we also had positive comments from rich clarida.lix: rich clarida talking about why he's kind of confused that real yields are low, and the bond yields help stabilize the markets. equities still heavy. part of that is going to be earnings. it is the 10 year you really want to focus on, plus the dollar now climbing versus going lower after tirade is comments -- after clarida's comments. 1.19% is where we are sitting on the 10 year. it hit 1.12% at one point earlier today. guy: and we saw a pretty big bounce off the back of that. the services data what i have it expectations -- well ahead of expectations. as i said in the intro, european equities continue to climb higher. the real question is can these equity markets tolerate higher rates, and are those rates going to come higher earlier than we anticipated? adam pozen, who's going to be joining us a little later in the show, spoke to the vice chair of the fed a little earlier on about that rate trajectory. >> if the outlook for inflation in the outlook for on them limit i summarized

clarida: excellent point. first and foremost, i think the direct impact of the currently policy mix and impressive recovery in the u.s. is that we are exporting some demand to the rest of the world. clearly, as we expand faster than the rest of the world, some of that differential shows up in our imports. i think that is a relevant factor. the other thing that i very cognizant of that we look at in our meetings with central bankers, different countries in different regions of the global economy are in much different places in terms of vaccinations, and that is going to lead to some disparity in recovery and the profile of global growth. hopefully not for too much longer, but that has been a fact of life, certainly this year. you know, term premium, which reflects uncertainty about the outlook, other countries that are tied to the dollar in their financial markets, they have a spread over dollar rate, dollar rates are lower now, so that should not be a problem for most countries. the interesting thing is it was

clarida's speech later. the virus. i'm looking at yields in the price of oil moments ago down to new weakness. jonathan: nominal yield right now, 1.1522%. you mentioned the real yield, record lows in today's session once again. crude, keep an eye on the lows yesterday. right now, $69.19. tom: let's go to one narrow. swiss franc speaks volumes, confirming this tentativeness. jonathan: just how live is this jackson hole meeting? how much attention should we be paying to this jackson hole meeting? vice chair rich clarida, if he takes the same line of governor brainard, i think we can look through it all to september. if he takes a similar line to governor waller, we've got a very interesting set up going into payrolls friday. tom: i would call that less than likely, but we will see. we will have full coverage of that, particularly bloomberg economics. the overlay here, and at least the analysis is all of this angst is about the new pandemic. lisa: the idea that the delta variant is gaining steam, creating new shutdowns in

richard clarida do, the vice -- fed vice chairman is speaking.s he keep jackson hole alive, lisa? after the government cannot and port freezing cold water on it -- governor came out and poured freezing cold water on it. you think someone wants to take a vacation in jackson hole? [laughter] coming up, marvin barth. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer, my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break

rich fara talking about the condition desk rich clarida talking about -- rich clarida talking about thea rate hike maybe being there i the end of the year. steve jacobson -- dean jakobson -- steen jakobsen will join us. this is bloomberg. ♪ so...i know you and george were struggling with the possibility of having to move. how's that going? well we found a way to make bathing safer with a kohler walk-in bath. it has the lowest step-in of any bath. it has handrails, a wide door, and textured surfaces. so it gives you peace of mind. and you would love the heated backrest -and the whirlpool jets -and the bubblemassage. and it was installed quickly and conveniently by a kohler-certified installer. a kohler-authorized dealer walked us through every step in the process and made us feel completely comfortable in our home. and, yes, it's affordable. looking good, george! we just want to spend as much time as possible in our home, and with our grandkids. they're going to be here any minute for their weekly spa day. ooh, that bubblemassage! have fun! stay in the home and life you've built for year

next, federal reserve it vice chair richard clarida talks about the u.s. economy with the peterson institute for international economics and this is 50 minutes. >> hello everyone and welcome back to the petersons institute pretty. [inaudible]. for host a speech then on the record discussion with vice chair of board of governors and the honorable richard clarida. and this is in the moment to that doctor richard clarida for his opening speech. is now posted on the website and of course, the entire program is being streamed live and will be available on the website and other public places from the moment it is finished. richard clarida began as for year term as vice chair of the governors and 2017 and in 2018. and and ended in january of 2022. and doctor richard clarida is professor of economics and national affairs from university where he talked in 2018 and many of my colleagues at peterson, have study with her had the privilege to work with doctor richard clarida. and this was during a period of time of colombian also. [inaudible]. and author to many impor

bailey: i would share rich clarida's puzzle at that point.ou have to then ask yourself the question, is the market taking a different view on growth prospects? it's it -- is it saying we are just not as optimistic about growth prospects? then you have to start saying, are they assuming things about further waves of covid, for instance? the spread of the delta variant? i don't know whether they are doing that are not because we can't quite extract that from them. you have to take those sorts of views. what i would say however, they are consistent with the view that the inflation will be temporary. that is broadly consistent. that to us is a point of consistency. but like rich clarida, we have sat here and said, hmm, ok. don't see quite where the news is there. guy: you brought up inflation, so let's talk about it. you have significantly upgraded where you think the peak is going to be. you do see them falling back towards target. gov. bailey: yes. guy: given the scale of that revision, how confident are you in the shape of how inflation is goi

there is an interesting speech earlier this week from richard clarida in, the vice chairman of the fedand one of the architects of the new framework announced last fall, and he explicitly said that the unemployment rate hitting 3.8% would be consistent with him for the first rate hike. we do not know the timeframe between the beginning of the tapering of asset purchases and rate increases, but given that unemployment is at 5.4% and we had a big improvement, that could come relatively soon. it also depends on what others think. i think there was a perception that calrida was more on the debtors -- clarida was more of the devilish side compared to others. it is hard to say. the language in the fed statement is they will not begin raising interest rates until they reach maximum unemployment. other than that, there's not a lot of guidance. caroline: some of the slack we are seeing in the labor market with participation rates, 5% sounds really good but how many people are going back into the labor force? some people still have to be caregivers as we face the delta variant. matthew: right, s

. >> so this tim richard clarida was totally personal. i am who i am, because of the things i chose to study and i chose to study it by accident, even chemical engineering. i have no idea. i don't know why i was unaware of this, this was not an option. this not something that peoplese talk about. but obviously they're entered names out there but most black people indefinitely for people and definitely left for people, lisa and i was going up never were presented these opportunities. reasons like now for you and there i happen to be the most, i was a girl and i was in literally women and girls do not study engineering.. don't you know that. and the teachers, they didn't even give, they gave her they tracked you to something else. and joking way but is true. you can be a teacher and educator or whatever it is, you can be a life scientist pretty good through the biology, it is not engineering. specifically male white career guide i literally have had access to working at the best companies out there pretty and in ways that was real. i gradua

jonathan: tomorrow, vice chair clarida with a speech. payrolls friday. does he bring jackson hole alive again after governor brainard poured some freezing cold water over it? tom: are you saying you need a trip out to jackson hole? jonathan: no, i won't be around for jackson hole. the s&p 500 futures up 0.4%. nobody needs to see that. yields higher by a basis point to -- buy a basis point. . euro-dollar positive. euro-dollar, $1.1885. lisa: that was kind of ominous, "i won't be around for that." you will be on vacation, not a serious thing. jonathan: no one took it that way. [laughter] lisa: let's move on. 10:00 a.m., we get u.s. june factory orders and durable goods orders. interesting to see the demand from factories. also, whether we start to see some of the inventories built up, whether orders continue to be strong. really a key measure on some of the supply chain disruptions. are they starting to ease intend them with what we saw in the ism manufacturing survey? using a little bit, but still a good trajectory. throughout the day, we will get total v

our thanks to vice president clarida. a revealing interview on a day we have a lot of focus on the fed. coming up, reaction and analysis to what he just told us. restaurant stacks have been in rally mode how will the labor shortage and delta variant affect the sector. plus, zoom soared in 2020. it hasn't moved so much this year can this stay-at-home play make a comeback next week zoom earnings. basicaly just provides the answer to the question: what if? with live better u, my 'what ifs' were erased. ♪ ♪ >>> welcome back to "power lunch. clarida didn't kill the power rally. there are session highs. following fed chair powell's speech and what we heard from vice chair clarida, rick santelli is tracking the action in chicago rick >> reporter: that was a great interview. steve, my hat is off to you. you asked the important question, with all this fiscal liquidity why do we need an extra fire hose on i don't know and all my emails and texts are as follows with stocks basically near or at all-time highs why would the fed contin

shery: let's delve into those comments by richard clarida confirming he is on board with moving up the date of the fed's first rate hike in the start of its bond tapering process. kathleen hays joins us with more perspective on the spirit how significant is it to hear such comments from the number two at the fed? kathleen: you have the fed chair. he is number one. vice chair, number two, john williams, new york fed president, number three, they are the core of the fed, the ballast. when you see -- he says in prepared remarks, when he says rate hike conditions being met by the end of 2022, paving the way for a hike, listen. >> it is the outlook -- if the outlook's turn out to be the actual outcomes for inflation and unemployment realized over the forecast horizon, i believe these three necessary conditions for raising the funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022. kathleen: vice chair richard clarida saying he is in favor of announcing plans to taper this year and starting the process next year. the money markets, they are now signaling more than ever that yellow lot. not the blue

anna: that was fed vice chairman richard clarida talking about the u.s.nomy and raising rates during an event at the peterson institute for international economics. if those comments that may be excited some in the market this morning. chris turner, ing head of fx strategy, maybe was one of them. nice to have you with us. we saw a pop in the dollar, a bit of a pickup in yields on the back of these richard clarida comments. does it reassure you that the fed is maybe on its path towards the taper despite the delta variant? chris: yes, it does. i think it was a very important speech yesterday, mostly very close to kind of jay powell, vice chair seen as quite dovish. the speech was pretty explicit really. the fed has presented a conditional tightening situation, conditions need to be met. he eventually said by the end of 2022, those conditions will be fulfilled, in theory, and we will be ready to tighten. i think those specific comments from a dub as opposed to dutch dove -- as opposed to -- specific comments from a dove -- mark: he is known as being dovish,

richard clarida. tom: it is going to be interesting.ld's in paris after spending $41 on a martini. jonathan: needed a cheeseburger after that, did you? tom: i thought the people at amex would be upset, so we did a nombre deux. jonathan: you get that french out. i can rely on lisa to look at the bond market now. do you want to look at nominals or reals stateside, or do you want to look at europe? lisa: i want to look at nominal yields across the board because i think real yields are confused, looking at the chips, and the statistic that ira jersey throughout. the fed owns 30% of the chips market -- the tips market in the united states. but are we talking enough about the distortions the fed is creating with their ongoing bond purchases, and whether they can stop? what happens if they stop and there is a material dislocation in the market? jonathan: so the next time someone says what is the bond market telling us, will you have a different answer to whom, gloom, and real fears about the future in a, growth? lisa: no, i will still have tho

that was vice chair clarida yesterday. pretty straightforward stuff.side tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your equity market. we advance seven on the s&p, off session highs. yields in a basis point. had a little look at 1.12% in yesterday's session, then bounced back off the back of a really hot, strong ism. euro-dollar unchanged basically, positive 0.09%. tom: and the vix speaks to a resilient market, 17.76. jon and lisa have also to things to do in washington. with jet sick patrick of blue -- with jack fitzpatrick of bloomberg government, a very subtle shift occurred in biden politics yesterday. that is the reaffirmation of the center of the democratic party, the important election in ohio that left the progressives down in flames and the center holds. explain that. jack: yes, this was an interesting race in the cleveland area in which the establishment candidate that did end up winning the more -- did end up winning. the more progressive aligned member, i am not sure how the race speaks to national politics . there's a bit o

jonathan: that speaks from richard clarida to tomorrow. that is a big one. the board of governors come with governor waller coming out yesterday. tom: this goes to our interviews that we have had with the vice chairman. some of those interviews rather heated. this is the great monetary economist of leadership of the fed. powell is not an economist. many of the others are very qualified, and rich clarida drives a theoretical bust at the fed. lisa: the federal reserve and how they are going to react. my question is, are we starting to see a cooling off in some of the pressure, particularly within inflation. yesterday highlighting a supply chain disruption. pressuring growth in a new way, jon. jonathan: do you want to lisa: hit tencent quickly echo lisa: i want to hit spiritual opium -- quickly? lisa: i want to hit spiritual opium. tom: where do i get in on this? jonathan: this is the close in hong kong at 6%. lisa: spiritual opium and electronic drugs. a state owned media outlet of china included a criticism of videogames as such. honestly, any parent who has

look at richard clarida does speech from a couple of days to get -- look at richard clarida's speecha couple of days ago. he highlighted inflation. there are hawks and doves in the market. i think the balance of risk to higher inflation is something we had before the report, but certainly this report particularly, what might highlighted, average hourly earnings reinforces the risk on the balance of risk being towards higher inflation. michael: jon ferro -- tom: jason furman with a blistering tweet, he calls it a wonderful set of data. neil dutta says this is a massive start to q3. jonathan: is what we all wanted to see. jeffrey rosenberg of blackrock, great to catch up. 943,000 the number, 870,000 was the estimate. an upside surprise and a nice upward revision. it means nasdaq futures are lower .33% come s&p 500 futures firmer .1%. your 10-year gilts up about -- your tenure yield -- your 10 year yield up five or six basis points. that is quite a turnaround. tom: i will dovetail this report into what we see in the mohamed el-erian s8 in the washington post. it is not that he has to mo

for the record clarida says he expects most is transitory but singling those two things out. if i could mention one other thing at 10:00 ism service indicator came in well above expectations, 64.5 was the number,ible, out there which was huge prices paid came in very high as well so more inflation in that pipeline there but also the employment index came in also very strong as the market prepares for that big friday jobs report >> there are a lot of cross-current on the economy and fed speak. you get more thisweek and data as you say steve, thanks as always. appreciate you being on the program >> sure >> cutting through some of that as we watch what's happening in stocks and then you also have as we talk about what robinhood is doing. i don't know if dr. j. is still with me. but thanks for coming on as well there are a number of other stocks hitting new highs, interesting, because our gang is owns a bunch of them joe, chipotle as a new high. do you stay with it. >> yes. >> or take some profits in an uneven tape? >> no, scott, i'm going to stay with it, the consumer remains in

certainly there is an increased probability that the clarida views may be correct. jonathan: that is the core question. do we need one more good report or two? doesn't make a difference? governor wallace at the federal reserve said he talked to cnbc. i think you could be ready to do an announcement by september. that depends on what the next two job supports do. we have had one. i expect to be more confident in assessing the rate of progress once we have data for september, when consumption patterns should be settling into a post-pandemic normal. francis, your view on this? if september 3 you get a solid print, september 22 we are on. if you need to wait for the september data in the kind of things you describe, which one do you think is worth listening to more closely? frances: this is a fed that wants to taper. whether it is september or october, that does not change the grand scheme of things. listen to how the fed is talking to us. it is just a minute sure as to which individual month it is. even though i have a lot of concerns about downside risk, the fed can s

in a speech on wednesday, the fed's number two in charge, vice chair richard clarida, said interest ratesin 2023. and he was joined by two other top officials in signalling that the central bank might soon start winding down the amount of cash it's pumping into the bond markets. that hit shares on wall street. samira hussain in new york has more. the comments by the vice—chair of the federal reserve that the current pace of the economic recovery could mean interest rates could be going up by 2023 is noteworthy especially when you couple it with comments made earlier by two other central bank policy that they would like to see the federal reserve start reducing its massive bond buying programme. it is a sign that the fence could be looking at easing its accommodated monetary policy much sooner than it and, frankly, many others had originally thought. all of this depends on incoming economic data in the next few weeks, including labour reports, inflation readings and, of course, consumer sentiment. and it also really depends on the virus. the delta variant of covid—i9 is weekly spreading in

. >> we just heard from the vice chair of the federal reserve, richard clarida, talking about their potentialcould do a 2021 announcement on tapering, a 2023 left off. how will that affect some of the banks in your region? >> that is probably the most important bit of angst in the next 12 months. not only taper, but also the lift off. if i think one layer behind that, why will any of those rate decisions be taken? it is because growth is good. would we do start seeing in the case of better growth, higher rates, in most parts of the world, growth comes back in a more meaningful manner. [indiscernible] probably the other more important one is the quality. growth washes away all the -- [indiscernible] i would say that is pretty positive. [indiscernible] we are very confident that singapore banks become one of the -- [indiscernible] rishaad: very quickly, who is best in the digital space? who is making the most of the fintech revolution? >> every country, every market has one or two lead players. i would say very comfortably -- we go market by market. on the flipside, we would have what i would c

we heard from richard clarida a couple of days ago, the chair and vice chair are looking for more substantialrogress. nevertheless, that's what they want to see. that is why this is important. one thing we are going to see tomorrow is that while white unemployment has come down, unemployment for people of color have also come down. but, black and hispanic unemployment still stay very high. on the political side, joe manchin from west virginia, who has been such a key vote for democrats, he is urging powell to start tapering, citing inflation risks. there will be a lot of things that come out of this jobs report that are going to be discussed just hours from now. >> kathleen hays. let's get more on the recovery implications. i want to bring in nicole webb, senior vice president of the wealth enhancement group. talk us through the noise. you rightly say a lot of solutions, a lot of things have been thrown at the pandemic. recovery, the delta variant complicating things. what is the path forward? >> thank you for reading through my notes. it has been -- we were faced with an unparalleled obstacl

rich clarida driving some of that move as well.ut today's figure certainly part of that narrative. a very strong number. earlier we heard from the u.s. labor secretary marty walsh. he weighed in on these numbers. sec. walsh: we are seeing our economy moving forward. it was not just leisure and hospitality, but in government, education, and manufacturing. so we are starting to see different sectors getting busy as well. i think in some sectors we are definitely going to need to see higher wage growth for people to come back to work, but right now, all signs are incrementally going in a positive directions. guy: a strong number. in a moment we are going to hear from the president. right now we are going to hear from geoff yu, senior emea strategist at bny mellon. what does it mean for investors? geoff: for investors, it means we are on track for further clarity of the tapering. so jackson hole becomes -- for the rest of the summer. correlations have been working around them of late, but overall i think this is going to be a pretty be

we will talk about that with lena, after hearing from richard clarida yesterday.he dollar index moving down but not much. nymee at $69.13. let's get back to the bank of england. the central bank warned modest tightening will soon be needed as inflation is expected to exceed 4% later this year. earlier we spoke to andrew bailey who discussed inflation expectations. >> a big issue here is inflation expectations. that gets us to the question, i'll be going to see second round affects, are we going to see it built into wage bargaining, are we going to see it become more persistent? that is where we have to act. monetary policy cannot solve the world's shortage of semiconductor chips. we cannot solve that problem. the key question is, to all of those things, the second round affects which causes inflation, and we have to act. matt: joining us now is lena komileva, g plus economics chief economist. there is a lot to talk about. what did you think of the slightly more hawkish turn? lena: it was definitely more hawkish today. we are moving from an environment where centra

the reopening, as richard clarida has said, when you're reopening a $20 trillion economy all at one timeere is demand for the labor all at once. it will take several months to work its way out. lisa: before we got these releases you said you were more focused on the employment market because that is where the fed focus was. i want to pair these ideas, the fact we are getting progress on the labor market to encourage the fed to tighten with ppi coming in. 7.8% year-over-year for ppi final demand. these are astronomical numbers. what is your big take away from these reports? brett: if you give me one piece of information, what was the -- lisa: ex food and energy trade was 0.9% month over month. brett: still fairly high, so the wholesale margins are doing well. the big thing from the inflation standpoint, the ppi you can really see it. transportation costs are a big problem. warehouse and transportation costs have skyrocketed. that reflects a strong demand for goods and lack of transportation to carry them to the market, where the biggest softness in inventory is. from the inflation standpo

i am looking at a vix 17.46 which brushes off richard clarida do. then a swiss 20 year, which i featured in the 5:00 hour, and you tell me. jon: we are not doing much in the fx market. your euro is 1.1835. lisa: there's a consistent theme of pound a strength and we have seen this as the vaccination rate gets on track and as the recovery gains esteem. it will be interesting to see how it's inflected in the banks of england rate decision. we are not exciting a policy change in any material way, at least on the headline rate. we will be getting press medications of how they taper their bond -- mitigations of how they taper their bond guidance and how tapered rates could go. i'm sure you will go later on into this and the show. 830 a.m. time, jobless claims, these are noisy numbers. market bridges and pins look for any clues for the u.s. labor market because you have rich clarity yesterday coming out and saying basically this is the metric to look for. he does see progress made enough and is consistent enough with potentially raising rates as early as 2

clarida is not saying it should be in september.s long as the leadership is looking at it as we are not ready yet, they may be the minutes aren't going to suggest anything about an earlier taper. what we might get the idea of the fed telling us something about how they will taper. you can see here the last time they tapered, this is the treasuries they own, it took two years. will they do it faster this time? a lot of fed officials in those pictures talking about me be we should do it in eight months. that is something we might get out of the minutes this afternoon. alix: mike at, thanks a lot. you look at new zealand, and there back on a taper talks. they had one case and they had to end up shutting down. president biden is going to unveil plans today that will give more americans coronavirus vaccine booster shots. the plan calls for high-risk groups including health-care workers and the elderly to get a third shot as soon as next month. here with the latest is max nisen, bloomberg opinion columnist. what are the details we are goi

this is august 4, when vice-chairman richard clarida said he could see that as a strong possibility.e fed starts talking about the possibility of raising rates, the dollar goes up. at this point, there's pretty much nothing more to do except talk about raising rates. they can't cut them anymore. they may delay it because of covid, but if they are going to be talking about tapering, it will be interesting to see what happens with the dollar and with interest rates as the fed goes forward. alix: perfect set up. thanks very much. so what was the question mark last week was what we see for the dollar. we are seeing that come off a little bit, but the question was , is there a safe haven trade? or was this really a fed minute taper conversation rally? joining us to break it down is kristen macleod, barclays cohead of global fx sales. in order to understand what we do with the fed into jackson hole, we have to understand what we did last week. what was leading the rally for the dollar? kristen: i think what we have seen in the past we can have is a shift from the market trading for growth

lisa: it is especially important in light of vice rich clarida basically emphasizing that they are getting closer. they are moving to this. jonathan: getting closer to a deal in paris as well. lisa, i know you want an update from this as well. this from the associated press, lionel messi traveling to france , a person with knowledge of the negotiations has told the associated press. there you go. tom: take the redeye. jonathan: and let's stay there for the rest of the summer. lisa: amen. [laughter] jonathan: lisa wants us gone, clearly. it is a beautiful one here in new york. your equity market unchanged. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president joe biden's big plans for the economy are about to pass their first meijer legislative test. the group of democratic and republican senators are prepared to approve the infrastructure program. the vote is set to begin like this morning. democrats will be able to bypass republicans on the next part, a three point $5 trillion positive resolution that would expand health coverage, childcare, and education bene

we are all kind of in the dark, and i think rich clarida is also a bit in the dark. a big advocate of inflation being anchored. it is going to be very difficult for the fed because they want to project certainty on where inflation is going to go. the fact of the matter is they don't know, we don't know. inflation is a very difficult thing to get your head around, and a very difficult thing to understand, so it is a big gas. we will have to see. some of those papers i think should address that next week. jonathan: we've got to leave it there. jim b anke -- jim bianco of bianco research. when you leave, you get to say what you really think. lisa: you can actually have a point of view instead of just talk and these bland academic phrases. jonathan: i remember hearing stories about time spent at the bank of england, and governor king told everybody you can say what you like about qe, but you are not allowed to say it doesn't work. there was always that leadership that said here are the parameters. go talk about whatever you want. tom: i just had a nightmare vision. you,

i wonder how much this jobs report is going to inform that, especially after fed vice chair rich clarida came out and said it would just take a couple of meetings to really get a sense of fact that they could taper sooner. 8:30 a.m., this payrolls report. we have not been talking about income and salaries and how much we may actually start to see wages rise on a wholesale level. we have talked about labor force participation, but wages will remain in the forefront as an indicator for future inflation. at 10:00 a.m., president joe biden planning to speak. . about this labor market report how much does he do -- speak about this labor market report. how much does he plan to dovetail it into this weekend, the infrastructure bill? does he indicate some sort of cohesiveness in his party that has been increasingly bifurcated among the progressives and the centrists? i want to talk p.m. we get the real yield -- at 1:00 p.m. we get "the real yield". we also get the baker hughes rig count. jonathan: thank you, lisa. lisa: both are important. but with u.s. oil and gas rigs, they have maintained dis

powell, in his press conference, going to lean over to the former dean of columbia economics, richard clarida -- which of these series do i use? that is the traditional mode, isn't it? bruce: what they will continue to hit is two basis points. one, they see the inflation of this year is having a big transitory inverter -- transitory element, but at the same time, they say look, we do understand we are wrong. if inflation does pick up in a more sustained way, we will respond to that. it is the issue about -- where does that shift take place? i do think the fed has a lot of tolerance for letting core inflation. by the way, tom, we had 54 4% and employment rate last friday. that 5.4% on employment rate last friday. to talk about the fed staying on hold here for another 18 months or so is an unusually different reaction function from what we have seen in the past. lisa: bruce, how much are you counting on president biden's build back better, build back better, bill beck america plan, the $3.5 trillion plan, the outline that did move through the senate last night? bruce: well, it is hard to put a

other fed officials here on cnbc we have bostic coming up, pat harper, loretta mester and richard clarida on this show tomorrow you're going to want to tune in, tyler. >> a lot of fed speak tomorrow steve, give us a sense of -- i mean, everybody knows a taper is coming, it would seem. how important is the timing of the announcement or the hinting or the winking to the markets, or is it already all in there? >> reporter: i mean, it's a good question we can't survey everybody in the market, tyler, but if you don't know that a taper is being discussed, it could well happen october, november or december. i'm afraid you probably should give in your license for holding any stocks at all. >> thank you >> reporter: you should be banned from providing any investment advice or even actually holding any assets sort of thing >> steve, thank you very much. well put >>> treasury yields on the move ahead of the annual summit rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. >> reporter: intraday right around 1:00 eastern rates dropped a bit. that's when we completed the note option, $183 billion in coupon s

conversation but i think what the market is not, is not really taking into account is the fact that claridaaid yesterday, they expect rates to go up in late 2022 and 2023. they expect to taper end of this year and i don't think the market is pricing what that really means into it. i will stick with 4400. i might proven to be wrong but i'm sticking with 44. charles: all right. by the way as you were describing all the ups and downs i'm thinking you know what? i think kenny was one hell of a hopscotch player when he was a kid. rob what are you modeling for? >> i don't really play that game, charles. i don't take the s&p 500. i learned a long time ago i could do much better analyzing individual stocks. the s&p is trading at 22 times forward earnings. a lot of mediocrity in there. i would stay away from the s&p. look at companies like facebook and learn something guys called peg ratio, price to earnings growth. every dollar you pay for growth much more profitable if you can buy companies growing faster than the s&p. facebook trading at 20% discount on that metric. i would rather own companies l

really want to go to the voice and place of esther george in a washington fixated by powell, brainard, claridat is different outing kansas city, isn't it? michael: this is one of those times when the fed bank presidenta add a lot because they are on the -- fed bank presidents can add a lot because they are on the ground in their district. they can see the course of the economy through the disease, and whether or not inflation is going to be a major issue. if esther george, who has always been an inflation hawk, isn't particularly concerned, then there's probably not a lot of concern out in the kansas city district. tom: the inflation us to -- the inflationistas are in retreat, but define a hawk right now. i don't think we know, do we? michael: it is angels dancing on the head of a pin. tom: that was almost the name of the show. [laughter] michael: a hawk is someone who wants the paper sooner. right now we are talking december, november, so if you're talking about a september announcement, it doesn't make that much difference. they are all kind of in the same boat at this point. there's less di

this morning the vice chairman, richard clarida, he expects under his current projections for inflationnd employment, commencing policy normalization in 2023 would be entirely consistent with our new flexible average inflation targeting framework. essentially saying buckle up. it could happen sooner rather than later. but is the blueprint correct? the fed will have to telegraph it if he is right tapering sometime this year, real soon although i personally don't think they have enough data to do it. certainly not before the jackson hole meeting. for all of the talk that the fed is slowing down asset purchases, that there is no hard and fast rule for central banks you know, to sort of at some point stop the accommodation you know there is no level folks, there is no real precedent for central banks to stop buying. i want you to take a look at the bank of japan. they went from owning their own government debt, 7%, to well over 50%. keep in mind they also own a big chunk of their own stock market. so with all that in mind, yes the s&p came in today hitting a new record 42 times this year. t

i'll make that bet every day >> even if clarida is correct and we meet conditions to raise rates as he said yesterday by the end of next year that still holds if the fed raises rates >> listen, i am positive that -- i've never thought that the fed was anything but smart, okay i always used to think it was funny when there was a guy out of college saying bernanke was dumb in the last crisis. he has a ph.d. studying a cries he is and the recoveries for 30 years. he is dumb we all make mistakes all i say is the fed wants to create inflation any remain accommodative as they can. they want stable price pricing, full employment. there is a ways to go they're going to wait. i'm not getting bearish on equities because it could be 2024 or '25. not q3 '22 when they raise rates. we should wait and assume they want inflation and wait for that to correct, as opposed to getting in front of one or two comments by different people out there. that's what i have learned so far by following them is assume they're going to be come lative longer than you think >> just keep kicking the ball through the goal

another one coupleo coming one richard clarida. and they maybe ready to vote in taper and may be ready to vote in dissent if they don't get that in september. and that's something powell has to finesse >> jim, jump in here i know you have a question >> yeah, steve always good to get your insight on this because you're the best fed watcher i know i watched jay powell. >> thank you. >> i don't watch him as religiously as you do. i got to tell you, as a market participant, i felt he was putting his arm around my shoulders and saying doesn't worry let's get an ice cream i mean, it was focused on employment we're nowhere near and the indicators aren't showing it and really doubling down on transitory the question to you is, from a tone point of view, do you think i'm reading him right? did you read it that way i mean the tone was so dovish, it seemed -- it was remarkable to me. >> yeah, to an extent. i would like to remind you, jim there was a scene i believe in good fellas where the guy put his arm around joe peshi in the basement do y

that would be further down the road now, in an exclusive cnbc interview, the fed vice chair, richard claridalowed up the speech by saying he expects the economic to meet the fed's condition for tapering >> we have had 800,000 jobs per month for the last three months, and so i expect that those gains will continue in the fall. if that happens, i would also support commencing reduction in the pace of our purchases later this year. >> while powell was careful about pinning down the taper timing, several presidents said they had growing concerns inflation could prove to be a more permanent problem and that the fed's asset purchases were doing more harm than good, but most were united in saying they did not think the delta variant posed much of an economic threat >> that was really interesting, steve. stay with us let's bring in a former fed insider who can give us insight into the central bank's thinking richard fisher, former fed president and contributor with us thank you very much for being here after this very important week, especially as it pertained to your area of expertise. i want to ju

in a speech on wednesday — the fed's number two in charge — vice chair richard clarida — said interestpumping into the bond markets. that hit shares on wall street. samira hussain in new york has more. the comments by the vice chair of the federal reserve, that the current pace of the economic recovery could mean interest rates will start going up by 2023 is noteworthy, especially when you couple it with comments made earlier by two other central bank policymakers, that they would like to see the federal reserve start reducing its massive bond buying programme. it is a sign that the fed could be looking at using its monetary policy much sooner than it, and frankly many others, had originally thought. of course, all of this depends on incoming economic data in the next few weeks, including labour reports, inflation readings and, of course, consumer sentiment. and it also really depends on the virus. the delta variant of covid—19 is quickly spreading in many parts of the us, and that could derail the country's current economic recovery. if your screen time has shot up in the past year, y

programming will continue next, as we take you to comments from federal reserve vice chair richard claridaout the u.s. economic outlook at the peterson institute for international economics. it has just gotten underway, live here on c-span. >> he taught from 1988 to 2018.

we have pat harker and rich clarida and fed chair powell >> he's going to be dovish the other peoplecop, bad cop have come out with, you know, they let us know that we're on notice. but his job is to stay stable and day dovish my question is what do you think he really thinks if that wasn't his role do you think he's being swayed by arguments to taper sooner >> i do, joe and i don't know if i agree with you on that. even despite your support for the leis maniac movement >> which there's no cure it's treatable but there's no actual -- >> you have to wake up in the morning and hear, you have to wake up in the morning and hear about fed policy and economic policy to satisfy. but here's the deal. i think powell has a lot of appreciation for what these hawks are saying i don't know that it comes out and says it today, but if he says, we've had a substantial further progress or we're very close to the substantial further progress we've been looking for, that would be a signal that he's ready to go. and i think that, you know, joe, we've talked a lot about this. a lot of ways he can set thi

mary macleod, ella baker, clarida scott king.en, that legacy lives on. they have joined what the scriptures called that great cloud of witnesses. they are encouraging us by their example. listen to that great cloud of witnesses. as they insist that the right to vote is a sacred right. and those who would dare to deny it to any eligible american voter commits an attack. -- attack on our democracy. the iconic leader of the national council of negro women says this, when you are a black woman, you seldom get to do just what you want to do. but you always do what you have to do. today, black women are here to do what we have to do. and that is to demand an end to the onslauaught of attacks on voting rights. we are here to demand that the senate take courage from somewhere to pass the john lewis voting rights act, and yes, we are here to demand statehood. -- demand statehood for washington, d.c. in honor of that great cloud of black women witnesses, and because of our own political power requiring it , and in the interest of a far bet