get analysis from national security analyst clint watts of russia's military movement but first nbc's cal perry reporting live from lviv cal? >> reporter: shep, it was unnerving this morning as that air strike hit close to the city i'm in just about 60 miles from where i am, and less than 60 from the polish border that airfield in lutsk, this is the first time we've seen strikes in this city since the first time of the war. fierce fighting along the black sea, in the black sea city, as you said mariupol under a state of siege more than a week we have an updated death toll at least 1,500 civilians now confirmed dead there, though the fear is that number will be far higher president zelenskyy for his part undeterred, giving another national address posted just a few minutes ago. he spoke about the city which is between mariupol and kherson the local mayor there apparently abducted, kidnapped by russian forces as they moved into that city all of this raising fears where we're seeing a run on things like guns as this city prepares for a potential oncoming russian force. >> cal, you have n

we'll get analysis from clint watts of russia's military movements. first, nbc's cal perry reporting live from lviv cal. >> shep, it was unnerving this morning as that air strike hit close to the city i'm in just about 60 miles from where i am and less than 60 from the polish border that air field, this is the first time we have seen air strikes in this part of the country since the first day of the war. fierce fighting continuing along the black sea in those black sea cities, as you said, mariupol under a state of siege for over a week an updated death toll. at least 1500 civilians confirmed dead there, but the fear is that number will be far higher president zelenskyy undeterred giving another national address posted just a few minutes ago. he spoke about the city that is between mareiupol and kerr shaun the local mayor kidnapped by russian forces as they moved into the city. all of this raising fears in places where i am in the west where we're seeing a run on things like guns as the city prepares for a potential oncoming russian force >> you have

i want to go right to msnbc's clint watt.ican senators. >> kris, it is really interesting to watch these debates unfold, there is a few questions about it. one, you will see that the ukrainians and the polish, i think there is a second issue which is what is the lodgistic trail. what is needed? you would need weapons and armaments and pilots and you would need a stage. all of this is logistically intense. >> clint, don't we do this all the time? >> it comes down to what's the most banks for your bucks in terms of effectiveness. the russians have lost an enormous number of aircraft over this time. what they need those air strikes and that's what i want to point in this situation here. we were talking here in the north. this is the convoy from the northwest and now you are see them in the east. this was a uav air strike that happened in. i think you saw drones much easier to fly and air defense and antiaircraft and antitank weapons they have been using, they had remarkable success. the west can pursue and would not provoke an a

let me bring you in clint watts. it appears the goal is to crush and strangle and pulverize ukraine from all sides. that doesn't sound like a military strategy or strategy to successfully occupy a country of 44 million people but sure is leaving a lot of people dead. >> that's right, joy. lots going on but in different places you see different things. i think where cal is at, lviv where cal is at. this is the air field. you're seeing air strikes to the west. those air strikes are all about cutting off the supplies because the rest of the strategy is happening out here in the east. specifically, what we see is here in kyiv. if you looked last week, we were talking about the convey. the convey was breaking up but being reinforced. you saw them moving in and moving down establishing what we call battle positions. these positions are essentially designed to cut off supplies coming in from the west and ultimately from the south. bigger picture, though, i think what we're looking at is here in the north. this is the strate

let me move to clint watts. you're doing something a little different for us today, and that is trying to help explain what the russians are up to, what is this military strategy, and how has it changed over the last week? >> that's right, chuck. we've heard a lot about russian failures and difficulties, but overnight we're really seeing what happens when russia has successes. what we see here is a map of the south. remember, in 2014 the russians took crimea and the one axis of advance they've had into ukraine has been from the south where they've been successful. right now you see forces that have broken through, are on this axis here, running along the coast of the sea of azov. they are now seized mariupol in such a way it will be absolutely devastating in the comes days. we're talking large indirect fires, artillery, missiles, munitions, devastating this town, total welfare. you talked about kherson. kherson is important because it is the land bridge. it's an essential bridge that connects crimea to the rest

clint watts, msnbc national security analyst, author of "messing with the enemy: you are is vifg in a hackers, russians, terrorists and fake news." the civil resistance in ukraine is fierce. up next a member of parliament who stayed behind in kyiv to fight for her country. it's still the eat fresh refresh™ so subway's upping their avocado game. (refresh!) we're talking just two great ingredients. perfectly ripe, hand-scooped hass avocados and a touch of sea salt. two great ingredients to make one very hungry announcer. subway keeps refreshing and refreshing and re- welcome to allstate. here, we have another reason for you to slow down. subway keeps refreshing safe drivers save 40% with drivewise. ♪ "slow ride" by foghat ♪ call a local agent or 1-888-allstate for a quote today. >>> as russian forces began to attack the area surrounding kyiv earlier this week, civilian areas were not spared. my guest lives less than a are the quaer mile away from this apartment building damaged in an attack. instead of fleeing, lisa yasko and other ukrainians stayed behind to fight for their country and

for all of the latest on russia's military movements now inside ukraine, on a brink and clint watts, search fellow at the research institute, and of course msnbc national security analyst was at the board for us. clint, walk us through your read out of the situation in which you're seeing play out in ukraine, militarily? >> thanks for having me, ayman. let's talk about today. the first thing you want to talk about is what's going on inside -- zaporizhzhia. right now, at the nuclear power pry, and everyone is worried about this fire fight. earlier, it looked like some of the twitter footage there was some sort of firefight going on there. you could see bullets moving off of the buildings, very dangerous situation, and i think everyone is trying to figure out, is this power plant in jeopardy? is the nuclear fuel, essentially, secure, and what's the danger and risk their? everyone should probably be asking, why does russia keep focusing on nuclear power plants. remember, with talking them about them retaking chernobyl late last week. there's a few reasons. one, they wanna be able to cont

clint watts has been checking russia's latest movements.st night because obviously a terrifying scenario that unfolded there. fortunately, we didn't have a leak of any radiation, but what did we see? >> thavrt, chris. you might have seen video from social media. you saw lots of firefights essentially happening up and around these cooling towers. luckily, all reports seem to say that everything is safe in terms of any nuclear issues. this brings up, why does russia want these nuclear power plants? threefold. one is to control the electricity. they're going to siege warfare and a lot of cities trying to drain the population centers. second, it's psychological. they want to inflict fear in the west and fear at home. the best way to do that is to take one of these facilities and really use disinformation to create the perception that it's ukraine doing this, not russia. the third part is logistics. what you see here is a rail head. people don't often realize that every nuclear facility has a rail held for moving logistics in and out. if you are

and i have a national security analyst clint watts as well as former commanding general of u.s. army troops in europe, retired lieutenant general ben hodges, now the chair at the center for european policy analysis. keir, in turkey, we'll discuss later whether russia is doing this out of necessity because they can't keep up their push towards kyiv, but it seems as if -- are we to read this as some sort of progress? >> reporter: well, both sides seem to think there is some progress. i would say this, you know, chuck -- any peace deal in any conflict is born out of necessity unless one side kind of wins outright if you like, inevitably there are compromises. the big question i think tonight is whether the compromises that were talked about in the building behind me here for just four hours today -- they came prepared and they walked out with proposals, but whether those compromises are going to be agreed to. one thing i would point to as a hurdle, the chief negotiator from the russian side talked about taking the proposals back to president putin, so clearly president putin will h

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joining us, national security analyst for nbc news, and msnbc, clint watts, clint, just first of all,it, that doesn't seem like a good sign if you're trying to run a war against another country. >> it's definitely not, mika. i think a few key things. in and around kyiv, they've essentially pulled out a lot of the forces in northwest kyiv and are trying to consolidate and reorganize. up near the belarusian border and chernobyl. then on the other side, the eastern side of kyiv, which you see is essentially bravarian area, they took a couple of weeks ago. around kharkiv and sumy, the ukrainian military is taking back, losing others, you can see the russians focusing their combat power there, and then mariupol. that's been the story over the last week, the siege of mariupol continues. you see russia focusing there because they need to take that city so they can relieve combat power. the last part, in the south, kherson is a place we talked about in week one and two being taken by the russians. now, again, they find resistance from ukrainian protesters essentially in the rear area. they ca

let's go to national security analyst for nbc news and msnbc, clint watts.york city. tough getting that checked on the shuttle, but you got it down here. great to see you. >> it is collapsible. >> fantastic. >> all right. where are we, clint? >> quick update today. week one, we saw the failure of the hail mary strategy of the invasion. week two, we saw the shift to conventional invasion. that's really what we're looking at today. i want to start off with what you're seeing is these three axes of advance. from sumy to the east and to the northeast of the city, it's a new corridor. the convoy we were talking about last week, we are seeing signs it is moving to the west. it takes us to the big picture in town. when you go to kyiv and look at what's going on here, essentially, they'd be facing off against multiple fronts if this comes through. here, in irpin, where we've seen richard engel the last couple days, major humanitarian issues. lots of people evacuating. i'd expect to the west, you'll see the ukrainian army will have to defend on multiple fronts which

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let's go over to the map, to the big board and talk to clint watts. he is there for us. former infantry man, now a distinguished research fellow at the foreign policy research institute. also a national security an list for nbc news and msnbc. clint, let's start with the nuclear power plant. show us where it is and the significance of its location. >> that's right, joe. zaporizhzhia is what we were talking about last night. a few key notes about it. we saw some video you might have seen out on social media of a fire fight in and around those reactors. what did the russians want to do? they want to take control of the entire energy sector because they can do it when they're doing siege warfare like we're seeing in many cities around ukraine to take control of the power services. the more important point might be psychological, injecting fear into audiences. while we're trying to get to the bottom of what happened here last night, is it safe, i would bet russian disinformation broadcast back at home is saying this is the ukrainian's possibly using some sort of nuclear mater

joining me now, msnbc national security analyst clint watts, distinguished fellow at the foreign policy of "messing with the enemy." clint, thank you very much for coming to "the sunday show," and helping the viewers understand the lay of the land. literally. what's going on in ukraine, that deadly air strike targeting the military base in eastern ukraine was about 12 miles from the polish border. talk about the significance of that attack. >> well, jonathan, i think it's what we can expect more of, because the russians know as long as ukrainian military and humanitarian populations, civilian populations, continue to be resupplied, they will not be able to defeat the ukrainian military. increasingly you'll see this. part because of west has been very vocal about their support for what's going on in ukraine but will push russia to try to attack the supply lines from the polish border into the center of kyiv. the warfare we've seen russians undertaking, particularly in march pall and also what they're trying to do in kyiv, it will not work with a sustained supply line from poland. i expec

. >> joining us now, former fbi special agent and msnbc contributor, our friend clint watts. the chemical weapons. what are your biggest concerns of russia, do you think russia could use them, and if so, what could that look like? what are we talking about here? >> in short, yes, jonathan, they're doing a pattern that we saw in syria, i think it is important to remember that there is some context for this, there is an historical pattern for it and the way it sort of runs is you will see russia and ally, in the case of syria with the assad regime, laying down a massive volume of content alleging the other side are doing what they are ultimately seeking or have already done and this is a way to create this perception bubble, essentially a distortion. there are two audiences for this. one, inside russia, they will play this as the ukrainians are using chemical attacks as a justification essentially for what they're doing. but outside russia, they will try and muddy the waters. remember, use of chemical weapons would be a war crime. it would be a humanitarian disaster. and immens

joining us it is clint watts, distinguished research fellow at the foreign policy research institute.r ukraine look like, and how could it be carried out? >> so, jose, no-fly zone over ukraine would mean this entire area all the way up to the board errs and all the way around the country, nato aircraft would have to enforce that. any military aircraft that could be used to essentially attack civilians would be interdicted. that means any russian aircraft that entered but what would also likely happen and that's why you're hearing so much father unless they can electronically jam, for example, all the air defense systems along here and along this border area, well, they might have to interdict them because they would essentially have anti-aircraft pointing our aiming or lasing targets at them or possibly shooting at them so it would almost always provoke a war in a situation like that. so you might remember in iraq we did have that, but that's a place where we could control the airspace. >> yeah. clint, i mean, are there variables, differences maybe that could be carried out? so you do

they have done quite a bit better in the south, the russians have as compared to the north. >> clint watts. thank you so much. and tom don lan,s the former national security adviser to president obama. first to you, a lot of confusion because the u.s. intelligence was spot on as to how they were going to come in and what the goals are, what clearly have been the goals but confusion about what went wrong for the russians from the north. but from the south they have been very effective and what has been clear throughout is that they have just been brutal in attacking civilian populations. >> a number of things, one, that's true, the russian military has had a terrible time of this i think for a number of reasons, andrea. tremendous resistance by the ukrainian armed forces, also the ukrainian people. second, lack of planning, and operational issues, all manner of operational issues coming into the battle. third, we get constant reports about morale issues and not preparing the force for what it was being asked to undertake here. you know, it's interesting, you know, putin himself is increasin

clint watts, it is always a pleasure. thank you for your analysis. >>> how president trump and his cronies worked to undermine ukraine years before this invasion. it is important context for understanding where we are now. >>> plus, the warning from one ukrainian mp, direct conflict between nato countries and russia might be unavoidable. e. to help prevent bleeding gums, try saying hello gumwash with parodontax active gum health. it kills 99% of plaque bacteria and forms an antibacterial shield. try parodontax active gum health mouthwash. every business is on a journey. and along the ride, you'll find many challenges. ♪ your dell technologies advisor can help you find the right tech solutions. so you can stop at nothing for your customers. ♪ everybody dance now ♪ ♪♪ ♪ everybody dance now ♪ get 5 boneless wings for $1. with any handcrafted burger. only at applebee's this is the planning effect. nina's got a lot of ideas for the future... a lot of ideas. so when she wants a plan based on what matters most, she turns to fide

let me bring in courtney kube and clint watts. courtney, let me start with the military aid and the logistics of getting there. i know the pentagon is careful not to share how this is done, sources and methods, those things. is it getting more difficult, or is the russian lack of advancement continuing to make the flow pretty smooth? >> reporter: so, we don't have any indicationings it's getting more difficult. the met we can point to is there are no reports that the russians have been attacking any of these supply shipments that have been coming into the country. and youp ear absolutely right, chuck. the u.s. is extremely guarded when talking about how they're getting this equipment in only telling us that they are able to get it to the ukrainian military, who is able to distribute it to the locations where it's needed. so at this point, you know, this has been -- it's been a pretty herculean effort just to get this enormous amount of equipment and support to ukraine, to get to this military. it's moving a lot faster than we usua

msnbc national security analyst clint watts is standing by at the map for latest on the troop movements hope for a break in what appears to be just an ongoing deadly series of confrontations? >> chris, it seems like it will be a much longer war than vladimir putin thought. week one we talked about russian setbacks in the north. week two, we saw progress points for the russian military in the south. they went and essentially built a land bridge across the sea of azov. we talked about that on friday. it connects with forces around donbas. here we saw them advance out to kherson and further at the end of last week. they cross two water obstacles, two rivers, and if they are able they can advance to this point here, which is in moldova. important to kind of note you'll hear more about this, there is a separatist territory here. it's ethnic russians. putin oftentimes talks about unifying all russians under his banner. and this area here essentially stretching all the way across and down to december is a, which is really the economic heart of ukraine, is often called new russia. it's historic

clint watts is at the big board and kelly cobiella is with us. chief foreign correspondent richard engel is inside kyiv. >> reporter: aid stations have been set up to evaluate victims. they say the vast majority of the casualties they're seeing are civilians. scorched earth, bombing now every day apartment buildings in kyiv. on the edge of kyiv this morning in a hospital in brovary, katerina, who sold yogurt and milk at the market, said she came out of her basement for a moment to wash the blankets when a missile exploded. it blew out her leg and sent shrapnel through her back, piercing her lung. before i had a house, a job and now i'm disabled and have no home, she asked and began to curse russia. one city is bearing the brunt, mariupol in the south. many of the images from a hospital here are too graphic to broadcast. every selling means torn apart hands and legs and falling bodies. it's unpleasant but you have to listen, she says. now we can't bury the bodies. we can't get people with wounds and broken bones out of their houses because they're

. >> clint watts is tracking russia's military movements for us, a former u.s. litary officer and now distinguished foreign research fellow at the foreign policy research institute and nbc news national security analyst clint, the pentagon says russia is still days behind where they thought they would be at this point. did the troop movement show the same and where specifically are russian troops stalling? >> yeah, shepard, really interesting to watch here is the convoy we're talking about completely bogged down and northwest part of kyiv, essentially called irpin, you've seen again russian armor advancing without using infantry and support and the ukrainian army just decimating them with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, essentially moving around and hitting the convoy from the rear or blowing up a bridge this makes it impossible for logistics to make it in. separately though you see the russian military advancing they're trying to essentially build a lodgment here around kyiv to surround it and do a siege. very similar to what they're doing in mariupol now.

. >>> clint watts is tracking russia's military movements. clint served as a u.s. infantry officer and now a distinguished research fellow at the foreign policy fellow research institute and nbc news national security analyst. clint, the attacks are moving farther west, closer to poland. >> that's right, shepard if you look at the attacks, the air strikes over the weekend, it's very clear the russians are trying to push air strikes further out to the west because they really want to go out to the supply lines coming in from poland that air base here, many casualties and a lot dead but quite scary because these missile launches come from afar and so close, ten miles or so to the polish border. the real question is what if they slide across the border, what would nato do in response >> based on the russian movements, what does the week ahead look like to you in terms of fighting? >> there's really only three areas to look at at this point, shepard. here in kyiv we focus a lot on it, we talked a lot about the convoy over the last two weeks it's been bogged down. what

this is something to watch for into next week. >> clint watts, this is great.al, if you will, for us. thanks very much. >>> coming up, vice president harris accuses russia of committing atrocities one day after a deadly attack on a hospital in mariupol. we'll speak with the deputy mayor of mariupol about what his people need right now. (vo) right now, the big switch is happening across the country. small businesses are fed up with big bills and 5g maps that are mostly gaps— they're switching to t-mobile for business and getting more 5g bars in more places. save over $1,000 when you switch to our ultimate business plan... ...for the lowest price ever. plus, choose from the latest 5g smartphones— like a free samsung galaxy s22. so switch to the network that helps your business do more for less—join the big switch to t-mobile for business today. welcome to allstate. ♪ "slow ride" by foghat ♪ so switch to the network that helps your business do more ♪ ♪ here, we know you have a few reasons to slow down. ♪ ♪ but we've got one more. safe drivers save 40% with drivewi

took back the territory in the surrounding-year after a big battle just days ago nbc news analyst clint watts now to break down where the ukranians are gaining ground clint? >> let's start here looking in the north. in and around "qwest sound off live," this is where we heard reports yesterday that the russians were taking about withdrawing forces from kyiv there's a lot of confusion about this, and it's hard to say what they are really do, but let's just recap here the ukranian military has taken back some ground this has really put the russians in defensive positions along here there's several different jaire knows that might play out. first in, russian troops are moving up here to bell are you, essentially going to belarus they sob resupplying and may show up back on the battle fields here saw what the russians may be tried to do is called a retrograde operation, essentially maintaining some offense and fighting here to allow other elements to essentially retreat and move towards belarus without taking more losses. the bigger pick two though, is one that we're talking about here in the eas

putin spoke by phone so what territory has russia already seized, and what are they eyeing next clint watts is tracking russia's military movements for us. clint served as a u.s. army infantry officer he's now a distinguished research fellow at the foreign policy research institute and an nbc national security analyst. clint, thanks so much. let's focus on kyiv if we could. what's your assessment of how the russians are going to try to take the capital >> what's really interesting about kyiv is we have talked a lot, and you have heard a lot about this convoy. this convoy is stacked up, some people estimate up to 17 miles it's incredible. it really is not what we would tend to think of as a west point graduate when i learned about soviet invasion techniques, this is not it. look at these vehicles they're stacking bumper to bumper down the highway meaning they're not worried about air power knocking them out. ukrainians did do successful strikes again them today more curious is what are they going to do in kyiv? they're destroying itwith fire using everything from rocket artillery, they're tr

gabe gutierrez is in the western ukrainian city of lviv, nbc national security analyst, clint watts, former army infantry officer is at the big board for us. gentleman stand by. cara, let's start with you, explain this phone call between president biden and his chinese counter part. what more do we know about what's come out of that phone call, and do we know if it's still ongoing? >> we just got word from the white house that the call ended at 10:53. if you recall the white house said the call started at 9:03, so that's roughly almost two hours that the president biden and president xi spoke via video conference, and we don't have a readout from the white house, at least not in the last ten seconds that i've checked my phone that we are expecting one to come from the white house at any time. you mentioned that the chinese have read out the conversation themselves. what we know going into this call is that president biden was looking to use it to try to further isolate russia, white house officials said that he was going to assess where president xi stood in terms of russia's actions

i want to bring in clint watts, former fbi special agent.that you've been tracking russian troop movements as well. tell us what you are seeing. >> i think that this is a natural movement for russia, which just could never establish that encircle. that they sought out to do in the first month. there are two corridors. the one from belarus into kyiv and the second one from chernihiv. and that where they have taken back some of the turfs, they never united. and so the supply lines become very difficult. in belarus, it is very difficult for russia to coordinate all of the logistics through belarusian border through to kyiv. so it is exceedingly difficult. and those units just aren't very good. they have stacked up -- this is the convoy that everyone discussed in the first weeks, they never really got off the ground. separately in the east, they are in a hard-fought battle in donbas really trying to pin down and link their forces together, to do that they need more troops overtime. they have taken such losses. and later in the week, this is when

coverage continues right now with the "new york times" pentagon correspondent helene cooper and clint watts. he's been doing special coverage for us based on his knowledge of the region. clint, let's start with you. we've heard news about poland sending planes to ukraine and how that might work. walk us through it at your reporting station there. >> so, ari, what you see is the ukrainians actually have mig fighters, old soviet era mig fighters. the russians, and you will see this oftentimes on social media videos, the su aircraft doing bombing runs in poland. they're essentially going to try to trade, give off some of their mig-29s because the ukrainian pilots are trained on it, deliver them, and then the u.s. would backstop poland. the question is how putin will react to this. is that really a red line for him over time when he sees these resupplies coming in? it's also a measure short of a no-fly zone, which has been intense debate, would be seen as an act of war. bigger picture, though, i think what's super important to look at is what the current situation is. the first week, we were ta

clint watts, thank you so much.let's take a moment to honor ukrainian president, sullen ski. if you don't know much about him, listen up. the 44 year old comedian turned politician is being praised around the world right now for his leadership and courage. and for refusing to leave his country. zelenskyy was born to a jewish family in central ukraine. he went from playing an unlikely president on a popular tv show, an actor, to getting elected ukraine's real president with 73% of the votes. in over the weekend, another part of his unconventional background went viral. the part where he won ukraine's version of dancing with the stars in 2006. take a look. >> ♪ ♪ ♪ >> zelenskyy. the guy who won the election. he won by saying, you don't need experience to be president. you just need to be a decent human being. so with that, we see goodnight on a good note. and my sincere thanks to you for giving me this opportunity. i am nervous and grateful for your patience and for your decency. that is our broadcast for this monday

nbc's clint watts is tracking their movements. >> shep, lots to talk about tonight. but not where we have been focused on before. we were talking about kyiv but i think the real areas to look at are to the east. the pentagon briefing we heard from today, the russians are having lots of trouble and we've seen it here a new dimension in the war these convoys we were talking about last week, logistics tied up in kyiv, tanks are stuck in the mud. they are losing their armor momentum and separately, in many of these places, kharkiv, an intense battle that's played out for quite some time, you still see ukrainian counteroffenses taking back that land and blocking russian forces from encircling it separately, down here to the south is where we saw some russian success in advancing here, land bridge out of crimea and trying to connect with the forces here in donbas. they are encircling mariupol and i think that's the bigger story, which is the south. putin will ultimately have to make a decision about where he wants to focus he's fighting in the north, the east, and the sout

let's continue this discussion with clint watts, he is an nbc national security analyst and author ofessing with the enemy, surviving in a social media world of hackers, terrorists, russians and fake news. clint, it is great to see you as always. let's start with some of the new reporting that we have just gotten at nbc news within the last hour or so. senior defense official telling us that he believes that roughly 95% of russian forces have now been committed into the ukraine. so the forces that were stationed in neighboring countries and the outside have now been deployed to the ukraine. and we have that here on the map if you just take a look at it. it shows the russian troop locations on the southern border. what's, from a military perspective, can you tell us about the strategy here? what is the military strategy here that is emerging 12 days into this? >> amen, what you are seeing is in the south, a very different situation from what you are seeing in the north. remember creamy and 2014 was taken successfully. and those military units, at least in my opinion, much stronger and

jacob soboroff, clint watts, colonel brendan kearney, appreciate all of you.much more news from warsaw in a minute. but my friend and colleague, chris jansing, is holding down the fort in new york with some of the biggest stories happening back at home. hi, chris. >> hi, kristen. thank you so much. >>> coming up, how soon could judge ketanji brown jackson get confirmed to the supreme court? and what the hearings told us about joe biden's agenda and the mitt terms. thanks, dad. that's right, robert. and it's never too early to learn you could save with america's number one motorcycle insurer. that's right, jamie. but it's not just about savings. it's about the friends we make along the way. you said it, flo. and don't forget to floss before you brush. your gums will thank you. -that's right, dr. gary. -jamie? sorry, i had another thought so i got back in line. what was it? [ sighs ] i can't remember. power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools, and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the

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clint watts, nbc national security analyst. nearly 3.4 million people, just regular people, like you and, me have been forced to leave behind the only life that they have known in ukraine and find somewhere else to live. we've got an update on the staggering refugee crisis. and, putin is not the only problem. russia is just one of about 50 countries ruled by a dictator. we are taking a look at the world's authoritarian problem. and then, right after the break, we are back with our friend -- he's been reporting. this is a special edition of velshi, and live in budapest, hungary. hungary. to feed your dog real food. it's real meat and veggies. freshly-made. developed with vets. delivered right to your door. that's why dog lovers are choosing the farmer's dog. a smarter, healthier pet food. delivered. visit tryfarmersdog.com and get 50% off your first box of food. i may have moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis. visit tryfarmersdog.com or psoriatic arthritis. but we are so much more. we're team players and artists. designers an

joining me now is former fbi special agent, clint watts along with barry mccaffrey.sian troops are. they've made a lot of progress in the south, but they're still stalled not north. so explain this all to me. >> week one, we were talking essentially about russian failures, but in the last 72 hours, we're starting to see russian successes. crimea taken in 2014 by the russias. this force has moved out and created a land bridge that you see connecting them with the breakaway republics that the russians already control. now they are laying siege to this town mariupol. this is total war. this is cutting off electricity, endless bombardments. i think it forecasts what we might see if there was a siege of kyiv. separately, i want to take a step back, though, and focus on the new developments in the last few hours and the past day. one, here in kyiv, you're seeing them advance out and move to here, kherson. kherson has a critical bridge that the russians were able to take and open up a canal that was shut out of after 2014 that can now provide fresh water into crimea. they m

clint watts back at the board. with the increasing frustration from russia, vladimir putin, he is firing officers, generals, cracking down at dissent back at home, what is his next move now as he sees his conventional forces are not getting the job done, at least at the rate he expected them to what is the fear about his potential next move and where this goes? >> so several key things, i think, willie. over the last couple of days we've seen, the first is in and around the axes around kyiv, you're seeing them dig in forces, essentially putting out mine fields. if eyou're advancing, you don't put out a defensive position it suggests they're bog doged dn in kyiv. i don't like the term stalemate, separately in this region, there are intense battles going on if the russians, and we should take note of this, they have a lot of combat power. if they link these forces together, they can get donbas, the eastern portion. in the south, they cannot hold kherson. kherson is the town they took initially. that's the report we s

. >> we have clint watts, a former infantryman, now a distinguished fellow at the research institute and national security analyst for nbc news and msnbc. clint, a line that really sticks out to me, i think i read it in "the times" a couple of days ago, was the ukrainian fighter saying, you know what? it is about even when we are fighting out here in the countryside, when we are fighting in the hills, when we are fighting in the open, but when we go into the cities that's when it becomes easy. i am struck by some pictures i have seen of entire streets just filled with gutted russian tanks and russian equipment that went into an ambush and a siege. so ukrainians doing very well in pushing back, but this truly is -- if you look at the map, this truly is -- this is a story of two wars. one in the northern part where the russians are bogged down and doing terribly, and one in the southern part of the country where the russians seem to be far better and are expanding and consolidating, making gains every morning. >> that's right, joe. i kind of want to talk about where we left off last wee

we will talk to clint watts at the board about that in a minute. the question now is about the jets. can ukraine fight russia in the area. we will get to that in a minute. secretary of state antony blinken is in estonia wrapping up his trip to europe where he has been meeting with leaders to unite against russia. traveling with the secretary is nbc news correspondent josh lederman. good morning, josh. what are you hearing there? >> reporter: willie, we heard from secretary of state antony blinken this morning after he arrived in estonia, the last of the stops on his trip that brought him to all baltic allies. blinken pointing out as he was meeting with estonia's foreign minister it was only two weeks ago he met with the same estonian diplomat in d.c. saying at time they knew it was probable, that they were preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best. they hope that they have prepared adequately and now the mission is really two fold, to make sure they are doing everything they can to support ukraine's efforts to repel russia including all of t

let's go to national security analyst for nbc news and msnbc, clint watts at the big board.day, and what has evolved over the weekend that people should know about. >> mika, it seems like russia has gone to phase two of their invasion. they have taken places. now they're trying to secure them, and essentially create some attrition over time. the bad news, strikes in lviv this week, and down here in mykolaiv using cruise missiles, and hyper sonic missiles, hard for air defense systems to interdict them, and they have killed several batches of ukrainian soldiers and civilians in different locations. separately, i think there's three things to watch. here in kyiv, last week i would have thought they would be trying to encircle but they have been stuck in many places here, meeting stiff resistance, and instead, seeing an encirclement, you're seeing them in defensive positions. the belief is they're going to try and bring artillery, closer in range so they can hit key targets in kyiv center. at this point they're firing long range missiles in. also, this access here, bravari, thi

let's go to national security analyst for nbc news and msnbc, clint watts. he is at the big board. the russian attacks have ben over the past 24 hours for this very large force. not big enough to hold ukraine, but big enough to cause big problems, but a force for the most part that's been bogged down. >> yes, joe. it has been very interesting watching through the weekend what has happened. it is a slowdown of the russian military. what we've seen are these airstrikes to the west, that's that military base that was struck with the missile. lots of casualties. this was always probably going to happen. the russians have to cut off the supply lines coming into ukraine or they will never, ever be able to take the ukrainian military. there's some doubt whether they can do that. here in the north, this is kyiv, just watching this, this is the convoy from last week. they're trying to splinter out here to the west. you see them in and around irpin. that's where richard engel was a lot of last week. they can't get really a bridge head. there's a water obstacle that goes through this area. sep

army infantry officer clint watts. he's an nbc news national security analyst. good morning. thank you so much for being here on a busy morning. let's dive right in and talk about the cease-fire. there are already reports that russia has violated the cease-fire. how much confidence do you have in it and how can it be communicated to people who are under siege? >> kristen, i think there's one thing you can always count on, if there's rules, russia will break them. the idea of the and creating this humanitarian corridor is good in general. we get the people out of there. let's get back to why that happened. a russian invasion, and they're doing mass siege warfare right now. if they can conduct this removal of humans out of these population centers, okay, now we have a refugee problem somewhere else. if you remember in those cities, essentially you will be viewed as that is a combatant. this creates a new dimension in terms of human rights and what we're seeing unfold in the population centers. and i'm not sure even if we have this humanitarian corridor, that we can actually tru

. >> clint watts who has been studying this for us. clint, thank you. >>> joining me now from brussels is nato secretary general jens stoltenberg. he will be joining president biden on tuesday for an in-person meeting. thank you for coming on "meet the press." >> thank you for having me. >> how serious have these talks become and what role is turkey playing? you heard my report from my colleague richard engel that they're taking a bigger role in this. what can you tell us, sir? >> first of all, we have to remember that this is president putin's war, and he can end it now, and that's what we all call on russia to do. and, of course, we welcome all efforts to negotiate a peaceful solution. president erdogan in turkey is doing some work trying to facilitate talks between russia and ukraine. but it's far too early to say whether these talks can lead to any concrete outcome. >> we've seen an increased targeting of civilians, mr. secretary general, in ukraine. how long can nato stand by and watch russia target civilians without finding a way