lee carter, chuck rocha are back with us. lee, 10% of the voters will vote for the first time.hat is guesstimate. a lot of them are for trump. will that be enough for a win? >> i think it is important we look at likely voters issue here. when we look at polls, we're looking at likely voters. that is people that voted before. a lot of polls show it is so close, statistical dead heat in iowa. if he pulls out this many people not considered likely voters we would be surprise how much he does win by in iowa. david: chuck, i get the sense there are a lot of americans, not just republicans, democrat as well, sat out last couple elections who said they weren't enthusiastic about anybody. trump and bernie sanders for that matter gives them something to be enthusiastic about, don't they? >> last weekend i was in iowa. it reminded me eight years ago working for john edwards. we were focused on hillary clinton. we never saw barack obama coming. he was getting people that weren't being called likely caucus-goers. you made a good point, doesn't show up in polling when you have new people sh