i think we have a pretty good expert to talk about it, claudia sahm and michael kantrowitz. my take on government, please don't get involved in housing, please. all that and so much more on "making money." charles: all right, so as you know by now our markets did open higher, sort of a sigh of relief. the bank of japan saying okay we're going to take it easy. we'll go in details just why japan looms so large over our markets. meanwhile though the stock market swoon, it triggered a big move, right in 401(k)s. in fact 401(k)s traded the most they traded since march of 2020. so at that pandemic selloff in march people were making big moves in the 401(k), they did it again. this is which really want to help the audience out here a lot. as this was going on there were buyers, hedge funds among them. in fact the most hedge fund buying since going back to march earlier this year. you see very few times do hedge funds move this quickly. why did they move in? it wasn't just hedge funds, institututional investors overall. here is the scorecard monday, retail investors net sellers of a

as mentioned, claudia sahm is with us. along with steve liesman.ne swank is also here, chief economist. and ernie is director of economics at the yale budget lab and former chief economist at the white house. and kcnbc's rick santelli. claudia, if i may start with you. give us the latest your thinking on not necessarily the rate cut question but what's going on with the economy, is it a recession? >> we're not in a recession when you look broadly across all the indicators, not just in the labor market, consumers, production, income. we are in a place where things have slowed, so we're not in contraction territory, but we can do better than avoiding a recession. what is very worrisome and today's unemployment report shows the direction of travel, the momentum is not good. we are pointed towards what would be recessionary dynamics. >> you put it best on wednesday when you said the fed should go ahead and cut. if they didn't cut this week, which they did not, you warned they might have to cut more rapidly in the meetings to come. >> and it's pretty cl

sahm rule. i cannot wait to catch up with claudia on her sham rule joining us in five minutes -- sahm rule joiningt a final vote on how far the bond bullishness is able to extend. this market is casting its vote right now pretty negative. on the s&p 500, we are lower. on the nasdaq we are now. on the russell, aggressively lower. from new york city, good morning to you all. ♪ okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot with so much entertainment out there wouldn't it be great... ...if you could find what you want, all in one place? show me paris. xfinity internet customers can enjoy the ultimate entertainment experience and save on some of the biggest names

none other than claudia sahm with the sahm rule said be careful because of the increased labor supply. >> where does that increase labor supply come from, it's coming from immigration. this data was never structured to fit with an exploding pop plapgs growth like we have now and that's what problem is. >> we're almost out of time. if the jobs report next week shows that the unemployment rate holds or drops will that make any difference on september 18th ease? >> only to the extent that fed would go 25 instead of 50. 50 still has about a 35% chance of them going. >> excellent. jim, it's always a pleasure. we love to do floor hits together. deirdre, back to you and have a wonderful three-day weekend. >> rick, same to you, both of you. thank you so much for that. >>> still to come, intel going into power saving mode. lululemon cramping up and walgreens cannot get out of the red. we will dive deeper on these names teeto lchinhr sckun that's next. ♪ (alarm sound) ♪ amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen.

infamous claudia sahm indicator could trip. my guess you will be covering that tomorrow.ink we're in a recession. if we are, the fed has a lot of tools now that it didn't have before to fight that. so, what do we like? question, we like information technology, consumer staples. infrastructure, we see a lot of big investment happening in a.i., energy and defense, not to mention fiscal stimulus there is just a lot of stimulus and investment out there. so, yes, that's the sectors that we like right now. liz: a.i. today, tech is getting clobbered. particularly the chip-makers, nvidia, qualcomm, arm, the chip designer, we spoke to ray haas. you think this is a buying opportunity? >> i think it is. i think the good news for all those companies as you look underneath it at a huge investment that is coming up what we see different, this is a caution i would give as we keep having this talk about the federal reserve. the market and the experts were wrong as interest rates went up constantly saying we're going to have a recession. constantly thinking the economy was going to slow.

jonathan: always lucky to catch up with you, claudia sahm of new sentry advisors on the labor marketport , 24 is the survey at the moment. the meeting right now, 160,000, the previous number, 140. lisa: what do the numbers mean to the market? some say it matters more what the unemployment rate over the headline number because of what claudia was talking about, the adjustments in how do they fit in? jonathan: a preview of the jobs report coming up in the next hour. we will talk about the response of a federal budget, which makes me laugh because we don't have one, all of that and more, still to come. ♪ >> there has been a deterioration of the labor market in the u.s. >> should receive further weakening, the fed will be likely to step in. >> the fed essentially showing willingness against labor market risk. >> the fomc will have to do is wait to see what happens. >> indicators point to slow down but the markets are less concerned about that in the market is focusing on rate cuts. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. jonathan: t

coming up, helen becker and claudia sahm of new century advisors.rveillance." ♪ katie: futures regain their footing after nvidia's rocky reception yesterday. 30 minutes until the official start of trading. i'm katie greifeld. sonali: and i'm sonali basak. matt miller is off today, and bloomberg "open interest" starts now. katie: coming up, nvidia pays the price for lofty expectations. eeo jen-hsun