over of this cliff. but daunting name and the right this what exactly does this entailed one break down the potential damage and word of the day and give you a glaring example of the wasteful costs of political uncertainty all ready documented plus we have a potpourri of manufacturing data out some points to opposite directions for the u.s. and of who learn who of it points to negative. outcomes in europe now our guest will help us make sense of these ingredients and tell us why he thinks the u.s. recession is already baked into the cake let's get to today's capital account. so income obama and. under mitt romney are getting ready to face off in their first debate wednesday in the race for an old president thanks to weigh in bonsai for this clever depiction of who he is dead dead brother versus mitt the twit as they wrestle to convince the public of who to vote for both may be wrestling with how best to avoid letting people know they don't have a sound plan for cutting federal deficits at least not accor

problem number one is the fiscal cliff. it's the -- problem number two is the debt increase that would come the problem is the fiscal path is unsustainable and dangerous to america. .. >> we need to extend the debt ceiling and it's the fundamentals that will forever get rid of fiscal cliffs and sequesters. that is the best way to go. >> do you have anything to add? >> so the way that we got here to the fiscal was a bunch of cans getting kicked down the road. and they are and when in the wrong place at the wrong time. part of the fiscal clip is part of these cans at the end of the road. there is a good part of the clip, and that is the part that is throughout the rest of the ten-year budget window. something that we call -- you know, how the fiscal cliff later in the ten-year window would cause economic growth. that's very important hold onto because we have been in the habit of kicking the can down the road. it all happen in front of us and i am here to say that we shouldn't just kick the can down the road again. we shouldn

that's not wily coyote falling off the cliff. your site is going to move on taxes and a somber and we don't do this. >> doug, let me ask you a behavioral question. you think there's going to be people selling stock in advance of january 1st because they fear capital gains rates are going to rise quite >> am a tech site to imagine people believe are going to drop the fiscal cliff, a lot of the behavioral response depends on what is on people's minds yet at the end of this year people believe are going to go up the fiscal cliff, it will have people the tax motivating teams. if you have a bunch of appreciative stock, may be that apple two years ago, and if you consider cheerleading to the tax policy center, you know, you will have an incentive or capital gains rate is going to go up from its current 15% to 5% next year plus a new health farm taxes to on average realizing in december until waiting until next year. if you are highly compensated person or you run a firm that employs people who are highly compensated that you pay and bo

of this cliff. all right we get it now even ben bernanke the fed with all of his tools the fed can't compensate for this fiasco. is a fiscal cliff is an address as i have said i don't think our tools are strong enough to offset the effects of major fiscal shock. so we have to think about what to do in that in that contingency. well we just hope that dr bernanke keeps thinking because we think he and his cohorts have done enough with their tools already so if they won't try to offset the impact then that's fantastic in our view but what exactly is entailed in the fiscal cliff anyway what here is a very simple definition except expiration of the bush era tax cuts as well as numerous other temporary tax cuts credits and deductions and acted by obama and this is coupled with major cuts in spending now this will hit in january of two thousand and thirteen and according to some it could push the u.s. back into recession now that's a simple version but as you can see by exhibit a this lovely chart compiled

when i looked up into the cliff, i saw stacks of rock behind a little spall of the cliff that had stuck out and i realized there was a granary up there. i immediately started for it, climbing hand over hand up the cliff base. my breath tasted hot with discovery. i had found a secret. in past travels i had seen many granaries belonging to the anastasi but they had all been broken open by pot hunters or even by the residents themselves. this one had been built so no one would see it, like an attic accessed through a hidden floor. the structure was rectangular, like a cupboard. i touched its face with probing, diagnostic fingers, measuring it my eyes. 3 feet tall, 2 feet wide and 3 feet deep. i got up on my haunches and lightly dusted off the granaries roof which was undamaged. for 3,000 years not a breeze had entered this chamber, not an inkling of light. what tightly woven baskets were here, what woven textiles, what stockpile of cobalt blue and honey-colored seed corn left many years before the boom of spanish rifles. with my fingers i traced through the dust of fallen rock debris on th

you went right at the fiscal cliff. let's listen to what they said. >> if we do nothing, next year, you'll have the rate of growth slowed to somewhere like 3% to 5%. you'll have unemployment go up another 2% to around -- above 9% and 2 million more people will lose their jobs and we're doing nothing about it. >> it is very serious. i think the candidates know how serious it is. i think they're trying to avoid it, maybe in part because it is so consequential and serious and maybe the ideas that would have to be put forward will be unattract i have to some people. obviously we're in a position where new discipline is going to have to be imposed, people will be disappointed in the consequence so i think they're going to avoid it. >> they worship, said alan simpson, at the god of re-election. i would emphasize what mr. blankfein said there, the candidates seem in large part to be avoiding the consequences of fiscal cliff precisely because it is so consequential. do you see it that way? >> well, not exactly, tyler. let me ma

bernanke is the fiscal cliff.nce it's solved and they will pull back you'll see m2 which is rising at 8% in the last six weeks, 7% year-over-year. that will take off. you're destroying the purchasing power of the middle class. that's not the way to grow an economy. >> is michael pinto right? is there an inflation threat inside this number. he's referring to the gdp figure 2%. the prior quarter was 1.5%. >> since this recession ended we've only had three quarters in which nominal gdp has been 5% or better. i don't think the fed is creating inflation but i would agree with michael and i've been critical of the fed in many ways is not calibrated to the likely outcome of the economy and if growth does accelerate next year the fed will have a problem because i don't see them being able to unwind that portfolio as easy as they say they can. >> joe forget about unwinding the portfolio, charles evans inti made it about qe 4. qe3 was bouncing around -- the echos of qe3. >> evans said that the operation twist which is 45 bi

>> it does depend on the fiscal cliff. if we go over it, the likelihood of recession is all about inevitable. by definition a recession is a significant contraction. but we would likely get one. if we can come up with a grand gar begin and it is pro-growth and tax reform, then things look pretty good in 2013. we have manufacturing improving and domestic energy on fire to some degree and housing kicking in. i'd be optimistic once we get past the fiscal cliff issue. >> i'm more concerned about the monetary mountain. by that a mean a $3 trillion federal reserve balance sheet. at one point unlimited borrowing and buying of bonds and i know peter schiff and jim raised alarms about inflation out there. that is a concern that investors should be married about. >> coming up with a new term, monetary mountain. >> we're seeing this on the air. >> no, we're not concerned about the monetary mountain yet. really we believe in the adage, don't fight the market. we think that with easy money policy, the fed is on our side for the foresee

problem #one is the fiscal cliff. problem #2 is the debt limit increase that would come early next year and be pushed as late as march. problem #3 is the big problem, the fiscal path is unsustainable. it is dangerous to america. the single greatest threat facing the economy. we want to temporarily get past the fiscal cliff. we want to push the debt ceiling out and cleared the debt to deal with a big problem. the question that comes up all the time, if you do that, are they going to deal with the big problem? the answer has to be yes. it is inconceivable to me that if we went to august or perhaps 2013 and in the honeymoon time of a new administration do not make any real progress on the long-jump fiscal problems -- long-term fiscal problems, then the politics are so toxic there will not do -- deal with the problem and it will downgrade as. you do not need causing recessions to force us to move. we should just get past the fiscal cliff, extend the debt ceiling and get to the fundamentals in the grand bargain that will f

>> it's all about the fiscal cliff at this point. want to know, simpson and bowles which was given the stiff arm by the obama administration, are they warming up to them? they've been all three of them very frank, particularly simpson and bowles, do they think there's a chance of them being adopted into the process? can we avoid the fiscal cliff. >> being described by some as a ticking time bomb for stocks. that cnbc exclusive up next. we'll hear from lloyd blankfein, alan simpson and erskine bowles in just a few minutes when "halftime" comes back. n see that you're busy... but you were gonna help us crunch the numbers for accounts receivable today. i mean i know that this is important. well, both are important. let's be clear. they are but this is important too. [ man ] the receivables. [ male announcer ] michelin knows it's better for xerox to help manage their finance processing. so they can focus on keeping the world moving. with xerox, you're ready for real business. >>> all right. welcome back. as i said, we're just moments awa

the fiscal cliff. >> however, mr. secretary, the wu one thing that the business leaders came out with they are not coming down on either side. the problem with the president and the administration is they've not come up with a plan to attack entitlements and that's a real part of the fiscal cliff. >> you do not like the 20% cut in rates or a figure we can't do it, it doesn't add up but simpson/bowles is a 28% rate, and mine nus 35 is 28. you must be against simpson/bowles, then? >> i think the broad principles of simpson/bowles are exactly right. i believe as the president believes that the national security cuts in simpson-bowles are untenable. they're as bad as a sequester, they would do real damage to our national -- >> how about that? >> plugging the base is exactly the right thing to do and we should lower the rates as much as we can consistent with getting to that kind of balanced budget. i'd be prepared -- i'm not an elected -- i'm not an elected official. i'd be prepared to go as far as anybody

and second one is the real fiscal cliff. does the united states of america show that it has the bill and the capability to fix it fiscal problems. which i think can easily be done as you saw from things like the simpson-bowles report. so i'm not worried as much for jpmorgan as i am for american business and more than that is correct the american -- jobs and the average american. the fiscal cliff and another recession would be terrible for america. >> probably no arguing with that. jack, good morning to you. let's just look ahead first of all to this gdp number. how is that going to play in? >> well, everybody's looking for a number. 1.8, 1.9. it will be what i call a glimpse of the obvious. we are looking at an economy that is slow. we don't see much going on. worse yet, and you were going through what washington was reporting about the fiscal cliff and what the fallout can be. the other part of it is not only job losses, but the hiring that would normally take place is being suspended, also. so those that would normally be

problem number one is the fiscal cliff. problem number two would come early next year and would be put as late as march and then problem number three is the big problem. the big problem is the fiscal path is unsustainable and it is dangerous to america as the single biggest threat facing our economy. we shouldn't conflate those. we want to temporarily get past the fiscal cliff. we want to put the debt ceiling to clear the deck to deal with the big problem. the question that comes up all the time is to do that to kick the can down the road are they going to deal with the big problem. the answer to me has to be yes. the rating agency is one that has already downgraded the united states. it is inconceivable to me at least that if we want to say august or the full 2013 and in the honeymoon period of the new administration do not make any real progress on our long-term fiscal problems the rating agency won't say yeah, we are right even in the best political climate after an election everyone is trying to be nice they can't make

coyote falling off the cliff. gregg's and do you think there will be people selling stock in advance of january 1 -- >> do you think there will be people selling stock in advance of january 1 because they see this? >> a lot of the behavioral response depends on what is actually in people's minds. at the end of this year, if people believe will go off the fiscal put, it will induce people to do tax motivated things. if you're a lucky person who has a bunch of appreciated stock, maybe you bought apple a few years ago. maybe you would like to contribute to the tax policy center. [laughter] your current rate will go up from 15% to 20% next year. if your a highly compensated person, or you run a firm where employees are highly compensated, are you going to have incentive to pay your employees bonuses in this calendar year or next calendar year? it might make more sense to do with this year rather than next year. i do not want to oversell these things of great microeconomic import, but if people think that tax rates are

what remorse or fear or drove them to jump off the cliff who knows but obviously has something jamie diamond does and those are human emotions and he was also arrested stacey over. max yes this is the headline armed robber in demonic mask shoots customer in fleece store with money then falls off the cliff and breaks his back before having leg amputated a man shot a customer who followed him in jefferson county alabama police deputy said i would like to think that maybe he jumped off that cliff because every morse but i can't give him that much credit so two things max first of all my handy little phone here auto correct when i write jamie diamond it writes jamie dimon rewrites it to demon so i was thinking maybe that's what happened with this headline here about the demonic mask we had a jamie diamond mask and was just looting or maybe it was jamie diamond. before the robbery and then he escaped you broke his leg and then it was amputated that's correct so the analogy to the bankers on wall street or the city of london would be that they are stealing money from folks and we would wan

and fiscal cliff?imf has been warning for quite a while about the uncertainty risk associated with the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling, both of them. this uncertainty will increase as we get closer to year end and it is a concern. it is a concern because investors, households, people who want to buy a house, make an investment, hire people, would like to know what the environment is going to be like and what the fiscal deficit momentum and process will be in 2013 and more importantly, going forward so that they appreciate exactly what environment they will be in and what tax rates will apply and what loopholes will survive or not. >> which is why increasingly we hear executives managers of businesses say they are going to sit on the money because they don't know what's to come. do you think after the u.s. election we'll have more clarity? when will things loosen up? >> as soon as possible would be desirable is all i can say. >> my thanks to christine lagarde. up next, the man behind sam a m adams bre

we have economic problems right now with the fiscal cliff. talk to us about the fiscal cliff.s is going to be a worse fallout from the fiscal cliff than we saw in 2008. that's a big statement. >> whenever you raise taxes that's bad for the economy. mr. reagan cut taxes and things were good. mr. kennedy cut taxes and things were good. raising taxes has never made an economy grow. this is simple stuff. >> the president is talking about that he's cut taxes for small business. when we go off the fiscal cliff and taxes get higher, small businesses facing the highest increase since world war ii because they pay the ordinary income. >> and obama care. that raises taxes for obama care. even if they don't have other bush tax increases. we've got obama tax increases. all sorts of taxes coming. >> does anything loosen up after the election? i mean, hypothetically speaking, let's say the president wins, let's say romney wins. what's the difference in terms of loosening up? >> if you're mr. -- romney's friends, you'll do well after 2012. if you're mr. obama's friends, you'll do well. but y

and we're looking for cliffs where there ain't no cliffs. it's time to start focusing on where the breakthroughs truly are and what the consumer is really doing. only then can we start to make the money and not just the headlines and a lot of tepid air. donna in texas. donna? >> caller: yes, good afternoon, mr. cramer. >> how are you, donna? >> caller: i'm doing great. thank you for your book, "stay mad for life" that you sent me. >> you're terrific. thank you. >> caller: just a couple of questions. i've heard the rumor that texas instruments is selling their mobile chip business. and if this happens, i'd like to know what your opinion is of how this will affect ti and the future. and also what you think about ti's stock. >> well, you know, i saw that. i don't like to really comment on rumors that -- that's a business in texas instruments that has been in there forever. obviously texas instruments needs to shake things up. the stock has done nothing, so it's good. after the close, microchip technology which is a similar company cut its forec

. >> what about the fiscal cliff? we are obviously going off the fiscal cliff at the end of the year when the tax cuts expire. we will see a huge tax increase for 90% of the country. k, all income levels and the spending programs get cut, as well. that may lead to layoffs. are you expecting that to lead to a recession in 2013? >> no. no. i clearly -- we're not going to go off the fiscal cliff. i think the fiscal cliff is very significant. i don't think they will necessarily resolve it early on. it represents a breakdown of civility in some ways, in the way the budgets are passed, break from tradition, even if they get by this, i worry about what that breakdown in tradition will do in the future. hopefully, we won't commit economic suicide by actually putting in all of that tightening so quickly. i certainly care about the budget deficits, but, you know, that's not the way to do business. i'd like to see something like simpson bowls getting rid of a lot of deductions, keeping rates low, trying to cut some spending. bot

he is saying that the fiscal cliff for the u.s. is taking up time at the imf talk this morning and problems in spain. new breaking numbers out of what black rock is saying about the contraction in the united states economy if we go over the fiscal cliff. new numbers saying up to 5% contraction. that would wipe out 1 panth% gdp growth and contract the u.s. economy by 3% more. meaning $807 billion ticking out of the u.s. economy pretty much immediately. he is saying that yes, the markets are not pricing in at correction. they're not pricing in, the u.s. going over the fiscal cliff. they are expecting 11th hour rescue. the federal reserve is printing money and easing the way. he said it would undo the monetary money printing right now. we have to walk out for this. jittery market for next quarter. >> neil: this is why we call you wicked smart. all right. thank you very much. >> sure. >> neil: she is the "b" in fbn, the brains of fox business network. to put what she said in perspective, they try to talk about getting behind the market

to take us over the cliff. he's going to d.c. and demanding answers, hosting a live edition of cost of freedom one week from today. the countdown to catastrophe. he's been on this. and he's on next saturday, can't afford to miss it. but up here next, mitt wasn't hit in the first debate. is that helping him win na final dash for cash? we report, you decide. hat 401) you picked up back in the '80s. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 like a lot of things, the market has changed, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and your plans probably have too. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, we'll give you personalized recommendations tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 on how to reinvest that old 401(k). tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so talk to chuck tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and bring your old 401(k) tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 into the 21st century. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 rollover your old 401(k) tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to a schwab ira tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and you can receive up to $600. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 see schwab.com tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 for terms and conditions. >> hi, everyone

. >> susie: and is a deal in the works to solve the fiscal cliff? a look at president obama's surprise promise in last night's debate. >> tom: that and more tonight on nbr! for the second time in three sessions, u.s. stocks suffered a sharp sell-off. prices fell as weak financial results from corporate america fed fear about the global economy. at the closing bell, the dow shed 243 points, the nasdaq lost 26.5, the s&p dropped almost 21 points, sending markets to levels not seen since early september. the heavy selling came after several household names reported weak quarterly financial reports and lowered their expectations for the rest of the year. 3-m, dupont, and xerox were among those releasing disappointing results. erika miller reports worries about revenues have cast a shadow over the profit picture. >> reporter: yes, it's earnings season. but earnings are not the most important indicator this quarter. it's revenues-- how much money a company makes before expenses. >> profits can go down, profits can go up. sales, you want to see nice steady

entirely, the patent cliff. remember that one, that's where virtually every single big pharma company was supposed to be crushed as they lost patent protection on some of the most profitable drugs? we're right in the middle of the patent cliff. but some drug companies saw this problem coming years ago and they took action. and they bridged the crevasse, so that, well, now they're doing much better than ever. companies like sanofi, sny, the french pharmaceutical outlet with a bountiful yield of 3.8%, that i've been behind forever. sanofi realized the patent cliff would be a problem years ago, from 2008 through this year, the company was expected to lose patent protection on drugs that represented a quarter of its sales, close to half of its profits. but they didn't just sit there and take it. they moved aggressively into vaccines, animal health, diabetes, all growth areas, unfortunately diabetes being the greatest growth area in the world. last year they bought genzyme. we talk about orphan drug plays all the tim

let's talk about the fiscal cliff. the financial services forum is calling on lawmakers in washington to rise above and get a deal done before the nation heads over the fiscal cliff. aim mond eamon javers has the details. >> 15 of the nation's most you powerful wall street ceos, all signing the letter going to capitol hill and the white house. they want to see some kind of a deal by the end of the year. they're saying the u.s. economy is at stake here. take a listen to what else they said. they say the still fragile u.s. economy can not sustain and the american people do not deserve the impact of more gridlock in washington. we urge you to negotiate a bipartisan agreement as quickly as possible to prevent us from going over the fiscal cliff. take a look at some of the power players who signed this letter this morning. lloyd blankfein, jamie dimon james gorman, wribrian moneynih. and also michael corbat. so clearly a message being sent to washington. the question is whether washington can resolve any of this issues that

cliff-hanger, how will the fiscal cliff hang out? will congress strike a deal. >>> value shopping, the dow and s&p only a few percentage points from all-time highs. what stocks are still cheap and which ones are priced for perfection? we're getting the traders' best ideas to help you make money right now. we are trading all of the big movers today with joe terranova, josh brown, mike fur mi, and stephanie link. let's get right to it. barron's putting out a bullish market issue but we're looking for deals. only six stocks in the dow have pe ratios below 10. hewlett-packard, jpmorgan, caterpillar, chevron, cisco, and microsoft. josh brown, what's the best buy right now? >> i love chevron. we've been buyers since it broke 100 to the upside. here is a stock that's about half the size of exxonmobil, has similar growth profile, and a higher dividend. can't see why anyone wouldn't make cvx part of their portfolio. >> even though they were a little cautious last week. >> but this is the type of stock you buy on cautious quarterly guidance be

to take us over the cliff. he's going to d.c. and demanding answers, hosting a live edition of cost of freedom one week from today. the countdown to catastrophe. he's been on this. and he's on next saturday, can't afford to miss it. but up here next, mitt wasn't hit in the first debate. hit in the first debate. is that h [ geese honking ] think you've found every hazard out here today? think again. the spot you missed could be a killer. that spot on your skin could be skin cancer. fact is, if you're a man over 50, you're in a group most likely to develop skin cancer, including melanoma, the kind that kills one person every hour. one in five americans is likely to develop a form of skin cancer during their lifetime. that's why your best shot is to check for a spot. it's easy -- follow through and check your skin. yeah! it could be the save of a lifetime. go to spotskincancer.org to find out how. a message from the american academy of dermatology. right now, have a great day everybody. >> well, if cash is king, w

before the fiscal cliff. >> i think there will be a deal on the fiscal cliff and on -- remember, thet ceiling is there, too, before the end of the year, or lot of people are saying after the first of the year. but retroactive. i think that's very important. i think the fiscal cliff -- >> it's something you've been worried about. >> yeah. we've talked about it before. but i don't see any movement until the election. both obama and romney said they want to have some kind of deal before the end of the -- at some point. >> you think they'd take us to the brink though? congress has been known to do that. on a number of issues. >> there are ten senate seats open with the republicans leading in a couple of those seats. we could have a republican congress and a republican house. i'm predicting any elections, but if the republicans have both houses and a republican president, i think the problem gets solved faster. if obama wins and he's got to deal with a hostile congress, you could take it to the brink. >> turning you to europe. you just grimaced. it certainly is a mess. but from your persp

i did not hear anything about the fiscal cliff.s president, this is going to be the first item the new president or president obama is going to have to face when he's president. this is going to be the first thing that the whole congress is going to have to start facing on november 7th. there's not a dialogue about how are we going to address this tremendous issue. importantly, we have a government debt ceiling in february. if we don't address the fiscal cliff, we have the debt ceiling. ly tell you, i was at the imf last week for five days. obviously there's a little more comfort on what's going on in europe. obviously there's still many issues. all the side conversations we had was, what's the u.s. going to do? this is not just a worry for the u.s. this is a global worry and we need to address it. >> real quick, would you buy into europe right now, or is that still dysfunctional? >> i have been constructive on europe. i actually believe europe is on a path for stability. unfortunately, europe's fix is a seven-year fix. we're going

hundred million people jumping off the fiscal cliff break their leg and then have their legs amputated. well here you know in the u.k. they have a dead cat bounce you know you know growth like that in the u.k. here they report it not very intriguing is it because you strip out the one time for the olympics and the comparison with the queen's jubilee they renamed the. uncle ben's tower to the victoria tower something they renamed all the all the major money meant but this is all very anemic it's not really growing much at all the tories are engaging in a bit of winning waving suggesting that hey we're great we've engineered some kind of g.d.p. out of the double dip recession but in fact it's slow to school or on tick at best . max first of all is the queen elizabeth tower like the present queen like a folk queen latifa tower this is to bring in the punters come to the queen latifa tower and you can get all that wrapping a good time here in london behaving so we've been talking about bankers jumping off cliffs or being pushed perhaps who knows but here is an image from occupy goldman sac

. >> the looming fiscal cliff and election and on and on. here to help us in the closing bell exchange, stephanie link and steve leesman and peter sh ii shiff will join us as well. >> 2 3rs% is not enough to sustain, putting the unemployed back to work and taking idle factories and putting them back to work. the consumer seems to be hanging in there. the negatives seem to be a big part of it was defense spending, 0.7 of the 2% was defense spending, although that was a pay back for 3/4 of declines we've had. this needs to turn around to have a good recovery and have this economy firing on all cylinders, that's not been the case and business seems to be holding back. >> stephanie, you're blaming the uncertainty over the election, right? you say that's holding back decision-making and holding back hiring plans putting money to work? >> from the investor point of view the market does not like uncertainty. with this election being so close, i think there is definitely money on the sidelines and at least once we get an answer there, we can start t

i'm talking about the fiscal cliff.more than $600 billion of budget cuts and tax hikes for next year mandated to start taking effect as early as january 1st. now, what can happen, you ask? let's bring in christine romans. she's the host of "your bottom line" to answer that very question. christine? >> ail, i cannot confirm or deny that you're full of hot air, but i can tell you tax hikes will affect us all if nothing is done to avert this fiscal cliff. here's what we're looking@t at the beginning of the year. taxpayers will pay $3,000 more in taxes if they don't do anything. a new report from the center of regional analysis at george mason university predicts that some 277,000 federal employees will lose their jobs in the next 12 months. that's 14% of the federal work force. and 14 of the 17 economists surveyed by cnn money, ali, they predict the fiscal cliff will cause a new recession. interestingly, all 17 believe the economy won't plunge off the cliff becau they think congress will finally get its act together and do