perceived as dovish, the ecb and definitely the

lizzy: could we have a hawkish surprise in the language of christine lagarde? we will have to see on thursday. mark crane field in singapore for that analysis. israeli prime minister and german netanyahu criticized russia's cooperation with iran. he had a 50-minute phone call with vladimir putin yesterday. relations between the two nations have been strained since hamas' attack on october 7. bruce einhorn joins us now for more analysis. this relationship under strain since october 7 between israel and russia, can you give us the readout of the crew 10 netanyahu conversation yesterday -- putin and netanyahu conversation yesterday? >> i can't hear you, but i will answer what i think is your question, which is that the two leaders spoke on sunday for just under an hour. in the escutcheon, prime minister netanyahu spoke critically of russia's cooperation with iran. president putin, for his part, talked about the need for protection of civilians in gaza. iran and russia have gotten very close, especially since the launch of the full-scale invasion of ukraine. russia

at what point do those growth figures force christine lagarde's hand here?, by the way they always say they are data dependent, they do not focus on the fed, they always say we are not as fed driven, we respond to our own dynamics and believe whether right or not inflation dynamics, growth dynamics, labor dynamics are different across the e you -- eu. you have to listen to that press conference. when it comes to the data, she said it will guide our future decisions and she talked about the first half of the year. this is not a story she wants to present as a q1 and we see. she talked about the first half of the year, it will be data rich and we will get a better picture of where the european economies going. you get a points like the one you had today with pmi's, which are softer. you continue to get may be better than expected inflation prints, that is going to build the central bank and get it in a position where they will be criticized as to whether or not they are running the economy and the prospects for it. let's switch gears and talk about the e.u. su

. >> what did you make of what christine lagarde did?rom the way you are talking, she was may be on the right track if what powell did you thought was going to happen but just later. what did you make of that? the data stinks, particularly manufacturing. >> it does, but in fact, domestic demand in europe is likely to be as porous as the soft data suggests. china is that week, europe is going to be -- why should german services pmi be the same level as it was in august of 2012 when european debt crisis was raging? i think some data in europe could improve from here. i think lagarde is playing -- also remember it is not the same level of real rates. the federal reserve has taken real rates to a much higher level even relative that has the ecb. the markets completely ignored that lagarde and bailey was different and the market has priced ecb almost exactly the same way, in fact, a hair more than it has priced that. the trade here is receiving u.s. dues relative to european dues because the market is pricing in exactly the same outcomes when

kailey: they may beg to differ if you're talking about christine lagarde or jerome powell but the market seems set on the idea cuts are coming in the not so different future -- distant future. while that is happening, the boj hike while others are cutting? joining us is enda curran and marcus ashworth. first to you, marcus. can the boj do that, should they? marcus: they should but they are very skillful with how they do their timing of these things. i've watch these markets for years and they do it at their own behest and it won't be pushed into timing at the markets wish. however, the hints being dropped suggests there is a reasonable chance they do start doing something, tweaking up to maybe slightly above zero at their next meeting. they could easily delay it. yields, which they have been trying to talk up towards the 1% mark, they dropped sharply down below the 70 basis points. obviously today with bad auctions and a few other comments we have seen it repriced up. but, this is a good opportunity, they are in a much better space and flexibility for room if yields do go higher. i think

you heard from andrew bailey and christine lagarde, even the boj said it is all about that selloff inyear. how much of that is true? how much work did it really do for the central banks? raffaella: good morning and happy monday to everybody. it's a pleasure to be here. the bond market rally does imply some easing of monetary stance, but from highly restrictive. it's not going to really be enough. we think that 100 basis points is where you really need to avoid a significant downturn in 2025. more so in the eurozone than in the u.s., but in general what you have seen is not enough. it's allowing this relatively long lag between tight monetary policy and a slowdown in the economy to get a little bit of respite. but it isn't a real game changer. kriti: what does that do in terms of the terminal rate? this idea that for a while there was a lot of conversation even by jamie dimon who said maybe we need to pull that rate to 6%. there was folks in the market who said 7% may be on the table. >> i would say by and large, yes. i don't think it makes any sense to really tighten monetary policy a

you had christine lagarde highlighting wages and the sticky wage inflation we have seen.ll you be reading for tomorrow in the eurozone cpi? >> so in terms of what we are expected for tomorrow, it is confirmation of the numbers we have already seen, and we know the november numbers have been flattened somewhat so we will receive confirmation of that. you are right, there is a stickiness of the inflation picture in europe that is still something to contend with, particularly with wages. we have seen some of the negotiations still come through, so we see impact there. as you were talking a little earlier on, we need to keep an eye on inflation. geopolitical risks are still around. guy: are these the near time lows -- are these the lows for inflation? henrietta: it could be a local low. do we expect more pickup? no, unless we have more information. alix: do you see wage inflation is stickier in europe than the u.s.? henrietta: it is something to watch in both geographies. i think as we said all through this year, there are infliction dynamics between the u.s. and europe that

it feels like we have heard similar rhetoric from christine lagarde with euro-dollar at 1.20, for example take? >> the japan economists on our team's impression is they are more cautious than people have baked in. yield curve control will live longer until we can see strong signs that inflation is picking up. if inflation doesn't pick up in this environment, when will it? so they only have one shot at this policy maneuver, so we are expecting them to be somewhat cautious in their approach. kriti: talk to us about other policy tools being used. when you talk about the boj, that boj famously invented qe, and by extension qt. at the time it was invented, very experimental, do you think it is still working? >> the large stock of assets on central banks' balance sheets is squeezing long-term yields still. his acting as a downward influence across the world. when he think about what the start of monetary policy looks like, it is easy to forget that we did all these asset purchases. when you look at short-term interest rates, policy looks super restrictive, when you look at long-term rates, that

christine lagarde is chillaxing, or at least i hope she is. the president of the ecb has covid. we hope she gets better soon. the markets are certainly pointing us in a direction for the ecb that is downwards. rates are going to be cut. markets pricing, we got fortified in 2024. we did not price in rate cuts, then suddenly, we have priced in an awful lot. in some ways, the arguments in europe and the united states may be different. inflation may be stickier in europe, and that will cause a problem in the ecb. on the other hand, growth is coming down rapidly. what is the ecb going to respond to, that sticky inflation or growth? what we may be seeing here is quite significant divergence. the fed has got one story, the ecb, potentially the bank of england, a different one. i wonder if that will lead to divergence among the central banks. alix: the oecd definitely seeing that in their report. the ecb vice president spoke in madrid earlier today and said the data were a positive surprise, but central bank still have to be cautious. he points to wage gains. that is a dove still talkin

christine lagarde of the european central bank has been talking about guidance of second half of thephone potential for cutting rat. look where the market is. they're expecting a rate cut in europe in p april. there's a debate on who cuts rates first, europe or the united states, and we look at oil prices this morning to get a sense of the demand situation out there. prices might be trading more on this opec news. opec announced another output cut of a million barrels a day. when you look at crude at 76, 09, right now, group the highs, is that a an indicator of growth slowing or an indicator of opec moves and what does that mean for the u.s. and europe? >> i think it's more opec moves. growth is moderating especially with the consumer who continues to feel the squeeze of inflation. it's interesting, i know there's a lot of optimism in the market about inflation being down to 3 but that's 3% higher than 9% last year and the big inflation year before. so i think with higher interest rates, with higher cost of living, the consumer is stressed, maria. and while this has been a great year

we will have christine lagarde's pressor at 14:45 cet.usy day for me. >>> eu leaders are arriving for the final meeting of the year. top of the agenda is additional aid for ukraine. silvia joins us from brussels where she is joinings a key player in the discussion. this man has been dominating the headlines. you and i have spoken about him at length. tell us what he said, zsilvia. >> reporter: it is a busy day here in brussels, joulianna. we know this is an important subject for kyiv when they are struggling with the counteroffensive and imminent threat that u.s. support will come to an end and further pressure on the eu to deliver for ukraine. we know and we have been speaking about this through the week. so far, hungary is blocking the 50 billion euro disbursement to ukraine. speaking with the prime minister of hungary, it seems there is no change in position from budapest. i want to show you the remarks from the prime minister of hungary who i spoke with moments ago. >> the first is to get the better late than never. second, why we are

of walking back the expectations of cuts next year >> we've already started to see that where christine lagardeent of the ecb, has talked about the fact that we can't say mission accomplished just yet we're not necessarily done on inflation because they still have an inflation rate above their target and they don't want financial conditions to loosen so much that it risks flaring or spiking inflation, which would make their job even harder and take back some of the progress we've made i think that's one of the key questions into next week, carl, is powell -- the last time we heard from him was last friday it sounded like he tried a little bit to say we might still have work to do. he tried to calm down expectations but didn't do so. the market took off and rallied. will he be tougher will he sound tougher as they try to get the markets not to get too excited about rate cuts to undo some progress? >> yeah. whether or not that guidance gets more robust next week going to be a huge story. >>> let's get a news update with our bertha coombs. >> hey, carl the chief of the united nations issued a star

christine lagarde. >> greg: international community. >> jessica: yes, it is.ot one person, and senate republicans, whole bunch of them. republicans are freaking out because of the beginnings of this impeachment inquiry, which i've been going on or fact finding going on since they took the majority about a year ago has turned up absolutely nothing. >> jesse: really? >> jessica: really. you should be leading, or you should be leading, judge, because jim palmer is not up for this. jim jordan, site him again, on with marnie talking about what the impact is going to be, driving down biden's phone numbers come i don't know how pronounce his name, what's going to be the outcome of the impeachment inquiry? trump 2024, baby. this morning, maria bartiromo has nancy mace on. hey, nancy, nice to see you this morning, thanks for getting up early with us. what you got? where are the policy changes that came as a result of being paid off? nancy mace. i don't have anything. i said, go get -- i love being with you, but you had the committee, if you have all of the answers. con

christine lagarde today at 9:00. it is going to be the bank of canada in terms of central banking news and their rate decision and to me, they have been a leader, so i think this could be telling in terms of the balance of risks side. jonathan: i never know whether to take it seriously or not. lisa: canada has been important. tom: are we doing auctions later? lisa: tuesday we get isf services. thursday, change in households. friday, the university of michigan getting up there. jonathan: i would say things like do we cover canadian data in the central bank decision and i was told by a bunch of -- that we don't care about canada and that is my take away. lisa: nobody cared about canada except that they recently have looked at it as a leading indicator. it is a quiet week on central banks. tom: let's get to our distinguished guests. jonathan: do you want to do bama and sfu? lisa: i was watching lennon football and you guys are watching bama. jonathan: i get all of these complains about european football, i don't underst

christine lagarde reiterating the commitment to keep rates high to tame prices. >> our job is to receive the target sustainably. we are making progress. it's come down from 11% to 4.5%. it will come down further. we have to achieve it sustainably. there's more to do. i'm courage. we've got more to do. that's what we will do. >> we did not discuss cuts at all. no discussion, debate on this issue. everybody takes the view between hike and cut is a plateau, a beach of hold. it's like i don't know, liquid gas. you don't go from solid to gas without going liquid. haidi: i thought that image, a beach of hold, may just settle in and get comfortable. >> could be. i was having an image maybe she would like to come to sydney, where it is so warm. even if central bankers understandably are keen to push back against the idea of a rapid vivid -- that would mean they had gone too far. they wanted to trust what they've done. getting inflation under control. they've got it under control early enough, without having to go to high too fast, so they can get a soft landing. problem is, wave after wave of in

they are looking a bit risky, but initially regardless of what we hear from christine lagarde. analysts, looking asymmetric after a pretty strong rally. a hawkish ecb could lead the markets to really pare back bets on repricing volatility. that is it for "daybreak: asia." markets coverage continues. ♪ that first time you take a step back. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy. alot like savings! blendjets holiday sale is on now! give the gift of convenience the blendjet 2 portable blender is perfect for everyone on your list. even that picky relative who hates everything. and dont forget the accessories! theyre all on sale! dont wait! our most popular colors and patterns will sell out! go to blendjet.com and take advantage of our holiday sale now. an ever-changing landscape comes with challenges. from our vantage point, we see opportunities. as a top-ten real estate manager, we harness the power of a 360° perspective, delivering local insights

treasury rally has been post-fed and we got in the last hour the news conference from ecb president christine lagardeage for the market surrounding rate cuts. listen. >> we did not, we did not discuss rate cuts at all. no discussion, no debate on this issue. i think everybody in the room takes the view that between hike be and cut, there's a whole plateau, whole beach of hold. >> that was very different than the message we heard from fed chair powell yesterday on the subject of rate cuts. listen. >> the question of when will it become appropriate to begin dialing back the amount of policy restraint in place? that begins to examine into view and is clearly a topic of discussion in the world and also a discussion for us at our meeting today. >> they discussed it at the meeting today. so very different message, david. i think it underscores why powell was remarkably and surprisingly dovish. it started with the three rate cuts that were pencilled in to their summer of economic projections. a lot of people were surprised by that. then it continued with a statement where we knew they were going to maybe ma

really this comes down to, becky, whether or not christine lagarde president, press conference at 8:45ing they are going to be -- pushed higher, because of what the federal reserve did. in part, the ecb has its own independence in what's going on in the fed, but in part it doesn't. over time, if inflation is coming down and the fed is moving faster, it's going to put some pressure on the ecb to respond. one thing i'm going to do right now. look what's happening in the bond market. the germy ten year benchmark had fallen quite a bit to 209 from 224 yesterday with the fed, and it's unchanged. the other thing i want to check, unchanged at 209. the euro around 109 and also unchanged. not a big change in the market. not a big surprise from this announcement so far. all of the action is going to come at guidance of lagarde at 8:45. pointing out important data in a few minutes. retail sales report for november from the government. you remember, retail monitor had earlier this week show add strong november from that standpoint see the extent to could the government reports. the key question, b

lisa: what we heard from christine lagarde is this feeling the need to stick with it, the feeling they thinking about rate cuts, the feeling they are not the federal reserve. no one was listening to her because jay powell set the tone and the data is not there to support an economy that can withstand date -- that can withstand rates at this level. jonathan: german business expectations worsening, dampening hopes of a recovery. a gauge of expectations fell from the previous month. analysts had been expecting an uptick. put that together with the pmi's on friday, not a great picture of the european economy. lisa: it is the biggest economy in the region so if it is having trouble you have an issue. can you get the same kind of commitment hold a great sigh, especially when inflation is coming in faster in europe. the services sector is not seeing the same kind of inflation that is inflecting upward. there is a real question about how sticky this is and how much they will be able to deal with more disinflation into next year. jonathan: i promised you an update on this story. bp pausing all

christine lagarde seemed like she trying to be hawkish but it went the other way.cially after what we got from jerome powell, playing up everyone's dovish fantasies. >> it was time. >> ok, jersey girls, let's leave it there. the senior investment-grade strategist. do not mess with these women on this set this morning. they are playing hard and fast. we will talk about this. in the credit world, he would say it spread since 2021. high-grade is not cheap. with that in mind, is this tight spread narrative completely predicated on the presumption of 150 basis points of cuts next year? >> i do not think it is completely predicated on it. i would say, as we look ahead, we are expecting the fed to cut first. since early october, actually. it was a difficult message to deliver to clients at that point. they had not indicated the same kind of disinflation that we had seen, so now we have almost 150 basis points priced in and we are thinking -- we are thinking that the fed can go before the ecb but it will come down to discussing, does the economy fall into recession? is the

number two is the head of the european central bank, christine lagarde, also for the second year in af high inflation and tough economic times, especially for consumers. and number three is vice president -- u.s. vice president kamala harris. she is the most, you know, powerful woman in american politics. you know, elsewhere on the list we see women flexing their power in our industries. taylor swift jumped the ranks from 79 to number 5 this year on the power of her tour, on the economic effect of this tour, the u.s. travel association estimates that she added more than $5 billion to state economies, and, you know, we also have women breaking glass ceilings like the first female ceo of banco de brazil. she's number 24. >> you interviewed philanthropist melinda gates who came in tenth on the list about the state of female leadership. what did she have to say? >> she had a lot to say. for as many women on this list, we are still not there yet in so many parts of the world when it comes to women in leadership. just look at the g-20. you have ursula van der lin and we talk about why isn't

they have admitted they will be easing, but christine lagarde was trying to push back do you think shethrow in the towel in the not so distant future? iain: i think so. that week, it was strange that the fed was pushing back with the economy holding up. when you look at europe, you have got anemic growth and inflation slowing at an even faster pace than in the u.s. i would not be surprised if we see the ecb pivot and look toward more easing next year. the market is already pricing that in. paul: how much risk do i want in terms of the curve in 2024? iain: you want to be thinking about the upside and downside in yields. you now have central banks which have pretty much told us they are done barring a big surprise in the data and that they want to ease policy. they believe the next move will be lower yields lower rates and that should be good for the bond market. we have moved a long way in a short space of time. you want bonds but also the capacity to buy bonds. buying bonds and yields makes sense to us at the moment, owning high-quality fixed income. if you can get corporate bonds with

christine lagarde is a very different central bank governor than jay powell. determined and when we look at the earnings picture in q3, different from the u.s.. 10% decline in earnings with a lot of companies as shooing negative guidance so that doesn't look that great. when we look to asia, i think there are more opportunities there especially in countries that are responsible for a lot of the demand for chips. lastly, australia has seen a strong rebound. i don't know if that's going to continue into the new year. i don't see the commodity demand really giving them the breadth the companies there needed to do well. not when growth is slowing down across developed and emerging markets. paul: i'm looking at the s&p 500 earnings estimates and were looking for 12% growth next year. are you comfortable with that kind of growth or do you think there is earnings risk that could be a headwind for this market? >> i think there is earnings risk. we always see pretty bewley and expectations when the consensus is a soft landing by a recession. i think it sort of similar